Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality

[Sheikh al-Majaneen]

They did mention one of his horcruxes--voyager 2, right?

[HungryHobo]

I actually meant has there been any mention of the canon ones *intact* but un-horcruxed?

[phlip]

They did mention one of his horcruxes--voyager 2, right?

Oh right. Well, more strongly-hinted-at, but still...

I actually meant has there been any mention of the canon ones *intact* but un-horcruxed?

Well, I did a search for

Spoiler:

ring, diary, locket, cup, diadem and snake

in the text, and found:

Spoiler:

This part mentions "The key to a puzzle is often something you read twenty years ago in an old scroll, or a peculiar ring you saw on the finger of a man you met only once" which could theoretically be an oblique reference to the horcrux ring, and in the same passage also mentions a diary that "You could toss this diary in a fireplace and it would emerge unscathed"... which seems suspicious (though it's specifically Roger Bacon's diary, not Tom Riddle's... but where better for someone who praises rationality to want to store their soul, if they're still going the vanity thing that canon!Voldemort did...).

Nothing relevant came up for locket, diadem or cup, and there's too many results for "snake" for me to read through, thanks to all those sections where Quirrel became a snake... but I think I'd remember Nagini showing up.

[rhetorical]

What if...

Spoiler:

in HPMoR horcruxes work as follows: You split your soul and part of it inhabits a new object, or person. But then that portion of your soul is able to actually possess the person. Quirrell and Harry are both horcruxes, Harry definitely doesn't know but his split personality is Voldemort interfering, Quirrell may or may not know (kinda possible that he does, I think). That way, Voldemort learns from the perspectives of his hosts, Quirrell's perspective showing him greater foresight, Harry's the methods of rationality and science. They're both possessed by a portion of Voldemort's soul.

Spoiler:

That would explain why Quirrell is able to make such good deductions from seemingly insufficient priors (when Harry knows the answer), but it seems to be ruled out by both the sorting hat's statement that there is no Voldemort personality in Harry, and Quirrell's not knowing about the sorting hat's message until December in ch. 49.

[Pluvialis]

Spoiler:

That would explain why Quirrell is able to make such good deductions from seemingly insufficient priors (when Harry knows the answer), but it seems to be ruled out by both the sorting hat's statement that there is no Voldemort personality in Harry, and Quirrell's not knowing about the sorting hat's message until December in ch. 49.

Oh, I missed the part where the sorting hat said that Where is it?

[HonoreDB]

Chapter 10, the sorting. The hat's honesty is immediately called into question, though--it could be trying to get the conversation over faster, or protecting the privacy of former student Tom Riddle.

[Vaniver]

Chapter 10, the sorting. The hat's honesty is immediately called into question, though--it could be trying to get the conversation over faster, or protecting the privacy of former student Tom Riddle.

It specifies the scar, not his mind.

[Catmando]

Anyone else really beginning to get tired of all the webs of deception? I'm not really having trouble keeping up with it, but it's all beginning to be the same—x is lying to y is lying to z is lying to x and so on and so forth. It's like everyone is trying to pull a Dumbledore and run as many Xanatos Gambits as possible (though strangely it seems no one else is on Dumbledore's side, just playing like Dumbledore).

[Vaniver]

Anyone else really beginning to get tired of all the webs of deception? I'm not really having trouble keeping up with it, but it's all beginning to be the same—x is lying to y is lying to z is lying to x and so on and so forth. It's like everyone is trying to pull a Dumbledore and run as many Xanatos Gambits as possible (though strangely it seems no one else is on Dumbledore's side, just playing like Dumbledore).

How else are people to know that you're clever if you don't have tons of Xanatos Gambits going on?

To actually answer the question: eh. I enjoy watching Byzantine power struggles between people, but the problem I have is that I don't like any of the characters that much. Harry's morality in particular just makes me shake my head with disappointment.

[Catmando]

Anyone else really beginning to get tired of all the webs of deception? I'm not really having trouble keeping up with it, but it's all beginning to be the same—x is lying to y is lying to z is lying to x and so on and so forth. It's like everyone is trying to pull a Dumbledore and run as many Xanatos Gambits as possible (though strangely it seems no one else is on Dumbledore's side, just playing like Dumbledore).

How else are people to know that you're clever if you don't have tons of Xanatos Gambits going on?

