2016 US Presidential Election

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Tyndmyr
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Nov 21, 2016 4:45 pm UTC

Oh, yeah, recovering from one bankruptcy, at that level, isn't particularly strange. The bankruptcy is a data point, but it's just one amid a number of them. If you own enough businesses, some of them will go bankrupt. That doesn't mean the individual has nothing.

Most of us are not praising Trump. We're merely labeling him as an average businessman, given his starting advantages.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Izawwlgood » Mon Nov 21, 2016 4:56 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:Most of us are not praising Trump. We're merely labeling him as an average businessman, given his starting advantages.
Whereas most of the praise I hear about Trump is that he is a 'brilliant businessman'.

I think you know this. And I think there's a lot of selective responses going on here.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby morriswalters » Mon Nov 21, 2016 4:59 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:
morriswalters wrote:
Thesh wrote:But again, he came back from those Bankruptcies and defaults only because he had the money to afford the lawyers that could exploit the tax loophole.
Exactly how much of Trump's financial activity are you privy to?


This is a known fact - when his casino's failed, he didn't take a loss, other people took the loss, primarily the banks and the new investors to the private company he ran into the ground.
Trump is seventy. How much do you know about his business over that span of time? How much other data do you have to support your contention? Tax returns, financial statements, public sources? One of the most aggravating things about his candidacy from my perspective was how little we actually knew about him.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Mutex » Mon Nov 21, 2016 5:12 pm UTC

Izawwlgood wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:Most of us are not praising Trump. We're merely labeling him as an average businessman, given his starting advantages.
Whereas most of the praise I hear about Trump is that he is a 'brilliant businessman'.

I think you know this. And I think there's a lot of selective responses going on here.


I don't think anyone is defending the idea he's brilliant.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby elasto » Mon Nov 21, 2016 5:21 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:I don't think anyone is defending the idea he's brilliant.

And yet it's one of the few 'acceptable' reasons for voting for him despite his misogyny and bigotry, so it's worth taking the time to debunk.

(One of the other few acceptable reasons was his pledge to drain the swamp of lobbyists and establishment elite, but he has debunked that himself with his appointments of lobbyists and establishment elite to his inner circle.)

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Mutex » Mon Nov 21, 2016 5:23 pm UTC

Unless I've missed something you're preaching to the choir here though, has anyone in this thread called him a brilliant businessman? Maybe a couple of the flash-in-the-pan accounts that popped up out of nowhere.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Mon Nov 21, 2016 5:30 pm UTC

No one says it, but then they come back and say "Well, he must not be too bad if he can come back from bankruptcy." - and then people assume I must be saying he's a horrible businessman - I'm just saying that it means absolutely nothing (which of course, means I have to give a detailed financial report, proving that Trump is a bad businessman, or my point is invalid).
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby elasto » Mon Nov 21, 2016 5:44 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:Unless I've missed something you're preaching to the choir here though, has anyone in this thread called him a brilliant businessman? Maybe a couple of the flash-in-the-pan accounts that popped up out of nowhere.

And yet tens of millions did vote for him on that basis. Statistically it seems implausible that none of them read here.

If a few can be persuaded not to vote for Trump in 2020 that's some small victory at least.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Nov 21, 2016 5:56 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:No one says it, but then they come back and say "Well, he must not be too bad if he can come back from bankruptcy." - and then people assume I must be saying he's a horrible businessman - I'm just saying that it means absolutely nothing (which of course, means I have to give a detailed financial report, proving that Trump is a bad businessman, or my point is invalid).


We were arguing with Hippo, who was claiming exactly that.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Mon Nov 21, 2016 6:00 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:
Thesh wrote:No one says it, but then they come back and say "Well, he must not be too bad if he can come back from bankruptcy." - and then people assume I must be saying he's a horrible businessman - I'm just saying that it means absolutely nothing (which of course, means I have to give a detailed financial report, proving that Trump is a bad businessman, or my point is invalid).


We were arguing with Hippo, who was claiming exactly that.


