## 1043: “Ablogalypse”

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### Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

Dougal666 wrote:
philip1201 wrote:In other words, learn to use statistics before you start complaining about others using statistics wrong. Linear approximation is a valid method of estimation as long as you know how to handle it, which Randall does.

Oh my, the negativity.
A first order approximation of one third (one year out of three) of a clearly non-linear graph, and extrapolated to half that distance (six months)?

I'm really not clear what statistical approach is appropriate here. Ideally you could get the actual numbers rather than the normalized data. Google claims that if you download the data then they will give you relative standard errors. You could use that, if you trust them.

Looking at the fluctuation (it looks to me like they plot every two weeks but it could be weekly) it looks so regular that probably the numbers are pretty big and you don't need much statistical power to show that yes, something is happening.

So something changed in the last couple of years, and people are increasingly asking Google about tumblr, while they are asking Google about blogs a bit less than they used to. If that increase doesn't slow down, the tumblr searches will overtake the blog searches pretty soon.

Would it be better to model the tumblr data as exponential growth, or as two linear pieces? Do you care that much? A logistic model is probably better on theoretical grounds -- things which look like exponential growth often turn out logistic -- but how well could you tease that extra parameter from the noise?

I think the basic conclusion here is that something has changed. And if nothing else changes then it will keep going on the way it is now.
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J Thomas
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### Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

It looks like they've bounced off each other.
>-)

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### Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

http://i.imgur.com/1B7nw.jpg

Its the 12th, and it came so close too!
iviv

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### Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

2 weeks later and it's not quite there; blog seems to be levelling out a bit, but with tumblr still increasing it should take the lead soon.
gaga654

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### Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

In the united states they crossed in november 2011.
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### Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

da Doctah wrote:As posted, this doesn't account for the as-yet unnamed social network buzzword that will emerge some time in the next six months and eclipse all the others.

Either I'm not paying attention, or it's late.
arthurd006_5

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### Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

>-) wrote:Oh no...
It looks like they've bounced off each other.

Yes, the future has been delayed, at least temporarily. In my copy of the report, label A suggests that this is an action by Twitter.
arthurd006_5

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### Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

webgiant wrote:
BrianB wrote:
Djehutynakht wrote:So the Mayans were two and a fraction of a month off.

Actually, it is my understanding that the Mayans had no concept of leap years and that if you subtract out all the leap days since that time, we are already past the end of the Mayan calendar.

No such luck. The calculation that puts December 2012 as the location of what on the Mayan Long Count Calendar would be the end of the 13th b'ak'tun allows for the fact that they had no concept of leap year days, as in December 2012 is what you get when you add leap year days back in.

The Mayan calendar didn't account for leap years because it doesn't measure years at all, so whether or not it accounts for leap years is irrelevant.

It's more like converting Fahrenheit to Celsius or kelvin. There's a conversion where a specific number in one translates to a specific number in the other, but the quantity measured by each unit is completely different.

Yeah, I know I'm responding to a months-old post that was already addressed, but I felt like adding my two cents anyway (which you can convert to any currency you'd like). Besides, when you factor in all the leap years the Mayans, the Myans, the Myasses, the Means and the Medians ignored, then this post really was made before either of the above.
senor_cardgage

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### Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

http://i.imgur.com/Ygttn.png

So it was accurate within less than a month, approximately 10 months in the future. Impressive!
miniyou

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### Re: 1043: “Ablogalypse”

miniyou wrote:http://i.imgur.com/Ygttn.png

So it was accurate within less than a month, approximately 10 months in the future. Impressive!

it would have been more accurate had "tumblr" not dipped and "blog" not peaked just after "A"

it actually looks like they have been back and forth regularly for a while, when looking at only the last 90 days, and therefore using data for every day instead of just monthly data http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q= ... 3-m&cmpt=q
and using weekly data they actually drew more-or-less level at the beginning of august

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