Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (N5)

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Mark_Cangila
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:13 pm UTC

I still think Vicarin is scum. His claim at the end of D1 is suspect, as he was nearing lynch. Mafia also didn't do anything to him, which is very suspect. His claim saying he copped Bessie as scum is also suspect, considering she was the person most suspicious of him. A safe claim would point to the fact that neither could be scum, as they would safe claim, instead of claiming the same things.

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Sabrar
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:46 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Your missteps this game are alarming. It’s like you aren’t even trying to follow my posts.
First you claim that I don't understand your logic and now you complain that I don't follow your logic. Make up your mind.
Now I see what you meant however to me Vicarin's explanation looks much more reasonable than many other 'mistakes' I previously tunnelled people for, that's why I didn't give it much thought D1 and thought based on your other comment that you were referring to his D2 post.

And while we're on the topic of missteps, let me ask you again why you thought that I assumed you would have copped me? And a more important question: why did you not counterclaim Vicarin D1? I know your aversion to claims but if you knew Vicarin was anti-town then you also knew we would need to lynch him at one point. Why not do it D1 and prevent any possibility of a mislynch? Even if you're killed by a Strongman a Watcher could have gotten your killer (or the scum who blocks you in another scenario), making your sacrifice incredible useful to us. That would have been the absolute correct play, not by doing cryptic remarks.
Finally, why didn't you give a woof-grrr list D1?

In other news I think Mark's claim is legit given that there was a huge risk of a potential doctor counterclaiming. So if Vicarin is town then scum either didn't target him (and I can imagine at least 2 scenarios why) or Madge is scum and targeted him with something under the disguise of passing over the terangreal. I can also see the scum!Vicarin scenario but I have serious issues with bessie right now.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby mpolo » Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:59 pm UTC

I am thinking that Vicarin is looking worse than bessie in this exchange. But that's mostly gut feeling. The breadcrumb does help bessie's case some, but there are most likely safe claims (pretty sure they were given in WoT 2).

The fact that both are claiming macho cops is really weird, though, as I would not have expected a safe-claim to mimic a power that is in the game (I realize that someone else said this, but I am stream-of-consciousnessing at the moment.)

LaserGuy claims to have been blocked. This means that he has a power where that makes sense. (Some powers would presumably receive no information that they were blocked.) It could mean that he is the mafia killer, though he probably wouldn't have immediately claimed the RB if that were the case.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:12 pm UTC

I’m back!
Spoiler:
town bessie.jpg
town bessie.jpg (68.34 KiB) Viewed 479 times

Her ears are pierced three times and there's glitter nail polish.
That looks like town to me.

[For everyone that doesn’t get it, it’s a line from The Silence of the Lambs.]

First of all, Mark, please do not claim any more details about your power.

heuristically_alone wrote:Bessie, I'll work on possible scum partners for you. Are you really omgus-ing that fos on me?
Nope, it’s not primarily for that. The primary reason is for trying to throw out there that my scum read of Vicarin is because of his D2 fake cop result on me, and ignoring that he was my primary scum read on D1. You testing the waters in this post, at the end of day when you could be sure that I wouldn’t be around to respond, is secondary.

BoomFrog wrote: It would be absolutely halarious if both of them were town cops.
Pay attention BoomFrog. Oops, I mean, are you testing me, O Master? For surely the Most Wise One knows that this is very unlikely, as Vicarin claimed a non-town result on me. This would imply that one of us is telling the truth, and one of us is lying. Unless Madge is a bus driver or redirector and/or Mark is lying.

BoomFrog wrote:Has JimBob as a mod typically given any kind of safeclaim? Even if he didn't before it's very possible he did now.
kalira and I (mafia team) did not get safe claims in WoT1. In WoT2, the Black Ajah mafia all had a main color, and they were secretly Black, so they could claim their Ajah, and they didn't have separate safe claims. I’m thinking about the safe claim possibility, but I really think it’s more likely he has a role cop type role, perhaps non-targeting because I don’t think he knew the cop was me (I think mafia just got unlucky there).

heuristically_alone wrote:Pretty sure that Jimbob usually gives safe claims, and if that's the case then I think Bessie and Vicarin both would be town.
And why would you think jimbob usually gives safe claims? A quick skim of his two previous games would have shown this isn’t true.

