Meta Mafia II: Day 5

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bessie
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby bessie » Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:54 pm UTC

Even under gloomy circumstances, it can be comforting to see friends and familiar places. The mood became a little less somber as they reminisced, and looked out over the backyard fence to the park on the other side.

mpolo: The park’s expanded a bit since the last time I was here. I like the new bike path. It looks like all the playground equipment’s been replaced too.
wam: Yeah they’ve finally put in a new jungle gym.
bessie: Oh yes, just like when we were kids! So many happy memories of that park!
LaserGuy: [gives bessie a puzzled stare] Well, um, ok. You do remember...
Madge: [leans over and mumbles in a low voice to LaserGuy] Might be best to let this one drop.
moody7277: Is the therapy not going too well again?
Dog: Woof woof.
Madge: [to everyone] Well just want to say how happy I am to see you all, even if it has to be for such a heartbreaking event!
plytho: Hey, Diemo what about that game we used to play? The one we never finished.
BoomFrog: So if freezeblade was a good guy, who were the bad guys in that game?
Mark_Cangila: Yeah, we never did find out.
Diemo: Ah, I could tell you, or we can continue the game and you can try to work it out.
jimbobmacdoodle: Sure, why not? We’re all here.
Madge: I don’t think bessie is all here.
Diemo: Let’s see, where were we?


Official Votals:

moody7277 (1) : BoomFrog
wam (1) : LaserGuy

Not Voting (7) : jimbobmacdoodle, Madge, Mark_Cangila, moody7277, mpolo, plytho, wam

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to hammer.

Deadline is Wednesday 8PM GMT+1 .



Madge wrote:Mods: can you please see if someone is willing to replace me on the 25th?
If you or anyone else needs to drop out, we will do our best to try to find a replacement.

Madge wrote:When is the deadline?
I’m going to need to defer this to Diemo, since he’s the one that will be calling it. Five days would put it on Tuesday, June 19th, 8PM GMT, but it will depend on when Diemo is available.

Edit: Deadline is Wednesday 8PM GMT+1
Last edited by bessie on Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:26 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:27 pm UTC

Hey, sorry I've not posted anything in the last 24 hours - I've been distracted by other things. I'll get a set of responses and comments, followed by a big reads list tomorrow afternoon/evening.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby Madge » Sun Jun 17, 2018 4:28 am UTC

Thanks Bessie. If we have short deadlines I can probably stay till the end of D4.

Mark_Cangila wrote:Note: I am not saying Madge is a werewolf or SK. I am merely saying she could be, and a second fruit claim would be nice.

I don’t think mafia gets anything out of town thinking we’ve got a fruit vendor, especially because if we have e.g. a town neighboriser, they know for sure there’s no fruit vendor, and after they’ve used their power they have no usefulness except as named townie, so they can counterclaim the fruit recipient and out scum because who else would lie about fruit? Ditto someone who actually got fruit or the actual fruit vendor saying they gave it to someone else, etc. So I think this is a blind alley unless you can propose a sensible strategy scum might follow where letting town think they have a fruit vendor is advantageous.

I agree fruit recipient should not claim, can verify fruit vendor if needed later on.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:01 am UTC

Partial reads...

wam:
Rereading him mostly solidified my earlier impression that he's been coasting a fair bit this game. He has a lot of posts, but especially in D2, he basically just sat on the SDK wagon and didn't really spend much time either looking at alternatives or trying to scum hunt much beyond that. While I feel to an extent this is true of plytho as well, plytho feels much more genuine in tone and was at least actively engaging with SDK and trying to push his case. My feeling is wam more had SDK as the designated lynch and wasn't really going to look anywhere else. As I allude to in my questions above, I find it troubling that wam suddenly starts backpedaling on SDK very late in the Day.


moody:
I don't care much for his progression on SDK. Had him up to a Town lean after the first extension, but then went ahead and voted for him anyway. I don't generally like people trying to lynch for information, which is moody's stated reason. I did get the vibe that he was hedging on the SDK lynch D2, though my feeling was that pointed more to a buddy unsure if he needed to bus or not.


Madge:
My biggest concern is her voting in D2. In D1, Madge was reading SDK as Town, and seemed surprised by the speed of his wagon. On the second page of D2, she decides plytho's case looks good after all and votes him immediately, and spends most of the remainder of the day talking strategy. I don't like that she also stopped pursuing anything on Mark or me after D1, but I can tentatively accept that this is probably at least in part due to her inability to keep up with the bessie meta.


Mark:
The dearth of strong content makes it very hard to evaluate him one way or the other. I feel his vote on SDK feels opportunistic and scummy. That said, my gut here is probably more likely to be Town due to a few pings that I've had earlier, but fairly low confidence. There's a lot here that I'm not sure if it is newbie weirdness or scum weirdness (or both, I guess).


Won't have time reread everyone today, but of these four, I'm looking at:
wam - scum
Madge - scum
moody - scum lean
Mark - Town lean

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby plytho » Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:21 pm UTC

Moody: Early D1 moody focussed on Mark because he considered the werewolf question to be indicative of mark’s werewolfness. Knowing there are no werewolves (scum knew this from pregame) this is an easy spot for scum to hide. It allows them to be active and talking while not contributing anything relevant to the game, in the meantime they’re pretending not to know the setup by speculating about setups they know we’re not in.

His motivation for voting SDK feels quite hedged. D2 has a couple of reads on other people (mark, mpolo, LaserGuy and freezeblade) no update on SDK but keeps intention to vote SDK and does vote in the end.

I feel, generally, moody is avoiding taking a strong position on anyone. The only strong position he took himself was that Mark was probably a werewolf, which feels like an odd push.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby plytho » Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:33 pm UTC

Ooh, another point on moody is his relatively strong response to Sabrar's 'keep this secret thing quiet' gambit.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby moody7277 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 12:45 pm UTC

I think Mark missed the part where we've eliminated the possibility of a second killing faction with fb's flip.

Town
mpolo

plytho
jimbob

BoomFrog
Madge
wam

LaserGuy

Mark
scum

Vote: Mark
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby plytho » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:05 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:I think Mark missed the part where we've eliminated the possibility of a second killing faction with fb's flip.

Do you think town!mark wouldn't miss that part? Is this part of scum strategy or do you think scum!mark came up with this on his own?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:21 pm UTC

I like your work LaserGuy. So, if only one of wam and Moody are scum which do you think it is?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:46 pm UTC

@Madge and Mark: What is your opinion of wam and Moody?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby BoomFrog » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:48 pm UTC

Almost forgot the last M haha.