To actually answer the question: eh. I enjoy watching Byzantine power struggles between people, but the problem I have is that I don't like any of the characters that much. Harry's morality in particular just makes me shake my head with disappointment.

I think it would be more interesting if each character represented a kind of morality. I don't think that's the case, though. They all act the same if you ask me, if for different reasons.

[Fizzybobnewt]

You know who this kid is? It's not Harry Potter. It's Artemis Fowl.

(Sorry if it's been said already.)

[Pluvialis]

New author's note:

Update 12/25: Decided not to split 78. It's finished at >17,000 words, but I want to finish at least Ch. 79 before publishing anything, because 78 ends on a major cliffhanger. On the plus side, I think the end of Ch. 78 gets us back into the main flow of action again. All of this has taught me a valuable lesson about writing structure, "never recurse more than once" - you can have X happen so that Y can happen, but never have W happen so that X can happen so that Y can happen. Anything worth setting up can be set up in one step.

I love seeing his thought process as he struggles with and learns about writing It's fascinating.

[Catmando]

New author's note:

Update 12/25: Decided not to split 78. It's finished at >17,000 words, but I want to finish at least Ch. 79 before publishing anything, because 78 ends on a major cliffhanger. On the plus side, I think the end of Ch. 78 gets us back into the main flow of action again. All of this has taught me a valuable lesson about writing structure, "never recurse more than once" - you can have X happen so that Y can happen, but never have W happen so that X can happen so that Y can happen. Anything worth setting up can be set up in one step.

I love seeing his thought process as he struggles with and learns about writing It's fascinating.

Getting back in the main flow of action? When we were out of the flow?

[Jorpho]

Getting back in the main flow of action? When we were out of the flow?

As I've said before, I for one found all this abstract musing about a plot-inconsequential bullying problem to be well out of the proverbial flow.

[Pluvialis]

Getting back in the main flow of action? When we were out of the flow?

The author's notes show that his perspective on the fic at any given point can be very different from my own It's interesting.

[Adam H]

...never have W happen so that X can happen so that Y can happen. Anything worth setting up can be set up in one step.

Someone want to explain this for me? It seems like looking only one step ahead is a recipe for disaster... For example, if at the end harry dies (Y), then there needs to be a fight scene between harry and voldemort (X)... and surely he needs to setup that fight (W)? Apparently that's not what he's talking about?

[Vaniver]

I think it would be more interesting if each character represented a kind of morality. I don't think that's the case, though. They all act the same if you ask me, if for different reasons.

Hm? They certainly have different reasoning methods and different preferences. What would it look like to represent different kinds of morality?

Someone want to explain this for me? It seems like looking only one step ahead is a recipe for disaster... For example, if at the end harry dies (Y), then there needs to be a fight scene between harry and voldemort (X)... and surely he needs to setup that fight (W)? Apparently that's not what he's talking about?

I think he's talking about Ch 78+79, and that there's some odd time loop or plot that recurses several times.

Alternatively, he's talking about the heroic responsibility talk between Hermione and Harry, which could have been done in three or four less chapters if he had just gone right there.

[Pluvialis]

This just in:

Update 12/28: Ch. 79 done at 6,700 words. I think I'll see if I can get this entire arc done before I start posting it - if not, I'll give up and post before too long, but I'm encouraged by how fast Ch. 79 went.

[Catmando]

I think it would be more interesting if each character represented a kind of morality. I don't think that's the case, though. They all act the same if you ask me, if for different reasons.

Hm? They certainly have different reasoning methods and different preferences. What would it look like to represent different kinds of morality?

Well, they all are basically "do what you need to at any means necessary." There are variations, like Hermione's aversion to rule-breaking and Harry's extreme view on death and Dumbledore's abstruse motives, but generally they all act the same. If we imagine for a second that Harry is the utilitarian, why can't Hermione be, say, the deontologist?

I think I'd be more interested in taking sides if it were like that. Just a thought, though—I think I would keep reading no matter where Less Wrong takes the plot.

[Vaniver]

Well, they all are basically "do what you need to at any means necessary." There are variations, like Hermione's aversion to rule-breaking and Harry's extreme view on death and Dumbledore's abstruse motives, but generally they all act the same. If we imagine for a second that Harry is the utilitarian, why can't Hermione be, say, the deontologist?