Mark_Cangila wrote:What are safe claims?
Mark, see here for some examples of safe claims. Then please ask if you have any questions on how this works. Re your post here Vicarin and I can’t both be town barring other powers or mod bastardry.

wam wrote: And I have had too much rum for intelligent comment on the rest!
:lol: wam get back here and drunk post! Or are you afraid of scum slipping? :P

Sabrar wrote: And while we're on the topic of missteps, let me ask you again why you thought that I assumed you would have copped me?
Your reaction here pinged me.

Sabrar wrote:And a more important question: why did you not counterclaim Vicarin D1? I know your aversion to claims but if you knew Vicarin was anti-town then you also knew we would need to lynch him at one point. Why not do it D1 and prevent any possibility of a mislynch? Even if you're killed by a Strongman a Watcher could have gotten your killer (or the scum who blocks you in another scenario), making your sacrifice incredible useful to us. That would have been the absolute correct play, not by doing cryptic remarks.
Do not even try to tell me what the only acceptable absolute correct play must be.

1. Vicarin being scum does not preclude moody also being scum. I still suspected moody was mafia.
2. Vicarin’s claim made me think he was more likely indie with a target, which would be me. If moody was mafia, an indie could wait until D2. And if I was his target and he claimed, he could NK me and win, which meh, doesn’t stop town from winning too but its not a got reason for revealing the cop.
3. Wine reason, but look at the time stamps. I’m not a fast thinker, and I got up early but not early enough to absorb and address everything. I needed to leave for work.
4. I didn’t need to be watched. If I was killed (as I fully expected to be anyway), my flip would have been enough to lead to my killer. Compare to this, where I thought ahippo claimed my role, and I was expecting to be lynched.

Sabrar wrote:Finally, why didn't you give a woof-grrr list D1?
bessie’s D1 Woof – Grr list

Interesting, Vicarin also wrongly accused me of not giving a Woof – Grr list. He was also corrected here.

Sabrar wrote:And while we're on the topic of missteps,
...what did you mean by the following quote?
Sabrar wrote: Major townie points for Madge calling her town right off the bat. Unless they are scum-mates it just doesn't make sense. Plus Madge can probably read her better than average (SS 17 again).
Madge called me town before I even posted.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:28 pm UTC

Yeah, no. I saw it but that was in the middle of the day. You normally produce an updated list towards the end of it.

bessie wrote:...what did you mean by the following quote?
Sabrar wrote: Major townie points for Madge calling her town right off the bat. Unless they are scum-mates it just doesn't make sense. Plus Madge can probably read her better than average (SS 17 again).
Madge called me town before I even posted.
I meant exactly what I said. Madge didn't change her read on you even after you posted so the timing doesn't enter into it.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:46 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:...what did you mean by the following quote?
Sabrar wrote: Major townie points for Madge calling her town right off the bat. Unless they are scum-mates it just doesn't make sense. Plus Madge can probably read her better than average (SS 17 again).
Madge called me town before I even posted.
I meant exactly what I said. Madge didn't change her read on you even after you posted so the timing doesn't enter into it.
Wow this is weak.

And....
Madge wrote:Actually, now I think of it, Bessie might not be town after all.


But I'm not sure Madge was serious about any of her D1 "reads" anyway.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:52 pm UTC

bessie wrote:And....
Madge wrote:Actually, now I think of it, Bessie might not be town after all.

And...

You're deliberately ignoring her post right after that in which she retracts the above.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 04, 2018 9:55 pm UTC

And you're deliberately ignoring this:
Sabrar wrote:Major townie points for Madge calling her town right off the bat.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 04, 2018 10:07 pm UTC

Nope. You are fully aware that it is the same situation as was with SDK in Shakespeare III and he was town. Scum has really no cause to make such an entrance (and I feel it is especially true for Madge). But I have already explained this.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 04, 2018 10:23 pm UTC

This isn’t about Madge, it’s about you.

