Wams chaos game day 5

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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby plytho » Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:40 pm UTC

bessie:

bessie wrote:
somitomi wrote:Isn't that a lot of mafia? Assuming none of the teams consists of a single person, that would mean at least half the players are mafia :shock:
Why do you assume that no mafia teams started with one person?
It felt pretty clear to me that somitomi was using a mafia= 2 or more people, indies = 1 person factions interpretation here so I'm confused that bessie didn't see that. She seems to be forcing her own interpretation of somi's statement (somi doesn't think there are 1 person factions) onto what somi was actualy trying to say (3X2 is 6 mafia out of 12 people, that's a lot).

bessie wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
bessie wrote:The underlined implies scum knows they are pushing town.
Why would scum know if Vicarin was town?
Why would Vicarin’s alignment make my push on him suspect?
Fair comment on the underlined statement. However, what I should have written was that scum are more likely to push those who are not on their team than their buddies, given that this game is likely multiball. Presumably, scum knew he wasn't their buddy.
Your push led to a mislynch. Anything that leads to a mislynch is suspect in my books. Yes, you could be mistaken town, but causing a mislynch increases the chances you are scum.
Town can push pretty hard too, when they feel confident that they have caught scum (or so I've been told :P ).
If Vicarin was a mislynch it is not a given. I know that you feel that something in your role points to Vicarin being town, but you can’t prove it at this time, so as far as I know Vicarin was scum.

bessie wrote:
plytho wrote:Sabrar, like BoomFrog/ConMan and bessie are the one’s for whom Vicarins flip would have been very useful in determining their alignment. If Vicarin was town one of them could have janitored him to protect themselves. On the other hand, Vicarin’s scumbuddy could have janitored him to make Sabroomssie look suspicious or at least prevent them from getting mad town cred.
Are you not following my prodding of jimbob along similar lines? If we are in multiball, scum can legitimately scumhunt.
These points seem overly defensive to me. It reads like "You can't prove I voted for a townie, and even if you could it wouldn't matter because anyone could do that." The "Why would Vicarin's alignment make my push suspect?" question is particularly odd because it sounds like bessie is advocating against wagon analysis. Bessie, we know that the simple fact that someone voted for a townie doesn't necessarily make them scum. In fact any successful wagon will contain townies in most cases. That doesn't mean we shouldn't find anyone on that wagon suspicious. Even in multiball where, yes, scum can legitimately scumhunt, we can still be suspicious of the people lynching a townie.

Here's what's most suspicious about your response: I was saying Vicarin's flip could have helped determine your alignment. I wasn't saying it would make you look guilty, yet you respond defensively. Are you saying a Vicarin scum flip would not inform us about your alignment in any way? What do you know that we don't?

ConMan: conveniently between bessie and jimbob so I'm taking another look. I'm not sure I believe the randomness aspect of his claim. A couple of things seem deliberate (BoomMan being safe, both wagons redirected at me, the fact that three people are safe and three are double targeted) On the other hand, keeping all this quiet is a huge boon for scum so I'd be surprised if scum shared these results.

Jimbob: Jimbob seems to be basing a lot on his pm-based town read of Vicarin. Interesting how he changes from a wild guess here
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Wild guess is that Vicarin is likely dead permanently, whereas mpolo might come back.
to role-pm based info here
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:]My role PM also implies that Vicarin is more likely permanently dead. It's not guaranteed though.


Other than that his claims seem to be pretty consistent. I like his reads list. Jimbob is clearly paying attention. I like how he points out some stuff that others missed/forgot about (mpolo claiming his flip wouldn't reveal stuff, moody implying being scum). I have a town lean on jimbob. This kind of implies town!Vicarin which reinforces suspicion on bessie, ConMan.

Madge: Hmm, I thought madge had taken into account her possible hidden role but this bit isn't that, it's Madge saying she's not lying:
Madge wrote:No, I won't be participating in speculation about what my role *really* is, because my only answer will be "yes, I am really vanilla town". I'm sure everyone will discuss amongst themselves because I wouldn't believe me, but I don't have the time or inclination to go into a debate about this, and I definitely don't have the ability to convince anyone that I'm really truly vanilla town, unless we have a rolecop who can investigate me and prove it once and for all, and then do you really want to prove the vanilla town person?
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby plytho » Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:42 pm UTC

I'll condense my chaotic thoughts into a list and a vote later tonight.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby moody7277 » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:33 pm UTC

Oh look, Madge has decided to OMGUS vote me. At this point considering that heury is hors d'mod, she looks like my best vote for the day

Vote: Madge

plytho wrote:Huh, I don't think so. I completely forgot about this by the time I made my second reads list. @moody: care to comment?


