Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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cemper93
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby cemper93 » Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:14 am UTC

Eh, personal?

Unvote

Whatever.

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LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:14 am UTC

I don't understand why you'd claim with one vote and two days left to play.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:15 am UTC

Cool. Thank you for being punctual Madge.

Vote Madge

@Sabrar: So many things make sense. Sorry I didn't consider this possibility, I was so sure Madge was watcher.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:16 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I don't understand why you'd claim with one vote and two days left to play.


Oh cool, and LaserGuy is her buddy.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:22 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:I don't understand why you'd claim with one vote and two days left to play.


Oh cool, and LaserGuy is her buddy.

To actually answer your question. It's because I was basing my play and suspicion of Sabrar on the idea that Madge was watcher and Sabrar should know it. She is only excited to play on D1 when she is a PR. She spent a lot of time thinking about watcher strategy D1 and only started considering doctor strategy on D2.

In fact Sabrar did see what I saw but knew extra secret information. That was why we had the disconnect.

Side note, I thought your trust of Madge was based on the same understanding. But clearly now that is not true.
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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:24 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:This is such bad logic, I really don't like it, because as has been discussed at length, scum claiming PR is not a great move at all. Falsely counter-claiming PR guarantees their lynch either that day or the next, whereas, as happened in the end, claiming VT can lead to not being lynched at all.
As has been discussed at length and constantly ignored, COMMITTING YOURSELF TO A VT CLAIM HALF A DAY BEFORE DEADLINE is not a good tactic.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I also don't like his inconsistency on when people should and should not update their reads. In one post, he's upset with bessie for not updating her reads following the new information, but soon thereafter, he's upset with me for doing exactly that, claiming that new evidence on PW was not relevant.
You're hilarious. If the new info is not relevant, obviously it should not affect the read. These are completely different circumstances.

This has been basically ignored.
@jimbob: why were you so focused solely on the VT claim and did not consider the timing at all? Also why do you not understand the difference in the circumstances in the second quote?
@cemper: same question. This was a huge misrepresentation of what I said. Evidently this 'read' will not be used in the future as it's been made public. However it does not invalidate its applicability to flicky and can and should be used to avoid the mislynch.

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:33 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I don't understand why you'd claim with one vote and two days left to play.
Sabrar wrote:Whatever, I'm tired of this.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:55 am UTC

Madge wrote:Doctor can post it for beer.
Doctor and Watcher fulfill the same role in this game, if those are the only undisclosed PR-s there is no need for beer.

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Madge
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Madge » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:05 am UTC

?? maybe we're misunderstanding beer so here's what i meant:

Doctor!Madge may have made that post to make scum think she wasn't doctor so she wouldn't be killed.

Doc and Watcher are different: while they both benefit from targeting the NK target, doc gives us a townie and watcher gives us scum.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:10 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Normally when Town!Sabrar cases somebody, I pretty much expect them to death tunnel for the remainder of the game

I would not expect Town!Sabrar to let me get away with not responding to this, for example.
Except for the new and improved Sabrar who has had shitty reads in most of his recent games as Town.

LaserGuy wrote:Pretty much the entirety of Sabrar's play this game feels like Crossover!Sabrar (also bin chicken!Sabrar).
You need to explain this in detail. Which part is similar to what?

LaserGuy wrote:Sabrar's D1 vote on Madge is completely unsupported.
Total and absolute LIE.
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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:11 am UTC

Doc and Watcher are the same from scum's pov which is what counts when scum determines who to NK.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:26 am UTC

@all: if we lynch scum today we have 50% chance to clear/confirm someone. somitomi tracks the suspected player, I watch somitomi. Doctor should target me to discourage scum and then we can repeat it the next night if necessary.
IF we are confident that we're lynching scum.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:49 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote: You're are correct. I worded it weirdly.
Noted.

I am not the watcher.