I’m not scum reading Madge for the gambitt. She’s roleplaying SDK in Shakespeare III, and I spotted it in my first post. And this particular item (roleplaying SDK) in itself is NAI.

I was not-quite-suspicious of you for your original mistake. But it was in my mind, and part of the complete picture I am trying to develop. So I poked you. And now I am more suspicious of your explanation.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Sat Aug 04, 2018 11:38 pm UTC

@bessie: I'm not even sure if you're reading anything you quote off me anymore. I'm saying you didn't know about me being macho, so when you said 'I have your role' you claimed incorrectly. My point was that you didn't realise that I had a drawback like moody, and didn't know that you should probably claim one to look legitimate.

And while claiming you've breadcrumbed is funny, it doesn't match with the flavour that's been chosen for this game as to why the protection doesn't work. Nice try though.

@everyone: is there anyone other than Mark or bessie who wants me to explain anything in particular? I feel like I just have to keep rebutting their falsehoods.

I'm interested to note that bessie has apparently missed that roles aren't guaranteed to be sane, when attempting to mention some ways we could both be town (read the rules dammit). Seems like a super hard setup for town if it is though, due to the sheer confusion with cop counterclaims, and bessie's scummy behaviour explains what's going on sooooooo much better.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Madge » Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:01 am UTC

i put bessie in the scum pile and vic in the town pile. bessie has been acting very, very odd IMO.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:03 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:@bessie: I'm not even sure if you're reading anything you quote off me anymore. I'm saying you didn't know about me being macho, so when you said 'I have your role' you claimed incorrectly. My point was that you didn't realise that I had a drawback like moody, and didn't know that you should probably claim one to look legitimate.
Nope. I knew that you were lying, but I was not yet sure just how much information you had.

Vicarin wrote:And while claiming you've breadcrumbed is funny, it doesn't match with the flavour that's been chosen for this game as to why the protection doesn't work. Nice try though.
I don’t breadcrumb (well, very selectively). But I do role play. I was playing my role. I have not read the books.

Vicarin wrote:@everyone: is there anyone other than Mark or bessie who wants me to explain anything in particular? I feel like I just have to keep rebutting their falsehoods.
No, how about you give us some analysis and reads. Everyone, DO NOT let Vicarin sit back and fish, and selectively react to content. Make him be proactive, and question him and make him answer.

I’m going to be hammering on everyone before this day is over (hmmm, maybe not everyone, one person might escape the bessie tunnel). I’m going to be posting and prodding and driving content. I’m going to ask questions, and make it clear where I stand on everyone because this is my last day to play. I am lynched today or I am night killed tonight.

I recommend that even if you all decide I am scum lynch me today, you push for hard reads from Vicarin. Because if I’m lynched he knows he’s dead D3, and he will stop posting. Force him to give solid opinions and reads today.

Vicarin wrote:I'm interested to note that bessie has apparently missed that roles aren't guaranteed to be sane, when attempting to mention some ways we could both be town (read the rules dammit)
I didn’t miss it. With the weak town powers that have so far been claimed/revealed, I believe roles are probably sane. And I have a gut feeling that the setup is not too crazy, see reply to wam in this post.

I am not setting up a way for us both to be town. You are doing that with your comment. Hmmm.



Ninja'd by Madge. Your analysis of my content please, and how it differs from my town games.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:10 am UTC

@bessie: don't worry, you've already set up a way for us both to be town, in your reply to BoomFrog. Yet another mistake. Oops.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Madge » Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:11 am UTC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMuh33BMZYY

[video: a lawyer stumbles over his legal arguments about the Australian constitution, unable to cite direct sections, and instead vaguely says his argument is based on "the vibe" of the thing]
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:14 am UTC

@Vicarin: Other than me and Bessie, who do you find scummy?