I figured that everyone had baked in that if I were full town I would have called BS on BoomFrog's "what if there were no town" statement.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby plytho » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:35 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:
plytho wrote:Huh, I don't think so. I completely forgot about this by the time I made my second reads list. @moody: care to comment?
I figured that everyone had baked in that if I were full town I would have called BS on BoomFrog's "what if there were no town" statement.
Uh, are you saying you're not full town?
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:37 pm UTC

I'm eager to hear this as well.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby plytho » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:46 pm UTC

Here's my list:

town
plytho
jimbobmacdoodle
somitomi
Sabrar
bessie
Madge
moody7277 [edit: moody dropped two spots as he seems to be confirming he's not town]
ConMan
scum

heuristically_alone: modkill looking likely here

I had real trouble ordering this list, especially the scum side so I looked at a couple more things and noticed these:

More on Madge: this quote (from here is somewhat contradictory to her vanilla claim:
Madge wrote: (i assume everyone has a CHAOTIC power)
Madge's enthousiasm at the start of the game also seems quite at odds with a dissapointing vanilla role.

More on ConMan: I was wondering about the ordering of ConMan's list and noticed that the input (old target) was apparently the same as the player order from the OP with one exception: mpolo, who is 11 on the player list is in between 4 and 6 on the redirection list. I think this might mean ConMan manipulated the list for his benefit (eg: Originally mpolo redirected to him?) and may have messed with the new targets as well.

1. heuristically_alone
2. Sabrar
3. moody7277
4. Madge
5. Vicarin
6. plytho
7. BoomFrog
8. jimbobmacdoodle
9. bessie
10. somitomi
11. mpolo
12. Mark_Cangila

(1) heuristically_alone, (2) Sabrar --> moody
(3) moody --> Madge
(4) Madge, (11) mpolo --> Plytho
(6) Plytho --> mpolo
(7) BoomFrog / ConMan --> Mark_Cangila
(8) jimbobmacdoodle, (9) Bessie --> Sabrar
(10) somitomi --> jimbobmacdoodle
(12) Mark_Cangila --> Bessie
nobody --> heuristically_alone, BoomFrog / ConMan, somitomi
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby moody7277 » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:48 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
moody7277 wrote:
plytho wrote:Huh, I don't think so. I completely forgot about this by the time I made my second reads list. @moody: care to comment?
I figured that everyone had baked in that if I were full town I would have called BS on BoomFrog's "what if there were no town" statement.
Uh, are you saying you're not full town?


town-adjacent, with no kill
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby plytho » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:49 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:town-adjacent, with no kill

You are familiar with the town wincon right?
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby moody7277 » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:57 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
moody7277 wrote:town-adjacent, with no kill

You are familiar with the town wincon right?


Look, if you think I'm a bigger threat than actual murderous scum, then feel free to waste a lynch. I'm scumhunting right along with you (well, perhaps not you in particular, but whatever).
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:57 pm UTC

plytho wrote:You are familiar with the town wincon right?
BTW this was my issue with heury's content from before as well, he was indie-hunting which due to the above should be completely different from town's pov as compared to regular setups.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:58 pm UTC

@moody: it's not a waste. Town simply cannot win while you are alive. The only question is when to lynch you.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby Madge » Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:20 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Oh look, Madge has decided to OMGUS vote me.


Nope, I'm voting you because I'd figured out that you're not town. I didn't even realise you were voting for me. My other scum pick is Sabrar, do you want to vote him off together?

Vote: Sabrar

plytho wrote:More on Madge: this quote (from here is somewhat contradictory to her vanilla claim:
Madge wrote: (i assume everyone has a CHAOTIC power)
Madge's enthousiasm at the start of the game also seems quite at odds with a dissapointing vanilla role.


I'm vanilla town.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:36 pm UTC

Well, that was unexpected. I'm willing to give moody a pass for now, as I feel like there are several other better scum choices, as opposed to a (supposedly) pro-town indie, but as others have pointed out, he will have to go at some point (and yes, I know that if moody turns up scum, this is going to look REALLY bad). Of course, he might be scum, and if anybody has a vig, he's probably as good a target as any.

