Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - Endgame - Apocalypse

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Vicarin
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:35 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:So scum has Godfather, Janitor, 1-shot daykill but the roles are too strong for town? Oh and how did plytho get blocked N2?


I actually thought Plytho failed to track N2 because he tried tracking the avatar of the ship's computer, but ok. We were warned about unexpected hidden interactions after all.

The roles for town would make more sense if scum was somewhat loaded with abilities, I don't know if the overall game is balanced obviously.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:02 pm UTC

Feeling a bit better about a Sabrar + wam team though.

I mean, if no-one else thinks that cult is likely, then obviously we should just forge ahead cause I'm not going to convince anyone at this point, but I'm still worried about how everyone seems happy with the lynch order. Hell, I think that we'll probably win with the current lynch order against the most likely scum teams, which just makes me think I'm wrong.

@Plytho: I think you're the only person who hasn't claimed a rolename, you willing to?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:22 pm UTC

So we have 3.5 days by my calculation. Given the 12 hours rule we want to be wrapped upnwith evrything today by 3 days. Given the split locations I think we need to allow 12 hours a lynch to ensure we have enough players for a hammer. So with 4 planned lynches left we need at least 2 days. So we don't have that much time.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:29 pm UTC

@Vic. Why given the plan would waiting to lynch you until the mod response change anything. If the response is negative sabrar laser.must be a team. We will have 3 others still around to lynch them if that occurs. It will also show up when we lynch laser and sabrar miracously survives.
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Vicarin
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:38 pm UTC

wam wrote:@Vic. Why given the plan would waiting to lynch you until the mod response change anything. If the response is negative sabrar laser.must be a team. We will have 3 others still around to lynch them if that occurs. It will also show up when we lynch laser and sabrar miracously survives.


Because there are some (somewhat unlikely) situations in which it does matter, and I'm pretty sure that you'll have enough time to get through all the planned lynches anyway, especially as the number required to hammer keeps dropping. Managed to get through the other lynches today with a pretty small seperation.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:42 pm UTC

N1 chat for fun (hope I haven't messed up who said what). Plus if someone can spot a slip by LaserGuy that's also welcome.
Spoiler:
Sabrar wrote:Hi there. Well, that was interesting...

Any reason why you still can't read me properly? Didn't Crossover teach you that chat partner not being confirmed as Town does not equal with him being scum?

LaserGuy wrote:I wasn't considering the chat one way or the other when I was reading you. Your play looked scummy to me, so that's what I went with. I wasn't going to let them lynch us D1 if I could help it, but I'm not going to hedge my reads in your favor either.

LaserGuy wrote:Oh wow, this night is going to last till Monday.

LaserGuy wrote:How confident are you in this flip?

Sabrar wrote:What flip? This was NL.
You should have considered mechanical implications of T-S Lovers vs T-T Lovers. You even considered multiple Lovers.

With normal Masonry (or even Neighborhood) this would be the time where I post my full reads to have you carry my torch if I die. Given the situation that unfortunately won't happen. Oh well, weekend's going to be busy anyway.

How do you feel about Zen only letting us know about the L-3 thing AFTER he had 4 votes? If I had his 'ability' I would have steadfastly monitored how many votes I have at all times. Guy is so ridiculously uncooperative...

Town is super-weak ability-wise. We definitely need to multi-lynch tomorrow.

LaserGuy wrote:Oh, I had just skimmed that on my phone and thought he was lynched at L-3. Hmm.

I think I probably would have claimed that right away in any case. There's no benefit to Town to ending the day early.

If he's scum with daychat, one of his buddies could have deliberately hammered him. heury, I guess.

LaserGuy wrote:Or Madge if they thought the first one didn't work.

Sabrar wrote:I'm way less sure about scum having day-chat than I was at the beginning. Will need to check previous games by Suzaku but iirc he usually gives night-chat only. Plus it might be why the game is not nightless.

Problem is I can fully imagine town!Zen being used to a different meta and playing this way. Also scum having that ability would be ridiculous.

LaserGuy wrote:I could see it as an indie power. Like a one-shot bulletproof kind of thing.

LaserGuy wrote:Or a mechanic to prevent a loner cult leader from being lynched D1 :

Sabrar wrote:I think there is a decent case to be made for cult!Zen. He protested quite vehemently against their inclusion in the setup, saying that with the lynch-mechanic they might not even get a chance to recruit. As you say his ability could be a guarantee against that.
That would also explain why he did not want to draw attention to himself D1 by revealing his ability.