@Bessie: Other than Sabrar and Vicarin, who do you find scummy.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:47 am UTC

Goddamn it Madge, haven't you already posted that video on these forums before? :P

@Mark: have you tried doing what I recommended to form some reads of people? If so, what are they?

I'm definitely not liking mpolo's 'oh I think bessie is correct but I'm going to hang back until I see the way the wind's blowing' and his apparent fixation on rather tangential issues seeing as we have a goddamn cop counterclaim. This, combined with his similarly wishy-washy D1, makes him my 3rd most scummy atm.

Madge is contributing a decent amount now that D2 has started, so she's feeling better as long as she keeps it up, the rolespec in addition to what we currently know will probably help clear people.

wam is quiet with 1 post which looks like hedging his bets, I'd like more out of him to get a proper updated read but it doesn't look great. Think he's usually more verbose than this in most games.

LaserGuy outright claimed being roleblocked which is pretty sensible, but it does mean that he's a good possibility for explaining what happened last night. His fast vote and unvote on bessie could be distancing? His content is pretty good right now though, working through how to explain N1. Hmmmm...

BoomFrog has only 1 post today (which he's given a reason for), really need more out of him. Interesting that he didn't comment on me not following his order at the end of D1.

h_a has continued to say completely sensible stuff, continuing on from his good D1 contributions. No issues here, still damn townie.

Now, Sabrar. Wow, this is a HUGE change from D1. His posting rate has gone through the roof, and he's now going hard after bessie, after being relatively reserved. I think I'd be most interested in a town-scum list from him with explanations to try to help figure out what was the catalyst for this amazing change...

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:49 am UTC

Mark, I’ve been posting content and opinions all day. I’ve talked to or talked about almost everyone. Vicarin has offered nothing. Here’s every D2 instance where he’s said someone’s name besides mine (leaving out moody). What is the vibe you get from Vicarin's posts? Is it someone scumhunting, or someone fishing? Note: I amended the places where Vicarin addressed someone specific as “you” with the name.

Spoiler:
Vicarin wrote:I didnt trust Madge enough to target someone saying 'hey, everyone target me please

Vicarin wrote:@LaserGuy: hopefully this does help narrow down the possibilities of what happened. It's looking most likely that either the mafia who went for the kill got roleblocked. Having them go for someone else entirely and then manage to get blocked by a doctor seems possible, but a bit unlikely.

Vicarin wrote:@Madge: I'm not really sure what we'd get out of that plan, who would you want us to target in particular?

Vicarin wrote: You [Mark] know that a watcher watching a cop is pretty common, and would explain why mafia went elsewhere, right? I already said that they can't have made an attempt on me because I'm macho (can't be protected while copping). So I'm not seeing what information your claim added.

Vicarin wrote:If you [Mark] really see no other possibilities, then clearly scum should never kill a cop claim, because they'll just get lynched the next day

Madge gave me the ter'angreal, and you watched me, seeing that. Either scum got roleblocked or they targeted someone else and their target got protected. Not seeing how you're justifying chucking out other scenarios.

Vicarin wrote:@everyone: is there anyone other than Mark or bessie who wants me to explain anything in particular? I feel like I just have to keep rebutting their falsehoods.

Vicarin wrote:@bessie: don't worry, you've already set up a way for us both to be town, in your reply to BoomFrog.


So Vicarin, who’s my partner(s)? Your analysis please.


Madge I totally love you. I'm going to question you though, along with everyone else. Gotta find Vicarin's partner(s). Nothing personal, I know you understand.

So Madge, how about some reads? Or analysis? Or Woof - Grr?

Ninja'd. Will read.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Sun Aug 05, 2018 12:58 am UTC

Well, just from my reads so far, I'd say that Mark and mpolo are your scum buddies. I can't say I put that much stock in partner analysis in general, but you do you.

I find that you seem to be engaging in a lot of pointless busywork in order to make it seem like you're doing something useful without getting anything out of it. Why bother getting a list of quotes like that? Do you seriously think that's useful information?

