2016 US Presidential Election

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Quizatzhaderac » Wed Mar 02, 2016 6:59 pm UTC

jewish_scientist wrote:The first election where I knew the names of the candidates was McCain vs. Obama. For every presidential election that I, and probably most of my generation remember, the Republicans have nominated someone who could not win*. If Trump becomes the Republican nominee, then 16 years of our lives will have been spent the thinking 'Republicans are stupid'.
Your math doesn't seem to add up.
McCain vs Obama was 8 years ago, and the generation that remembers only that election and later isn't allowed to vote yet. And your comments elsewhere suggest you're older than that. Unless you mean as the first election they participated in?
Also, Trump winning this election would only add 4 years of stupid nomination.
leady wrote:Slight aside, but Mormonism... is that treated as the insanity that it really is In the states?
Their theology seems wonky to me, and I expect it seems an added layer of wonky to atheists. But the Mormons I've actually met (never been to Utah) have treated others reasonably and with respect and compassion; so I'll judge them on that.

The importance of theology is often overstated, and outsiders tend to be spectacularly bad at determining the implications of theology.
leady wrote:People who live off bread and circuses are hard to convert to the idea of self reliance and personal liberty I fear
That complete lack of nuance doesn't help either. When your rhetoric is dichotomous like that, the good half can sound very Orwellian.
Tyndmyr wrote:Any "gop conspiracy" tale runs into a pretty basic issue of competence. I just have a really, really hard time believing that this lot is good enough to pull together a half decent plot to do anything, given demonstrated results.
Deliberate conspiracies like that are indeed rare (because incompetence), but policies with system consequences other than the stated goal are very common.

Sardia is likely referring to efforts to prevent voter fraud, that primarily affect under-documented citizens trying to vote legitimately. Of course you're right in that this incompetence can't be re-targeted wherever the GOP wishes.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Mar 02, 2016 8:09 pm UTC

So I think Carson has dropped out. He wasn't clear. He basically said "I'm not going to participate in debates and I know I won't win, but I'm making too much money on donations and book sales to quit campaigning."
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Lazar » Wed Mar 02, 2016 8:45 pm UTC

I definitely knew who Clinton and Dole were when I was 7 (although I had little idea of what they stood for), and I was acutely aware of the Gore-Bush debacle at age 11.

I think a more incisive point to be made about Republican electoral success is that the Republican candidate has lost the popular vote in 5 of the past 6 presidential elections. 6 out of 7 if they lose this year.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby freezeblade » Wed Mar 02, 2016 8:49 pm UTC

Clinton/Dole i don't remember much from, too young.
However, all of the Bush elections I was quite aware of, and I think that was about the time that I became very upset at the electoral college system, why do we keep it on again? besides tradition.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Wed Mar 02, 2016 8:50 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:So I think Carson has dropped out. He wasn't clear. He basically said "I'm not going to participate in debates and I know I won't win, but I'm making too much money on donations and book sales to quit campaigning."


Yeah, this makes a lot more sense than what he actually said.

However, all of the Bush elections I was quite aware of, and I think that was about the time that I became very upset at the electoral college system, why do we keep it on again? besides tradition.


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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby SDK » Wed Mar 02, 2016 9:20 pm UTC

So what's best case scenario at this point?

Hillary Clinton wins the presidency and does an okay job at not completely screwing up. The Republican party implodes, either splitting into multiple parties (finally relieving the US of the two party system that is largely at fault for your current situation) or reinventing itself into something not-crazy. That kind of depends on Americans themselves changing though, which is a tough one... That also depends on the Republicans losing the election... which is going to happen... right?
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby freezeblade » Wed Mar 02, 2016 9:24 pm UTC

SDK wrote:That also depends on the Republicans losing the election... which is going to happen... right?


As much as I'd love to see Bernie get the nomination...I'm about 85% sure it's going to be Hillary vs. Trump, and a 75% chance of Hillary winning.

