## Join The Forum Cult.

For your simulated organized crime needs.

Moderators: jestingrabbit, Moderators General, Prelates

zabing12
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2015 8:33 am UTC

### Join The Forum Cult.

Join the Forum Cult. All you have to do is post in this thread to join the cult, even if you didn't want to join it. You could write a conversation starter to trick someone into posting on this thread. Then they become cult. The goal is to get as many cult members as possible.
Cult Members: 7
1. SDK
2. Whizbang
3. mpolo
4. SPACKlick
5. Neil_Boekend
6. zabing12
7. That one mod who locked this thread on this other forum.
8. Moody7277
Hey, now that I'm done playing a joke, Since I wasn't actually serious, how do you calculate the chances of winning a game?
Last edited by zabing12 on Mon Apr 27, 2015 6:46 pm UTC, edited 6 times in total.

SDK
Posts: 689
Joined: Thu May 22, 2014 7:40 pm UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

Comparison to past games. A 5 player 1-mafia setup is 50/50. A 9 player 2-mafia setup is 50/50. An 11 or 12 player 3-mafia setup is 50/50. Those are vanilla setups, so add some power roles for balance if you deviate from that. The rest is just guessing and making sure that every faction has a reasonable chance of winning.
The biggest number (63 quintillion googols in debt)

Whizbang
The Best Reporter
Posts: 2238
Joined: Fri Apr 06, 2012 7:50 pm UTC
Location: New Hampshire, USA

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

zabing12 wrote:how do you calculate the chances of winning a game?

SPACKlick
Posts: 195
Joined: Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:25 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

SDK wrote:Comparison to past games. A 5 player 1-mafia setup is 50/50. A 9 player 2-mafia setup is 50/50. An 11 or 12 player 3-mafia setup is 50/50. Those are vanilla setups, so add some power roles for balance if you deviate from that. The rest is just guessing and making sure that every faction has a reasonable chance of winning.

I find that you can do a pretty good calculation by first off assuming random voting, random non mafia NK, Random protections etc. Then there's a fudge factor because more days=more town information so for each town member per day there's a 2-3% swing higher for watchers/trackers/cops etc. Lower for naive cops even lower for paranoid or insane cops(until they get their intel flipped). For games up to about 11 it tends to work over that the fudge factors are a little off.

Past game performance is fine as long as it is recent performance among the same cult of players. However comparing mafiascum stats to TT stats to XKCD stats the numbers are significantly different for the power roles and slightly different for pure numbers.

Neil_Boekend
Posts: 3220
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2013 6:35 am UTC
Location: Yes.

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

I like corrupt a wish because it allows me to let out my darker side.
Mikeski wrote:A "What If" update is never late. Nor is it early. It is posted precisely when it should be.

patzer's signature wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:I'm being quoted too much!

he/him/his

zabing12
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2015 8:33 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

Thanks guys, That really helped me. Is there really a ratio to the number of mafia and the number of town? I was thinking like 3 to one, what do you guys think?

SPACKlick
Posts: 195
Joined: Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:25 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

zabing12 wrote:Thanks guys, That really helped me. Is there really a ratio to the number of mafia and the number of town? I was thinking like 3 to one, what do you guys think?

It's not a linear scale. Larger groups of town are more effective and larger groups of mafia have more scope for buddy tells.

SDK
Posts: 689
Joined: Thu May 22, 2014 7:40 pm UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

3:1 is a good baseline, but you have to make sure that one faction won't lose too quickly. For example, a four person game with one mafia would be bad - town loses after just one mislynch. On the flip side, in a large game, that might result in too few mafia. For example, a 20 player game with a 3:1 ratio would need 5 mafia, right? However, that allows the town four mislynches, losing on the fifth, which should make the game favour town quite heavily.