On that note, how goes your epic quest to show that I'm wrong from D1? :P

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby heuristically_alone » Sun Aug 05, 2018 1:40 am UTC

So no role is gauranteed to be sane. What if we have two cops, one insane and one sane? Anyhow, I think we should let both claimed cops live. They target other players and get us info and eventually the mafia will have to kill the real cop, or we figure out if one is lying based on the info they are giving us.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:33 am UTC

@Vicarin: Could you remind me of the recommendation? I sorta forgot :oops:

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:42 am UTC

Vicarin wrote: I find that you seem to be engaging in a lot of pointless busywork in order to make it seem like you're doing something useful without getting anything out of it. Why bother getting a list of quotes like that? Do you seriously think that's useful information?
Interesting, your need to blanket belittle my contributions. I must have hit home somewhere.

Vicarin wrote:On that note, how goes your epic quest to show that I'm wrong from D1? :P
I will dedicate my precious limited game time on reads, analysis, and scum hunting in the current game. I have not lost sight of what is important.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 05, 2018 2:42 am UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:So no role is gauranteed to be sane. What if we have two cops, one insane and one sane? Anyhow, I think we should let both claimed cops live. They target other players and get us info and eventually the mafia will have to kill the real cop, or we figure out if one is lying based on the info they are giving us.
No heury. Vicarin and I are the D2 lynch and N2 kill / D3 lynch (or whatever it takes to kill us both off). You need to pick one of us. So, who are you going to vote for, and why? And your reads on everyone else too while you’re at it.

heuristically_alone wrote:Bessie, I'll work on possible scum partners for you.
So how’s this coming along?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Aug 05, 2018 3:07 am UTC

I lost internet just before posting. This has been super ninja'd but it's apparently still relevant.

Mark_Cangila wrote:
Vicarin wrote:You know that a watcher watching a cop is pretty common,

Based on this, I'll one more scenario:
4. They got roleblocked. I very much doubt they would totally avoid using any powers on a cop claim.

Because Vicarin had already claimed macho we already knew if he was telling the truth that he wasn't saved by a doctor. So we already know that town!Vicarin wasn't targeted by a kill and he claimed a result so we know he wasn't role blocked. A town doctor don't know his alignment, so the fact that they didn't protect him proves nothing about his alignment.

So your claim didn't really add any info. However, remember when is said sometimes the best thing town can do is make a mistake? Because of your eagerness to resolve this dilemma I can tell with 95% certainty that you are town. :)
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Aug 05, 2018 3:09 am UTC

The very next read I want to see is from LaserGuy. He had very pointedly avoided drawing any conclusions.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Aug 05, 2018 3:12 am UTC

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: It would be absolutely halarious if both of them were town cops.
Pay attention BoomFrog. Oops, I mean, are you testing me, O Master? For surely the Most Wise One knows that this is very unlikely, as Vicarin claimed a non-town result on me. This would imply that one of us is telling the truth, and one of us is lying. Unless Madge is a bus driver or redirector and/or Mark is lying.
It was a test. For both of us it seems. Take a deep breath and consider all the possibilities oh perfect prideful logician.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Aug 05, 2018 3:13 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:BoomFrog has only 1 post today (which he's given a reason for), really need more out of him. Interesting that he didn't comment on me not following his order at the end of D1.

So? Why didn't you follow my orders? You would have been a confirmed town cop.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 05, 2018 3:43 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:I think I'd be most interested in a town-scum list from him with explanations to try to help figure out what was the catalyst for this amazing change...
I've been debating with myself all day whether or not to claim this and I'm still not convinced it's in our best interest.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:30 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:So? Why didn't you follow my orders? You would have been a confirmed town cop.


Already explained this. At the start of the night, I thought Madge was quite likely scum, and so was lying about her ability (her being a godfather would make that claim sensible, for example, let alone a scum absorber or similar). Thus, I decided to check someone who I was strongly reading as scum. Not going to just blindly follow your orders even if I think you're probably town.

