Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (N5)

For your simulated organized crime needs.

Moderators: jestingrabbit, Moderators General, Prelates

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:29 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:If the rolecop is not Vicarin, then it is very likely Sabrar or Madge since they're the only other people who posted before Vicarin claimed. Probably Sabrar
Please do a detailed vote analysis of me and explain this in particular. I never bus D1 to that extent. Anyone pushing a connection between me and Vicarin is talking out of their ass, to put it mildly.

User avatar
Vicarin
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2008 7:45 am UTC
Location: Sydney, Australia

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:49 am UTC

Sigh.

I thought that bessie would read the flip, see that moody was a weaker version of a tracker, and then realise that I probably had a disadvantage that I didn't claim D1. However, she didn't, just claiming that she was the same as what I had claimed. I found it interesting that she messed up the counterclaim like that, even when I hinted at it, but she's been missing a bunch of stuff, so oh well.

And yeah, bessie totally wasn't going to be be my N1 target, definitely not predictable :roll:

User avatar
mpolo
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:24 pm UTC
Location: Germany

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby mpolo » Sun Aug 05, 2018 11:13 am UTC

LaserGuy's analysis of the bessie/Vicarin situation resonates with me more than the other arguments I've seen brought forth. I really don't like the fact that both have claimed identical flavor, but bessie had set up that claim before Vicarin claimed it, which I think is in bessie's favor. Unless she is scum with a safe-claim that wasn't very safe because it duplicated a town role completely. I need to do some re-reading on the two people in question...
Image <-- Evil experiment

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 05, 2018 3:49 pm UTC

We can probably find the first two scum in one of these pairings: {bessie, LaserGuy} or {Vicarin, BoomFrog}, ties to the rest of the players is murky so they get the ordered list:

Town
Mark_Cangila - liking the claim plus good D1 vibes
heury - had a town read on him ever since the first line of this post and I saw nothing later to change my mind
wam - neutral, bumped up after moody's flip, need more content
Madge - this was a very townie post from Madge but otherwise she seemed to hide behind the SDK-impression D1 a little bit too much. It's also convenient how nobody can confirm her claim.
mpolo - still feels active lurking
Scum

User avatar
mpolo
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:24 pm UTC
Location: Germany

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby mpolo » Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:15 pm UTC

Sorry, today I was forced to solve a problem with the NVIDIA driver on my computer. I wasted an inordinate amount of time trying to get a pre-packaged driver to work. Finally had to install the driver direct from the manufacturer.

I swear I am not trying to be lurky -- but my time is quite limited this summer. Let's see what I can do on a town-to-scum listing:

Town
Mark_Cangila - I concur with BoomFrog that the extra information he gave out, while not in itself helpful, pretty much cements him as town.

People in the middle, vaguely ordered
Sabrar - seems to be working on the game. Some posts have felt off, and he wasn't killed N1, but still a generally townie feeling.
LaserGuy - I liked his argument about bessie-Vicarin, and think that his claim of being roleblocked gives him a slight townie lean
heuristically_alone - generally positive content. No major problems.
wam - due to less posting D1, I have less of a feel for him
BoomFrog - there is a reasonable chance that he is somehow connected with Vicarin if scum. However, I don't have any specific beefs with his posts
Madge - always feels scummy, but I don't have anything specific

Scummy
Vicarin

Bessie is being supported by LaserGuy. Vicarin was in the scummy part of my reads list yesterday. So, my tendency would be to lynch Vicarin (first if necessary).

Apropos safe claims: it's not 100% certain from my reading of the rules that there was any tampering with the Ajah powers after alignments were passed out. Wasn't there a comment from the mod somewhere that a scummy power was not an indication of scummitude? Which means that we could well have a town rolecop or other such semi-useless role. But that also means that there is absolutely no need for safe claims.

I think that this makes bessie's position much stronger than Vicarin's. Maybe somebody could check and make sure this isn't something I've totally invented in my head, but it's sticking there in my memory like a real memory.
Image <-- Evil experiment

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:24 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:Sabrar - seems to be working on the game. Some posts have felt off, and he wasn't killed N1, but still a generally townie feeling.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

User avatar
BoomFrog
Posts: 1069
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:59 am UTC
Location: Seattle

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:29 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:Sigh.