And cphite is the one who made the point that Trump must not be that bad if he survived bankruptcy, which is who I responded to.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Mon Nov 21, 2016 6:12 pm UTC

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... ge%2Fstory

People need to read this story, to understand a viewpoint that is rather important.

The voters who went Trump see "the Left" in the above manner. The left is selfish, living in their own worlds and unable to see the viewpoints of other people. They take every opportunity to lecture and demean without listening to the voters. And when the world pushes back on their viewpoints, they respond with "safe spaces" to keep out the thoughts that they don't like.

Now I don't necessarily agree with the entire characterization, but if the left actually wants to win the next political fight, they need to reckon how their opponents see them and learn how to combat the characterization.

----------

I personally thought that the Hamelton crew did a good job with their message to A Wet Rag Stuffed Into a Tailpipe, but the whole situation has been politicized and no longer is about the actual event.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Izawwlgood » Mon Nov 21, 2016 6:13 pm UTC

morriswalters wrote:
Thesh wrote:
morriswalters wrote:
Thesh wrote:But again, he came back from those Bankruptcies and defaults only because he had the money to afford the lawyers that could exploit the tax loophole.
Exactly how much of Trump's financial activity are you privy to?


This is a known fact - when his casino's failed, he didn't take a loss, other people took the loss, primarily the banks and the new investors to the private company he ran into the ground.
Trump is seventy. How much do you know about his business over that span of time? How much other data do you have to support your contention? Tax returns, financial statements, public sources? One of the most aggravating things about his candidacy from my perspective was how little we actually knew about him.

I remember in 2008 how much people criticized Obama for 'flipflopping', and saying they didn't know where he stood on issues. Trump has contradicted himself sentence to sentence, and no one seems to care.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby The Great Hippo » Mon Nov 21, 2016 6:19 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:At that level, everyone exploits "tax loopholes". It's normal and legal, they do it.

As an aside, the greater difficulty the non-rich have in benefitting from certain tax laws is a good reason for cleaning up the tax code, but if we're talking about how well the rich run businesses, it's basically a non factor. Just part of the playing field.
It's not just him exploiting tax laws, it's him exploiting tax laws in a way that screws over his investors. This is bad business -- keep screwing over your investors and you'll run out of investors who trust you. We kind of see this with Trump; there are signs he was basically boned until The Apprentice came along and he switched careers from business to Hollywood.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Mon Nov 21, 2016 6:29 pm UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:keep screwing over your investors and you'll run out of investors who trust you.


In fact, Trump has so few people trusting him that people just voted for him for President.

Your line of argument is null-and-void now. Trump is President. We all feel kinda bad about it, but I don't think that this line of discussion is going to move the world forward in any way. The fact of the matter is, people trust Trump and we are forced to trust Trump now (see Obama's response in the world stage).
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby morriswalters » Mon Nov 21, 2016 6:30 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:But again, he came back from those Bankruptcies and defaults only because he had the money to afford the lawyers that could exploit the tax loophole. He didn't run his business well from any meaningful standpoint, but he was, in fact, still rich so he didn't have to suffer any consequences.
Thesh wrote:I'm just saying that it means absolutely nothing (which of course, means I have to give a detailed financial report, proving that Trump is a bad businessman, or my point is invalid).
I think I know what you mean, but it isn't what you said. You made an assertion that he didn't run his business well. You can infer some things. Trumps business is his Brand according to him. His name has sufficient cache that businesses will pay for the use of it. He had a successful Reality show. He ran a successful campaign for President and it gave the Trump name a personal boost that you can't value highly enough. It suggests a modicum of success at managing the value in his Name. And that appears to be his business. You have no reliable numbers to suggest otherwise. Estimates of his wealth are just estimates. His are higher but no one is suggesting less than a couple of billion. By any metric you want to choose the Donald seems to have done pretty good. That infers that he has run his current business pretty damn good.