I'm pretty sure that the two party system is too ingrained within the US for it to change, I do think that in the unlikely event that Trump doesn't get the nomination, he'll run as third party, and the teapartiers and more religious extremes will cling to that new party.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Mighty Jalapeno » Wed Mar 02, 2016 9:40 pm UTC

SDK wrote:So what's best case scenario at this point?

Hillary Clinton wins the presidency...

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Mar 02, 2016 9:45 pm UTC

The best *likely* scenario? Hillary will win but face a Republican majority in the House through her first four years who will spend half their time in Benghazi hearings and the rest passing bills they know Hillary will have to veto, with the occasional budget showdown where we are placed at the verge of default, with at least one partial government shutdown. At some point in that time there will be a recession that will continue through 2020, Hillary will lose in 2020, and Republicans will take over the House, Senate, and Presidency. Republicans will institute tax cuts for businesses and the wealthy and spending cuts to reduce the deficit to get us out of the recession, which won't work. They will then continue with deregulation and anti-immigration policies, while ignoring the fact that wages will be declining for most Americans. The public will get fed up, and Democrats will take over in 2024, do the bare minimum to get us out of recession, wages will then stagnate as we spend the next 8 years slowly seeing unemployment decline and wages flatten off below their pre-recession norm, as we freak out more about the debt and deficit, cut social security, and struggle with lowering poverty.

Worst case scenario, Trump wins and the same thing happens, but faster and with more war and fewer hearings.

I may be a bit cynical, however.

EDIT: There's probably a payroll tax increase in there somewhere as well.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Mar 02, 2016 9:47 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:The best *likely* scenario? Hillary will win but face a Republican majority in the House through her first four years who will spend half their time in Benghazi hearings and the rest passing bills they know Hillary will have to veto, with the occasional budget showdown where we are placed at the verge of default, with at least one partial government shutdown. At some point in that time there will be a recession that will continue through 2020, Hillary will lose in 2020, and Republicans will take over the House, Senate, and Presidency. Republicans will institute tax cuts for businesses and the wealthy and spending cuts to reduce the deficit to get us out of the recession, which won't work. They will then continue with deregulation and anti-immigration policies, while ignoring the fact that wages will be declining for most Americans. The public will get fed up, and Democrats will take over in 2024, do the bare minimum to get us out of recession, wages will then stagnate as we spend the next 8 years slowly seeing unemployment decline and wages flatten off below their pre-recession norm, as we freak out more about the debt and deficit, cut social security, and struggle with lowering poverty.

Worst case scenario, Trump wins and the same thing happens, but faster and with more war and fewer hearings.

I may be a bit cynical, however.


May I suggest moving to Canada?

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Mar 02, 2016 9:54 pm UTC

I considered it, but Colorado has legalized marijuana, so I'm moving there this summer.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Mighty Jalapeno » Wed Mar 02, 2016 9:57 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:May I suggest moving to Canada?

Sorry, we're closing our borders to refugees from not-actually-physically-destroyed countries.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby SDK » Wed Mar 02, 2016 10:02 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:I considered it, but Colorado has legalized marijuana, so I'm moving there this summer.

Canada's working on it nationally. Should happen within the next couple years.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby cphite » Wed Mar 02, 2016 10:03 pm UTC

SDK wrote:So what's best case scenario at this point?


Small comet strikes downtown Washington DC on Inauguration Day.

Hillary Clinton wins the presidency and does an okay job at not completely screwing up.


Assuming she isn't forced to drop out by federal charges against her, she'll make a horrible president. All the blind ideology of Obama but without the moral compass.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Mar 02, 2016 10:10 pm UTC

SDK wrote:
Thesh wrote:I considered it, but Colorado has legalized marijuana, so I'm moving there this summer.

Canada's working on it nationally. Should happen within the next couple years.


Not soon enough!

In all seriousness, I did consider moving to Canada in the past, mostly for the health care system, but I decided against it because it's a real pain in the ass to move to another country. They don't issue health care Visa's that allow you to stay in the country so long as you are seeing the doctor regularly for routine checkups.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby freezeblade » Wed Mar 02, 2016 10:23 pm UTC

cphite wrote:she'll [Hillary] make a horrible president. All the blind ideology of Obama but without the moral compass.


