Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (N5)

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Sabrar
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:48 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:@Sabrar: you thought 7-2-1-1 was possible in your opening post, but you think multiball (so presumably at least 7-2-2) wouldn't fit in this setup? Is there really that much difference in the balance between those?
Multiball with proper scum faction + cult (7-2-2) is different from a hypothetical cult+sk+indie (7-2-1-1).

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:49 am UTC

Madge wrote:What did I claim that nobody's confirmed?
You claimed that it would be beneficial to us if people would target you.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Madge » Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:28 am UTC

oh that.

FWIW, i no longer think that town will benefit more from targeting me enough to counter act the opportunity cost of not targeting who they would normally have wanted to target instead. that said if you want to target me, feel free, i have no PROBLEM with that, i just no longer think it's a net benefit to town.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby wam » Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:33 am UTC

bessie wrote:
Except for this. I will respond now.
wam wrote:@Bessie not role fishing. Reaction fishing.
Explain how this is scummy.


Didn't say it was. I am trying to work out why your playstyle is different.

On that note this seems more like a scum response to the questions I asked than a town response.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby wam » Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:39 am UTC

I am also highly suspicious of those advocating leaving both cops alive. Whilst I can see the possibility of an insane cop and a sane cop (I have done the same thing as mod) I think it's a lot less likely than a scum false claim.

@boom if you think both are town who are your scum reads.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:46 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Yes, I'm playing against my secondary win because I'd like to have a better chance of actually winning. As people repeatedly said yesterday, it's completely optional.
Then what did you mean “try to go for wam first”?

Never mind, I never believed your secondary win con claim anyway. Reinforced by your non-interest in wam.

Vicarin wrote: Seeing as he's leaning towards going for you today though, I'm pretty ok leaving him as is for now and focus on getting this lynch correct.
Um, wam gets a pass because he’s on your side? :roll:

You are completely uninterested in making any contribution in this game that doesn’t relate directly to trying to ensure my lynch. And I’m very suspicious discouraged dispirited that even though I keep pointing it out, others don’t see your non-town mentality. Or won’t.

I’ve already said I’m not fighing being lynched. Really, I’m ready to go. But I’m going the spend the remainder of my time looking for your partner(s) and so I can take them down with me. So, town!Vicarin, shouldn’t you be looking for my partner(s)? Or at least looking for scum?

BoomFrog, you need to pick a side. The D2 lynch will be me or Vicarin. Oh, and BoomFrog, if Vicarin could be insane, what makes you so sure I’m not naive?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:10 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:What do you think of the insane cop theory?


Why do you think this is more likely than claim/counterclaim from scum/Town?

Why is Vicarin Town?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:14 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:The very next read I want to see is from LaserGuy. He had very pointedly avoided drawing any conclusions.

This was heavy handed. I'm happy for others to continue speculation about each other, but I want LaserGuy to be the next one to give an opinion about the 2 cops issue.


Also, the fact that you posted this and didn't even comment on my analysis makes me think that you aren't even trying to solve this game.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:41 am UTC

@bessie: If you can't work out what "try" means, as in "make an attempt to do so but not necessarily succeed, because of wam not saying anything for half of D1" then I'm not sure there's much point wasting my time answering your questions. Especially since you've tried to get me to break a game rule as well. And keep twisting the words to suit whatever conclusion you want to arrive at, going by a bunch of the other things I've already rebutted and then you've consequently ignored once you've realized you've got no leg to stand on. Go bother someone else.

I think the most important thing to work out before tomorrow that hasn't been discussed much is the claimed roleblock by LaserGuy. Presumably at least one does exist, because a claim out of nowhere of being roleblocked would be incredibly weird otherwise. If we want to have the option of leaving me and bessie alive one more night, then we definitely need to know what damage the roleblocker can do if they're scum. If they're town, then I'm not sure why they targeted LaserGuy after D1, but it may explain how I managed to survive.

Also, Sabrar said he's basically claimed his night result, but I'm not seeing anything resembling that. What in particular did you get?

@LaserGuy: Do you think BoomFrog is just not trying, or that he's a Godfather or something?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:26 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Also, Sabrar said he's basically claimed his night result, but I'm not seeing anything resembling that. What in particular did you get?
You need to learn to read between the lines.