I like plytho's content today - he's picked out quite a few different small things that I've missed.

I'm not entirely convinced by ConMan's targeting list, but I'm still thinking about it.
plytho wrote:More on ConMan: I was wondering about the ordering of ConMan's list and noticed that the input (old target) was apparently the same as the player order from the OP with one exception: mpolo, who is 11 on the player list is in between 4 and 6 on the redirection list. I think this might mean ConMan manipulated the list for his benefit (eg: Originally mpolo redirected to him?) and may have messed with the new targets as well.
This is certainly a plausible point. Alternatively, it's possible that somebody else used a regular redirect and this somehow messed things up? Is there any link between the players who were redirected from and where they were redirected to?
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:39 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:If I had to vote now it would be for ConMan but I don't want to vote with Madge.
@Madge: please move your vote. Also can you at least try to point out which of somitomi's posts gave you that vibe?
Is there a particular reason for not wanting to vote with Madge?
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:43 pm UTC

At that point Madge was still joke-voting. I don't want a joke-vote to decide the lynch.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby somitomi » Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:50 pm UTC

Madge wrote:My feelings are getting a bit hurt, but okay!

Sorry, Madge. Please don't take it personally, we like you regardless of how you play.
❖❖❖
I like ConMan laying his cards on the table, I think it might help to clear up things although noone came forward with a night result. Still, as plytho said, the NK targets make more sense this way.
❖❖❖
plytho wrote:Hmm, yes chances of a ConMan NK increase without the redirect. But the (potential) loss to town is reduced information-wise. It also doesn't entirely rely on ConMan being town as the same logic holds for scum!ConMan. There's also something to be said for random redirection of the two kills increasing the odds of hitting scum instead of town. There's some math to be done here that I'm not going to be able to do, but I guess you could calculate probabilities based on expected number of scum. If we're going for random redirection we should randomize whether or not to do it.

Hmmm. The benefit of the redirection is that scum can't be sure who they'll hit, so they might hit other scum (perhaps even themselves). It might serve as a safety net after a PR claim (giving us one or two more results), although that feels a bit remote due to the limited number of uses. The disadvantage is that PRs can't be sure who they'll target either and they'd have to wait for ConMan to share this info (which scum!ConMan might use to mislead them). There's also the possibility of ConMan's death plytho mentioned above. I'm not good with probabilities either and the weight of the disadvantages depends on ConMan's alignment.
❖❖❖
Madge wrote:Dead Player Walking: Heury

Townish: Jimbob, plytho, bessie, somitomi, conman

Scum: moody, Sabrar

So, do you think most of the scum is already dead or did we start with much less scum than we all think we did?
—◯-◯

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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:42 pm UTC

Just catching up on a few things from the past 24 hours or so that I haven't responded to.
Madge wrote:My feelings are getting a bit hurt, but okay!
It's not personal Madge! And I feel bad that you may not get to enjoy the craziness if you get lynched. Maybe, if wam declares you permanently dead, you could pretend that you might get resurrected still and play in the Gojoe thread?
Madge wrote:I think these guys are probably either all town or all scum but don't ask me which because I don't know, I don't even know why I think this, vibe of the thing, etc: {Boomfrog/Conman, Bessie, Sabrar}, but I think I'll be able to work things out better as I get more claims, something about Conman's claim at the beginning of the day is giving me this vibe.
Just to clarify, if there are multiple scum teams, do you think all three of these would be on the same scum team, if they are scum?
Madge wrote:actually, yeah - is anyone else VT?
Most probably already realise this hopefully, but nobody should answer this question. It just gives scum a list of people not to kill.