I thought that bessie would read the flip, see that moody was a weaker version of a tracker, and then realise that I probably had a disadvantage that I didn't claim D1. However, she didn't, just claiming that she was the same as what I had claimed. I found it interesting that she messed up the counterclaim like that, even when I hinted at it, but she's been missing a bunch of stuff, so oh well.

And yeah, bessie totally wasn't going to be be my N1 target, definitely not predictable :roll:

Why did you not respond to this. It was directed at the perfect prideful logician. That's you, is it not?
BoomFrog wrote:It was a test. For both of us it seems. Take a deep breath and consider all the possibilities oh perfect prideful logician.


Can you see a way that both of you are town? That no one is a liar? Does it not fit every event so far?
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

User avatar
BoomFrog
Posts: 1069
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:59 am UTC
Location: Seattle

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:33 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:Apropos safe claims: it's not 100% certain from my reading of the rules that there was any tampering with the Ajah powers after alignments were passed out. Wasn't there a comment from the mod somewhere that a scummy power was not an indication of scummitude? Which means that we could well have a town rolecop or other such semi-useless role. But that also means that there is absolutely no need for safe claims.

I think that this makes bessie's position much stronger than Vicarin's. Maybe somebody could check and make sure this isn't something I've totally invented in my head, but it's sticking there in my memory like a real memory.

These are the only relevant official mod info that I could find about setup:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Image[/center]Setup & General rules:
[spoiler][list][*]Bastardry: May include alignment or win-condition changing roles. Some hidden mechanics may be present. The mod will speak no word that is not true. What conclusions you draw from that is up to you. Unlike Aes Sedai, the mod will not deliberately try to mislead you though!
[*]No role is guaranteed to be sane.
[*]Players were assigned their Ajahs before alignments were determined.
[*]Most, but not necessarily all, abilities are based on the chosen Ajah.
[*]Some players may not be Aes Sedai.

It seems to me that Ajah were assigned then alignments randomly assigned, then alignment and Ajah relevant powers were created to make a balanced setup. Nothing says actual powers were determined at all before alignments.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

User avatar
bessie
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:27 am UTC
Location: California

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:46 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:It was a test. For both of us it seems. Take a deep breath and consider all the possibilities oh perfect prideful logician.
I am trying, O Wise Old Dog, but you must allow that I am but the student, and I am have the limitations of a mere puppy mind. Does it make sense that MafiaRedirector!Madge would solicit a cop in this post, before there was a cop claim? For she had no way of knowing that there would indeed be a claim, and therefore she could not be certain of selecting the correct target for her redirect.

Vicarin wrote:BoomFrog has only 1 post today (which he's given a reason for), really need more out of him. Interesting that he didn't comment on me not following his order at the end of D1.
BoomFrog wrote:So? Why didn't you follow my orders? You would have been a confirmed town cop.
Vicarin wrote:Already explained this. At the start of the night, I thought Madge was quite likely scum, and so was lying about her ability (her being a godfather would make that claim sensible, for example, let alone a scum absorber or similar). Thus, I decided to check someone who I was strongly reading as scum. Not going to just blindly follow your orders even if I think you're probably town.
Why did you ask BoomFrog to comment on this if you were only going to use it to get your excuse out there again and point out that you already explained it?

Sabrar wrote:Please do a detailed vote analysis of me and explain this in particular. I never bus D1 to that extent. Anyone pushing a connection between me and Vicarin is talking out of their ass, to put it mildly.
So where’s your vote analysis?
Sabrar wrote: Vote-analysis only helps if we have a confirmed scum amongst the mix as I'm sure you're aware.