@Sabrar: you can still give an ordered list though, right?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D1)

Postby Vicarin » Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:37 am UTC

@Mark: well, you can look back through the thread yourself, but here it is.

Vicarin wrote:Also, if you believe you're terrible at scum hunting, then you're not going to get better at it just by going along with what everyone else is saying, you get better by practicing and reading over what people have said. Reading over past games can help too seeing as you can test how good your reads are in that case.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:39 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:The very next read I want to see is from LaserGuy. He had very pointedly avoided drawing any conclusions.

This was heavy handed. I'm happy for others to continue speculation about each other, but I want LaserGuy to be the next one to give an opinion about the 2 cops issue.
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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:28 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:The very next read I want to see is from LaserGuy. He had very pointedly avoided drawing any conclusions.


When a man points a finger at someone else, he should remember that four of his fingers are pointing at himself.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D1)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:33 am UTC

Vicarin wrote:I'm Berana Shemon, Aes Sedai of the White Ajah. I can use my logical abilities to determine whether the people around me are town or non-town, one person each night. I've already explained my second wincon, it's because I'm prideful and want to be right about my early choices.


@Vic, just to confirm, you are claiming a result of "non-Town"?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:53 am UTC

Yes, when I targeted bessie, the result that I got was non-Town. Why?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Aug 05, 2018 6:57 am UTC

I was curious if your result was flavored or not.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:04 am UTC

I've got some flavour text that goes along with it, but it's not part of the actual result.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:06 am UTC

Can you paraphrase the flavor text?

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby Vicarin » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:11 am UTC

Very broadly, I spent some time thinking over everything, trying to apply reasoning, and then a result comes to me in a flash of insight.

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:55 am UTC

Okay, let's see here.

If Vic is scum, bessie was rolecopped last night. Vic probably would not have attempted this gambit unless he felt reasonably certain that bessie had a result on him, which means he probably knew that she was the cop at the start of D2. Moreover, this is the only way I can see scum!Vic claiming macho. If the rolecop is not Vicarin, then it is very likely Sabrar or Madge since they're the only other people who posted before Vicarin claimed. Probably Sabrar since Madge's play at the start of the day does not really fit with scum!Vic.

It's not clear to me why scum would be interested in keeping Town!Vic both alive and able to get a result here. This is really the sticking point for me. The night play makes much more sense to me coming from scum!Vic.

Vicarin wrote:I find it interesting that bessie managed to slip up there with her counterclaim, seeing as she said her role was what I gave, despite me not sharing the entirety of my role D1. I said I was prideful for my secondary wincon, but it's actually reflected in the disadvantage that I have, where I'm a macho cop on the nights where I cop someone, due to being too prideful to accept help from other Aes Sedai while showing off my reasoning skills, even if it leads to my death. I felt that if I said this yesterday I'd just be toast immediately, but if this information makes sure we lynch the correct person first, so be it. And maybe scum won't believe me :wink:


This is very strange. Town!Vic has no reason to assume that scum!bessie would know his role in its entirety. It's doubly weird that scum!bessie would go along with this and claim macho cop retrospectively.

bessie wrote:And so, that’s that, you can’t do another vote analysis?

We will have someone confirmed. As soon as Vicarin posts.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


This post to me feels like bessie was expecting to counterclaim before Vic posted. But scum!bessie has no reason to necessarily assume she'd need to. Again, night play for scum is very weird here.


Aside from the above, if bessie is scum here, she is playing much more aggressively and pro-actively than she has in any of her previous scum games. I have been getting strong Town vibes on her since the middle of D1 or so. Vic's play has been very wishy-washy and weaker than his previous games as Town.

I think it's most likely that Vic is the scum cop here.

Vote: Vic

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Re: Wheel of Time 3 - A Divided Sisterhood (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:03 am UTC

Although I don't expect anyone to have a serious interest in this, I will mention that since we're at even numbers, No Lynching is probably a valid play here. Would likely give some clarity on bessie/Vic if nothing else.


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