bessie wrote:jimbobmacdoodle
jimbob is town reading Vicarin and mpolo based on information in his own role pm. Ok. But it feels to me like one of his continued reasons for scum reading me is: bessie is scum that was deliberately pushing a townie mislynch. I’m suspicious that you’re building a case on me based on the “fact” that I should know that Vicarin is town. And jimbob, if your scum read on me is so largely based on my push of Vicarin, why do you not find plytho suspicious? This was the vote when I signed off late Sunday night. (also note that I made it clear, in advance, that I very likely wouldn’t be around the last 12ish hours of D1.)
bessie, town!you obviously didn't know that Vicarin was town, that's not my point. As others have pointed out, this effectively is a kind of wagon analysis, but one that only really I can do. Why does plytho's vote on mpolo matter at the time you signed off? Did I misunderstand your comment here? On the Mark comments, those didn't really form a part of my read, but you are making a fair point. I didn't really read the context around his statement.
bessie wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I also reject bessie's claim (and others?) that mpolo wasn't trying to help/was active lurking for most of D1.
Nice how you managed to get in another dig at me in your moody read. Here’s the post where I accused mpolo of active lurking (page 6).
bessie wrote:
mpolo wrote:Reading with a phone and mobile internet, whole being driven very rapidly, so this is brief. Sorry about how much I went into the overly depressed mode. However, when the pressure is this hard on D1, and I have no hope of getting anything except what is in thread, it is pretty clear that I am going to be misslynched sooner or later.
Jeez mpolo, I understand about the real life issue, and appreciate that you’re trying to keep up on your phone, but you’re not a newbie, there were times you have served as mentor to newbie me. I don’t need to tell you that the most important thing a townie can do when facing pressure and the potential lynch is to continue to push and prod and flush out scum, and even if you’re lynched you’ll leave behind information that may lead us to scum. I find this quite odd from you.
When I posted that, mpolo had made 6 posts. From you own analysis, his content didn’t improve a lot until post #8, which was after my reads list (page 7), and mpolo’s analysis in post #10 was after I signed off on D1.
Now you're misrepresenting/misinterpreting. That comment was completely unrelated to my moody read. Although I didn't post a detailed analysis, I skimmed both Mark's and mpolo's posts to brush up on D1 a bit (I didn't go into depth on Vicarin's, due to time, unfortunately). So, effectively, that comment was part of my mpolo "read". Also, I wasn't referring to your D1 content with this. And now that I look, I think I might have mixed you and plytho up from the D2 conversation about whether mpolo had little content (specifically these two posts). Sorry bessie. I'm moving you a bit further up the list, and plytho a bit further down the list because of this.

@plytho - why did you say that mpolo didn't have any reads? Yes, early on that was the case, but later in the weekend, he gave some.
Sabrar wrote:Only somitomi voted no however with some bad logic. The lynch is town's biggest weapon, more town-controlled deaths are always good (see Stellaris). I think this a newbie mistake
This is basically what I was going to say about the responses I saw from people.
Sabrar wrote:Other comments: I said here that I was finally able to break the jimbob-code and I'm pretty sure I was right. As some of jimbob's content causes me concern I'm pretty sure he's Town and no this is not a joke.
So, you believe I'm town, so that means I'm scum right? :lol:

I don't have a strong opinion on whether ConMan should use his redirect or not tonight. However, if he's town, he should not disclose his final decision as to whether to use it or not until D3. If he's scum, they won't listen to us anyway. Random redirection feels like it is unlikely to hurt scum that much though, since as long as they don't redirect onto their own buddy, any kill is reasonable, and it throws confusion into the town result mix. But if ConMan survives, (and we trust him, which is a bit of a stretch currently), the confusion goes away, so it's not all bad.

plytho wrote:Jimbob: Jimbob seems to be basing a lot on his pm-based town read of Vicarin. Interesting how he changes from a wild guess here
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Wild guess is that Vicarin is likely dead permanently, whereas mpolo might come back.
to role-pm based info here
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:My role PM also implies that Vicarin is more likely permanently dead. It's not guaranteed though.
Fair comment. By "wild guess", I was mostly referring to the mpolo-side of things, and therefore why the two flips were different.

Updated ordered list:
Town
somitomi
Sabrar
plytho
bessie
ConMan
Madge
Scum

Other
moody (maybe scum, but feels more likely indie - I think he would have found a way to brush off his earlier comment otherwise, rather than just outright claiming non-town)
heuristically_alone (modkill fodder, sadly)

I'm running out of townies... Only people I'm confident about are somitomi and Sabrar. I'm happy with lynching Madge. I could be persuaded to lynch ConMan or mpolo, without much effort.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby plytho » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:12 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I could be persuaded to lynch ConMan or mpolo, without much effort.
That's supposed to be moody, right?
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby plytho » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:22 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@plytho - why did you say that mpolo didn't have any reads? Yes, early on that was the case, but later in the weekend, he gave some.
Hmm, you're referring to this post, right? I think I kind of dismissed that as not saying much at the time, seeing it more as a promise for content. You're right that he does post opinions there and I forgot about that.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby plytho » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:39 pm UTC