BoomFrog wrote: She is only excited to play on D1 when she is a PR.
Not true. She is only excited to play on D1 when she is not vanilla town.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:08 am UTC

Time means this will be brief, but I am not the watcher. Sabrar, I'll try to post a more full answer to your questions later (I was out all yesterday, and needed to go to bed almost as soon as I got home, but had just enough time to catch up, so thought I'd post that quick question to BF). In answer to the timing bit, that's easy: I don't think it's relevant. There was 12 hours left in the day, with most players having time to see and respond to the post. Scum cannot predict how townies will react to a vanilla claim, as evidenced by your charge (which I'm now sure was genuine, but could have come from someone else if you hadn't done it), my buying flicky's tone etc. There was enough chance for reactions, therefore there was a chance scum!flicky would live, meaning a PR claim was not necessarily the right move.

More later today.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Suzaku » Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:49 pm UTC

Current Votals:

bessie - 1 (LaserGuy)
Madge - 2 (jimbobmacdoodle, BoomFrog)
LaserGuy - 1 (bessie)

Not voting: Hari Seldon, Madge, Sabrar, flicky1991, somitomi, cemper93

With 10 alive hammer requires 6 votes. Tied votals will result in no lynch.
Deadline in just over 2 days.

Note that posting and voting may continue after the deadline until a mod calls night (or there’s a hammer vote).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:34 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: She is only excited to play on D1 when she is a PR.
Not true. She is only excited to play on D1 when she is not vanilla town.
Right, exactly. I think I implied the alternative is she is excited to play scum when I voted her.

Why are you not voting her? She's been on your short list for a while and her one defender has just flipped his opinion of her. Are you more confident on LaserGuy?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby somitomi » Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:59 pm UTC

bessie wrote:somitomi, you’re the closest to confirmed town, so your content is very important. Post whatever you’re thinking. You don’t have to organize it, you don’t have to worry about making a slip and being scum read for it, and it’s OK to be wrong.

Yes, I was aware of that and (with the exam thing finally over) I'll read through D2 to get back on track.

No counterclaims here (duh) and I think everyone has posted since the claim, so Sabrar is as much confirmed as I am.
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LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:14 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Oh cool, and LaserGuy is her buddy.


I don't fault you for believing this, but regrettably I'm not.

BoomFrog wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:I don't understand why you'd claim with one vote and two days left to play.


Oh cool, and LaserGuy is her buddy.

To actually answer your question. It's because I was basing my play and suspicion of Sabrar on the idea that Madge was watcher and Sabrar should know it. She is only excited to play on D1 when she is a PR. She spent a lot of time thinking about watcher strategy D1 and only started considering doctor strategy on D2.

In fact Sabrar did see what I saw but knew extra secret information. That was why we had the disconnect.

Side note, I thought your trust of Madge was based on the same understanding. But clearly now that is not true.


No, I thought Madge's claim was likely true because she was so keen on No Lynching. I also expected scum would claim VT and fight the lynch rather than claim a PR and give up. I hadn't really given much thought to which PR she was actually claiming.

Anyway, I see the logic so I'm fine looking for a claim here.

Vote: Madge

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby bessie » Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:47 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: She is only excited to play on D1 when she is a PR.
Not true. She is only excited to play on D1 when she is not vanilla town.
Right, exactly. I think I implied the alternative is she is excited to play scum when I voted her.
No, your choice of wording was too deliberate. It’s something you have been implicitly pushing for a long time, that Madge is only excited to play when she is PR. You never wanted to throw the alternative out there as an option, never wanted that possibility in the back of people’s minds.

BoomFrog wrote:Why are you not voting her? She's been on your short list for a while and her one defender has just flipped his opinion of her. Are you more confident on LaserGuy?
Hmm, LaserGuy was your pick as Madge’s only plausible scum buddy few hours ago. I guess you need to rethink your tactics following Sabrar’s claim.
BoomFrog wrote: That leaves you and LaserGuy, but I don't think you two are buddies. Which leaves Sabrar as the most likely to be scum from outside the pool. Unless I'm just totally wrong about Madge. But only LaserGuy is plausibly buddies with Madge. So Sabrar or LaserGuy seems most likely, with you as third choice.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:01 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Pretty much the entirety of Sabrar's play this game feels like Crossover!Sabrar (also bin chicken!Sabrar).