And while we’re on the topic of missteps...
Sabrar wrote:We can probably find the first two scum in one of these pairings: {bessie, LaserGuy} or {Vicarin, BoomFrog}, ties to the rest of the players is murky so they get the ordered list:
Your logic is a bit... illogical. I copped BoomFrog. If I am scum, my word can’t be trusted, so BoomFrog could be town or scum. If I am town, Vicarin is scum, and BoomFrog is town.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:58 pm UTC

bessie wrote:So where’s your vote analysis?
Sabrar wrote: Vote-analysis only helps if we have a confirmed scum amongst the mix as I'm sure you're aware.
You don't seem to understand... Again... LaserGuy is convinced that Vicarin is scum so he could and should do the analysis. However from my pov there is no such guarantee so it could be a waste of time.

bessie wrote:And while we’re on the topic of missteps...
Sabrar wrote:We can probably find the first two scum in one of these pairings: {bessie, LaserGuy} or {Vicarin, BoomFrog}, ties to the rest of the players is murky so they get the ordered list:
Your logic is a bit... illogical. I copped BoomFrog. If I am scum, my word can’t be trusted, so BoomFrog could be town or scum. If I am town, Vicarin is scum, and BoomFrog is town.
This is from the bessie who always includes GF in her setup-analysis but doesn't even think of the possibility here...

User avatar
wam
Posts: 201
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:08 am UTC
Location: South England

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby wam » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:13 pm UTC

Sorry everybody busy weekend. Few things have stood out.

1) laser how do you know were at evens?

2) Bessie why are you fishing so hard.

3) Mark is very probably town.

4) with Vic and Bessie I'm split pretty evenly on which one to lynch first but gut is saying Bessie. However given my reads recently I'm not really trusting that.
Come join us playing mafia signup here

User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 4552
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:33 pm UTC

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:24 pm UTC

wam wrote:Sorry everybody busy weekend. Few things have stood out.

1) laser how do you know were at evens?


I can count? We started at 11 players and lost one.

User avatar
bessie
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:27 am UTC
Location: California

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:29 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:You don't seem to understand... Again... LaserGuy is convinced that Vicarin is scum so he could and should do the analysis. However from my pov there is no such guarantee so it could be a waste of time.
Hmm, I’m having a problem understanding this...just a moment...
Google BS Translate wrote:I don’t want to commit.


wam wrote:2) Bessie why are you fishing so hard.
Explain. Who and where am I fishing (except from Vicarin)? You point to where I have asked anyone for role or night result information. I think you will find the opposite is true.

User avatar
wam
Posts: 201
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:08 am UTC
Location: South England

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby wam » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:44 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
wam wrote:Sorry everybody busy weekend. Few things have stood out.

1) laser how do you know were at evens?


I can count? We started at 11 players and lost one.


Surely nl only works if scum are even too?
Come join us playing mafia signup here

User avatar
wam
Posts: 201
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:08 am UTC
Location: South England

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby wam » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:44 pm UTC

@Bessie not role fishing. Reaction fishing.
Come join us playing mafia signup here

User avatar
LaserGuy
Posts: 4552
Joined: Thu Jan 15, 2009 5:33 pm UTC

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:55 pm UTC

wam wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:
wam wrote:Sorry everybody busy weekend. Few things have stood out.

1) laser how do you know were at evens?


I can count? We started at 11 players and lost one.


Surely nl only works if scum are even too?


Nope, doesn't matter. If we're 7-3, then one mislynch puts us at 5-3 MYLO, which means we can safely NL. If we're at 8-2, we can mislynch twice to 4-2, then we're at MYLO again.

User avatar
wam
Posts: 201
Joined: Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:08 am UTC
Location: South England

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby wam » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:57 pm UTC

Yep your right no idea where my maths went wrong...
Come join us playing mafia signup here

User avatar
BoomFrog
Posts: 1069
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:59 am UTC
Location: Seattle

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:05 pm UTC

@Bessie, I can see you are trying, I shall not torment you anymore. All will be revealed soon.

@Sabrar: if you were going to soley decide what you decide now?
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:07 pm UTC

I'd be voting bessie.

User avatar
BoomFrog
Posts: 1069
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:59 am UTC
Location: Seattle

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:09 pm UTC

Why are you not considering that Vicarin is an insane cop, Bessie is sane, and they are both just butting heads as they would no matter alignments?
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:21 pm UTC

Occam's razor, seems too unlikely. Plus bessie's making uncharacteristic mistakes. Plus if you're all town then I have too few candidates for scum.

User avatar
BoomFrog
Posts: 1069
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:59 am UTC
Location: Seattle

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:27 pm UTC

It's not as unlikely as you think. Assuming Vic and Bessie both we're assigned white Ajah before alignments. (Seems very likely). Then alignments decided they were both town. How would a mod balance that? Making one secretly insane seems like a reasonable disadvantage to balance the power of two cops.