Vote: ConMan

For now. Need to think about moody.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby plytho » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:40 pm UTC

Less than 24h until deadline, it's time to vote.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:45 pm UTC

I've thought about it and somehow moody's claim simply doesn't make sense coming from scum as he wasn't under great pressure so this wasn't something he was forced to do (like I had to claim Survivor in WoT3).
I'm very curious how a 'town-adjacent' indie is supposed to work though and this is just dodging the question.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby plytho » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:53 pm UTC

Right, so there's 9 of us now. (1)If we lynch moody, without crossfire/protection we end up with 5 people left tomorrow. Two of whom have a kill. (2) Same goes for any mislynch. Although in that case town is definitely in the minority vs moody and at least two scum (3) If we lynch right (remaining member of mafia C or the remaining buddy of vic or mpolo) there will be 6 people in a much better position for town.

So basically 3 is the best case but going for three risk worst case 2. 1 is less worst case.

Note: I'm assuming town!heury in these scenarios if he's not we're better off, but I'm not counting on it.

Right now I'm going for scenario 3.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Sep 17, 2018 9:57 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I could be persuaded to lynch ConMan or mpolo, without much effort.
That's supposed to be moody, right?
Yes, sorry.
plytho wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@plytho - why did you say that mpolo didn't have any reads? Yes, early on that was the case, but later in the weekend, he gave some.
Hmm, you're referring to this post, right? I think I kind of dismissed that as not saying much at the time, seeing it more as a promise for content. You're right that he does post opinions there and I forgot about that.
Correct.
plytho wrote:Two of whom have a kill.
At LEAST two of whom have a kill. I still think it's plausible that there are three scum teams, and one kill either got blocked, or kills collided.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby Madge » Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:18 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:At that point Madge was still joke-voting. I don't want a joke-vote to decide the lynch.


My vote for moody was not a joke, he was vibing me badly, and I was right, he was non-town. Give me some credit, please!

somitomi wrote:So, do you think most of the scum is already dead or did we start with much less scum than we all think we did?


I wasn't aware that our scum lists had to include n scum candidates, where n is the number of scum players we suspect are in the game? Those are my two scum picks at the moment. If I think of more, I'll add them. Otherwise I'm not adding other people to the list to bulk it out.

I don't think conman should redirect. I think we lose too much potential information (there HAS to be information out there, right?), if he dies. And he will die, eventually, even if it's just an unlucky redirect. But ultimately Conman makes Conman's decisions.

Also, I feel like I FORGOT to MENTION: Sabrar is scummy mcSCUMface. You should ALL be voting for Sabrar with me!
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby Sabrar » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:16 am UTC

Madge wrote:
Sabrar wrote:At that point Madge was still joke-voting. I don't want a joke-vote to decide the lynch.
My vote for moody was not a joke, he was vibing me badly, and I was right, he was non-town. Give me some credit, please!
You were voting for ConMan when I asked you to move your vote and only then did you vote moody. So yes, you were joke-voting.

And I have to ask you: unless this post is full of sarcasm you show no indication there that you find me scummy. In your next post however you suddenly become suspicious of me. What happened?

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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby Madge » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:20 am UTC

Your support of me blinded me to your scumminess, but I've realised what you were doing.

Sorry for not remembering which vote you were referring to. My vote for ConMan wasn't a joke at the time, but I've since changed my mind, I think ConMan's stuff that was pinging me was NAI.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby ConMan » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:49 am UTC

plytho wrote:More on ConMan: I was wondering about the ordering of ConMan's list and noticed that the input (old target) was apparently the same as the player order from the OP with one exception: mpolo, who is 11 on the player list is in between 4 and 6 on the redirection list. I think this might mean ConMan manipulated the list for his benefit (eg: Originally mpolo redirected to him?) and may have messed with the new targets as well.

Nope, that's because I got the list in a slightly different format, then when I re-wrote it into this form I realised I missed mpolo so I stuck him on the end.

I think Sabrar and plytho are both scumhunting fairly well, and they are legitimately calling me out on some things. I am now leaning town for both of them.