You need to explain this in detail. Which part is similar to what?


This is my meta on you from Crossover (plytho chat, post 313). One of the only good reads I had that game, though I was pretty vexed that I never followed up on this.
Evil George Washington wrote:I don't know how Sabrar is usually specifically though. Can you go into his playstyle and what you note of his play that is different here?

LaserGuy wrote:I will try. This may be a bit disorganized as I'm not very good at explaining meta reads.

Sabrar is a very logical person. He likes to build logically coherent arguments for everything he does, and prides himself on being logically consistent as either alignment, though, not, I suppose, at the cost of the game, but I don't know if Sabrar would try to present an argument that he believed was logically incorrect even as scum, simply because he would assume that everyone else would also recognize it as such. Given the choice, he enjoys trying to solve the endgame perfectly using powers to mechanically clear every player. See, eg. here:
viewtopic.php?p=4228489#p4228489.

Sabrar tends to be quite aggressive. He asks a lot of questions, and applies pressure, and is very active. He generally has the highest post count by a large margin, and often takes on the role of "town leader", such as it is around here--because play under plurality lynch, Town doesn't need to be quite so organized as I imagine you guys need to be. This is, IMHO, where people are making the connection between the two of you.

He is persistent... he often tunnels hard and will rarely back down. I think Shakespeare mafia (viewtopic.php?f=53&t=122748) really showcases a lot of what I see in his play, especially townie play. He isn't always quite as forward as in Shakespeare, but it's usually in that range, unless he comes under fire early (see here: viewtopic.php?p=4226326#p4226326), since he is quite bad and uncomfortable at defending himself (especially as Town).

This game, I don't see the same level of intensity out of him as I would normally expect. Now, this could be due to size/speed of the thread, number of players, IRL reasons, but it is there. It's not due to his role. In the Shakespeare game I noted above, he was a cop, and was definitely willing to get his hands dirty anyway. He has been mostly sheeping you as far as his voting is concerned, and aside from his tunnel on Zen which felt okay to me in D3, and I guess his IMHO over-the-top defense of Madge, I haven't really felt his presence this game (and even there, I think others, eg. plytho, were pushing Zen harder than Sabrar was). I think that's what was really been bothering me most about Sabrar... I think in every game I've played with him, regardless of alignment, his content has been memorable to me. In this game, I feel like he's coasting. Nothing he's done has really stood out to me.


I feel I could probably post this read almost verbatim this game and it would fit your play well enough. I hadn't considered that you might be test-driving a new meta.

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Sabrar's D1 vote on Madge is completely unsupported.
Total and absolute LIE.
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:|
I'm going to chalk this up to me not understanding your meta this game at all and leave it at that.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:25 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:I'm going to chalk this up to me not understanding your meta this game at all and leave it at that.
This feels like a cop-out to me. Saying that my vote is 'completely unsupported' implies that I have no reason, no progression. I had my reasons, I even argued about what they imply with bessie and later with jimbob. It is one thing that you do not consider those reasons good enough, but to say I had no reason at all is misrepresenting the situation.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:38 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:I'm going to chalk this up to me not understanding your meta this game at all and leave it at that.
This feels like a cop-out to me. Saying that my vote is 'completely unsupported' implies that I have no reason, no progression. I had my reasons, I even argued about what they imply with bessie and later with jimbob. It is one thing that you do not consider those reasons good enough, but to say I had no reason at all is misrepresenting the situation.