@mpolo: What is your opinion of wam and moody?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby plytho » Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:58 pm UTC

Mark: the pm question could have been scum-chat related. His interactions with Madge feel a little staged perhaps? Neither of their votes make all that much sense to me. It’s a nice bit of distancing that they don’t have to keep up all game since we’ll find out soon enough there are no wolves. On the other hand, mark’s general tone feels like newbie town. I don’t see his bad fruit plan coming from scum.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby plytho » Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:29 pm UTC

Madge: mark vote D1 on shaky reasoning. SDK vote D2 because of my ironclad logic. I can buy that her D1 mark tunnel was a combination of roleplay and actual tunneling. There’s a chance it was staged and she’s scum with mark, but in general I feel there are scummier people than Madge.

Madge wrote:No fruit for me today. I guess the fruit vendor didn’t want to use the fruit list on me :(. That’s OK, I forgive you this time!
Why would you expect the fruit vendor to target the same person twice?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby moody7277 » Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:35 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
moody7277 wrote:I think Mark missed the part where we've eliminated the possibility of a second killing faction with fb's flip.

Do you think town!mark wouldn't miss that part? Is this part of scum strategy or do you think scum!mark came up with this on his own?


It's mostly a null tell. Really what it says is that he hasn't been noticing that several people have said "We're in this or this setup because of the claims and flips", and also probably didn't check back with the mafiascum wiki. Reminds me of this commercial where the lady is all "I'd like to grill outside, but the wolves..."

Madge

Spoiler:
D1
post 1: confirm, welcomes Mark
post 2: answer to Mark on the PM issue
post 3: welcomes threetwoone, disturbed by fb's blanket vote policy, PM issue is scummy, odd that plytho picks most optimistic setup, fruit setup

I guess being welcoming is part of the bessie RP. Of course plytho turns out to be right on the next to last point, and her last point has a bit of irony considering later events

post 4: setup spec, with a reasonable amount of concern re wolves, explanation re Sungura meta, other responses
post 5: apology to threetwoone about shortening his screenname, asks me about the counter-list
post 6: squees over mpolo's avatar change
post 7: aproves of my read on Mark, comparing LG's lack of content unfavorably to fb's as pointed out by Sabrar, sorry for picking bessie over Sabrar
post 8: questions someone over lack of scumhunting

Very likely directed at Sabrar at this point, based of post 7

post 9: response to Mark about his continued concern with wolves, with increased suspicion, concerned that fruit vendor would give mafia full setup
post 10: puzzled over Mark's wolf strategy question, votes Mark, moves on to fb's team breakdown, LG comment about game-breaking, response to jimbob over being too unconcerned re SK, more fruit vendor stuff
post 11: responses to RP, town-to-scum (err, woof to grr) list with Vicarin and Sabrar on top, Mark and LG most scummy
post 12: Mark still scummy, more RP responses, puzzled by speed of SDK wagon, has a town read on him, some reasoning on LG read

D2
post 13: Still thinks Mark scummy, but is swayed by plytho's case. votes SDK. more informed setup spec, and fruit vendor stuff

and for the second time, she reassures us that scum would be just as happy to claim a fruit as town

post 14: disagreement with plytho on setup point and whether fruit recipient should claim, advice to Mark on timing result publishing.
post 15: more in depth speculation on fruit mechanics

amusing in hindsight since she already knew the answer to some of her questions

post 16: direct mod question on fruit
post 17: top two lynch prospects are SDK and Mark. claims getting a fruit! still basing her vote on SDK based off plytho's case
post 18: kind of satire on jimbob's fruit code, decides to call off the tunneling on Mark, but still thinks he's scummy
post 19: semi-fluff
post 20: town-to-scum list, with plytho and mpolo on top, Mark and SDK at bottom
post 21: repsonse to mpolo re Mark, likes plytho's take on fb, plytho to be found scummy if town!SDK, needs replaced after 25th

D3
post 22: claims not getting a fruit! strongman would have overridded fb's jailing attempt, response to LG about nuance of SDK read, question about LG's reasoning on BoomFrog.
post 23: mod question
post 24: discussion with Mark on how second fruit claim is not necessary.


So I figure the tunneling on Mark early on is the second part of bessie RP. I think I'm comfortable with her position on the town-scum list as previously stated.

ninja'd by plytho with an interesting addendum. Maybe I should swap her and wam's positions?
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby plytho » Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:41 pm UTC

I feel I'm running out of steam here so I'll wait with LaserGuy, jimbob and Boomfrog until tomorrow.

moody7277 wrote:It's mostly a null tell.
The way you posted it it looks like the trigger for your vote.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby Mark_Cangila » Sun Jun 17, 2018 5:30 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:@Mark: What would be the point of Madge lying about receiving a fruit? She isn't claiming fruit vendor herself. Can you explain what you mean by the lynch not working?

The point if her lying would be to hide setup from us, but I missed the fact that FB's flip removes the chance of wolves, so her lying would be useless. By lynch not working I mean it wasn't going to happen. A wagon wasn't going to form, so I switched to other scummy players.
BoomFrog wrote:@Madge and Mark: What is your opinion of wam and Moody?

I'll answer this when I get home. I need to do a reread.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby mpolo » Sun Jun 17, 2018 6:28 pm UTC

I believe I had wam as mostly townie with some question marks. I haven't done a full read on moody. I think that is probably a priority, but I just wasted two hours watching Germany lose, and now my foot is hurting from too much sitting. (I sincerely hope this gets better soon. Now it's only one foot that bothers me if I try to sit too long, so there is hope.) I think I am going to head to bed early and try to get that read in tomorrow. (And look at wam again, as he is popping up on a lot of lists recently.)
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:04 pm UTC

wam wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
wam wrote:Nothing just your normally more analytical and cautious than that.

I did my analysis already at the end of D2.


This is scummy in my mind as it implies boom knew sdk Lignment
An interesting thought, but I think it is worth noting that, IIRC, BoomFrog was one of those who didn't believe SDK to be scum.
moody7277 wrote:His final post sums up the main point I've noticed, and that is he has spectacularly bad luck in his reads. All four town flips he has at some point thought of as scummy. Of course it could be he's scum and is just finding players scummy in order to vote for them. :P Not that I can find much of anything to support that.
This conclusion feels like a possible buddy conclusion to me. Definitely worth looking at this possible team more if the other ever flips scum.
mpolo wrote:Asking power roles to claim at this point likely gives us no scum counter-claims (because scum can just kill the claimed PR in the night period), so pretty negative utility there.
Completely agree with this. I'm assuming that if either remaining power role had something that could somehow indicate who is scum, then they'd have claimed by now (although obviously it's up to them).
plytho wrote:wam:<snip>This statement about LaserGuy looking scummy on an SDK or Vicarin flip feels like it comes from a townie perspective (considering both are town). It doesn't feel like reasoning that scum would come up with.
I just went back and looked, and I'm not convinced by it at all. At the point of LaserGuy's Vicarin vote, there were exactly 2 players with more than one vote on them (SDK and Mark), both with 2 votes on. I think it's entirely plausible for scum!wam to post his explanation, pretending to assume a known townie (from his point of view) is scum, and building a case from there. It does make a LaserGuy/wam team less likely though.
wam wrote:
plytho wrote:
wam wrote:How does this align with all the statements saying I like bussing earlier in the game?
Are you saying I should call you town for having 4 townies at the bottom of your list? That would be too easy for scum!you, wouldn't it?