If Vic or Bessie was scum they would most likely be a rolecop. And this situation could have happened.

That means the fact that they are both claiming cop is not very alignment indicative and we should be deciding based on their merits. Although it's basically garunteed that they are not both scum, so actually their chances of being scum are lower then average. Additionally if they are town their information is extremely valuable.

Therefore we should leave them both alive for now and gather more results, unless you feel one is scummy for non-claim reasons. You love breaking the game by exploiting powers. If you were town you'd be all over proving the cops with powers and deduction instead of lynching one of our most valuable assets.

How unfortunate for us all that Sabrar is scum.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:38 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Although it's basically garunteed that they are not both scum, so actually their chances of being scum are lower then average.
That's not how math works. Trust me on that.
Spoiler:
A statistic professor plans to travel to a conference by plane. When he passes the security check, they discover a bomb in his carry-on-baggage. Of course, he is hauled off immediately for interrogation.
"I don't understand it!" the interrogating officer exclaims. "You're an accomplished professional, a caring family man, a pillar of your parish - and now you want to destroy that all by blowing up an airplane!"
"Sorry", the professor interrupts him. "I had never intended to blow up the plane."
"So, for what reason else did you try to bring a bomb on board?!"
"Let me explain. Statistics shows that the probability of a bomb being on an airplane is 1/1000. That's quite high if you think about it - so high that I wouldn't have any peace of mind on a flight."
"And what does this have to do with you bringing a bomb on board of a plane?"
"You see, since the probability of one bomb being on my plane is 1/1000, the chance that there are two bombs is 1/1000000. If I already bring one, the chance of another bomb being around is actually 1/1000000, and I am much safer..."

User avatar
BoomFrog
Posts: 1069
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:59 am UTC
Location: Seattle

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:47 pm UTC

I, also, am good at math, probability and statistics. I understand your example, but this is a different situation. However, I'm not going into it since that a minor point in the whole of the discussion.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

User avatar
BoomFrog
Posts: 1069
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:59 am UTC
Location: Seattle

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:52 pm UTC

Let me reconsider, you may have misunderstood my reasoning. I think they are obviously not scummates. It's still theoretically possible Vic is Indy and Bessie is mafia. But that is a truly unlikely set of events.

Actually, Vic could be a cult recruit... Not much we can do there. Also, I'm offended at any cult that didn't recruit me first.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:00 pm UTC

I have reason to believe that there is no cult. I've practically claimed my night-result anyway, if you and bessie both really want I can spell it out in the morning.

User avatar
BoomFrog
Posts: 1069
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:59 am UTC
Location: Seattle

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:07 pm UTC

Does your result preclude LaserGuy being cult leader?
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

User avatar
Vicarin
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2008 7:45 am UTC
Location: Sydney, Australia

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Sun Aug 05, 2018 10:53 pm UTC

Are you suggesting that LaserGuy lied about being roleblocked?

User avatar
bessie
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:27 am UTC
Location: California

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 05, 2018 11:25 pm UTC

All right, I’ve been out all day. Is anyone talking about me me me?

BoomFrog wrote: Therefore we should leave them both alive for now and gather more results, unless you feel one is scummy for non-claim reasons.
You should know this is a bad idea. If Vicarin and I are alive than we will need to go through this all again later in the game when we can’t afford a mislynch. In general, I object to townies claiming to avoid the lynch for just this reason. If someone is scummy enough that the only way to get out of the lynch is to claim, they need to do as moody did, and let town focus their efforts elsewhere (see also SDK in Meta Mafia). Even more so in a situation like this, where the counterclaims are cops. If doing what was best for town was Vicarin’s primary concern, he would have copped Madge and got confirmed by town!Madge, or copped Madge and, at the worst, revealed scum!Madge with his death.

BoomFrog, I’m ok with being lynched. My flip should be true, or this game is totally bastard.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Bastardry: May include alignment or win-condition changing roles. Some hidden mechanics may be present. The mod will speak no word that is not true. What conclusions you draw from that is up to you. Unlike Aes Sedai, the mod will not deliberately try to mislead you though!
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:A player's flip will include all information in bold in a player's role PM except for names and numbers of team-mates and any factional abilities that they may have access to.