Okay, here's a bit more detail on those posts then:
1) is an associative read. It says nothing about moody independent of PW beyond that his content is low
2) is provided without context, is admittedly tentative, and is definitely out-of-date by the time you voted Madge
3) is not a read
4) is fine
5) nothing here is obviously you scumreading Madge rather than just disagreeing with her on theory

There's not much here that looks much like a scum case to me, hence my comment about your read being unsupported.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:39 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:
bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: She is only excited to play on D1 when she is a PR.
Not true. She is only excited to play on D1 when she is not vanilla town.
Right, exactly. I think I implied the alternative is she is excited to play scum when I voted her.
No, your choice of wording was too deliberate. It’s something you have been implicitly pushing for a long time, that Madge is only excited to play when she is PR. You never wanted to throw the alternative out there as an option, never wanted that possibility in the back of people’s minds.
Let's discuss this more after Madge claims.

@Madge: You should claim. The wagon is rolling.

Bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Why are you not voting her? She's been on your short list for a while and her one defender has just flipped his opinion of her. Are you more confident on LaserGuy?
Hmm, LaserGuy was your pick as Madge’s only plausible scum buddy few hours ago. I guess you need to rethink your tactics following Sabrar’s claim.
BoomFrog wrote: That leaves you and LaserGuy, but I don't think you two are buddies. Which leaves Sabrar as the most likely to be scum from outside the pool. Unless I'm just totally wrong about Madge. But only LaserGuy is plausibly buddies with Madge. So Sabrar or LaserGuy seems most likely, with you as third choice.
Yes, that is an interesting reason why I should be voting LaserGuy instead of Madge. But why are you voting for LaserGuy?
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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:12 pm UTC

@LaserGuy: ok. I think you're downplaying my content (either deliberately or not) and don't take context into account (e.g. 3 is the explanation for 1, which is further explained later and debated multiple times) but I don't feel like we're getting anywhere.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:16 pm UTC

I don't think I understand what forced Sabrar to claim...
any pronouns
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:28 pm UTC

I wasn't forced. I felt like it.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby flicky1991 » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:32 pm UTC

Fair enough.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:20 pm UTC

Let's help Madge claim.

Vote: Madge

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:38 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Let's help Madge claim.

Vote: Madge
I believe that's L-2.

I'm just on my way home now, and will try to get a big post in once back. Does anybody have anything they'd like me to address in particular?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:37 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I also don't like his inconsistency on when people should and should not update their reads. In one post, he's upset with bessie for not updating her reads following the new information, but soon thereafter, he's upset with me for doing exactly that, claiming that new evidence on PW was not relevant.
You're hilarious. If the new info is not relevant, obviously it should not affect the read. These are completely different circumstances.

This has been basically ignored.
@jimbob: why were you so focused solely on the VT claim and did not consider the timing at all? Also why do you not understand the difference in the circumstances in the second quote?[/quote]I don't feel the need to expand on my answer to the first question from earlier in the day, so just responding to the second here. I'm not entirely sure I entirely follow what you're asking in this latest question, but I'll see if I can answer it anyway.

You [url]=http://fora.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4294827#p4294827found me suspicious[/url] for backtracking on moody. I responded that it was based on new evidence, namely PW's flip, affecting that read. You said that the flip had less relevance, because it was a read of moody. I explained how PW's flip was relevant to my moody read, explaining that my read on moody was based on a town!PW assumption. Meanwhile, here, you call out bessie for not updating her reads based on the new information (the only new information being PW's flip and wagonomics that led to that flip). So, the only way I can see that you are being consistent here is if you disagree with my explanation as to why PW's flip affected my read of moody (and at the time I made the quoted comment, I don't believe you had responded to my explanation). Assuming you don't disagree with it, please explain how the two cases are different.

Will try to look to see if LaserGuy and Madge could be scum buddies, because if they're not, I'm starting to run out of ideas for who could be a scum team.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:42 pm UTC

EBWOP: Fix quote and URL tags.
Sabrar wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I also don't like his inconsistency on when people should and should not update their reads. In one post, he's upset with bessie for not updating her reads following the new information, but soon thereafter, he's upset with me for doing exactly that, claiming that new evidence on PW was not relevant.
You're hilarious. If the new info is not relevant, obviously it should not affect the read. These are completely different circumstances.