I will say that for my own safety I *do* know whether or not I am activating another random redirect tonight, and I will reveal whether I did or not in D3 subject to my availability (see spoiler below). There is, of course, the problem of what happens if I die. Hopefully someone will be able to provide insight somehow, but I'm not sure exactly how with no-one else really giving much info about their abilities.

My scumdar has never been good, but I think at the moment my feelings are:

Town
Plytho
Sabrar
bessie
Madge
somitomi
jimbobmacdoodle
moody
Scum

I'd note that the "scum" end of things is more "I can't tell if you guys are scum or not", and the order is frankly kind of arbitrary all the way down the list. Moody claiming "town-adjacent" is actually a bit of a red flag for me. He obviously knows that him living is potentially in no-one's best interests (bar his own presumably), so claiming to essentially be lynch-bait is weird. All things considered, I actually wouldn't mind getting him out of the picture a little earlier so we don't have to worry about this weird grey-area.

Vote moody

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Spoiler:
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby plytho » Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:00 am UTC

ConMan wrote:Nope, that's because I got the list in a slightly different format, then when I re-wrote it into this form I realised I missed mpolo so I stuck him on the end.
Do you mean you stuck him at 11?
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby bessie » Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:13 am UTC

I will have several important meetings tomorrow morning and will not be able to check the thread, and deadline will probably be before my lunch break (if I even take one). I might be able to check at 7am PDT.

Some quick responses to today’s content.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I've decided to be a bit more explicit about my role PM based alignment knowledge, to avoid any confusion. From my role PM, I know that Vicarin was the same alignment as me.
I find this interesting, as it is definitive, unlike your claim in your first post:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:2) I think mpolo and Vicarin were town, and town's alignment is not revealed on death. I have evidence relating partly to this in my role, that I'd prefer not to reveal at this time.
Why did you not claim this before? I can think of a few roles that your claim would fit (this is not at all a request for you to claim). I'm going to have to think about this. If true, I can see now why (town or scum) you focused so strongly on players that has been in conflict with Vicarin, and that you were possibly upset that your (mason partner/mafia partner/sibling/etc - do not claim, examples are for illustrative purposes only ) died before you even had a chance to play with him.

plytho wrote:
bessie wrote:
somitomi wrote:Isn't that a lot of mafia? Assuming none of the teams consists of a single person, that would mean at least half the players are mafia :shock:
Why do you assume that no mafia teams started with one person?
It felt pretty clear to me that somitomi was using a mafia= 2 or more people, indies = 1 person factions interpretation here so I'm confused that bessie didn't see that. She seems to be forcing her own interpretation of somi's statement (somi doesn't think there are 1 person factions) onto what somi was actualy trying to say (3X2 is 6 mafia out of 12 people, that's a lot).
I don’t understand your point. I asked somitomi whey he wasn’t considering the possibility of single member teams, which was how I originally interpreted his statement. He later explained that he specifically defined team as two or more people, and he was considering single member factions.

plytho wrote: Here's what's most suspicious about your response: I was saying Vicarin's flip could have helped determine your alignment. I wasn't saying it would make you look guilty, yet you respond defensively. Are you saying a Vicarin scum flip would not inform us about your alignment in any way? What do you know that we don't?
I obviously know less than you know. I do not know for certain Vicarin was town. I never said Vicarin’s flip wouldn’t be useful. I’m pointing out that we don’t have it. And I’m trying to remind everyone that we should be considering all possibilities, and then discarding the least likely (big picture -- > small picture). But throughout all of D2 jimbob's point of view is “Vicarin was town and there is no other possibility” but he never explained why (until this page). From jimbob's first post:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm pretty confident Vicarin was town, and as such, bessie's push on him is somewhat suspect.
Why shouldn't I be suspicious of this read, especially as I'm singled out for pushing Vicarin (I wasn't the only one that found him suspicious and I wasn't the one who swung the vote to him).

plytho, did you assume Vicarin was town in this post:
plytho wrote: Two unrevealed flips. Wagon analysis is pretty useless when two of the top three wagons have no flip. We might have lost two scum N1 but I won't be counting on that.
At least we can try to look for Mark's buddy/ies.
Why did you not even consider that we may have lost three scum total? jimbob has since explained his unshakable certainty that Vicarin town. What was yours?

plytho wrote:More on ConMan: I was wondering about the ordering of ConMan's list and noticed that the input (old target) was apparently the same as the player order from the OP with one exception: mpolo, who is 11 on the player list is in between 4 and 6 on the redirection list. I think this might mean ConMan manipulated the list for his benefit (eg: Originally mpolo redirected to him?) and may have messed with the new targets as well.
I agree that ConMan may have manipulated the list, or was able to select some/all of the redirects. Or that his was not the only redirect. I’m still thinking about it. plytho, I messed with your list a bit, to include the player order for the target as well.