[rant]The Democrats took him for a dunce. Hillary is crying big tears over that mistake. He clocked her in the only election that matters, in the Electoral College. It's about time for liberals to consider the question, is Donald as dumb as we think he is?[/rant]

As a side note to Sardia, this is my opinion about why old people are conservative. Hillary has no time left on the clock. This was her shot and she blew it. Age prevents her recovery. That knowledge make you conservative.
Izawwlgood wrote:Trump has contradicted himself sentence to sentence, and no one seems to care.
People currently seeing what they want to see, they are filtering. In time the filters will fray. Trump has no real record in terms of his ability to do this job. He's a cypher.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Zamfir » Mon Nov 21, 2016 6:35 pm UTC

I can't speak for others, but this is how I got drawn into this discussion (which I think is a relevant one)

Trump projects a golden letter reality-tv version of himself as businessman. If you scratch the faux-gold surface, it's soon clear that this version is mostly empty. He's not anywhere as rich as he claims, he started off with a lot already, and there's a constant undertone of scammy behaviour even by the low standards of real estate developers. Nearly everyone here agrees on this.

But I sense in several comment here (and elsewhere) an overshoot in the other direction. They describe Trump as a nitwit who did little but gamble with his father's wealth and connections, with perhaps some lucky wins.

And that strikes me as a dangerous view, leading to a constant underestimation of Trump. By the standards of Manhattan real estate developers, he's a very mediocre businessman, perhaps even an outright failure. But that's like those C-team Formula 1 drivers who only get a seat because they brought in a sponsor for the team. They might not match up to the top drivers, but in most other races they would be unbeatable aces. And yes, they got that way unfairly, because their daddy bought them racing cars from age 12 on. It still a skill.

Trump presents these vague but confident plans where the actual contents change by the day, but it's still discussed as a major thing, people project their own dreams on the plan, and criticism just seems to wash off. That's not stupidity even if it looks like it. It's a skill many politicians would murder for. He pulls it off because he has a real talent for it, then spent another 40 years practising his sales pitches in the pro league. And unlike most businessmen he spent a lot of time talking to the masses as well. He's not a major star as manhattan developer or as TV celebrity, but both are rarified clubs where constant mediocrity is already nearly the top of the pyramid.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Soupspoon » Mon Nov 21, 2016 6:41 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:Trump has no interest in destroying the economy. That wouldn't benefit him at all.

Wouldn't it?

Maybe being POTUS, he might hold off, but relevant analogue and historically he hasn't been shy of bankrupting his own businesses...

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Mon Nov 21, 2016 6:47 pm UTC

morriswalters wrote:I think I know what you mean, but it isn't what you said. You made an assertion that he didn't run his business well.


I was responding to this:

An example of a terrible businessman would be someone who didn't come back from all of those bankruptcies and defaults.


"He didn't run his business well from a meaningful standpoint" was referring to cphite's example of him going into bankruptcy and coming out of it - that is, he may or may not have ran his business well, but it doesn't really matter because him coming out of bankruptcy had nothing to do with being a good businessman, and everything to do with having certain privileges. You don't get credit for having privilege.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:00 pm UTC

Soupspoon wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:Trump has no interest in destroying the economy. That wouldn't benefit him at all.

Wouldn't it?

Maybe being POTUS, he might hold off, but relevant analogue and historically he hasn't been shy of bankrupting his own businesses...


Erm... the point of a businessman is to buy businesses when bubbles pop.

Recessions and bear markets is where all of the money is made. Everyone sells, and if you are in a cash-rich position (as Trump alleges he was in 2007), then yes, you really do want a recession to happen. That's just common sense and expected behavior. Personally speaking, during the 2007 crash, I was eyeing the stock market like crazy. I couldn't afford stocks until 2010 or so, but when I finally saved up the money for it I still made over 50% gains.

If I had more cash earlier in my life, I probably would have made closer to 100% gains from the crash. So yeah. I totally would "root" for the next recession if I had the money to do so.

