British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Xenomortis » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:43 pm UTC

The reasoning there is that free movement means that refugees allowed into other EU countries will end up in Britain to take advantage of our benefits system.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:44 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:When it came to all the comments on the BBC website, it was all people bitching about how they would walk down London and wouldn't understand what was said. Rivers of blood and dogwhistles galore. But while a lot of it was against the Polish and other Eastern Europeans, the bulk was against the Muslims.


I bet there weren't that many people actually from London saying that. 50% of the population here have at least one immigrant parent, and everyone works with and interacts with people from all over the world on a daily basis. Actually knowing immigrants tends to have the effect of making one much less afraid of immigrants, you can even start seeing them as actual people.

UKIP support is at its highest in areas where everyone is white, and the effect is extreme enough that it's not just because immigrants don't support UKIP.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Soupspoon » Wed Oct 05, 2016 5:28 pm UTC

(Responding to viewtopic.php?f=9&t=113501&start=840#p4074967 ...)

"... would you Adam and Eve it? I went for a bowl down the frog, and all my bottles could hear from everyone else's norths was yabber, yabber, yabber. Not even any park benchies or Ben Shermans, and hardly even any jam rolls, like there used to be. It was a right Frazier, and some of 'em even gave me the melody when I tried to be polite and begged their Osama..."
Last edited by Soupspoon on Wed Oct 05, 2016 5:35 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Quercus » Wed Oct 05, 2016 5:33 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:When it came to all the comments on the BBC website, it was all people bitching about how they would walk down London and wouldn't understand what was said. Rivers of blood and dogwhistles galore. But while a lot of it was against the Polish and other Eastern Europeans, the bulk was against the Muslims.

I suspect really hope (with no real evidence) that the BBC comments section is not representative of the voting public. It's a cesspool.


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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Angua » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:35 pm UTC

I saw something on facebook about a UKIP guy being on the run from the French police, but I thought it wasn't being serious as the punchline (heh) was that he was going to Calais as he'd said it was easy for anyone to jump on a lorry.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Grop » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:24 pm UTC

I would expect the British police to worry about that, not the French one.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:27 pm UTC

The altercation happened in Strasbourg.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Soupspoon » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:38 pm UTC

The best Defence Spokesman is a good Offence Spokesman!

(surely been said a million times by now...)

((and if UKIP, of all parties, don't use the proper UK spelling, I am disapoint...))

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Thu Nov 03, 2016 10:38 am UTC

The courts have ruled that the UK government doesn't have the right to exit the EU without parliament voting on it first.

It will be appealed, and even if the government loses the appeal probably parliament will still vote for exit, but it's a moral victory given that one of the reasons argued for Brexit was to return sovereignty from the 'unaccountable' EU back to the UK legislature.

Still, sterling has bounced slightly with the good news (albeit likely only a temporary blip).

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby eSOANEM » Thu Nov 03, 2016 10:43 am UTC

I am exceedingly pleased by this news.

Like you say, it will be appealed but I hope the supreme court will uphold the constitutional principle of parliamentary sovereignty.

As for whether parliament would pass a vote for exit, the Tory majority is narrow and it's far from clear that there's a majority for brexit and this certainly seems to be the sort of issue where you might get widespread rebellion from remainer Tory MPs.

This is a step in the right direction but the fight is far from over. I hope this trend will continue.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Thu Nov 03, 2016 10:47 am UTC

Although I'm just trying to imagine what will happen if they vote not to leave. It would be legal, the referendum was advisory, but there'll be a lot of quite butthurt leave voters (and quite a lot of angry remain voters who feel the public's decision should be upheld).

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby eSOANEM » Thu Nov 03, 2016 10:57 am UTC

There'd also be a lot of relieved breget-folks. Overall a bunch of people will be pissed off and a bunch of others will be pleased. Likewise if they vote to leave.

This issue is hugely divisive and so you're guaranteed to piss lots of people off whatever you do.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Thu Nov 03, 2016 10:58 am UTC

I think there will be carnage if parliament doesn't vote for leave. Personally I think most will vote to 'respect the wishes of the majority'...

What I'd ideally like to see is the UK negotiates our new status outside of the EU (trading tariffs, contribution to the EU budget, rules for migration etc), and then there's a vote on if it's better than the status quo - but I'm not sure that's actually possible given that we have to petition to leave the EU before negotiation is even allowed to start...

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:06 am UTC

I'd also prefer we left and got a Norway-style deal with access to the single market. Is it known if the MP vote will be anonymous? I can more easily imagine MPs voting to stay if its not known who voted which way.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:21 am UTC

Personally I think there's areas the government can compromise on during negotiations, and areas they can't.