I was Bulletproof.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby wam » Mon Aug 06, 2018 1:13 pm UTC

For.those proposing we let both cops live (Madge, boom huery, I think). Who is your proposed lunch for today then.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 2:28 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Anyway, if Vic is mafia his partner is Sabrar or wam, and I think probably Sabrar.
This also applies to you. You of all people here should know my aversion to bussing.

You're right, I didn't consider this connection seriously enough because I think Vic is town. You two are not partners.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 2:29 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Madge wrote:What did I claim that nobody's confirmed?
You claimed that it would be beneficial to us if people would target you.

I really don't think Madge (or anyone else) should be claiming more unless we are doing a full claim. Why would you possibly be pushing her to reveal more?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 2:36 pm UTC

wam wrote:I am also highly suspicious of those advocating leaving both cops alive. Whilst I can see the possibility of an insane cop and a sane cop (I have done the same thing as mod) I think it's a lot less likely than a scum false claim.

@boom if you think both are town who are your scum reads.
Sabrar for sure. Partner is probably LaserGuy. If Sabrar isn't mafia then Vic or wam (maybe both). For Bessie's sake I'm going to have to do a reread to see if Vic and someone else have a connection.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 2:47 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:The very next read I want to see is from LaserGuy. He had very pointedly avoided drawing any conclusions.

This was heavy handed. I'm happy for others to continue speculation about each other, but I want LaserGuy to be the next one to give an opinion about the 2 cops issue.


Also, the fact that you posted this and didn't even comment on my analysis makes me think that you aren't even trying to solve this game.

Actually, I'm not revealing my thoughts because I'm not concerned about proving my alignment. Unless Bessie is scum I'll be confirmed town once one of the cops die.

But, I should think out loud more so town can help me process. If we are in the two town cop situation, mafia know exactly what is going on and are having trouble faking the right level of confusion. Wam is confused and feels townie (though again wrong). You and Sabrar are happy to solve this by lynching. But if we are in the two town cop land, we lynch one get a town flip then lynch the other. A total disaster. Even if we are in the one town cop scenario, the possibility of the other outcome should be more concerning to you two.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 2:53 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Vicarin wrote:Also, Sabrar said he's basically claimed his night result, but I'm not seeing anything resembling that. What in particular did you get?
You need to learn to read between the lines.

I was Bulletproof.
Who would possibly be so cruel as to NK you again N1? Bessie would never do such a thing after 50+ days of no mafia for you. You should not possibly be considering that she is mafia. Only maybe Vic and LaserGuy would stick to the cold logic of "it's the best in game choice".

However, if you are mafia and your NK was blocked, this is exactly the claim I'd expect.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby heuristically_alone » Mon Aug 06, 2018 2:54 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:It's not as unlikely as you think. Assuming Vic and Bessie both we're assigned white Ajah before alignments. (Seems very likely). Then alignments decided they were both town. How would a mod balance that? Making one secretly insane seems like a reasonable disadvantage to balance the power of two cops.

If Vic or Bessie was scum they would most likely be a rolecop. And this situation could have happened.

That means the fact that they are both claiming cop is not very alignment indicative and we should be deciding based on their merits. Although it's basically garunteed that they are not both scum, so actually their chances of being scum are lower then average. Additionally if they are town their information is extremely valuable.

Therefore we should leave them both alive for now and gather more results, unless you feel one is scummy for non-claim reasons. You love breaking the game by exploiting powers. If you were town you'd be all over proving the cops with powers and deduction instead of lynching one of our most valuable assets.

I'm glad that someone else agrees with me. And I disagree with Bessie's logic that it would make the decision of choosing between Bessie and Vicarin in later game note difficult. Bessie is assuming that if we dont kill one now that mafia will leave both alive, which is contradictory to what she told me before that mafia would kill the real cop. (I can find that post at anyone's request). Anyhow of they are both alive then we likely are getting night results to help further the game.

bessie wrote:Sunfish
bessie
Mark_Cangila
LaserGuy
mpolo

Moonfish
Vicarin
Madge
Sabrar
wam

Jellyfish
BoomFrog
heuristically_alone


Eat my shorts if they aren't town
Boomfrog
Mark

Probably Town
Sabrar
Madge

Lean Town
Mpolo
Vicarin
LaserGuy
Bessie

Scum
Wam

Bessie, the most likely player to be your scum mate is wam. you both seem to be on the same page with the samr agenda even though you put yourselves on different "fish teams". Curently you bith are adamant about killing a claimed cop.