If I'm lynched today, Vicarin will be lynched tomorrow. But depending on the setup, we may not have another mislynch available. BoomFrog, you need to find Vicarin’s partner today because with my flip you are confirmed town, so a NK candidate (or possible GF so under suspicion tomorrow and you will have resistance). And Vicarin should go silent tomorrow, so it will be harder to draw out connections.


Let see, where are we?

Sunfish
bessie
Mark_Cangila
LaserGuy
mpolo

Moonfish
Vicarin
Madge
Sabrar
wam

Jellyfish
BoomFrog
heuristically_alone


BoomFrog, heury, get out of the spineless pile and choose a side.


I just got home and did a quick read through. I need a while to think about the content on this page (page 12 as I type this up). So I’ll be back in a bit, and will respond to any new content.

Except for this. I will respond now.
wam wrote:@Bessie not role fishing. Reaction fishing.
Explain how this is scummy.

User avatar
BoomFrog
Posts: 1069
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:59 am UTC
Location: Seattle

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:10 am UTC

Well, ignoring claims I think you're both town, and in that scenario we mislynches twice more and we've surely lost twenty dollars and my self respect.

If one cop is scum and we lynch the correct one, The other dies at night. However, if we don't lynch a cop and a cop isn't NKed we get another result which is as good as a bonus lynch. If one cop is NKed we will have an easier time deciding what to do with the other.

Anyway, if Vic is mafia his partner is Sabrar or wam, and I think probably Sabrar.
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

User avatar
BoomFrog
Posts: 1069
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:59 am UTC
Location: Seattle

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:12 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Are you suggesting that LaserGuy lied about being roleblocked?

No, I'm mostly just can't figure out what result Sabrar could have that indicates there isn't a cult. Even if he knows he prevented the NK somehow that doesn't mean we don't have both Mafia and cult.

What do you think of the insane cop theory?
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

User avatar
Vicarin
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2008 7:45 am UTC
Location: Sydney, Australia

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Mon Aug 06, 2018 12:39 am UTC

@BoomFrog, so, assuming that me and bessie both ended up White for whatever reason, you're saying that since we both get assigned town approximately 51% of the time, this should be the appropriate prior we're working with? Hmmmm...

Main issue I have with being insane is that it makes my 2nd wincon stupidly cruel, I mean wow (goddamn random assignments grrrr). Also relies on knowing Jimbob would use this method to balance having two Whites for town, as there are other ways, which reduces the likelihood of the 2 cop scenario.

This plan isn't as completely ridiculous as I initially thought, but I think it depends too much on scum not having something to take advantage of planning this publically. I'd obviously prefer this plan to being lynched first, seeing as I can possibly squeeze in another result then, but seeing how scummy bessie has been, I'd prefer to just lynch her first and force scum to NK me.

User avatar
bessie
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:27 am UTC
Location: California

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Mon Aug 06, 2018 1:15 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Main issue I have with being insane is that it makes my 2nd wincon stupidly cruel, I mean wow (goddamn random assignments grrrr). Also relies on knowing Jimbob would use this method to balance having two Whites for town, as there are other ways, which reduces the likelihood of the 2 cop scenario
Interesting that the insane cop idea never really occurred to you. And now that BoomFrog has brought it up, you still don’t think it is likely, for gameplay reasons.

So town!you has been assuming the entire game that you are a sane cop, and you still believe you are.

Why were you so sure on D1 that you would not be able to fulfill your secondary win condition? You need to determine wam’s alignment to start, but it seems your role is perhaps better matched to your secondary win condition than most other players.

If you are still hoping to achieve your secondary win, why do you have no interest in questioning wam today, and trying to sort him?

Your only mention of wam on D2 is in you reads list.
Vicarin wrote:wam is quiet with 1 post which looks like hedging his bets, I'd like more out of him to get a proper updated read but it doesn't look great. Think he's usually more verbose than this in most games.

Hmmm. If you are still hoping to achieve your claimed primary win condition, why do you have no interest in questioning wam today, and trying to sort him?