They can't compromise on immigration: They won't allow an open border with the EU.
They can't compromise on legislation: The EU won't be issuing rulings we have to comply with.
They can't compromise on the budget: We won't end up paying more than we do now.
They can compromise on trade: Trade tariffs, bureaucracy and access to the single market are complicated enough to handwave away as victories no matter how damaging they are in reality.

I think simple politics will determine what we end up with.

I think we'll end up contributing to the EU budget, I dunno, about half what we currently do, in order to obtain preferential treatment for a few key industries, but I think that all neutral commentators will agree that we are economically worse off; But it will be adjudged as 'worth it' in order to 'regain our sovereignty'...

(In addition, we'll have to pay many many billions in alimony payments to pay off our share of EU collective debts - meaning our yearly outgoings might actually become larger than at present - but that will be easy enough to pin on 'previous governments' rather than the blame falling on the present one..)

---

Don't imagine the MP vote will be anonymous; Think all votes are done by MPs physically walking through lobbies so don't think it's actually possible.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Xenomortis » Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:43 am UTC

Mutex wrote:Is it known if the MP vote will be anonymous? I can more easily imagine MPs voting to stay if its not known who voted which way.

Divisions (votes) are not anonymous - party whips wouldn't have much power if they were.
The process of divisions is somewhat arcane. The Speaker can simply ask everyone in the chamber to say "Aye" or "No" and call it on that - but assuming a full division then MPs walk to the respective lobby (under the watch of the whips) where they give their name.

You can look up how MPs have voted.
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/divisions.php
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Soupspoon » Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:52 am UTC

MPs now need to work out their local terrain, if they haven't already gotten an idea.

Given 38% average Leave support, 35% average Remain support and 28% non-voters, before adjusting for those who voted one way (or conceivably the other) as a statement rather than an intent, there's definite wriggleroom when considering the dangers of losing majorities or party selection (assuming they want to be reelected). It'd be a somewhat complex equation for each constituency. That's assuming (ninjaed!) it also is an unwhipped vote, because that would be an additional pressure.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby eSOANEM » Thu Nov 03, 2016 11:55 am UTC

I'm not sure parliamentary cotes are ever anonymous, it would make it impossible to hold MPs accountable which is necessary when you have a local representative.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Thu Nov 03, 2016 12:24 pm UTC

UKIP respond with nonsense as usual:

Suzanne Evans, UKIP wrote:"How dare these activist judges attempt to overturn our will? It's a power grab & undermines democracy. Time we had the right to sack them. "

Not realising that that road leads to increased politicization of the judiciary and more activism over the long term.

And also not realising that parliament actually does have the right to sack judges - though it hasn't exercised that right in over a century because of the above. But, hey, in this post-truth, post-expert age, whatevah!

Meanwhile, others have kept calmer and wiser heads:

Stewart Wood, Labor peer wrote:"Our High Court today reminded us that democracy requires not just respecting majority rule but also, crucially, respecting the rule of law."


Grahame Pigney, organiser of the People’s Challenge wrote:"The case is incredibly important to the UK’s parliamentary democracy."

”We came here to force the situation, to ask the courts whether it’s parliament or government who is sovereign,” he told the Guardian outside the RCJ.

“In some ways it’s got to go to the Supreme Court to be decided at the highest possible level,” he added.

Pigney denied that the case aimed to challenge the referendum’s result. “Parliament has to go make the decision on all the facts, including the referendum result and what’s in the best interests of all four nations in the UK,” he said.


Meanwhile, Boris was Boris as per usual:

Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has said the UK will make a "Titanic success" of Brexit.

He made the remark as he was presenting an award at the Spectator magazine's Parliamentarian of the Year ceremony in London.

After loud laughter from the audience, he clarified his comments, saying Brexit would be a "colossal success".

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Liri » Thu Nov 03, 2016 12:44 pm UTC

Poor EU. This is exactly the sort of thing they were afraid of.

The party heads can allow conscience votes by MPs at their discretion, right? I don't know how likely/unlikely that is in this case.

I wonder if Brexit is being seen as a bit of a warning sign here in the US to not get complacent when a referendum on a rash choice comes up.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Xenomortis » Thu Nov 03, 2016 1:15 pm UTC

Liri wrote:The party heads can allow conscience votes by MPs at their discretion, right? I don't know how likely/unlikely that is in this case.