I think I'd be more interested in taking sides if it were like that. Just a thought, though—I think I would keep reading no matter where Less Wrong takes the plot.

It seems to me that Hermione was deontologist, although she may have changed as a result of her recent experience. (Hermione's line of "You've got to stop coming up with clever reasons to do stupid things!" is the classic deontologist rebuke of consequentialism, for example.)

As for the "do what you need to"- I think that's why those characters are the protagonists; that they take ideas seriously, instead of just stumbling through their lives.

[Catmando]

Well, they all are basically "do what you need to at any means necessary." There are variations, like Hermione's aversion to rule-breaking and Harry's extreme view on death and Dumbledore's abstruse motives, but generally they all act the same. If we imagine for a second that Harry is the utilitarian, why can't Hermione be, say, the deontologist?

I think I'd be more interested in taking sides if it were like that. Just a thought, though—I think I would keep reading no matter where Less Wrong takes the plot.

It seems to me that Hermione was deontologist, although she may have changed as a result of her recent experience. (Hermione's line of "You've got to stop coming up with clever reasons to do stupid things!" is the classic deontologist rebuke of consequentialism, for example.)

As for the "do what you need to"- I think that's why those characters are the protagonists; that they take ideas seriously, instead of just stumbling through their lives.

I suppose you have a point about their role as the protagonists.

[Pluvialis]

New author's note:

Update 1/19: Currently working on Ch. 81. I may or may not post 78 when I'm done with 81, but have a strong impression that I had better at least complete Ch. 81 before posting anything. This is due both to the extent that the chapters form a dramatic 'block' and the number of backward edits I've been making.

I am surprised at the number of people who assume that I am deliberately squatting on these chapters like some sort of evil hoardy dragon bent on causing them personal pain, despite the fact that I am, y'know, nice enough to write the chapters in the first place. Those sorts of yelling, impolite, demanding reviews - you know who you are - don't make writing more pleasant for me. General life advice: Celeste's Principle states that you should try to associate a behavior with pleasant, positive, rewarding feelings if you want that behavior to be repeated. Demanding that I release chapters isn't going to make me stop writing, but it does feel like a small jolt of pain each time I get one and that's really not what you want me to associate with HPMOR. That's not blackmail, it's me genuinely describing how my mind works.

Writing lessons recently learned:

(1) Next time, if ever, that I write a novel, I will know that the reason there is a phrase called "plot bunnies" is that they reproduce out of control if not otherwise restrained, and I will try to put my plot open parens closer to my plot close parens.

(2) Thinking abstractly about the degree of tension that needs to hold in a particular place in the text, was very helpful in letting me see which events couldn't happen, or needed to happen at a later point. For example, you can't have a joke, or certain kinds of jokes, while you're trying to build tension - laughter dissipates tension.

(3) If you're a fanfiction author and have completed chapters in the pipeline but you're still working on them or want to post them as a set, don't tell anyone unless you're very thick-skinned - there's a surprisingly large number of vocal readers who will take this as a personal insult, even though many others may be glad for the information.

Update 1/20: I am amazed at the incredible outpouring of warmth that I've gotten over the last two days. Thank you. This is what makes writing rewarding. I will take all your kind words to heart, and not post the arc until it's properly cooked and finished and ready for a flurry of predictable closely-spaced posts. That's what I thought most people would want after waiting several months, and the recent flood of reassurance has given me the strength to carry through on it.

Today's HPMOR words written: 3,800.
Latest chapter with a complete draft: Ch. 81.
Hours past bedtime stayed up before even starting to go to sleep: 1.5.

[Adam H]

Ah, there's going to be so much to read!

It's interesting to me the sorts of things he thinks he learned from writing this. The way he has written the tension and humor is a big reason the fanfic is so popular. I'm not sure if he needs to fix that... And while I'm sure the plot bunnies are hard to resolve and are giving him headaches, I don't think anyone wants him to dumb down the plot.

He did specify that he learned those things "recently", so maybe he's not talking about the chapters already written.

[Kisama]

Yay @ new author's note

I'm on my third time reading through and I got stuck on this sentence (emphasis added):

this dial with the eight hands counts the number of, let's call them sneezes, by left-handed witches within the borders of France, you would not believe how much work it took to nail that down.

This seems to imply that it is not, in fact, sneezes being counted... in that case, any ideas what the dial is counting?