EDIT: More importantly, these buyers who swoop in at rock bottom, when the rest of the world is in panic, are the ones who start the process of recovery. It takes a lot of nerve to think "This is Fine" when most people are freaking about about 5-digit or 6-digit losses in their 401k plans. But those people who come in at those worst-of-times to buy stocks and restart the investing... they get the most gains and prevent the recession from getting deeper.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby morriswalters » Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:02 pm UTC

I don't think I've mischaracterized your position, however I acknowledge that you disagree and I'll let the point go.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:04 pm UTC

My first post was poorly worded. I probably should have said "That's not an example of him running a business well from any meaningful standpoint."
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby The Great Hippo » Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:09 pm UTC

Zamfir wrote:He's not a major star as manhattan developer or as TV celebrity, but both are rarified clubs where constant mediocrity is already nearly the top of the pyramid.
Okay. I can agree with that phrasing, and I think I see where you're coming from; my struggle is against the notion that Trump could ever really succeed outside of his ecosystem (and his apparent obliviousness to this).

Like, Stephanie Meyer (of Twilight fame) is a wildly successful writer. But calling her a good writer -- even a mediocre one -- seems like an insult to good writing. Her prose reads like the back of cereal boxes fed through five cycles of Google translate and her plot points are the sort of thing authors from fanfiction.net would consider too trashy to post.

She's successful because she exists in a very particular niche that, yeah, elevates mediocrity (and even terribleness) to super-stardom. But even describing her as a mediocre author is painful to me, because -- as someone who takes writing seriously -- I find it hard to separate my disdain for her prose from the ecosystem that rewards it. "Mediocre" feels far too weak in this context; her writing -- and the absurd success that surrounds it -- is a goddamn Greek tragedy. And not one of the fun ones; I'm talking that one where you kill your father, have sex with your mom, stab needles into your eyes, and spend the rest of your life wandering the earth in despair.

I guess what I'm saying is that Donald Trump is the Stephanie Meyer of the business world.

EDIT: In retrospect, since Donald Trump has apparently (allegedly?) written erotic fiction, it might be better to say that Donald Trump is the Stephanie Meyer of the literary world, too. Dude's got range.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:10 pm UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:I guess what I'm saying is that Donald Trump is the Stephanie Meyer of the business world.


But Trump isn't in the world of business anymore.

He's in the world of politics. And lets be frank, politics is nothing more than just a giant popularity contest. Be it skill or personality or just dumb luck, the fact remains that Trump is a political force.

Even if he lost the election, we all knew that Trump's supporters would continue to be a major force through a hypothetical Hillary Clinton presidency. Trump is the face of a national-movement, one that is strong enough for him to become President.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby The Great Hippo » Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:14 pm UTC

I wasn't talking about Trump's political competence; only his competence in business.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:19 pm UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:I wasn't talking about Trump's political competence; only his competence in business.


Does it matter what his actual competence is?

Four years from now, we'll be talking about Trump's political decisions. No one will give a crap about his business record by then... just like no one really cares about the acting-career of Ronald Regan within the world of Politics.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Izawwlgood » Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:22 pm UTC

morriswalters wrote:
Izawwlgood wrote:Trump has contradicted himself sentence to sentence, and no one seems to care.
People currently seeing what they want to see, they are filtering. In time the filters will fray. Trump has no real record in terms of his ability to do this job. He's a cypher.
I'm very hopeful that this will happen before something awful has gone through, but based on the blinders I'm seeing the right wearing here, I don't think they will.

I mean, going into 2008 I knew that Obama had changed his views on some things, but I was alright with it because the things he was campaigning on were things that I agreed with. Trump has contradicted himself day to day, and the right doesn't seem to care. And this isn't 'oh he compromised', this is 'he did the opposite of what he said he would do'. This isn't 'he moved to the middle', this is 'the perception of him is outright false'.

I worry that outright falsehood has become normalized to the point of being irrelevant in our political discourse, for a variety of reasons, but it most certainly makes any sort of conversation difficult. The amount of gish gallop is RAMPANT.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby The Great Hippo » Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:25 pm UTC

KnightExemplar wrote:
The Great Hippo wrote:I wasn't talking about Trump's political competence; only his competence in business.


Does it matter what his actual competence is?

Four years from now, we'll be talking about Trump's political decisions. No one will give a crap about his business record by then... just like no one really cares about the acting-career of Ronald Regan within the world of Politics.
And in a couple of billion years, the sun will swallow up the earth and no one will care about any of this because we'll all be dead!