Sabrar wrote:It took me 25 minutes to reread page 2 alone. That's extremely slow, don't think I'll have time for everything during the weekend. Main take-aways for now:
- liking wam's content,
- if there really is no day-chat then Vicarin can be scum.

Sabrar wrote:Page 3 got me lots of small pings but will need to see some flips before I can interpret them.
One line by PW doesn't feel like coming from him at all.

skipping two posts here which only contain my case on Zen
Sabrar wrote:Page 4 main point:
"I doubt there are more than 3 mafia. Armed with the information learned from the mislynches I can practically guarantee that by end of d2 we can find almost all scum if not all." This is from h_a and I don't think there's anything that would justify his confidence in that statement.

LaserGuy wrote:I think I've talked myself into the idea that Zen is probably indie or cult. It just doesn't make sense for Town to have that role and behave the way that he did. If there's no kill tonight, then I think it's cult. Two kills tonight probably means SK.

If Zen is cult, I expect he will recruit one of bessie, EGW, or me. Outside chance of wam/PW.

I think Vic and PW are both Town based on the last page. Madge and freezeblade are still biggest unknowns for me right now.

Any idea why heury is buddying you? (I still think he's Town)

I'm assuming that if you're okay with me posting your case that you expect we will be claiming D2?

Sabrar wrote:- I doubt Zen would recruit EGW seeing I already tied them together (but then again I could be overestimating my influence on the game as usual)
- I think heury is just trying to have different reads than Zen to distance himself
- I think it's possible we'll have to claim but I hope it doesn't come to that. You could present the case as your own.

Sabrar wrote:Checked two previous games by Suzaku (was long time ago so not necessarily indicative anymore). Secret Santa 2015 was nightless so day-chat, Matrix6 for newbies however was night-chat only.

Sabrar wrote:Page 5 I don't like plytho constantly calling my interaction with h_a 'weird'. Also George's scum-hunting does not seem as genuine as it was in Crossover, he gets side-tracked with irrelevant stuff plus his number-crunching is just a waste of time.

LaserGuy wrote:My gut is that a setup like this really ought to have daychat, since otherwise it would be too difficult for scum to react to successive lynches. OTOH, I don't know that I've ever seen a game where some players have daychat and others have night only, so I dunno.

LaserGuy wrote:I don't think it's a good idea for me to post your case on Zen. You and I have different enough styles of making cases that I don't think people would think it believably came from me... I think it would be more of a distraction than anything else, and you and I are often at fairly similar times anyway so it shouldn't make more than a few hours' difference either way.

May not matter depending on night results. I'm not keen on our odds of surviving the night if there's a killing faction.

LaserGuy wrote:The NL was so bad for us. If Zen is Town he screwed up something awful.

LaserGuy wrote:I agree on EGW and plytho. plytho in particular seems very reserved this game.

LaserGuy wrote:Actually, if Zen is mafia, then Madge/freezeblade are probably both Town. Not so clear if it's a cult game.

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Vicarin
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:54 pm UTC

Oh yeah,

@Sabrar+LaserGuy: did you both know each other's rolenames from the start?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:57 pm UTC

Yes.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:34 pm UTC

No slips I found. One point on the daychat/night chat. It used to be common for masons to have day chat and scum to have night chat. But not sure if that has any relevance to this game.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:35 pm UTC

Vicarin wrote:Oh yeah,

@Sabrar+LaserGuy: did you both know each other's rolenames from the start?


Yeah every time I have played as a lover that I can remeber your told your partners role name.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Vicarin » Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:45 pm UTC

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Unvote
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Suzaku » Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:29 pm UTC

I'm here - catching up with what needs to be done.

Massive props to Zenii at this point.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Suzaku » Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:41 pm UTC


Current votals:

Vicarin - 2 (Sabrar, wam)
Madge - 1 (Vicarin)

Not Voting: LaserGuy, Madge, plytho, somitomi

With seven alive, 4 votes are required for execution.

New deadline is 11:00 on 2018/3/17 JST (=2018/3/17 02:00 UTC)
Note that a lynch within 12 hours of deadline (i.e. after 3/16 14:00 UTC) now ends the day automatically.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Suzaku » Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:46 pm UTC

Would the presence of lovers in this game contradict the first rule in the FAQ due to more people dying to a lynch than expected, possibly messing up the number required for the next lynch, or would the 2nd of the theoretical lovers not die until publically announced by the mod?