Hillary strikes me as many things, but ideologue isn't one of those things. I don't know if she holds any type of ideology other than "keep it steady" or "carry on." She'll say plenty, but I feel it's only what she thinks will get her elected.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Wed Mar 02, 2016 10:41 pm UTC

cphite wrote:
SDK wrote:So what's best case scenario at this point?


Small comet strikes downtown Washington DC on Inauguration Day.

Hillary Clinton wins the presidency and does an okay job at not completely screwing up.


Assuming she isn't forced to drop out by federal charges against her, she'll make a horrible president. All the blind ideology of Obama but without the moral compass.

I don't understand your concept of the political spectrum. Is Cruz and rubio in the middle while Obama and Hillary are in the far left? Is Sanders so far left that he wraps around?.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby maybeagnostic » Wed Mar 02, 2016 10:45 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:Worst case scenario, Trump wins and the same thing happens, but faster and with more war and fewer hearings.

I am starting to seriously think that President Drumpf isn't the worst outcome. It will likely be disastrous in the short term but he'd just barely manage to get elected and then quickly disappoint many of his supporters while hopefully acting as a huge wake up call to both parties and the population in general. On the other hand a Trump that goes against Hillary and gets a third of the votes or more but loses is the basis for a fairly massive and scary political movement in the perfect position to grow in size and influence. That is based on an assumption that Hillary as President won't really try to push for any serious structural changes but will instead play the typical Washington political games while doing the bare minimum to get reelected in 2020.

freezeblade wrote:
cphite wrote:she'll [Hillary] make a horrible president. All the blind ideology of Obama but without the moral compass.


Hillary strikes me as many things, but ideologue isn't one of those things. I don't know if she holds any type of ideology other than "keep it steady" or "carry on." She'll say plenty, but I feel it's only what she thinks will get her elected.
I don't think Hillary was ever idealistic and Obama hasn't been particularly idealistic for years either.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Mar 02, 2016 10:55 pm UTC

sardia wrote:
cphite wrote:
SDK wrote:So what's best case scenario at this point?


Small comet strikes downtown Washington DC on Inauguration Day.

Hillary Clinton wins the presidency and does an okay job at not completely screwing up.


Assuming she isn't forced to drop out by federal charges against her, she'll make a horrible president. All the blind ideology of Obama but without the moral compass.

I don't understand your concept of the political spectrum. Is Cruz and rubio in the middle while Obama and Hillary are in the far left? Is Sanders so far left that he wraps around?.


If Sanders wraps around, is someone a moderate again if they propose ending private ownership of land and fixed structures, eliminating corporations that allow individuals to own unequal and/or individually transferrable shares of a business, such that only worker cooperatives, consumer cooperatives, credit unions, purchasing cooperatives, and similar arrangements can exist?
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Mighty Jalapeno » Wed Mar 02, 2016 10:59 pm UTC

Thesh wrote:If Sanders wraps around, is someone a moderate again if they propose ending private ownership of land and fixed structures, eliminating corporations that allow individuals to own unequal and/or individually transferrable shares of a business, such that only worker cooperatives, consumer cooperatives, credit unions, purchasing cooperatives, and similar arrangements can exist?

Probably not, but fortunately no-one even remotely associated with the Presidential run is an active proponent of those things.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Thesh » Wed Mar 02, 2016 11:17 pm UTC

What about Mimi Soltysik?
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Thu Mar 03, 2016 12:05 am UTC

Well, at least we got this from Trump / Christie.

Which the new Daily Show has already taken to making fun of.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Isaac Hill » Thu Mar 03, 2016 2:34 am UTC

Mormonism gets a pass because Scientology is more bonkers and higher profile.

freezeblade wrote:Clinton/Dole i don't remember much from, too young.
However, all of the Bush elections I was quite aware of, and I think that was about the time that I became very upset at the electoral college system, why do we keep it on again? besides tradition.
The Electoral College could still serve some purpose, in theory.