Nope but I think it should be a null tell.
These wam posts sound a bit defensive. Will look at them and surrounding wam posts a bit more when I do my read of him later.

General feel from LaserGuy's more recent posts is pretty good. I like the questions he's asking, and particularly like his concerns surrounding wam and moody, though I'm less sure about those surrounding BoomFrog. His read on Madge picks up on some things that I don't remember noticing about Madge (namely her sudden(?) swing in opinion on SDK overnight).
Madge wrote:With 3 mafiosi, the tracker’s odds of clearing someone are low. Hopefully we can keep them alive!
How do you expect a tracker to clear someone, unless we are down to 1 scum? I'd kind of assumed that it would be more likely for them to clear a PR or out a scum killer.

Madge, what do you think of BoomFrog's attempts to lynch freezeblade late in D2?
mpolo wrote:So, scum is going with the classic "eliminate everyone who is contributing so that we are stuck with a dying thread that is easy to push along" strategy.
I assume this isn't meant to be taken seriously, given who died last night...?
Mark_Cangila wrote:I also was willing to vote SDK at a lower bar, as he was close to lynching, and so many people had classified people based on the SDK flip. We need to read with SDK flip in mind.
Have you done any of this? If so, what were your conclusions?
Mark_Cangila wrote:I didn't notice FB's soft claim, because each section was written in isolation (in that I only looked at the persons posts, not others posts about the person).
You reread me, and I explicitly pointed out freezeblade's soft-claim. What happened?
Mark_Cangila wrote:It would be really nice to get someone other than Madge to claim fruit. This is to confirm her fruit claim. I could see a situation, albeit unlikely, where she is SK or wolf and lies about fruit claim. 1 NK would make sense because she, possibly with a team mate, would be waiting for the scum town fight, before turning on town.
Note: I am not saying Madge is a werewolf or SK. I am merely saying she could be, and a second fruit claim would be nice.
I think this is a terrible idea, but it is worth noting that Mark isn't entirely incorrect - looking at Matrix 14, from public knowledge, we could still be in setup 7. However, I expect that the bodyguard would have counter-claimed Madge, and I don't see any benefit in anybody lying about the fruit. I'm not sure how I feel about this post overall - I think it's possible this is just newbie!Mark, not specifically newbie-scum!Mark, though in general, suggesting terrible plans seems scummy to me.

On plytho's read of moody, I feel like most of it are good points. However, one thing that pings me slightly is the first paragraph:
plytho wrote:Moody: Early D1 moody focussed on Mark because he considered the werewolf question to be indicative of mark’s werewolfness. Knowing there are no werewolves (scum knew this from pregame) this is an easy spot for scum to hide. It allows them to be active and talking while not contributing anything relevant to the game, in the meantime they’re pretending not to know the setup by speculating about setups they know we’re not in.
Everything said here is true, but it doesn't imply scum!moody, since it's entirely reasonable for a townie to hunt wolves, if they aren't neglecting other scum!hunting too (note: I haven't looked back at moody to see if he was or not, although I don't remember having a particular issue with his early scum-hunting though).

Reads list to follow at some point later. Hopefully, with fewer players, it won't take me 4+ hours this time...
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jun 17, 2018 10:15 pm UTC

Today, I'm going to try reverse order, so that I can give people at the bottom end of the alphabet a fairer analysis. For reference, my previous list was here, and I'm continuing from there.

wam (previously slight town lean, although I had some issues):
Spoiler:
D2: reads list. BoomFrog switch from town!wam to scum!wam scummy (but maybe OMGUS); freezeblade netural; likes my reads, coming from town perspective; pass for LaserGuy due to RL; Madge could be scum if SDK scum - points out missed him off her reads list; Mark newbie town vibe D1, SDK vote odd; agreed with moody reads, feeling better about him; mpolo focuses on others; town read on plytho, getting stronger as considering non-SDK content. Was hoping freezeblade soft-claim would get overlooked, but wants SDK flip first before full claim, as extra mislynch can be used for competing claims. Points out PRs should check claims from others. Promises to reconsider D1 after discovered scum having pre-game chat. Pinged by moody comments about SDK/Mark more popular to lynch than FB. Explains more comments around FB popular lynch choice. Ran out of time before reaching SDK, thinks him scum, but wouldn't be surprised by town flip. Not going to switch wagons late, due to no chance for moody to claim.

D3: Surprised by flips. Needs to re-read. Thinks scum are lying low, so wants to review Madge and Mark. Comments on BF's early vote. Suggests he's more analytical than that normally. Thought counter-wagons were odd, thought it was scum trying to avoid being on a town lynch. BF's statement that he did analysis back on D2 as scummy, implied he knew SDK's alignment. Wants to have a deeper look at BF and me, scum is likely to be in players I can't read well. Challenges plytho on his reasons for finding him scummy. Thinks 4 townies at bottom of scum list should be a null tell. Didn't switch votes because too close to day end.
I'm really not liking wam's content in the time period I've reread. Practically everything he's said looks bad to me. I've already highlighted some things, but here's a recap. First up, his reads list was okay for the most part seems okay, but it did include a (self-admitted) OMGUS read of BoomFrog, no actual conclusion on mpolo (possible buddy link?), and no update on his current vote, SDK (stated due to running out of time, but surely should have been a priority if time was limited). I'm putting his comments about realising scum had pre-game chat and town PR claims alignment as null, since both could easily come from scum. His backing down on his opinion of scum!SDK is particularly bad, given SDK's flip. I'd say it also makes a Mark/wam team much more likely, given Mark was, at the time, the closest to an alternative wagon. He's also being a bit contradictory with where he thinks scum is, and has yet to provide a promised re-read on Madge or Mark (scum are lying low) or me and BoomFrog (scum are likely to be in players he can't read well). I've also previously indicated my dislike of his dig at BoomFrog's early D3 vote. Finally, I'm getting a bit of a weak defensive tone from some of his more recent posts. Conclusion: I think wam is scum.
wam wrote:Based on what we have seen scum are lying low so that means I want to look at Madge and Mark again.
@wam - I'm not sure you ever explained what made you think scum are lying low? Would you? Also, you later said that you think scum is going to be amongst those you can't read well (highlighting me and BoomFrog). Why? Also which is it? Both? Neither? What's happened to the promised re-read?