(1) heuristically_alone, (2) Sabrar --> (3) moody
(3) moody --> (4) Madge
(4) Madge, (11) mpolo --> (6) Plytho
(6) Plytho --> (11) mpolo
(7) BoomFrog / ConMan --> (12) Mark_Cangila
(8) jimbobmacdoodle, (9) Bessie --> (2) Sabrar
(10) somitomi --> (8) jimbobmacdoodle
(12) Mark_Cangila --> (9) Bessie
nobody --> (1) heuristically_alone, (7) BoomFrog / ConMan, (10) somitomi

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Why does plytho's vote on mpolo matter at the time you signed off? Did I misunderstand your comment here?
Perhaps, so I’ll clarify. plytho’s vote at the time in my link was for not-Vicarin (and just happened to be for mpolo). Why did you find my vote on Vicarin suspicious, when I had been reading Vicarin as scum for most of the day? Why didn’t you find plytho’s last minute vote for Vicarin suspicious, when plytho had been reading Vicarin as town? I think my suspicion of you for this was a valid point.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Now you're misrepresenting/misinterpreting. That comment was completely unrelated to my moody read. Although I didn't post a detailed analysis, I skimmed both Mark's and mpolo's posts to brush up on D1 a bit (I didn't go into depth on Vicarin's, due to time, unfortunately).
Yep, you are correct. It was in what looked like your moody read section to someone that was trying to sort through a lot of content and make a reads list. Your mpolo section did not have its own header. And, hmm, shouldn’t you go through Vicarin’s content a bit more? To you he’s confirmed town, and if we keep not getting flips, perhaps one of the few confirmed town you will have.

Sabrar wrote:I've thought about it and somehow moody's claim simply doesn't make sense coming from scum as he wasn't under great pressure so this wasn't something he was forced to do (like I had to claim Survivor in WoT3).
+1, etc. moody wasn’t going to be lynched, why throw this out when there’s a non-zero chance this claim will swing the lynch his way? Some reasons I can think of are moody is (1) indie and has given up on his win con, (2) indie and this is somehow facilitating his wincon, or (3) mafia protecting a more valuable partner (ConMan or Madge?).

Madge wrote: Also, I feel like I FORGOT to MENTION: Sabrar is scummy mcSCUMface. You should ALL be voting for Sabrar with me!
Why? Do you have a reason, or is it the vibe of the thing?

Ninja'd by looks like 4. Will read but I'm tired so posting what I have.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby plytho » Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:37 am UTC

bessie wrote:I don’t understand your point. I asked somitomi whey he wasn’t considering the possibility of single member teams, which was how I originally interpreted his statement. He later explained that he specifically defined team as two or more people, and he was considering single member factions.
It surprised me you didn't see this right away.
bessie wrote:I never said Vicarin’s flip wouldn’t be useful.
Huh, I thought you did. When you answered this
bessie wrote:
plytho wrote:Sabrar, like BoomFrog/ConMan and bessie are the one’s for whom Vicarins flip would have been very useful in determining their alignment. If Vicarin was town one of them could have janitored him to protect themselves. On the other hand, Vicarin’s scumbuddy could have janitored him to make Sabroomssie look suspicious or at least prevent them from getting mad town cred.
Are you not following my prodding of jimbob along similar lines? If we are in multiball, scum can legitimately scumhunt.


bessie wrote:plytho, did you assume Vicarin was town in this post:
plytho wrote:
Two unrevealed flips. Wagon analysis is pretty useless when two of the top three wagons have no flip. We might have lost two scum N1 but I won't be counting on that.
At least we can try to look for Mark's buddy/ies.
Why did you not even consider that we may have lost three scum total? jimbob has since explained his unshakable certainty that Vicarin town. What was yours?
I did not assume Vicarin was town. I did consider (but didn't acknowledge) the possibility that we'd lost three scum. But that would have been extremely optimistic and not worth strategizing around.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby wam » Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:44 am UTC