[Zeroedout]

Yay @ new author's note

I concur. I'm very excited about the next few chapters and it's really nice to know he's progressing. I'm thinking of sending him a personal thank you for the great material so far. Has anyone else done this?

[zombie_monkey]

Probably orgasms?

[Kisama]

Ah... if that's the case then I'm sure it was a lot of work to nail them that down.

[Loadstone]

Which begs the question: does it really need 8 hands? Just how big are the numbers we're dealing with here?

I guess left-handed French witches really DO have more fun.

[clockworkmonk]

perhaps the 8 hands track different orgasms?

I mean, I know women I have talked to told me that the orgasms they have as a result of masturbation feel different than the ones as a result of intercourse.


this took an odd turn.
edit: fixed some grammar and spelling

[semicharmed]

perhaps the 8 hands track different orgasms?

... or there's only 8 left-handed witches in France? Which is what I first thought upon reading that again.

[Yakk]

Or it enumerates the left handed witches in France, and tracks them by mod 8 equivalence class.

Or it divides the territory of France into 8 sub-territories, and counts them independently.

Or it divides the territory of France (or the witches) into 2^8 territories, describes each territory as a bit field, and then advances that subset of the hands. Or maybe 3^8, and it can either advance, retreat or stay still. Or 5^8, with a double-sized advance option in each direction.

At 5^8, that allows a population of up to 390625 left handed witches to be independently tracked. At 7^8, it is 5,764,801 left-handed witches.

[clockworkmonk]

It could be that a larger percentage of magic users are left handed when compared to muggles.

Like astronauts who walked on the moon.

[Kisama]

I highly doubt that the number of hands in any way relates to the number of left handed witches in France, since that is a quantity that fluctuates. More likely that each hand just represents a digit in an arbitrary base. For example, a standard clock face with 60 divisions gives a counter which could go up to (60^8 - 1) before rolling over to zero again. That does perhaps seem too simple and straightforward for a magical device in Dumbledore's office, so perhaps each digit is in a different base, or they have a more complicated relationship. Whatever the mechanism, I think it's just a counter that indicates the current total.

Edit to avoid double-post:
In chapter 58

Spoiler:

"And am I to believe," Harry hissed, "that healer for woman truly awaitss uss?"

"Usse ssensse, boy! Ssupposse I am evil. To end usse of you here iss obvioussly not what I planned. Misssion iss target of opportunity, invented after ssaw your guardian Charm, whole affair meant to be unnoticed, hid when left eating-place. Obvioussly you will ssee persson pretending to be healer on arrival! Go back to eating-place afterward, original plan carriess on undissturbed!"

Harry doesn't seem to take notice of it at all, and then in the next chapter

Spoiler:

"Oh, Merlin," whispered the witch, "Merlin, Merlin, Merlin..."

She appears concerned, thought an abstract, distant thing between two panes of glass. Is that what a real healer would say, or is it what someone told to put on a performance would say?

I'm voting that this is a performance, said the Inner Critic. She wouldn't just blurt all that out in response to one question unless she was looking for an opportunity.

Noted, but I'm putting a low weight of confidence on that, said Ravenclaw. It's very hard not to let your suspicions control your perceptions when you're trying to weigh evidence that subtle.

I think the performance is finished, said the Inner Critic. I give it two and a half out of five stars. She's probably not a very experienced actor.

I wonder if a real healer would seem more fake than an actor told to play one? mused Ravenclaw.

Why is he trying to figure out whether she's a real healer or not, and why that last musing that she could still be genuine, when Quirrel already clearly said it would be someone pretending?

[4d0m]

Quirrel wasn't telling Harry that it would be a fake, but that if Quirrel were evil, he would at least be clever enough to put a fake healer on the other side of the portkey.

[jobriath]

Spoiler:

"And am I to believe," Harry hissed, "that healer for woman truly awaitss uss?"

"Usse ssensse, boy! Ssupposse I am evil. To end usse of you here iss obvioussly not what I planned. Misssion iss target of opportunity, invented after ssaw your guardian Charm, whole affair meant to be unnoticed, hid when left eating-place. Obvioussly you will ssee persson pretending to be healer on arrival! Go back to eating-place afterward, original plan carriess on undissturbed!"