plytho (previously probably town):
Spoiler:
D2: Pinged by SDK post, suggesting buddies should kill freezeblade. Considers freezeblade to have soft-claimed PR. Assumes him town, SDK scum. Scum will probably try to NK freezeblade. Fine waiting for D3 for FB counter-claims. Explains SDK ping. Reads list: BF general feel is town, but possible buddy with SDK, generally coming from townie perspective. Freezeblade should claim D3, and defends him. Me - probably town. I look very good if SDK is town. Wonders about my read on moody and Mark. Waiting for D3 LG content. Madge still slightly scummy. Mark slipping due to low content. Doesn't think Mark/SDK buddies. Moody reads feel original and natural, moving towards townie side. Mpolo - remains town read. SDK scum (reads list has too many townies). wam - some suspicious bits if SDK town, otherwise townie. Surprised by Mafia having pre-game chat, might have to reread. Accepts BF has a point on FB's soft claim. Prods LG for vote. Thinks Mark pre-game chat might be indicative that he had scum chat. Unvotes SDK to prevent hammer. Thinks unlikely SDK would hammer, so replaces the vote. Moody wagon worth checking D3.

D3: Finds wam, Mark, moody suspicious following flips. Definitely in setup 10. Strongman useless now. Needs to read with a fresh look at everyone. Not going to give those moving the SDK lynch away a free pass. Will pay attention to late defenders. Might look closer at those who tried to lynch freezeblade. Possible hint that FB tried to jail me, but he had nothing to claim, so nothing to read into it. Suggests a wam/moody team in response to my comment on wam's challenge to BF's vote. FB's N1 target useless. Starts reading people individually. wam: having 4 confirmed townies at bottom of list looks bad, but reasoning is okay. Other comments come from a townie perspective. Doesn't like his top 2 proposal (less info than top 3 or 4). Also doesn't like "wouldn't be surprised if town!SDK". Push on BF vote quite weird. Could definitely be scum, but other things seem townie. Mpolo: D1 content looks good. Thinks scum would have preferred to lynch SDK. D2 no vote is concerning, and lack of promised reads on several players looks bad. Active lurky feel, and non-committal position is comfortable for scum. Asks mpolo about his decent town reads. No way SK would lie about the fruit claim. Second recipient should not claim. Moody: early focus on Mark's werewolfiness easy spot for scum to hide in. Motivation for voting SDK quite hedged, and notes that he doesn't update his view on SDK. Thinks he's avoiding taking a strong position on anyone. Asks moody questions about Mark's fruit plan. Mark: PM question could be scum-chat related. Interactions with Madge a little staged? General tone feels newbie town. Doesn't see fruit plan coming from scum. Madge: Interaction with Mark could be staged, but feels like there are scummier people than Madge. Asks her why would a fruit vendor target the same person twice.
@plytho - you didn't come to a town/scum conclusion on mpolo or moody in your read (although I can probably guess with regards to moody). Could you provide an ordered list as far as you are happy with, please?

Plytho probably has the most content of the remaining players, and I'd say about 95% of makes me read him as pretty solidly town. I feel like everything he's said so far is coming from a genuine townie perspective. I agree with a number of concerns he has about most people. I do feel like he's giving a little bit of an easy pass to Mark, but that's my only significant concern with him. Very likely town.

mpolo (previously leaning town):
Spoiler:
D2: tending to think plytho is town, but wants to reread him. Comfortable with Madge. Unsure about Mark, but PM-gate increases chance of town-PR. Provides read of plytho, highlighting lots of smaller arguments against non-SDK players as well as his SDK case. Reasonably confident in a town read. Thinks SDK made honest mistake, and needs to re-read him in isolation. Rereads wam. Only weird thing highlighted is a misunderstanding of wam's comments surrounding PR claims. Not jumping on Mark's timing error is more townie. Wam not a viable lynch target. Feels SDK best choice of lynch, but no strong feeling on him. Looks at freezeblade. Can read his maintaining the OMGUS vote on me either way. Overall kind of scummy.

D3: Late D1 one read on SDK turned out to be okay. Refrained from voting due to indecision. Says we just shouldn't mislynch (duh!). Has confirmed townie with one suspicion, but nothing makes his opinion better or worse than others. Should look seriously at SDK's reads. Highlights results of PRs. Can't see any way to leverage PR info. Scum going with eliminate everybody who is contributing. Has couple of decent town reads, no real scummy ones. Convinced plytho is town, and reading Madge as townie, maybe one more. Had wam as mostly townie with some question marks. Hasn't done a full read on moody.
Plytho highlighted that mpolo feels kind of active lurky, and I can certainly see that in some of his most recent content (especially D3). His D3 comments can be summarised as: 1) My town read of SDK was correct, explains lack of vote (okay), confirms setup numbers (meh); 2) Says we should look at SDK's reads, but doesn't actually do so himself (bad), also highlights PR info (meh), highlighting that we need to do normal scum hunting (and has not done any since, so bad); 3) this post feels like it should have been his first post of the day (bad); 4) plytho and Madge town, maybe one more (good); 5) wam also maybe town, need to reread moody (ok). I don't have a big issue with most of his D2 content, except for the fact that he didn't the leading vote candidate (SDK), and didn't place a vote. This looks particularly bad if one of the other wagons turns out to be scum (I'm thinking Mark or moody). Conclusion: the time period covered by this post looks quite bad for mpolo, but my earlier town read of him should be taken into account, so slightly leaning scum, but not definitively.

@mpolo - what are you doing to get some scum reads?

moody (previously slightly suspicious):
Spoiler:
D2: read of LaserGuy - hard to get through early posts, remainder confused by. Should be nervous about him. Read of FB - not a fan of his soft claims. Wouldn't feel too bad voting for him. Non votables - mpolo, me, plytho; unsure - Madge, BF, wam; votable: SDK, FB, Mark, LG. Responds to my comments about his SDK vote intention, and reconsidered Mark townie vibe. Thinks FB is claiming PR. Votes SDK, threatening to vote anybody who hammers.

D3: SDK flip didn't help much. Was hoping other shad better perspective. Giving plytho benefit of the doubt because of his earnestness. Plans to read through Madge and wam. Reads wam, and highlights his "bad luck" with his reads. Can't find much to support wam just being scum, finding players scummy to vote for them. Tries to defend his D2 SDK vote, as still wanting to get the info he could. Other reads were to look for other possible scum. Mark acceptable lynch target. Concerned that BoomFrog is being opportunistic. Plytho diversifying his read makes him not sure that he is scum. Provides ordered list (mpolo towniest, Mark scummiest) and votes Mark. Mark missing the lack of possible second faction is null tell. Read of Madge, tunnel on Mark is part of bessie RP, and happy with her mid-list.
Yeah, I kind of echo what others have said regarding moody. He doesn't seem to be taking any firm stances on most people. Even his Mark vote seems a little bit like it could swing away again, based on some of his earlier comments about him. He is steadily looking at most players (although I don't remember him ever reading me?), but the conclusions are a bit weak, at least recently. Still leaning scummy, though I think he's not the scummiest. Certainly, he's a possible buddy of both mpolo and wam. Probably not Mark, due to the vote, but I'm not certain.