This has been basically ignored.
@jimbob: why were you so focused solely on the VT claim and did not consider the timing at all? Also why do you not understand the difference in the circumstances in the second quote?
I don't feel the need to expand on my answer to the first question from earlier in the day, so just responding to the second here. I'm not entirely sure I entirely follow what you're asking in this latest question, but I'll see if I can answer it anyway.

You found me suspicious for backtracking on moody. I responded that it was based on new evidence, namely PW's flip, affecting that read. You said that the flip had less relevance, because it was a read of moody. I explained how PW's flip was relevant to my moody read, explaining that my read on moody was based on a town!PW assumption. Meanwhile, here, you call out bessie for not updating her reads based on the new information (the only new information being PW's flip and wagonomics that led to that flip). So, the only way I can see that you are being consistent here is if you disagree with my explanation as to why PW's flip affected my read of moody (and at the time I made the quoted comment, I don't believe you had responded to my explanation). Assuming you don't disagree with it, please explain how the two cases are different.

Will try to look to see if LaserGuy and Madge could be scum buddies, because if they're not, I'm starting to run out of ideas for who could be a scum team.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:11 pm UTC

@jimbob: I guess we have different perspectives. As we discussed with bessie that quote is probably alignment-indicative of moody regardless of PW's alignment. Therefore it's a read on moody only, independent of PW. So I do not consider PW's flip as new info in this case.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:24 pm UTC

I think we should lynch LaserGuy and Madge claim toMorrow. If Laser is Scum, then we are set. If Laser is Town, then we will have had another Night without scum knowing who the Doc is. On the other hand, if Madge is Doc CCed, it would be more favorable to use Sabrar's tracker plan. I will work this out, actually:

Madge is Scum

No Claim:

Laser Scum, Game set toMorrow.
Laser Town, Extra Doc Night. Did not use Sabrar's Tracker Plan.

Claim (and lynched):
Laser Scum, Laser Tracked. Game set.
Laser Town, Laser Tracked. Laser Cleared. Scum chooses to target either Doc or Laser.


Madge is Town

No Claim:

Laser Scum, Extra Doc Night. Did not use Sabrar's plan.
Laser Town, Extra Doc Night. Did not use Sabrar's plan.

Claim (and not lynched):

Laser Scum, Laser Lynched.
Laser Town, Laser Lynched. Doc outted.

Green = best outcome given the circumstance +1
Yellow = equally favorable/unfavorable compared to the alternative +0
Orange = worst outcome given the circumstance -1

Madge Claims: +1
Madge Does Not Claim: +2

So yes, the expected outcome of Madge not claiming is a little bit better, although both scenarios have positive expected values. However, if Madge is Doc, claims, and we lynch Town (I used Laser as the alternate lynch because he is the current runner up contender, but you can replace him with anyone else), then we would have went down the worst path. There is one more thing about this as well, but it will be better if I keep it unvoiced.

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:34 pm UTC

@Hari Seldon: could you please use a less brighter color? It really hurts my eyes.

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cemper93
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby cemper93 » Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:42 pm UTC

@cemper: same question. This was a huge misrepresentation of what I said. Evidently this 'read' will not be used in the future as it's been made public. However it does not invalidate its applicability to flicky and can and should be used to avoid the mislynch.
I guess the "same question" here is "why did you not think that flicky's VT claim makes him townie"?

Basically, because your logic was as wrong then as it is now. Scum!flicky knows that after a VT claim some townie would raise the point that it was optimal scum strategy to always claim a PR. Therefore, he claims VT instead. This is WIFOM. Timing doesn't come into this. It's not necessary for something to be pronounced for it to be true.

If I didn't understand your question, please give me a detailed response that clearly states what part of my argument you disagree with, and, more importantly, what your argument is. We've been arguing about this forever, and I'm very confident you're wrong. I took your insistence that you're not as indication that you are scum, but since you're not, I'll reconsider this once more.