Suppose one political party had so many candidates, that its mainstream vote was split multiple ways, allowing a madman to win the nomination with a plurality of support, but not a majority. Then, suppose that the nominee of the other major party was embroiled in some scandal that made him or her unacceptable to most of the country, such as being indicted for violations of national security. People would then vote for the madman as the only alternative to the security risk, not due to support for the madman himself. The madman could then win the popular vote without ever truly having the support of the majority of the country, or even his own party. The Electoral College could then step in and elect someone else President.

This purely hypothetical situation is incredibly unlikely. Even if a madman did win the popular vote in such a manner, 29 states and D.C. have laws against Electors doing this. I don't know if the remaining 21 states constitute enough electoral votes to decide the election. The madman would have to be so unpopular with other politicians that at least some Governors of those 29 states would be willing to pardon Electors who vote faithlessly.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby commodorejohn » Thu Mar 03, 2016 3:26 am UTC

Isaac Hill wrote:Mormonism gets a pass because Scientology is more bonkers and higher profile.

Also because if Mormonism bothers you all you have to do is not live in Utah.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KittenKaboodle » Thu Mar 03, 2016 3:37 am UTC

Lazar wrote:I definitely knew who Clinton and Dole were when I was 7 (although I had little idea of what they stood for), and I was acutely aware of the Gore-Bush debacle at age 11.


Pretty much all I remember about Goldwater is his name (you kids get off my lawn). Though I do have a recollection of the "Daisy girl" ad. but I'm not sure the memory of that is contemporary or if I saw a later rebroadcast.

While I don't remember it, Wikipedia has this little tidbit:

"Confessions of a Republican", another Johnson ad, features a monologue from a man who tells us that he had previously voted for Eisenhower and Nixon, but now worries about the "men with strange ideas", "weird groups" and "the head of the Ku Klux Klan" who were supporting Goldwater; he concludes that "either they're not Republicans, or I'm not".

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Lazar » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:01 am UTC

The DoJ has granted immunity to a former Clinton staffer involved with her email server. They're going after somebody – maybe Hillary herself, maybe Huma Abedin – and either way, it's not going to be good for her campaign.

With Bernie's lackluster performance on Super Tuesday, I'm increasingly thinking that his best shot is to be the plan B candidate if Hillary goes down – and his insistence that he plans to contest every state until the convention seems consistent with this. People are still trying to construct Bernie victory scenarios, but they rely on yuge wins in states like California that just don't seem plausible without a major change in the race.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Thu Mar 03, 2016 4:47 pm UTC

Mitt Romney makes an anti-endorsement for Donald Trump.

Holy crap. I thought John Oliver was harsh. John Oliver is a comedian, his harshness is to be expected. I wasn't quite expecting this level of criticism from Romney. Its live right now, but Mitt Romney is being extremely critical on all of Donald Trump's flaws right now.

The line floating on the internet right now:

Mitt Romney wrote:His promises are as worthless as a degree from Trump University


EDIT: I do wonder if Mitt Romney took a lot of his talking points from John Oliver. But at least Mitt Romney has a good conservative following (ie: the people who are voting for Trump right now). So Mitt's words will resonate more with the Republican base. Based on the youtube comments and downvotes however, it seems like Trump is winning over as far as popularity... on the internet at least.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Lazar » Thu Mar 03, 2016 5:56 pm UTC

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Mighty Jalapeno » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:03 pm UTC


Fortunately it's impossible for people to feel differently about other people after four years of getting to know them.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Lazar » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:06 pm UTC

Eh, Trump has been a known quantity for decades and he had already been pushing birther nonsense. I think Romney's waffling has nothing to do with his familiarity with Trump, and everything to do with the desperation of the Republican establishment. In 2012 he was a useful endorsement, in 2016 he's an existential threat.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby sardia » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:07 pm UTC

Mighty Jalapeno wrote:

Fortunately it's impossible for people to feel differently about other people after four years of getting to know them.

For one thing, Trump wasn't a real candidate last time they spoke. Second, if you gave a fat paycheck, I'll say compliments about you too.