Mark (previously probably scum):
Spoiler:
D2: Unable to post reads, but remembers BF townie due to good content and opposing wagon; FB is quiet; I am townie due to good reads and scum hunting. Maintaining SDK vote. Says will be a bit less active. No time for a full read of moody, asks for wagon summary. SDK is scummy, and would give info.

D3: Partial reads list - leans town on BF, happy with how quickly he changed from SDK to wam. Neutral on FB. Very townie on me. Fine with LG's Vic vote. If SDK!scum, Madge may be scum. Explains his willingness to vote SDK. We need to read with SDK flip in mind. Didn't notice FB soft claim. Thinks my scum read of him is justified. Switched vote D1 off Madge because her lynch wasn't going to work. More convinced she is town, now that there are no wolves. Wants someone else to claim fruit to prevent SK or wolf!Madge lying about it. Missed FB flip removed chance of wolves. Needs to do a reread.
I'm still uncomfortable with Mark. His lack of reads on half the players, including basically all the scummy players (wam, and moody in particular) isn't great. Having thought about it, I'm inclined to think that the bad fruit-claiming plan is not alignment indicative, since I don't think scum!Mark would be deliberately trying to mislead us with this. He hasn't really improved from my earlier opinion, so still scummy, although I think others have probably decreased enough to make him no longer my top scum pick.

Madge (previously sliding into scum territory):
Spoiler:
D2: Ordered list - plytho (good case, trying), mpolo (little content, but Sungura means trustworthy...) good; Mark (PMgate less suspect), SDK (plytho's case) bad. Plytho will be in the hot seat if SDK flips town. Doesn't think Mark werewolf interest coming from scum. Like plytho's strategy re. FB claim. Still thinks Mark's D1 content scummy, and reaction scummier. Thinks scum!Mark would be irate about being found scummy. Plytho's case on SDK would be the same whether from town or scum. Backs off a little on her plytho hot seat comment. Asks about mafia pre-game chat. Slight town leans on people talking about not knowing setup stuff, if yes. Thinks FB more likely scum than predicted by chance. No particular opinion on the claiming.

D3: No fruit N2. Lays out setup and restates her fruit breadcrumb. Tracker's odds of clearing someone are low. FB targeting info is null. Tries to explain her SDK vote a bit more. Asks LG about why BF pointing out FB PR claim bad. Doesn't understand why we'd vote off a PR soft claim. Doesn't think Mafia gets anything out of town thinking we've got a fruit vendor, due to risk of counterclaim. Fruit recipient shouldn't claim.
Madge is being, well, Madge at this point. I'm once again feeling like I don't have a clear up-to-date picture of her opinions on anybody. From Madge, this is quite normal however. Everything she's said recently is pretty typical of her. However, since she once again doesn't appear to be committing to an opinion, I have no option but to label her as slightly scummy, but heavily tempered by Madge meta at this point.

@Madge - what's your current woof/grr list look like? Any chance of getting a 1-2 sentence explanation on the positioning too?

LaserGuy (previously borderline very slightly scummy):
Spoiler:
D2: Puts Madge and others on naughty list for not responding to him. Thinks SDKvPlytho TvT, due to the way the argument has gone down. Sabrar probably didn't want to discuss VT claiming. Asks Madge about her plytho SDK case null tell comments and her SDK read. Has Madge (opportunistic SDK vote), wam (if SDK town, egging on conflict but leaving plytho to take the blame), moody naughty (if SDK is scum, possibly buddy hedging, but other content okay). Has everyone else except BF and FB nice. Votes Madge. Considering between Mark or SDK.

D3: Encourages Mark to talk to people. Asks him various questions on SDK and Madge. Also asks wam about SDK and his changing opinion, plus the Mark/moody wagons. Asks Madge about her SDK read and possible conflict. Asks moody about his SDK scum read etc, and current reads etc. BoomFrog's comments D2 around Freezeblade look bad in retrospect, due to him fishing for a soft-claimed-PR lynch, when he couldn't full claim. Compares it to NNY. Asks wam why he didn't prioritise SDK re-read. Continues prodding moody and wam. Votes wam. Does not think BF was attempting to signal to buddies. Asks mpolo for ordered list. Asks Mark about point of Madge lying about fruit. Gives partial read of wam (scum, backpedalling, not looking elsewhere), moody (scum lean, didn't like progression on SDK, hedging felt more likely coming from a buddy), Madge (scum, D2 vote a surprise, too much strategy talk), Mark (town lean, SDK vote opportunistic, but more likely town due to pings).
LaserGuy seems to have more-or-less reverted to type, and his content is better for it. I would like to see further reads on the other players he has yet to consider though, especially BoomFrog, who he seems to have some suspicions of. My biggest concern with him is the lack of moving his Madge vote at the end of D2, despite indicating that he was considering whether to move it. This doesn't look great if moody were to flip scum, since he had him on the naughty list previously. Overall though, I'm leaning town on LaserGuy again.

BoomFrog (previously townie vibe):
Spoiler:
D2: Explains Sungura meta. Thinks Freezeblade needs to be lynched, since he's confident he's scum. SDK anger could come from scum. Innocent mistakes more likely to come from scum. Has me, plytho, mpolo town. Mark, wam, SDK, freezeblade. Mark and Madge most likely buddies with wam or FB. But possible scum!SDK might have told them to bus him. Tries to convince plytho that we should lynch FB despite soft claim. Asks lots of people to comment on FB's PR claim. Switches vote from FB to Mark - wam gives townie vibes, Mark generally scummy and possible SDK-buddy. Moody more likely possible buddy with Mark or FB and wam not. Considers possible buddies for scum!SDK - Mark/LaserGuy/Madge highest, me, FB, mpolo, plytho, wam unlikely. Also considers town!SDK implications - wam due to letting wagon roll without pushing it, and dislikes other content; FB not caring about D1 vote; moody for not looking into the SDK wagon speed on D1. Me and plytho very unlikely. Happy to move vote to wam, if there's support. Switches instead ot moody, agrees likely scum.