I was talking about why I thought of Trump as an incompetent businessman. Whether you think that's irrelevant to what you want to talk about is besides the point; it's what I wanted to talk about, so it's what I talked about.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:36 pm UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:
KnightExemplar wrote:
The Great Hippo wrote:I wasn't talking about Trump's political competence; only his competence in business.


Does it matter what his actual competence is?

Four years from now, we'll be talking about Trump's political decisions. No one will give a crap about his business record by then... just like no one really cares about the acting-career of Ronald Regan within the world of Politics.
And in a couple of billion years, the sun will swallow up the earth and no one will care about any of this because we'll all be dead!

I was talking about why I thought of Trump as an incompetent businessman. Whether you think that's irrelevant to what you want to talk about is besides the point; it's what I wanted to talk about, so it's what I talked about.


Fair enough.

But the fact of the matter is, Trump is beginning to actually do stuff... from his appointment of Steve Bannon to White House Chief of Staff, or Mike Pompeo as CIA head. These issues do deserve discussion.

Perhaps I should make a new topic about these important news events?

Ehhh... I dunno how to run the conversation.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby The Great Hippo » Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:43 pm UTC

I think we all possess sufficient cleverness to have multiple conversations at once.

If it helps, Bannon recently gave an interview where he extolled the virtues of darkness, and mentioned Darth Vader as inspiration.

I strongly suspect history will describe this as the "post-Trump" era of American politics.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:52 pm UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:
Zamfir wrote:He's not a major star as manhattan developer or as TV celebrity, but both are rarified clubs where constant mediocrity is already nearly the top of the pyramid.
Okay. I can agree with that phrasing, and I think I see where you're coming from; my struggle is against the notion that Trump could ever really succeed outside of his ecosystem (and his apparent obliviousness to this).


People keep counting on that. I've lost count of the number of people who believed he couldn't possibly win the primary. And then, the general. He was always destined for failure, they were sure.

When reality doesn't match up to the predictions, it's worth stopping to question the assumptions those predictions are based on.

When someone has become President of the US, we're a touch past the point where we should be assuming that he can't do politics. Obviously, he can.

There's a strong tendency to bash people we dislike on some score as being generally bad at everything(Halo effect), but as Zamfir says, that's how you underestimate someone. I've actually had this conversation with a bunch of ya'll before. After he won the primary, and when people were currently saying he couldn't win the general, waaay back in this thread. Underestimating someone is dangerous. I think it's one reason why we have the usual back and forth in our parties. When one party gets sufficiently powerful to start disregarding, ignoring, and underestimating the other, well, that gives them an edge to stage a comeback.

The current situation is odd, though. The democrats are clearly the underdogs, and yet many of them do not seem to recognize the situation. Some seem to be certain that this is some minor thing, and the opposition is a collection of buffoons and undesirables. This view seems deeply unlikely to be factual. Roughly as unlikely as those holding out hope that somehow, faithless electors or the like will somehow stop Trump. Self delusion isn't going to fix anything.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby morriswalters » Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:07 pm UTC

Izawwlgood wrote:but based on the blinders I'm seeing the right wearing here
Well don't discount the possibility that we might have some as well.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby gmalivuk » Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:22 pm UTC

KnightExemplar wrote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/hamilton-and-the-implosion-of-the-american-left/2016/11/21/acc6a45c-aff8-11e6-be1c-8cec35b1ad25_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-f%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

People need to read this story, to understand a viewpoint that is rather important.

The voters who went Trump see "the Left" in the above manner. The left is selfish, living in their own worlds and unable to see the viewpoints of other people. They take every opportunity to lecture and demean without listening to the voters. And when the world pushes back on their viewpoints, they respond with "safe spaces" to keep out the thoughts that they don't like.

If they actually objected to the idea of safe spaces (instead of just objecting to safe spaces for *other* people), they maybe shouldn't have elected someone as thin-skinned as Trump, who wants everywhere to be a safe space from any criticism of Trump, and they maybe shouldn't be in league with folks who want the entire country to be a "safe space" for American-born white Christians.