My rule of thumb is to allow the town two mislynches, losing on the third, but that only works for medium sized games, 16 players and under (with 16 players, that's 5 mafia, which probably favours the mafia slightly). I don't have much experience with games larger than that, but I suspect that anything more than three allowed mislynches should favour the town, so that's 6 mafia for a 20 player game. The spoiler below is where I'd start with any game, but power roles quickly mess this up.

Spoiler:
Players - Number of Mafia
5 - 1
6 - 1
7 - 2
8 - 2
9 - 2
10 - 2
11 - 3
12 - 3
13 - 3/4
14 - 4
15 - 4/5
16 - 5
17 - 5
18 - 5/6
19 - 5/6
20 - 6
The biggest number (63 quintillion googols in debt)

mpolo
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:24 pm UTC
Location: Germany

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

Often, as the mafia numbers go up, you will end up splitting the anti-town into mafia, SK, werewolves etc. That can allow a few more bad guys without hosing town, as well, upping the net bad guy chances, if not the chances for any one particular bad guy group.
<-- Evil experiment

zabing12
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2015 8:33 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

so wait, it's 20 town, 3 mafia, 3 sks? That seems like the town is going to die pretty soon.

moody7277
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:06 pm UTC
Location: Extreme south Texas

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

zabing12 wrote:so wait, it's 20 town, 3 mafia, 3 sks? That seems like the town is going to die pretty soon.

Maybe something more like 20 town, 3 Sicilian mafia, 3 Yakuza, and a SK.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

zabing12
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2015 8:33 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

What is Sicilian mafia?

moody7277
Posts: 594
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:06 pm UTC
Location: Extreme south Texas

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

zabing12 wrote:What is Sicilian mafia?

I was just using that as a descriptor to separate the two mutually antagonistic groups.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

zabing12
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2015 8:33 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

Right so, I answer to all of it, I found this:
Mafia is a complicated game to model, so most analysis of optimal play has assumed both (a) that there are only townsfolk and mafiosos, and (b) that the townsfolk never have a probability of identifying the Mafia that is better than chance. Early treatment of the game concentrated on simulation, while more recent studies have tried to derive closed-form equilibrium solutions for perfect play.
In 2006, the computer scientists Braverman, Etesami and Mossel proved that without detectives and with perfect players the randomized strategy is optimal for both citizens and mafia. They showed that when there is a large number of players to give both groups similar probability of winning, the initial number of mafiosi m need to be proportional to the square root of the total number of players P, that is .[21] With a simulation, they confirmed that 50 mafiosi would have almost a 50% chance to win among 10,000. The Mafia's chance of victory is
,
which is a good approximation when the right hand side is below 40%. If any detectives are added to the game, Braverman et al. proved that the number of mafiosi must remain at a fixed proportion of the total number of players for their chance of winning to remain constant.
In 2008, Erlin Yao derived specific analytical bounds for the mafia's win probability when there are no detectives.
In a paper from 2010, exact formula for the probability that the mafia wins was found. Moreover, it was shown that the parity of the initial number of players plays an important role. In particular, when the number of mafiosi is fixed and an odd player is added to the game (and ties are resolved by coin flips), the mafia-winning chance do not drop but rise by a factor of approx. (equality in the limit of the infinite number of players).

zabing12
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2015 8:33 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

WAT!!! THEY TURNED OFF EDIT FOR USERS!!! NUUUUUUU!!!!

No, just you. Because you started replacing your posts with "Please delete" and have given 0 reasons why they should be deleted. Feel free to PM me if you want to discuss this. -ST

zabing12
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2015 8:33 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

New cult member list:

Cult Members: 9
1. SDK
2. Whizbang
3. mpolo
4. SPACKlick
5. Neil_Boekend
6. zabing12
7. That one mod who locked this thread on this forum.
8. McMenno
9. JDGA

DuplicateFeline
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Apr 28, 2015 4:02 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

So what's the point of this?

zabing12
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2015 8:33 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

New cult member list:

Cult Members: 9
1. SDK
2. Whizbang
3. mpolo
4. SPACKlick
5. Neil_Boekend
6. zabing12
7. That one mod who locked this thread on this forum.
8. McMenno
9. JDGA
10. DuplicateFeline

zabing12
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2015 8:33 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

Sacrificing has started!

every week, all the cult members will vote on who to sacrifice. This can be anyone on this forum, or the mafiascum forum.
You may now begin voting:

SPACKlick
Posts: 195
Joined: Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:25 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

sacrifice zabing12
for running this rather than modding a mafia game he's running

Vytron
Posts: 429
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:11 am UTC
Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

In case you missed this.