No comment
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:07 pm UTC

Vote: Vicarin

Really hoping this is going to be the last one, because I have no scumreads beyond this point :?

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:10 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Vote: Vicarin

Really hoping this is going to be the last one, because I have no scumreads beyond this point :?
what do you mean, the last one?
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:12 pm UTC

The last lynch before the end of the game.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:18 pm UTC

Seems to have gone a bit quiet. Vic now you have your answer any last comments.

So thinking about the plan. This is based on post Vic lynch, where he's town or Indy (sorry). I have also assumed the lovers is a true claim as I can't see a situation where I make a sense as both scum so at least 1 must be town and therefore the claim is honest. I have also assumed if both lovers are town scum won't be able to pass up the chance for a double nk. But obviously There is a lot of wine here.

So we have 6 players left. If there are 2 scum in the 6 we go into d4 at either 3-2 (1) or 2-2 (2).

If we lynch 1 more we have 5 players. So with 2 scum left we lose d4. If we have 1 scum we go into d4 with 3-1(1) or 2-1 (2).

If we lynch 2 players post Vic we end up with 4 left. If there are 2 scum they win there and then. We go into day 4. 2-1 (1) or 1-1 (2).

(1) is 1 scum 1 town in the lovers
(2) is 2 town in the lovers.

So based on the above I am torn about whether we keep.going with the plan and keep lynching or stop. I think the best plan maybe to lynch the lovers next and see what happens. Wosrt case then we will be at 3-1 can end the day and get flips to feed the reads. Thoughts ?
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:22 pm UTC

wam wrote:I think the best plan maybe to lynch the lovers next and see what happens.
Actually agree with this. Don't have any other scum-reads atm.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:39 pm UTC

Wam, how do you get to 3-1 worst case?
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:44 pm UTC

I think worst case is that we still have two scum left, neither of whom are me/Sabrar. In this scenario, we need to lynch at least one scum before we end the day today or we lose outright.

If we have one scum left or there is one scum among me/Sabrar, then lynching us will hopefully simplify the game but still ensure that Town survives to D4.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:54 pm UTC

I think lynching us today after Vic is probably the best option. If Sabrar and I survive to D4, Town is pretty much forced to lynch us anyway, so you may as well do it now to get the flip info.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:59 pm UTC

I can't count. So 7 alive we lynch 3 more and end up with 4 players. Now basically if there are two scum in Madge plytho somi was were doomed anyway. So worst case is 2-1 d4. I have assumed 1 nk.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:05 pm UTC

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Or I guess we could just quick lynch everyone except for plytho/wam and hope they're both Town

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:06 pm UTC

wam wrote:I can't count. So 7 alive we lynch 3 more and end up with 4 players. Now basically if there are two scum in Madge plytho somi was were doomed anyway. So worst case is 2-1 d4. I have assumed 1 nk.
That's not entirely true. If madge and somitomi are scum the lynch plan beats them.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:07 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
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Or I guess we could just quick lynch everyone except for plytho/wam and hope they're both Town
That's the original lynch plan. I think I'm actually fine with that at this point.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:08 pm UTC

Vote: Vicarin
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:09 pm UTC

That's hammer.

Vote: Madge

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:09 pm UTC

Vote: Madge
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:17 pm UTC

Oh well.

Vote: Madge

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:29 pm UTC

vote madge sorry xboxing
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:35 pm UTC

So that's hammer.

Vote: LaserGuy

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:37 pm UTC

vote: LaserGuy
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:38 pm UTC

Vote: LaserGuy

Hammer

If one of wam/plytho are scum, you played a great game.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby Sabrar » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:38 pm UTC

Goodbye cruel world.

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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:40 pm UTC

Vote: somitomi
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:49 pm UTC

vote somitomi

Might as well f8nish the set.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby plytho » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:52 pm UTC

Now I guess we wait for the mod?
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:53 pm UTC

Yep and based off newbie suzaku won't be up for an hour or 2.
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Re: Stellaris Mafia (Lights Out) - D3 - Assessments

Postby wam » Tue Mar 13, 2018 8:59 pm UTC

Does anyone know zens time zone?
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