Like, seriously, the people who voted to make America "great" are complaining that theater kids are being disrespectful and Starbucks isn't coddling them with overtly Christian imagery on their holiday cups?

(The reason I dislike some of the Hamilton coverage is because it's all distracting, and I believe was intended to distract us from the $25 million fraud settlement Trump just made.)
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:40 pm UTC

It's mostly straight partisanship in practice. Both sides hate criticism of their idea, but love lobbing it at the other side in general. And of course, Trump is a big ball of ego.

That said, the left has generally championed safe spaces more than the right, and while the Republicans were also unhappy at Obama being elected, they were not let out of school to mourn the occasion.

I've also never seen anyone actually complaining about Starbucks Christmas cups. I've seen endless people complaining about the complainers, whoever they are, but not the actual thing. And I drink a metric shitton of coffee, and one of my buds works at Starbucks. I'm sure there's someone, somewhere, who complains, particularly now that cups are evidently part of the partisan battlefield, but for the most part, Republican sorts either give zero craps about cups, or are not the kind of person who goes to Starbucks anyways, and views the entire idea of $5 lattes as some sort of elitist strangeness.

It's mostly about the huge amount of otherness at play here. It's not that they can't be offended, because anyone who is human probably can be, it's that the left might as well be lizard people to them for all the cultures have in common. Phrases such as "ivory tower" have long described the view of leftists as elitists who shun outside opinions.

Studies bear this out, with liberals significantly more likely to unfriend people over differing political viewpoints than conservatives. http://www.journalism.org/2014/10/21/political-polarization-media-habits/. Note that the study predates Trump's election cycle, so you can hardly reverse causality here. People on the left really are more intolerant of other views.

Or maybe people on the right are just more optimistic that everyone really thinks similarly to them. The barrier of "similarly" seems wider on the right. It's another way to look at it perhaps...it's still more inclusive, but in a different manner. Probably the best explanation for all data, rather than just that one bit.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby The Great Hippo » Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:45 pm UTC

Tyndmyr, I think you're misunderstanding my point? I'm saying Trump's victory demonstrates that the ecosystem he prospered in at Wall Street translates to Washington. I'm not saying I expect him to fail; by all appearances, he'll continue to succeed.

I'm confused by why people think I'm underestimating him. I'm the one who was talking about whether or not he could swing internment camps, remember? Just because I think he's a ridiculous clown doesn't mean I don't think he'll get what he wants; buffoonery and incompetence have a peculiar strength. They wouldn't be so pervasive otherwise.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:51 pm UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:Tyndmyr, I think you're misunderstanding my point? I'm saying Trump's victory demonstrates that the ecosystem he prospered in at Wall Street translates to Washington. I'm not saying I expect him to fail; by all appearances, he'll continue to succeed.

I'm confused by why people think I'm underestimating him. I'm the one who was talking about whether or not he could swing internment camps, remember? Just because I think he's a ridiculous clown doesn't mean I don't think he'll get what he wants; buffoonery and incompetence have a peculiar strength. They wouldn't be so pervasive otherwise.


Because you were talking about him as being terrible at business. Logically, that doesn't flow with what you're describing here as continued success.

It doesn't make sense to say "he gets whatever he wants because he's incompetent". Success comes from competence. Perhaps it's a different style, skillset, or viewpoint than you prefer, but he's absolutely competent at many things.

Incompetence is not strength.

Pervasiveness is not evidence of desirability.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Dark567 » Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:57 pm UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:Tyndmyr, I think you're misunderstanding my point? I'm saying Trump's victory demonstrates that the ecosystem he prospered in at Wall Street translates to Washington.
I don't think most people consider Trump's business within the Wall Street metonym.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:58 pm UTC

gmalivuk wrote:
KnightExemplar wrote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/hamilton-and-the-implosion-of-the-american-left/2016/11/21/acc6a45c-aff8-11e6-be1c-8cec35b1ad25_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-f%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

People need to read this story, to understand a viewpoint that is rather important.