D3: Immediately votes moody. Then responds to wam's criticism, and queries LG concern surrounding FB. Suspects FB was role-copped N1. Might want to look at who was overly accepting of PR soft claim, but rules me out for being too explicit about it. wam and moody top suspects, since his previous analysis is unchanged. Explains difference between NNY-Madge soft claim and FB soft claim. And explains he reckoned there would be time for a hard claim from FB. Wants mpolo to explain dying thread comment. Asks LG who, if only wam and moody are scum, which is scum. Also asks mpolo, Madge and Mark about their opinions on wam and moody.
I generally like everything that's coming from BoomFrog. He put quite a bit of effort into his analysis, from both possible outcomes, of SDK being lynched, and is continuing with it, appropriately. I'd be interested if he's got any updated thoughts based on today's contents, but overall I have no problem putting a town label on him.

So, I feel like I have too many scum reads :| I guess that's better than everybody being town. Here's my current order anyway:

Town
plytho
BoomFrog
LaserGuy
Madge
mpolo
moody
Mark
wam
Scum

Vote wam
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby wam » Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:29 am UTC

I'm back. Been skim reading over the weekend though. Guess no one on this forum can read me.

Gut is saying boom jimbob team with an agreed plan overnight to push the lynch onto me. But I want a re read looking for links before I will call that definite.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby wam » Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:31 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
wam wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
wam wrote:Nothing just your normally more analytical and cautious than that.

I did my analysis already at the end of D2.


This is scummy in my mind as it implies boom knew sdk Lignment

Are you completely not paying attention?


What do you mean?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby plytho » Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:36 am UTC

You have a point jimbob, in fact I actually changed my mind on mark last night. His pregame post fit a scum-mark a little too well.
The timing of the werewolf question matches newbie scum confusing the start of scum chat with the start of the game. The content of the werewolf question matches Mark's knowledge of how scum should play (get town to talk about stuff that isn't relevant. I can look up a quote later if necessary). The pm question also matches the pre-game scum chat. Mark has had chat before, so the outbox issue could be indicative of the fact that he was in a hurry to get an answer. That urgency makes more sense for pre-game chat that is limited in time. Less so for a posting restriction.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:00 am UTC

mpolo:
I've been having difficulty with mpolo all game and am still not quite sure how to sort him. His progression on SDK seems fairly natural and reasonable. I'm somewhat concerned that I don't really have a good sense of where he is on most players and don't really get the sense that he has any real scumreads at the moment. Would love to see more from him. Going to put him at neutral and try to come back to this again later.

plytho:
I have got nothing but townpings from plytho all game. His conviction in his read on SDK just feels so authentic, I just really have a hard time believing he could fake this as scum. Would be very surprised if he were to flip scum at this point.

jimbob:
Like plytho, there's an authenticity to his posts that feels very hard to fake. Reads are well supported and is actively scumhunting. Looks very solid Town at this point.

BoomFrog:
Really tough one for me. I think his progression on SDK feels very good, and I like that he was actively looking for alternatives and pushing other avenues. Both moody and wam pushes feel credible and well motivated to me. I don't like the freezeblade push in particular, since I am a bit skeptical that BoomFrog wouldn't give more credibility to freezeblade's softclaim, and attempting to push the lynch onto a softclaimed Town PR is something I think Boom might at least attempt as scum if he thought he could get away with it. I like most of his other content and his reads seem well thought out. I think I'm going to put him down as a skeptical Town lean for now and see how things develop going forward.

I guess that gives something like:

Town
LaserGuy
plytho
jimbob
Mark
BoomFrog
mpolo
moody
Madge
wam
Scum

BoomFrog wrote:I like your work LaserGuy. So, if only one of wam and Moody are scum which do you think it is?


My read is stronger on wam, but I can see it going either way.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:13 am UTC

wam wrote:Gut is saying boom jimbob team with an agreed plan overnight to push the lynch onto me. But I want a re read looking for links before I will call that definite.
OMGUS much? When did we agree this plan? N2? Why is scum!BoomFrog not already voting you in this case? Why is LaserGuy?
wam wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Are you completely not paying attention?


What do you mean?
I suggest you go back and re-read BoomFrog's near end-of-day analysis post relating to SDK. At least, I assume that's what he's referring to.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby wam » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:47 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
wam wrote:Gut is saying boom jimbob team with an agreed plan overnight to push the lynch onto me. But I want a re read looking for links before I will call that definite.
OMGUS much? When did we agree this plan? N2? Why is scum!BoomFrog not already voting you in this case? Why is LaserGuy?


Boomfrog isn't voting me he is clearly lining it up though. Laser guys feels more natural. And yeah n2 plan would be my guess. As I said it's a gut feel it could be omgus. This feels like an overreaction.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby Diemo » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:59 am UTC

Deadline is Wednesday 8PM GMT+1 (or ya know, when I or bessie get online after that :) )
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:07 am UTC

wam wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
wam wrote:Gut is saying boom jimbob team with an agreed plan overnight to push the lynch onto me. But I want a re read looking for links before I will call that definite.
OMGUS much? When did we agree this plan? N2? Why is scum!BoomFrog not already voting you in this case? Why is LaserGuy?


Boomfrog isn't voting me he is clearly lining it up though. Laser guys feels more natural. And yeah n2 plan would be my guess. As I said it's a gut feel it could be omgus. This feels like an overreaction.
*shrug* Call it an overreaction if you want. I'm reacting to a gut suspicion that has come out of nowhere, from my point of view. At this stage (i.e. D3), I'm expecting more concrete reasons for accusations such as this. Independent of any possible link between us, why do you find me and BoomFrog scummy?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby mpolo » Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:24 pm UTC

Moody, starting page 10:

Spoiler:
Sees SDK not voting Vicarin as major point in favor of his towniness. Was voting SDK end-of-day (despite this?). Mark is not a werewolf.

Thought it worthwhile to lynch SDK D1 due to jimbob’s post (which puts suspicion on wam, moody and myself).

Mark has early weirdness, tunnelling on Madge. Early on Vicarin wagon. Likely newbie town. Comfortable with myself as town.

Uncomfortable advising PR’s on what to do. Little posting today. Intent to vote SDK, don’t want L-1.

Didn’t vote SDK right away because of overly fast wagon. LaserGuy is confusing, general bad feeling. Some concern about freezeblade, willing to vote him. Ordered list, scum in SDK, freezeblade, Mark and LaserGuy.

Puts SDK at L-1 with warning not to hammer. On the surface, fb is probably PR. Comment about likelihood of fb lynch.

SDK lynch helped less than expected. Plytho likely town. Must reread Madge and wam.

Wam has called all four town flips scummy, but still seems fairly townie. Considers Mark a good lynch target. BoomFrog is opportunistic. Plytho has enough content on other players that he is likely town.