Sabrar wrote:
Vicarin wrote:Also, Sabrar said he's basically claimed his night result, but I'm not seeing anything resembling that. What in particular did you get?
You need to learn to read between the lines.

I was Bulletproof.

It's possible that if Sabrar is scum then night kill was witheld to back this theory. If that wrte true though, I'd expect Sabrar to come across as more boastful of being bulletproof.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:00 pm UTC

Also, I should add, the fact that LaserGuy proposed No Lynch, does indicate non-scumness in the two town cops scenario. Which is why I'm not fully satisfied with my conclusions yet.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:05 pm UTC

@heauy: Wam is pro lynching Bessie first, that doesn't make sense as a scummate.

Also, Sabrar wouldn't withhold to make this claim. More likely the kill was stopped by a roleblock or doctor and he is taking the opportunity to 'confirm' his safeclaim.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:13 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:However, if you are mafia and your NK was blocked, this is exactly the claim I'd expect.
BoomFrog wrote:Also, Sabrar wouldn't withhold to make this claim. More likely the kill was stopped by a roleblock or doctor and he is taking the opportunity to 'confirm' his safeclaim.
You don't get to play the 'kill was blocked otherwise' card without proving yourself. Find the person who blocked me or find the Doctor who didn't protect the claimed Cop and instead protected someone else. Lacking those you have no other choice but to accept my claim (unless you stick to the Sabrar+LaserGuy theory as the only RB was on LaserGuy). Any other action on your part is just mud-slinging.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D1)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:36 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
bessie wrote:Thank you BoomFrog for setting him straight.

lol what?

bessie wrote:What did you think I meant, BoomFrog?

For the record, this exchange D1 is Bessie trying to trip me up by referring to Vic and I having Day Chat. I was sincerely confused but Bessie didn't trust her test. :mrgreen:

Anyway, the point is, Bessie was trying to sincerely find Vic's partner. I know she said as scum she sincerely scum hunts. Maybe I'm underestimating her, but this action feels like it comes from a sincere worry about finding scum.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:38 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:However, if you are mafia and your NK was blocked, this is exactly the claim I'd expect.
BoomFrog wrote:Also, Sabrar wouldn't withhold to make this claim. More likely the kill was stopped by a roleblock or doctor and he is taking the opportunity to 'confirm' his safeclaim.
You don't get to play the 'kill was blocked otherwise' card without proving yourself. Find the person who blocked me or find the Doctor who didn't protect the claimed Cop and instead protected someone else. Lacking those you have no other choice but to accept my claim (unless you stick to the Sabrar+LaserGuy theory as the only RB was on LaserGuy). Any other action on your part is just mud-slinging.

Who would you have Night killed if you were the mafia?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:39 pm UTC

EBWOP: And why?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:46 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Who would you have Night killed if you were the mafia?
Who is/are my partner(s) in this hypothetical scenario? Or do I need to give you dozens of answers accounting for every possibility?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:50 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Who would you have Night killed if you were the mafia?
Who is/are my partner(s) in this hypothetical scenario? Or do I need to give you dozens of answers accounting for every possibility?

For simplicity, let's say LaserGuy.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:57 pm UTC

Simple. I kill Vicarin. My reasoning is that there must be a mechanic in the game to prevent the classic 'Follow the Cop' strategy to be working, so I assume we would have Strongman. If not then we should have roleblock, or a Framer/other mind-warping power. In that case we use that on Vicarin and probably kill you.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby wam » Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:36 pm UTC

That was an interesting bit of data not sure what it means. I am liking booms efforts at digging even if I disagree with his plan.

I disagree with the two town cops as if one is scum leaving both alive is exactly what the teammate(s) should be pushing.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:00 pm UTC

wam wrote:I disagree with the two town cops as if one is scum leaving both alive is exactly what the teammate(s) should be pushing.