The voters who went Trump see "the Left" in the above manner. The left is selfish, living in their own worlds and unable to see the viewpoints of other people. They take every opportunity to lecture and demean without listening to the voters. And when the world pushes back on their viewpoints, they respond with "safe spaces" to keep out the thoughts that they don't like.

If they actually objected to the idea of safe spaces (instead of just objecting to safe spaces for *other* people), they maybe shouldn't have elected someone as thin-skinned as Trump, who wants everywhere to be a safe space from any criticism of Trump, and they maybe shouldn't be in league with folks who want the entire country to be a "safe space" for American-born white Christians.


On the contrary.

There are people I know who basically want Trump to throw the temper-tantrum to end PC culture.

Very few supporters of Trump "own" him. They see him as a force of chaos to fuck the East Coast elites. But as soon as you start talking about ways that Trump can fuck people they care about over, they immediately say "Well, Paul Ryan will stop that" (or insert other conservative name in there)
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby The Great Hippo » Mon Nov 21, 2016 9:02 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:Because you were talking about him as being terrible at business. Logically, that doesn't flow with what you're describing here as continued success.

It doesn't make sense to say "he gets whatever he wants because he's incompetent". Success comes from competence. Perhaps it's a different style, skillset, or viewpoint than you prefer, but he's absolutely competent at many things.

Incompetence is not strength.

Pervasiveness is not evidence of desirability.
So, I presume you think Stephanie Meyer is a highly competent author? xD

Maybe we're just quibbling over definitions; alternatively, perhaps your particular experiences have led you to see a world where success correlates strongly with competence -- and mine have led me to see a world where the correlation is far more muddled and complex.

Call it the dark side of the Dunnig-Kruger effect, maybe -- there's a power to having an ego that far outshines your ability, especially in fields where how you are perceived is of paramount importance.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Tyndmyr » Mon Nov 21, 2016 9:08 pm UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:
Tyndmyr wrote:Because you were talking about him as being terrible at business. Logically, that doesn't flow with what you're describing here as continued success.

It doesn't make sense to say "he gets whatever he wants because he's incompetent". Success comes from competence. Perhaps it's a different style, skillset, or viewpoint than you prefer, but he's absolutely competent at many things.

Incompetence is not strength.

Pervasiveness is not evidence of desirability.
So, I presume you think Stephanie Meyer is a highly competent author? xD

Maybe we're just quibbling over definitions; alternatively, perhaps your particular experiences have led you to see a world where success correlates strongly with competence -- and mine have led me to see a world where the correlation is far more muddled and complex.

Call it the dark side of the Dunnig-Kruger effect, maybe -- there's a power to having an ego that far outshines your ability, especially in fields where how you are perceived is of paramount importance.


This gets back into the "luck" conversation.

Luck doesn't exist. It isn't an actual thing. Luck is the label we slap on things we do not wish to understand, because they are too complicated, difficult, or unpleasant. You don't have good luck. You don't have bad luck. Neither does Stephanie Meyer.

She provided something many people wanted to read. Yes, maybe you believe, deep down, that you could write something better, and that mere "luck" is the reason why she is successful. But, she wrote the books. People liked them. Maybe it's the McDonalds burger of the book world, but shit, McDonalds sells a lot of burgers. Don't discount competence just because the skill or result is insufficiently snooty and respected.

Trump has skills. They may not be skills you like, respect, or desire for yourself, but he does have them all the same.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Dark567 » Mon Nov 21, 2016 9:11 pm UTC

The Great Hippo wrote:So, I presume you think Stephanie Meyer is a highly competent author? xD
Somewhat? Look, she is definitely not a good writer, but there is definitely a skill in finding untapped niches and exploiting them. Sure there was probably a good amount of luck involved but its not all luck here, she still had to sit down and decide to write about the topic. Trump is much the same way. He has knack for find shady behaviour that he can get away with and exploiting it.

Call it the dark side of the Dunnig-Kruger effect, maybe -- there's a power to having an ego that far outshines your ability, especially in fields where how you are perceived is of paramount importance.
Having that Ego is in some ways an ability in itself.
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