Now convinced of Mark’s scumminess because of missing that the second killing faction can’t exist. LaserGuy is second. Oops, missing that was a null-tell. But it does seem like Mark isn’t paying attention to the thread. Madge was roleplaying on Mark tunnel. Some chance of being scum with Mark.


There seems to be a little bit of inconsistency in his positions, but a generally townie feel. He's somewhere in the middle of the pack.

Let's look at the whole list (a lot of this is gut, because of lacking time):

Madge => I am reading fairly townie
LaserGuy => Somewhere on the scummy side of neutral
Sabrar - Nightkilled D1 - Vanilla Town
wam => somewhere on the townie side of neutral
moody7277 => somewhere on the townie side of neutral
Vicarin - Lynched D1 - Vanilla Town
plytho => townie
SDK - Lynched D2 - Vanilla Town
threetwoone Boomfrog => NEED TO REVIEW
jimbobmacdoodle => general townie vibes, but needs review
Freezeblade - Killed N2 - Jailkeeper
Mark_Cangila => General suspicion makes him an important NEED TO REVIEW candidate.

I hope that I can get back in here again today, hopefully with some more analysis. But I don't know what my time is going to look like — spent 2 hours in a doctor's office getting a bandage changed today… But everything is healing well, so that's positive.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:39 pm UTC

Mpolo, from your list, it looks like you have one, maybe two scummy reads? Who do you think is the scum team currently? Will you be voting before day end in a bit over 48 hours?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby plytho » Mon Jun 18, 2018 2:43 pm UTC

LaserGuy: as I've said before, his Vicarin vote D1 feels very townie to me. He could have easily avoided voting using the roleplay excuse or just voted another lynchable townie with a vote. Breaking the tie D1 towards the vicarin lynch is also townie as SDK is more dangerous to scum than Vicarin. (On the other hand the D2 SDK lynch may have been more likely than the D2 vicarin lynch, so that's scum motivation for that tie breaker).

LaserGuy's opening post D3 opening post is very townie, asking some really solid questions. I especially like his push against Madge.

His latest reads list is solid too.

If LaserGuy is scum he's playing a stellar game because I see nothing but town.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby plytho » Mon Jun 18, 2018 3:10 pm UTC

So, I had less time than expected today and belgium just kicked off so jimbob and boomfrog will have to wait until tomorrow.

I do get a general town feel from both so I feel fine ordering this list for now:

plytho
LaserGuy
jimbob*
boomfrog*
madge
wam
mpolo
Moody
Mark

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:47 pm UTC

wam wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
wam wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
wam wrote:Nothing just your normally more analytical and cautious than that.

I did my analysis already at the end of D2.


This is scummy in my mind as it implies boom knew sdk Lignment

Are you completely not paying attention?


What do you mean?
Answer the question. Do you feel you are paying carful attention to the game?
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby moody7277 » Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:21 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:He is steadily looking at most players (although I don't remember him ever reading me?)


Well, just so you don't feel left out:

jimbob

Spoiler:
D1
post 1: confirm
post 2: joke votes wam, no setup spec
post 3: calls out fb on his stated vote policy, mentions avatar switching
post 4: discusses wam's OMGUS statement with perhaps Vicarin as scummy, appreciates fb's vote for him, questions LaserGuy on his "Sabrar is town" statement

various RP grumblings about D1 all throughout

post 5: fluff
post 6: some questions for people, foses Sabrar about the all-scum "reads" list
post 7: reads list, about evenly split between scummy lean, town lean, and don't know, followed by town->scum list with Madge and me up top and fb and Mark at bottom. switches vote to fb. only first fruit getter should claim
post 8: repsonses to people, wants Mark to expand his reads
post 9: can't take credit for calling Sabrar on "reads" list
post 10: more fb RP, responses to Sabrar on his super secret item, how jimbob fosed him, dislikes plytho's reads list
post 11: notices Mark's oops
post 12: updates reads. same bottom two, Sabrar and plytho top two
post 13: reaction to Vicarin's explantaion for the favorite numbers question is he's scummy, fb wagon going nowhere, switches vote to Vicarin

very understandable concern

post 14: response to Vicarin about the reaction in post 13
post 15: response to plytho awaiting futher comments on plytho's vote on SDK
post 16: not on the SDK wagon
post 17: asks Mark about Vicarin
post 18&19: response to fb over jimbob's change in read for not posting overnight

bit of sympathy to fb in this case

post 20: almost everybody lurking, question to wam about his research on Vicarin
post 21: D1 blues, asks about my unvoting Mark, asks wam about being open with his Vicarin results
post 22: Asks Sabrar about plytho's "town slip"
post 23: concurs with Vicarin that Madge's read of Vicarin is odd
post 24: time crunch, SDK still not scummy
post 25: arguing with plytho about SDK read, SDK being diverse seems more townie, asks me why I switched to voting SDK
post 26: reread of Vicarin, sees scummy points, stands by vote
post 27: states plytho's case on SDK based on one minor detail.
post 28: plytho still wrong

D2
post 29: decides to reread plytho on SDK, asks fb why he was still so against jimbob
post 30: thread activity comments
post 31: follow on to post 30
post 32: first fruit recipient should claim, scum probably know setup now
post 33: wagon analysis. scum!SDK means mpolo and LaserGuy bad, town!SDK means wam, mpolo, me bad

mostly straight forward, although it is interesting how mpolo ends up bad in both scenarios

post 34: mentions typo in post 33
post 35: response to Madge's point about leaving scum in doubt as to backup, saying they really aren't going to be any more paranoid

Agree with jimbob here that a confirmable townie is better than any possibly short-lived paranoia of scum

post 36: updated reads list, dislikes BoomFrog assuming scum!SDK for his reads, bottom two still fb and Mark, unsure on plytho, wam, SDK.
post 37: agrees with LG on his Vicarin vote (despite LG's opinion), responses to wam, including table for fruit vendor to use to claim in private
post 38: question to Madge about Mark's non-wolfness
post 39: addresses plytho's concern for fruit vendor claiming in private with basically "never mind"
post 40: cop strategy vis a vis SDK, says he prefers cop to stay hidden and let SDK be lynched
post 41: response to plytho, wam not the one who brought up cop claiming town
post 42: cites Madge post about cop claims, reiterates that it is bad strategy if poorly timed

this bit of byplay is mostly moot since it covers a role we don't have, and the tracker result is ambiguous

post 43: comments on DST snafu Mark had
post 44: some responses, wondering why I was late to the party on the SDK wagon, wants wam to update his reads, "it's quiet in here, too quiet"
post 45: explains fruit table intention to Madge
post 46: update reads, including previously overlooked ones from post 36. fb and Mark still bottom two, plytho and BoomFrog top two. votes Mark
post 47: examines fb softclaim, not likely to be VT, concludes plytho is tunneling, lighter concern about Madge's immediate reaction to a town!SDK flip
post 48: nervous about people not voting, asks BoomFrog about lynching fb
post 49: some responses to plytho re voting, scum pre-game talking and how it might fold in to Mark and SDK
post 50: mod question
post 51: uncomfortable with post by wam on SDK flip, votes me based off fb claim and lack of Mark wagon