Votals
Conman - 2 - Sabrar, plytho
Madge - 2 - Jimbobmacdoodle, moody7277
Moody7277 - 1 - conman
Sabrar - 1 - madge

Not Voting: Hueristically Alone, Moody7277, Plytho, Bessie, Somitomi

5 to hammer

Deadline is Tuesday evening uk time

Huery has not read their prod pm if I don't get a replacement by the end of the day they will be modkilled

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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby bessie » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:09 am UTC

ConMan wrote: Nope, that's because I got the list in a slightly different format, then when I re-wrote it into this form I realised I missed mpolo so I stuck him on the end.
Hmm, not sure what you mean by stuck him on the end because except for mpolo, the left side of your list follows the sign up order. The right side isn’t quite ordered and isn’t quite random, so it looks like there was some deliberate selection (as opposed to "everyone shifts x places on the list"), I just don’t know if it was by you or by the mod.

plytho, I’m too tired think about you any more tonight (it’s after midnight here). I know I didn’t give you a proper reread like I said I would, but I’ll address any open questions D3.

woof
Sabrar
somitomi
jimbobmacdoodle
plytho

ConMan
Madge
moody7277
Grrr

In the doghouse: heuristically_alone

I would like to vote for moody’s possible more-valuable-partner, but I can’t figure out if it’s ConMan or Madge.

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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby plytho » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:19 am UTC

Yeah, pretty sure that was a slip.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby plytho » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:28 am UTC

wam wrote:Not Voting: Hueristically Alone, Moody7277, Plytho, Bessie, Somitomi

I believe moody and I are voting.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby plytho » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:34 am UTC

@somitomi: please vote.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby somitomi » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:41 am UTC

Madge wrote:I wasn't aware that our scum lists had to include n scum candidates, where n is the number of scum players we suspect are in the game? Those are my two scum picks at the moment. If I think of more, I'll add them. Otherwise I'm not adding other people to the list to bulk it out.

Fair enough.
plytho wrote:Yeah, pretty sure that was a slip.

What was?

Vote: Madge
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby plytho » Tue Sep 18, 2018 7:47 am UTC

somitomi wrote:
plytho wrote:Yeah, pretty sure that was a slip.

What was?
Isn't it obvious? It feels pretty obvious to me.
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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby wam » Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:21 am UTC


Votals
Conman - 2 - Sabrar, plytho
Madge - 3 - Jimbobmacdoodle, moody7277, somitomi
Moody7277 - 1 - conman
Sabrar - 1 - madge

Not Voting: Hueristically Alone, Bessie,

5 to hammer

Deadline is Tuesday evening uk time

Huery has not read their prod pm if I don't get a replacement by the end of the day they will be modkilled

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Re: Wams chaos game day 2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:27 am UTC

Madge wrote:Your support of me blinded me to your scumminess, but I've realised what you were doing.
What was he doing?
bessie wrote:Why did you not claim this before?
Simple: I don't want scum figuring out my role just yet. If I'm essentially vanilla or a weak PR, I want scum killing me ahead if town PRs. If I'm super-PR I don't want scum guessing this either, as I don't want to be killed. I'll explain in full if and when I/we full claim.
bessie wrote:Why did you find my vote on Vicarin suspicious, when I had been reading Vicarin as scum for most of the day? Why didn’t you find plytho’s last minute vote for Vicarin suspicious, when plytho had been reading Vicarin as town?
This is simple to explain: until I'd done my reads list, I had only read D1 as it was posted. Your constant argument with Vicarin stuck far more in my memory than plytho's late vote. I do have severe doubts about plytho in the event that Madge flips scum for that vote.
bessie wrote:And, hmm, shouldn’t you go through Vicarin’s content a bit more? To you he’s confirmed town, and if we keep not getting flips, perhaps one of the few confirmed town you will have.
Perhaps, but a) I don't have time, and b) I doubt he has any actual useful information that would make his reads any more informed than my own.
bessie wrote:I would like to vote for moody’s possible more-valuable-partner, but I can’t figure out if it’s ConMan or Madge.
So... you're not going to vote for either of them?
plytho wrote:Yeah, pretty sure that was a slip.
Assuming this is what I think it is, I'm not convinced it's an alignment-indicative slip.
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