Sure - suppose a Tory MP's constituency is strongly against a government motion, then Tory whips may not pressure them into voting the party line, particularly if the vote looks like it'll go in the government's favour.
The vote may also be free - in which case the party's MPs are not whipped. I doubt that'll be the case for this vote, Tory MPs will almost certainly be whipped.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Soupspoon » Thu Nov 03, 2016 1:37 pm UTC

Xenomortis wrote:Tory MPs will almost certainly be whipped.
They're reknowned for it! But enough about sex scandals... ;)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Vo2max » Mon Nov 07, 2016 3:41 pm UTC

elasto wrote:I think there will be carnage if parliament doesn't vote for leave. Personally I think most will vote to 'respect the wishes of the majority'...

What I'd ideally like to see is the UK negotiates our new status outside of the EU (trading tariffs, contribution to the EU budget, rules for migration etc), and then there's a vote on if it's better than the status quo - but I'm not sure that's actually possible given that we have to petition to leave the EU before negotiation is even allowed to start...


I think at this point most remainers would take any of the potential options discussed during the campaign, Norway-style, Swiss-style, Canada-style, whatever, over the current craziness. The Labour party don't seem to know how to play this; it seems like their ideal end-game is amendments to the Article 50 Bill to pursue staying in the EEA (or some similar free-trade arrangement) but they don't obviously have the parliamentary numbers to be sure of pulling it off, plus it would be very easy for the position to be spun as counter to the spirit of the referendum and make them even less popular.

The EU was always very low on the priority list for almost everyone in the UK. But for a relatively small but very vocal and influential group it trumps everything else and makes them very angry indeed. Those people currently have their wet-dream scenario of the full UK-self-destruct option, and they're going to kick off big time when they detect any backtracking from that. There may be good, sensible, theoretically-possible resolutions but to the people we're dealing with those are all the work of Volksverräter.

So we end up with lots of money and time wasted on well-meant over-thought ideas like this one which aren't really serving any purpose other than stoking up the angst.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/07/brexit-cps-considers-complaint-that-leave-campaigns-misled-voters

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Plasma Man » Mon Nov 07, 2016 5:53 pm UTC

I'm cautiously optimistic now that Parliament has to have a vote on triggering Article 50 (I don't see the appeal against the judgement getting very far, unless they come up with a very clever new line of argument). I'm pretty sure the majority of MPs want to retain access to the European Single Market, so I suspect we may end going for something like the Norway model. I don't think that's as good as being a full member of the EU, but it would probably be the least damaging form of Brexit.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby wst » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:45 pm UTC

I agree, Plasma Man. It rankles. I feel like I've gone to the dentist with a set of perfect teeth and they're saying "well we're only taking your teeth out, we could remove the whole jaw" and I'm lying on their recliner thinking "my fucking teeth are fine!"

I've asked my MP if, in a "hard brexit or no brexit" situation, he would bend for hard brexit or if he'd stick behind his "remain" ideal from before the apocalypse (v1.0). I expect he'd be ok with the compromise of a soft one, but it's a fucking stupid compromise.

Edit: Apologies for language. I'm rather narked about the whole thing. Tonight is probably a bad night to talk politics!
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Jumble » Tue Nov 08, 2016 7:07 am UTC

On the bright side, in 24 hours the insanity and stupidity of our democratic choice may well be lost by comparison.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:38 am UTC

Well that has certainly cheered me up.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby kingofdreams » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:29 am UTC

as an anglo-american maybe i shouldn't reproduce
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby PolakoVoador » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:35 am UTC

Or maybe just reproduce at another country?

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Jumble » Wed Nov 09, 2016 5:00 pm UTC

Spoiler:
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Oregonaut wrote:CURSE YOU VILLAIN!!
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:45 pm UTC

I wonder if there is a genuine silver lining in all this for the UK's negotiations with Europe.

If there is a genuine danger of the US tearing up trade and climate agreements with the EU etc., there may be less of an appetite to play politics with any post-Brexit trade agreement, and more of an appetite to consider it purely in economic terms.

If the EU is seen to be doling out 'punishment' for purely political reasons, there may be a genuine threat of right-wing xenophobia spreading through the various EU electorates even wider and faster than it already will...

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Karantalsis » Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:54 am UTC

I'm English, but I identify more strongly as European, as do many of those under 40 here. Currently, in my country, a narrow majority of the populous has voted to strip me (and themselves) of a citizenship I have enjoyed most of my life and in exchange we get nothing of value. This has been touted as a triumph of freedom, a regaining of a sovereignty we never lost. As a triumph of democracy. It is not, it is an act of tyranny of the majority (and a small majority at that). It is a betrayal of our parliamentary democracy, a system whereby representatives are elected to do the best for their constituents and the country. This does not mean bending ot the majority will. If the majority of the country is in favour of amputating everyone's left foot, the parliament still has the ability to reject such nonsense, on the basis of what is best for the nation, including those who hold the ridiculous position.