That would only fit the data if I or heauy were the teammates. Do you think one of us is?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby wam » Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:01 pm UTC

I am still.suspiocus of huery. And you I can never read. However I haven't been back and looked for specific links.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby dimochka » Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:26 pm UTC

Votals:

bessie - 1 (Vicarin)
Vicarin - 3 (bessie, Mark_Cangila, LaserGuy)

Not Voting: heuristically_alone, Sabrar, BoomFrog, wam, Madge, mpolo

10 alive, 6 to lynch. Deadline will be Wednesday evening this week, and jimbob will update the more specific time based on when he will be around.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:46 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:Deadline will be Wednesday evening next week,
This week, right?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby dimochka » Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:25 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
dimochka wrote:Deadline will be Wednesday evening next week,
This week, right?

Yes, I can't read, sorry. Corrected above.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:44 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Also, I should add, the fact that LaserGuy proposed No Lynch, does indicate non-scumness in the two town cops scenario. Which is why I'm not fully satisfied with my conclusions yet.


Not sure how to parse this exactly, but I didn't propose that because I think that both are cops.

If you're basing your entire game reads on me being scum, you're going to be wrong about everything this game. I guess I should take it as a compliment to my scum play, but I'd really rather have you be useful this game if you're Town.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:29 pm UTC

Deadline will be 7pm UTC on Wednesday
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:46 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Simple. I kill Vicarin. My reasoning is that there must be a mechanic in the game to prevent the classic 'Follow the Cop' strategy to be working, so I assume we would have Strongman. If not then we should have roleblock, or a Framer/other mind-warping power. In that case we use that on Vicarin and probably kill you.

You are making this overly hypothetical on purpose to disentangle it with your reality. We know the cop[s] are macho so scum probably don't have a strongman.

Anyway, we probably have a doc is we have macho cops. And we know the doctor didn't target Vic. And you agree that if scum have a roleblock or other power to deal with a cop they would kill someone else. So this objection is entirely invalid:

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:However, if you are mafia and your NK was blocked, this is exactly the claim I'd expect.
BoomFrog wrote:Also, Sabrar wouldn't withhold to make this claim. More likely the kill was stopped by a roleblock or doctor and he is taking the opportunity to 'confirm' his safeclaim.
You don't get to play the 'kill was blocked otherwise' card without proving yourself. Find the person who blocked me or find the Doctor who didn't protect the claimed Cop and instead protected someone else. Lacking those you have no other choice but to accept my claim (unless you stick to the Sabrar+LaserGuy theory as the only RB was on LaserGuy). Any other action on your part is just mud-slinging.
There's probably a doctor/jailer and they may have prevented the kill. We don't need someone to claim doctor to entertain that possibility. And killer scummate LG was blocked is also possible.

Also, you've ignored the most concerning point. Do you really think Scum!Bessie would have NKed you N1?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:47 pm UTC

Would sanities be revealed on flip after death?
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:54 pm UTC

@Bessie: I lost the quote, but I don't think you are naive because naive+insane cop seems too cruel, and naive as only cop seems too weak. Although, town seems fairly strong with 1-2 cops and watcher and tracker, so maybe I should reconsider. I'm getting overloaded with the possibilities to be honest.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:04 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:We know the cop[s] are macho so scum probably don't have a strongman.
I was walking you through my hypothetical thought-process from start to finish as of my supposed knowledge N1.
BoomFrog wrote:There's probably a doctor/jailer and they may have prevented the kill. We don't need someone to claim doctor to entertain that possibility.
Scum also might have forgotten to submit the NK. Lol, that's not an argument. Why don't you ask the Doctor why he didn't protect the Cop? Afraid that LaserGuy will claim to be Doc and your whole theory falls apart?
BoomFrog wrote:And killer scummate LG was blocked is also possible.
Then why don't you vote LaserGuy? You want to keep alive both Cops, right?
BoomFrog wrote:Do you really think Scum!Bessie would have NKed you N1?
Yes, if she thinks that it is the best course of action if she wants to win. Actual game-win trumps whatever special bond we have because scum!bessie has an obligation to her partner(s) as well.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:38 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Why don't you ask the Doctor why he didn't protect the Cop? Afraid that LaserGuy will claim to be Doc and your whole theory falls apart?

If it looks like you are going to be lynched, and LaserGuy is the doctor then yes he should claim at that time, because the whole thing does fall apart.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

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Sabrar
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:01 pm UTC

@wam: where is the superactive wam I got used to in Secret Santa and Alien Warfare?


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