Really Lazar, you knew that Trump was gonna go all the way for a long time? My Bullshit detector says otherwise. You didn't know anything about trump other than he yells a lot and was on reality TV.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Lazar » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:14 pm UTC

Really Lazar, you knew that Trump was gonna go all the way for a long time? My Bullshit detector says otherwise. You didn't know anything about trump other than he yells a lot and was on reality TV.

Where are you getting this? I said that Trump was a known quantity, which he was. Everyone has known for a long time what his personality and methods are like, which is why I'm unwilling to believe that Romney just naively discovered that he was a bad person during the past year. I'm not claiming any prophetic knowledge of Trump's appeal to voters; I was just as surprised by that as everyone else.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby morriswalters » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:35 pm UTC

Lazar is right, Trump is a known quantity. The one thing you can say about Trump, he has better name recognition than almost any of the Republicans. He has more face time in front of the cameras. The things he says and the way he says them aren't a surprise. Accept for people who thought there were rules for Presidential elections.

It's kind of funny watching the Republicans tearing themselves to pieces though. I just wish I had more faith in Hillery being able to escape criminal charges over this email thing.

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:38 pm UTC

In 2012, it wasn't politically expedient of establishment Republicans to attack their base. They were willing to put up with Birthers. Remember, that Eric Cantor was deemed not right-wing enough and was ejected during his Primary. I see this as the Establishment finally saying that "enough is enough" and is beginning to attack the Tea Party base.

Mitt Romney explicitly said that enemies are using Donald Trump's words as recruitment propaganda. This is a massive change: normally this language is what the Democrats say (Clinton / Sanders has been saying it for some months now). To see that kind of criticism come from Mitt is mind-boggling.

Yes, its a shift in opinion. And I welcome it.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby doogly » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:42 pm UTC

Oh they didn't just "put up with" birthers. They cultivated that shit, and now Mitt wants to weep that this all getting a little too out of hand? Tough cookies.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:42 pm UTC

doogly wrote:Oh they didn't just "put up with" birthers. They cultivated that shit, and now Mitt wants to weep that this all getting a little too out of hand? Tough cookies.


Better late than never. Mitt ain't even running anymore, I fully appreciate his newfound sense of rationality and welcome the anti-Trump criticism.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Mighty Jalapeno » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:47 pm UTC

I'm reminded of the episode where Homer gets caught in a lie, and he just keeps watching everything spiral out of control until people get shot and killed in front of him, and he bellows "STOP! THIS HAS GONE ON JUST LONG ENOUGH!"

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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby KnightExemplar » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:51 pm UTC

Mitt Romney wrote:I understand the anger Americans feel today. In the past, our presidents have channeled that anger and forged it into resolve, into endurance and high purpose, and into the will to defeat the enemies of freedom. Our anger was transformed into energy directed for good. Mr. Trump is directing our anger for less than noble purposes. He creates scapegoats of Muslims and Mexican immigrants. He calls for the use of torture. He calls for killing the innocent children and family members of terrorists. He cheers assaults on protesters. He applauds the prospect of twisting the Constitution to limit First Amendment freedom of the press. This is the very brand of anger that has led other nations into the abyss.


I mean, does anyone here actually disagree with this? Say what you want about Mitt Romney and his hypocrisy, but it's the truth.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby doogly » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:55 pm UTC

No, but scroll down a little, where he's all "Thus we need some other, any other, remaining Republican to beat Hilary."
Trump is more brashly evil than Cruz and Rubio, but not really more evil.
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Re: 2016 US Presidential Election

Postby Lazar » Thu Mar 03, 2016 7:05 pm UTC

Indeed:

The only serious policy proposals that deal with the broad range of national challenges we confront today, come from Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich. One of these men should be our nominee.

For my part, I think Cruz is truly evil in a way that surpasses Trump. If Romney is okay with him as the nominee, then this undermines anything of reason or moderation in his remarks. He wants a candidate who'll play ball with the establishment, and nothing else.
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