Not only this, but, also if each of our MPs represented the majority will of their constituency (not what we elect them to do, but at least better than a bare majority vote), then the vote would be to remain due to the distribution of the voters. Leaving the EU is a terrible betrayal of the due process of our political system, a loss of freedoms for the populous and a progress towards a country where the desires of the majority trump the rights of all. Ich denke das ich vielleicht nach Deutschland auswandern werde.

Is it a good thing that we are now only the second dumbest political choice of the year?

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Zamfir » Thu Nov 10, 2016 12:10 pm UTC

elasto wrote:I wonder if there is a genuine silver lining in all this for the UK's negotiations with Europe.

If there is a genuine danger of the US tearing up trade and climate agreements with the EU etc., there may be less of an appetite to play politics with any post-Brexit trade agreement, and more of an appetite to consider it purely in economic terms.

I am skeptiçal about that, or that you can take politics out of trade negotiations. Even in the past, the UK would typically take the US side in US-EU disputes. When Washington calls to talk the special relationship, London listens.

Suppose Trump is going to play hardball with Europe, on trade or climate or Russia or the next US war. He's going to pick up that London phone a lot, and I don't think that a Brexiting UK is going to ignore him.

I can't imagine that it will help UK-EU relations, let alone that it will reduce the amount of politics in the negotiations.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Jumble » Thu Nov 10, 2016 9:08 pm UTC

Zamfir wrote:I am skeptiçal about that, or that you can take politics out of trade negotiations. Even in the past, the UK would typically take the US side in US-EU disputes. When Washington calls to talk the special relationship, London listens.



I wonder about the special relationship. We have a future commander in chief of our old allie who is on the record as advocating torture, discrimination on the grounds of race, gender and religion and boasts about sexual assault. Not to mention perverted comments about his own daughter.

I genuinely wonder if we still have, or can morally justify, a special relationship. Possibly, for the first time in more than 2 millennia, and partly of our own choosing, the UK (or what's left when the Scots do the sensible thing and cut us loose) are totally on our own. We live in interesting times.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Tyndmyr » Thu Nov 10, 2016 9:20 pm UTC

What's a little torture between allies?

I don't think that's been a problem before.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby HES » Thu Nov 10, 2016 9:23 pm UTC

America is more than one man.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Jumble » Thu Nov 10, 2016 9:36 pm UTC

HES wrote:America is more than one man.

America voted for that one [white, misogynist, racist, self-serving, egotistical '] man. As with brexit, that's democracy folks. You vote for the hell you live in.


I'm more interested in what I tell my daughters. I'm going with 'the generations above you were basically selfish and stupid and I'm sorry we fucked up so badly. It's up to you to build a human race that has some right to survive '. Kind of a hard sell but I don't like lying to my daughters.
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Oregonaut wrote:CURSE YOU VILLAIN!!
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby PeteP » Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:19 pm UTC

You could say something like "It looks ugly now but we won't lose everything we gained in the last x decades, opinions have been changed and that will not simply go away, every step of progress didn't happen by accident but was hard fought and hard fought things won't be completely reverted by backslash. The world is in many ways still better than it was in the past and your generation will make it better than it is now. (Except you won't because the fight against global warming is pretty much lost barring a technical miracle that solves everything. So your generation will sometimes during your live have to deal with the first consequences of that. Though the first consequences will mostly hit poor regions so you might still be fine.)" Or something like that. People have always been kinda shitty for instance I am german and don't believe that people have fundamentally changed from the times of the nazis* but non the less there has been some progress and there will be set backs sometimes gigantic ones but I have (some amount of) trust that they will recovered from.

* Of course attitudes, opinions, ideologies have changed but not the basic nature of people.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Jumble » Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:28 pm UTC

Erm. I may not go with all of that as I'm not sure about the basic 'we are all fucked and everyone's dead ' approach to inspiring the next generation. Not that I don't agree, but sometimes lies are good.
Spoiler:
Giant Speck wrote:You're a demon! DEMON!!!!

Oregonaut wrote:CURSE YOU VILLAIN!!
PhoenixEnigma wrote:Jumble is either the best or worst Santa ever, and I can't figure out which. Possibly both.


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