Basically, zabing12 says he's quitting the zabing12 account because it's in the process of getting banned (he posted this image as offtopic on over 2 dozen threads on forum games) and will be back with a different account.

SPACKlick
Posts: 195
Joined: Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:25 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

That link no longer works vytron.

I think Zabing has been a little hyperactive since joining the forum, not sure what his spampage was about.

Diemo
Posts: 393
Joined: Mon Dec 03, 2007 8:43 pm UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

Ugh, echochamber
In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

SecondTalon
SexyTalon
Posts: 26367
Joined: Sat May 05, 2007 2:10 pm UTC
Location: Louisville, Kentucky, USA, Mars. HA!
Contact:

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

Vytron wrote:In case you missed this.

Basically, zabing12 says he's quitting the zabing12 account because it's in the process of getting banned (he posted this image as offtopic on over 2 dozen threads on forum games) and will be back with a different account.

Because gosh, what better way to make a fresh start for yourself than announce in an incredibly annoying manner that you're going to do just that.

It'll draw zero unwanted attention from modstaff, right? That's how it works, right?

Oh, wait, no, it's not, because I'm in the fucking Mafia forum reading shit now and want to ban the asshat on principle.
heuristically_alone wrote:I want to write a DnD campaign and play it by myself and DM it myself.
heuristically_alone wrote:I have been informed that this is called writing a book.

wam
Posts: 201
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:08 am UTC
Location: South England

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

WHats wrong with the mafia forum!

On a more serious note I think this is the first time in the time I have been here (3years) that a mod has had to get involved.

Diemo
Posts: 393
Joined: Mon Dec 03, 2007 8:43 pm UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

wam wrote:WHats wrong with the mafia forum!

How much time you got?
In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

Vytron
Posts: 429
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:11 am UTC
Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

SecondTalon wrote:Oh, wait, no, it's not, because I'm in the fucking Mafia forum reading shit now and want to ban the asshat on principle.

Wait? Someone goes on a Spamming rampage ruining lots of games in the process and moderation wants them banned??

That just...

Reasonable.

Seriously, I usually play devil's advocate here, but zabing12's actions went beyond that: He joined some games as player, and now those games will have to replace them, and he started to mod games, gathered players, and then abandoned them.

In the post that can't no longer be seen he said that he had created his backup account in case this happened, since long time ago, as if doing all this was his plan all along.

Also, can a moderator move this thread to Forum Games? DuplicateFeline was taking over as new moderator of the game, but this is not a mafia game so my guess is it'd fit better there.

SPACKlick
Posts: 195
Joined: Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:25 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

OK elephant in the room. DuplicateFeline, I have to ask, with the name duplicate and the timing of your appearance. Are you zabing12?

Vytron
Posts: 429
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:11 am UTC
Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

Wow! Nice detective work! I'd have never suspected DuplicateFeline.

I think an IP check would verify it, but so far I'm convinced.

SPACKlick
Posts: 195
Joined: Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:25 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

Not really tone of voice, sence of hyperactivity behind the posts, it just sounded the same and the timing was suspicious.

Vytron
Posts: 429
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:11 am UTC
Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

Well, at least I predicted that when Zabing was back with his new account, that it was going to be obvious who he was, because, I don't recall ever seeing someone managing to do it (I was a mod on the Rybka Forums for 5 years, we had several problematic members that kept getting banned and coming back, with new IPs and all, and their problem was remaining problematic and being given away, once in trouble, always in trouble) - though, now that I think about it, if someone successfully managed to get a new account and start from scratch without anybody noticing, by definition I couldn't know about it, so, heh, who knows?