Spoiler:

I think Quirrell is speaking in the hypothetical, even though his wording is indicative. I noticed the same thing when I read it too but didn't consider that it was a slip-up on Q's part. I still don't, unless you think there's more to it.

I badly need another MOR fix.

[Zeroedout]

I badly need another MOR fix.

Yes, put it straight to my veins!

[WarDaft]

Spoiler:

"And am I to believe," Harry hissed, "that healer for woman truly awaitss uss?"

"Usse ssensse, boy! Ssupposse I am evil. To end usse of you here iss obvioussly not what I planned. Misssion iss target of opportunity, invented after ssaw your guardian Charm, whole affair meant to be unnoticed, hid when left eating-place. Obvioussly you will ssee persson pretending to be healer on arrival! Go back to eating-place afterward, original plan carriess on undissturbed!"

Spoiler:

I think Quirrell is speaking in the hypothetical, even though his wording is indicative. I noticed the same thing when I read it too but didn't consider that it was a slip-up on Q's part. I still don't, unless you think there's more to it.

I badly need another MOR fix.

Spoiler:

Definitely hypothetical. This all follows the statement "Suppose I am evil" and so is meant to be something harry could have logically deduced from this supposition, not an admission of guilt. Quirrell is merely showing how, even if he were evil, he wouldn't be done with Harry yet, so Harry has nothing to worry about. Yet.

[HonoreDB]

Quirrell doesn't really believe in the distinction between "being a healer" and "pretending to be a healer" anyway.

If you're really desperate for a MoR fix, I'm selling methadone cheap in my signature. I'll even give you a hit for free. *laughs evilly*

Or we could just all speculate on what Dumbledore's instrument with the golden wibblers does, that Minerva will never, ever figure out. I mean, it could be something arbitrary, but why go for security-through-obscurity when it could be something Minerva has trouble even grasping the concept of. Maybe it measures at what level the person in the opposite chair is currently plotting--how many layers of recursive deception are in what they just said. Or something to do with time-travel, time being like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey stuff after all. I have a feeling she would quickly detect that it had something to do with time-travel, and then preserve her sanity by immediately giving up on nailing it down exactly.

[jobriath]

If you're really desperate for a MoR fix, I'm selling methadone cheap in my signature. I'll even give you a hit for free. *laughs evilly*

You had me at "What." I loved the excerpt in the 0make files. Hamlet and the Philosopher's Stone is now queued on my Kindle right behind Hamlet itself.

Or we could just all speculate on what Dumbledore's instrument with the golden wibblers does, that Minerva will never, ever figure out. I mean, it could be something arbitrary, but why go for security-through-obscurity when it could be something Minerva has trouble even grasping the concept of. Maybe it measures at what level the person in the opposite chair is currently plotting--how many layers of recursive deception are in what they just said. Or something to do with time-travel, time being like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey stuff after all. I have a feeling she would quickly detect that it had something to do with time-travel, and then preserve her sanity by immediately giving up on nailing it down exactly.

To be fair, given the specificity of the other devices, security by obscurity in such a large hypothesis space seems like a perfectly fine strategy to keep this hidden from Minerva!

I like your recursive-plotting idea but don't understand it. What if someone were to figure it out? If Quirrell were to work it out he could sit in the opposite chair and make a true statement in the Headmaster's interest (0 level deception). He knows about the wibbler but can choose to speaky truly despite it, which strikes me as still 0-level deception; or he can choose to speak truly because of it, in which case he knows the wibbler will register level 1 plotting because Quirrell is banking on the wibbler causing his words to be misinterpreted.

What if Quirrell resolves to enact an odd-numbered-level deception if the wibbler shows an even number, and vice versa? My guess is that it displays the message "REDUCTIO AD LEFT-HANDED BANANAS" and melts.

I suspect I too will never, ever figure out what the wibbler does.

[Yakk]

Possibly it both demonstrates the level of recursive deception, and the level of deception in the deception complexity hierarchy.

Then changing your level of deception as a function of the deception you are looking at would simply register as a higher level of deception complexity.

Changing your level of deception as a function of the deception hierarchy you get would be a slightly higher level in the deception complexity hierarchy. It wouldn't matter what your actual number of recursive deceptions was at a lower level in the hierarchy.

Eventually, your ability to understand the deception complexity hierarchy would give out, and thus prevent the system from needing an infinite setting, given a mortal being on the other side.