User avatar
Vicarin
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2008 7:45 am UTC
Location: Sydney, Australia

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Mon Aug 06, 2018 1:29 am UTC

Ha, I'm sure that saying 'oh yeah, don't worry about how hard my 2nd wincon seems, it's actually not that bad for me' would have been a fantastic idea and not get me NKed or anything. Totally.

I've given up on the 2nd wincon because we've got bigger fish to fry. Unless I was absolutely, definitely sure wam was scum, it's way better for town if I go with my cop result first rather than try to go for wam first.

And I'm still trying to sort him (claimed primary win condition? :roll: Just say town), he's just being rather tight-lipped. Seeing as he's leaning towards going for you today though, I'm pretty ok leaving him as is for now and focus on getting this lynch correct. Can always prod him aggressively tomorrow, or let other people do so if I get NKed.

User avatar
BoomFrog
Posts: 1069
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:59 am UTC
Location: Seattle

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Aug 06, 2018 2:38 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:Can always prod him aggressively tomorrow, or let other people do so if I get NKed.

That doesn't make sense. Didn't you say if wam is non-town and another non-town is lynched first then you lose your secondary win?
"Everything I need to know about parenting I learned from cooking. Don't be afraid to experiment, and eat your mistakes." - Cronos

User avatar
Vicarin
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2008 7:45 am UTC
Location: Sydney, Australia

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Mon Aug 06, 2018 2:56 am UTC

Yes, I'm playing against my secondary win because I'd like to have a better chance of actually winning. As people repeatedly said yesterday, it's completely optional.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:20 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Even if he knows he prevented the NK somehow that doesn't mean we don't have both Mafia and cult.
Game is too small for multiball, unless you're talking about an initially 1-person cult faction which as explained in a previous game is a bad idea.

User avatar
Sabrar
Posts: 41
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:29 pm UTC

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:22 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Anyway, if Vic is mafia his partner is Sabrar or wam, and I think probably Sabrar.
This also applies to you. You of all people here should know my aversion to bussing.

User avatar
Vicarin
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2008 7:45 am UTC
Location: Sydney, Australia

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:35 am UTC

@Sabrar: you thought 7-2-1-1 was possible in your opening post, but you think multiball (so presumably at least 7-2-2) wouldn't fit in this setup? Is there really that much difference in the balance between those?

User avatar
Madge
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 3:45 am UTC
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Madge » Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:47 am UTC

Sabrar wrote: It's also convenient how nobody can confirm her claim.


What did I claim that nobody's confirmed? I have only claimed Vic didn't target me, that I sent a terangreal to vic, and that my secondary win con is basically impossible for me (seriously i've decided i'm going to ignore it)

I am vallicating hardcore between Vic and Bessie. I'm suspicious why scum didn't roleblock town!Vic to stop that result coming through (especially since I was promising town a moon on a string if Vic targeted me [/sarcasm]). But Bessie has been acting odd: then again, this is probably the famed bessie aggression I've never noticed before.

I think if I was going to vote rn, I'd vote for Vic. I think given everything, we should wait another day and get more results. That way if they're sane/insane we get more results, if they're scum/town then we still clean up D3/D4 worst case. We will still need to vote one off to test though because i am not letting a CC'd cop live on suspicion they're insane especially when fake!Vic now knows to fake an insane result

Also, I wanted to update my phone to the next version of Lineage, so I needed to get the newest version of OxygenOS to get the latest drivers, and then the new Lineage got installed and now is just in a constant "loading screen".... and anyway long story short my phone is with Cynical Mafia Boyfriend at home right now and hopefully when I come back from work I'll be able to use it because using my work-provided S4 is depressing (also did I mention I accidentally forgot to backup my storage, instead just backing up my titaniumbackup folder, so that means that when the whole process of fixing my damn phone went tits up and wiped my data partition, ALL MY DATA IS GONE I AM TERRIFIED, hopefully titaniumbackup will have adequately backed up my podcast app because I WILL CRY, and the latest status update IS NOT LOOKING GOOD). Anyway what I'm trying to say is I won't be able to keep up with reading on my phone so that will suck.
I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.


Return to “Mafia”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: BoomFrog and 6 guests