DuplicateFeline
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Apr 28, 2015 4:02 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

Actually, I knew zabing in Epicmafia. He must have got his forum avatar from my epicmafia account. I even Pmed him about it. I was joking in my post about taking from the list, mainly because I knew this would happen and I love breaking suspicions.

Also, he said he made the account about the same time he made his account, so can't we just look at the people who joined when he joined?

Vytron
Posts: 429
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:11 am UTC
Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

Sure, sure, I think that would pass "beyond reasonable doubt" in trial.

You know what would be really cool? If SPACKlick was actually zabing! This thing with he accusing you of being him would make it obvious that he's not zabing, even though he is, allowing him to live forever after without suspicion.

Though, this theory doesn't fly well because of SPACKlick's past on the forum and join date, and all that. It'd still boggle the mind, almost as much as me revealing I was zabing all along.

What I love about the whole case is that this is like a real life game of mafia, DuplicateFeline is either town (he's being truthful, and it makes sense because it would be zabing who stole his avatar) or mafia (he's zabing and wants us to believe otherwise with a straight face), except we can't lynch him and see him flip.

Will the real zabing please stand up appear with an account that makes it obvious it's him back so that DuplicateFeline is exonerated? And if that happens, will DuplicateFeline have done that as a ruse so people believed THAT was zabing so it couldn't be him?

The plot thickens...

DuplicateFeline
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Apr 28, 2015 4:02 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

But I didn't join when he joined, and he said that he made the account when he joined.

Vytron
Posts: 429
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:11 am UTC
Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

I'd assume zabing doesn't actually want us to figure out who he is on his new account, so lying about when he created it would be a step towards that, assuming we believe him (i.e. suppose zabing claims he created his account April 1st 2015, and he actually created it April 2nd 2015. Since we have his word that he created it on a different day then we should only have people that registered in April 1st 2015 as suspects and "clean" the rest?)

DuplicateFeline
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Apr 28, 2015 4:02 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

I think that we should comb for someone that

A ) joined on a near date to zabing
and

B ) Is a regular on this forum

Vytron
Posts: 429
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:11 am UTC
Location: The Outside. I use She/He/Her/His/Him as gender neutral pronouns :P

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

I don't see why he'd need to be a regular, he'd become more active right before Zabing was banned (ie. at the point zabing suspects he could be banned he uses the alternate account to mesh in, after he's gone the alternate account goes fully active - as opposed to zabing using both accounts for a long time, because he'd have no reason to be a regular on both).

DuplicateFeline
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Apr 28, 2015 4:02 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

Spoiler:
wait a second. Damn, this guy is good. This is exactly what he wanted, and exactly why he staged this on a mafia forum.

He wanted to create a mafia game.

He says he created a new account, but he never does. He waits till someone strolls along, a newcomer that he invited a while ago. Then, he does this little act. what if you make a game where no one is mafia? Where something happens that makes someone look like scum, but no one is? This is that game. He targets a single person and makes them look like himself, like a inverse disguiser, and abandons his ship for another to find. Now comes along the investigators like vytron, curious to find the truth of the matter. he sets up the tracks so well that he even steals my avatar to make it seem like me.Then he sends me a private message saying that I should check out this forum. Damn.

Don't look at that if you don't want to see my overactive imagination. It's kind of embarrassing, haha.

SPACKlick
Posts: 195
Joined: Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:25 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

IRL Mafia:

Spoiler:
Are you claiming to have been maniped directly by zabing or is that a hypothetical claim?

DuplicateFeline
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Apr 28, 2015 4:02 am UTC

### Re: Join The Forum Cult.

Purely hypothetical. I was saying it's a possibility that the thing I was talking about could be true. He did send me a Pm talking about the forum too.