D3
post 52: not surprised by flips, refers back to post 33 for who to look at next, also how Mark fits in
post 53: responses to plytho on jailer's (lack of) utility, BoomFrog on voting me opening of D3, pinged by wam
post 54: hybrid theory with plytho of a wam-moody team needs work
post 55: plytho's lack of humor, feeling better about LaserGuy, asks Mark about his reads list
post 56: fluff
post 57: finds point in favor of theory from post 54, disagrees with plytho's interpretation of a certain wam post as townie, wam defensive about his bad reads, points out some very bad tactics by Mark, disagrees with plytho on one point of his read on me
post 58: update reads list, Mark no longer most scummy read, that goes to wam, plytho and BoomFrog top two, votes wam
post 59: OMGUS accusation, along with a couple of points wam missed
post 60: further questions of wam's theory of jimbob-BoomFrog team
post 61: questions mpolo on his reads list


Was very consistent with Mark and fb as his scummiest all through D1 and D2, except right at the end of course. Has since moved on to wam as scummiest, but there is a clear path to see about it (post 33 wagon analysis that was realized by SDK's flip start of D3). Still feel comfortable about him being firmly townie
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby wam » Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:47 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
wam wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
wam wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
wam wrote:Nothing just your normally more analytical and cautious than that.

I did my analysis already at the end of D2.


This is scummy in my mind as it implies boom knew sdk Lignment

Are you completely not paying attention?


What do you mean?
Answer the question. Do you feel you are paying carful attention to the game?


Up to start of d3 yes been a bit busy since.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:07 pm UTC

wam wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
wam wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:I did my analysis already at the end of D2.


This is scummy in my mind as it implies boom knew sdk Lignment
Do you feel you are paying carful attention to the game?


Up to start of d3 yes been a bit busy since.
(Trimmed the tree a little haha)

I analyzed and made a plan at the end of D2 for both contingencies. For scum SDK and for town SDK. So when SDK flipped town I had my plan already and followed it. So there is no implication that I knew SDK's alignment. So I can't understand why you find it scummy that I took action immediately. If you weren't paying attention I could understand but you say you were paying attention to the relevant portion. So help understand your thought process here.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby mpolo » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:12 pm UTC

I really don't like that I have no strong scummy leads. I am inclined to vote for Mark at the moment, but ought to re-read. I'll see how much I can do now…
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby mpolo » Mon Jun 18, 2018 7:31 pm UTC

Mark_Caniglia from Page 10:

Spoiler:
Responds to mod-prod Page 12.

Problems with day begin. Content is coming. Votes SDK without reasoning. Thinks SDK probably not scum from BoomFrog’s reasoning. (Doesn’t unvote, though).

No time to finish reads. BF townie, fb quiet, jimbob townie. Keeps vote. [SDK doesn’t like Mark lynch at this point, but votes b/c deadline]. Going to be even less active. Wants summary of moody wagon. SDK is scummy, and the lynch will give info. Half reads is possible.

Half-reads: BoomFrog town. Freezeblade neutral. Jimbob very townie. LaserGuy not opportunistic. SDK-Madge link? Vote for SDK was because of rolefishing. Liked Boom’s argument that the RF would have been stupid for scum, but this didn’t sway him. Missed FB’s soft claim. Gave up on Madge lynch because it wasn’t going through. Now convince of TvT. Wants more fruit claims. In same post that says there is no wolf/SK, wants Madge to prove that she’s not a wolf/SK by having another fruit claim.

Thought Madge might be lying to hide the setup, but now realizes that Freeze’s flip eliminates wolves.


In isolation this looks even worse than I imagined. Very little content, very flippy on opinions. Seemed to have been convinced that SDK was town at one point, but kept up with the vote. Then said he was only a little convinced, but now is sure BoomFrog is town because of the argument that didn't convince him enough. Fishing for fruit claims, when there is no reason to doubt the vendor's existence. Trying to distract us with wolves/SKs when they are eliminated by the publicly available information.

Certainly, there is a lot of newbie vibe to this. At the same time, it seems really, really scummy.

Early on, we had the RF question about Mark, which had me thinking he might be a town power role. Now I doubt that a lot. Theoretically, he could be the even-night tracker, which probably wouldn't provoke a question on D1 that prevented him from participating. Fruit vendor is near impossible with his content. So the question was either about his scummy power or about his restriction. (He claims the latter.)

Vote: Mark_Caniglia

I have a bit of a gut feeling that BoomFrog could be linked with him, as he is fairly tight on the town read there. Need to reread Boom, though.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby wam » Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:50 pm UTC

@boom.

It was the certainty. It came across like you had the result you expected.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:06 pm UTC

wam wrote:@boom.

It was the certainty. It came across like you had the result you expected.

Alright, fair, it's true, over night I convinced myself that I was 95% sure SDK was town. His post about it being better for him to be lynched then to be the focus D3 again seemed almost certainly to be coming from a townie.

What do you think about Moody? He had been extremely opportunistic in his views and votes.
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Re: Meta Mafia II: Day Three

Postby Madge » Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:27 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:@Madge and Mark: What is your opinion of wam and Moody?

They both seem to be acting normally, especially wam. It’s making it hard for me to come up with a suspicion.

Moody’s logic seems sound

plytho wrote:
Madge wrote:No fruit for me today. I guess the fruit vendor didn’t want to use the fruit list on me :(. That’s OK, I forgive you this time!
Why would you expect the fruit vendor to target the same person twice?


I wouldn’t, I was just being funny.

I think I’m feeling pretty clear on Mark now. If he’s scum he’s doing a wonderful job.

Madge, what do you think of BoomFrog's attempts to lynch freezeblade late in D2?

It made me really uncomfortable, changing targets last minute is always odd. But I think overall it’s probably neutral or slightly townie; I don’t see scum trying to change a target at the last minute, it’d be so risky for them if it went badly. I think depending on freezeblade’s eventual flip, the people who joined the wagon could be trouble.

@Madge - what's your current woof/grr list look like? Any chance of getting a 1-2 sentence explanation on the positioning too?

Firstly: I am simultaneously glad my meta is helping me and annoyed that I stopped roleplaying, but you can’t have everything!

I don’t have time for a woof-grr list today (big exam!) but maybe tomorrow (easy exam): deadline’s 3am local time though so definitely won’t be around for it.

I really don’t like the Mark wagon. I doubt I’ll be participating and I kind of regret starting it :|
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