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Hari Seldon
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Hari Seldon » Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:49 pm UTC

Purple Version?
Spoiler:
I think we should lynch LaserGuy and Madge claim toMorrow. If Laser is Scum, then we are set. If Laser is Town, then we will have had another Night without scum knowing who the Doc is. On the other hand, if Madge is Doc CCed, it would be more favorable to use Sabrar's tracker plan. I will work this out, actually:

Madge is Scum

No Claim:

Laser Scum, Game set toMorrow.
Laser Town, Extra Doc Night. Did not use Sabrar's Tracker Plan.

Claim (and lynched):
Laser Scum, Laser Tracked. Game set.
Laser Town, Laser Tracked. Laser Cleared. Scum chooses to target either Doc or Laser.


Madge is Town

No Claim:

Laser Scum, Extra Doc Night. Did not use Sabrar's plan.
Laser Town, Extra Doc Night. Did not use Sabrar's plan.

Claim (and not lynched):

Laser Scum, Laser Lynched.
Laser Town, Laser Lynched. Doc outted.

Green = best outcome given the circumstance +1
Purple = equally favorable/unfavorable compared to the alternative +0
Orange = worst outcome given the circumstance -1

Madge Claims: +1
Madge Does Not Claim: +2

So yes, the expected outcome of Madge not claiming is a little bit better, although both scenarios have positive expected values. However, if Madge is Doc, claims, and we lynch Town (I used Laser as the alternate lynch because he is the current runner up contender, but you can replace him with anyone else), then we would have went down the worst path. There is one more thing about this as well, but it will be better if I keep it unvoiced.

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:51 pm UTC

cemper93 wrote:Scum!flicky knows that after a VT claim some townie would raise the point that it was optimal scum strategy to always claim a PR.
This is what i don't agree with. There is no guarantee that it will happen and there is no guarantee that the townie would be as forceful about it as I was. It has much more risk in it than a quasi-last minute claim where scum!flicky might even hope that the real PR is already asleep (especially if PW truly found a breadcrumb from Vicarin).

@Hari Seldon: much better, thanks.

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jimbobmacdoodle
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:52 pm UTC

LaserGuy and Madge team analysis:
Spoiler:
Posts by LaserGuy about Madge/moody:
No initial opinion on moody, when expressing opinions on Vic, flicky, PW and BF.
Still no comment on moody when adding town lean to bessie, and scum lean to HS.
Asks flicky why he's responding to random posts (highlighting one where he commented on moody's commentary on LG's plan).
Has moody as one of three possible options for 4th scummiest. Doesn't feel he's posted anything strongly alignment indicative.
Thanks Madge for replacing.
No longer has Madge/moody on list.
Dislikes flicky's statement that he will consider changing to Madge if there's a tie near deadline.
Asks flicky what his read of Madge is and why he think she's mafia.
Asks flicky about his read on Madge from earlier.
<this discussion continues over several posts>
Asks flicky how he decided Madge was scummier than somitomi and Hari. Subsequently votes flicky for "not having solid reads and not trying to develop any".
Brings up moody's ambivalent read of him as one factor contributing to him thinking himself to be lynch bait.
Least confident of Sabrar being town of those on both Madge and somitomi wagons.
Day 2, analysing wagons finds Madge looking pretty bad. Bring's up PW's read of Madge/moody being suspicious, and votes Madge.
States that Madge is his preferred scum pick.
Revises bottom 4 to have bessie ahead of Madge, and unvotes Madge (but doesn't vote bessie).
Makes a joke about Madge's wine-filled post.
Asks bessie why she thinks PW would not have spoken to scum!moody about concerns. Finds moody's defense of PW unchracteristic of scum!moody. Thinks this is town!moody/Madge.
Discussion with bessie over her assoicative read of PW and Madge/somitomi. Asks her what she thinks about his comments on moody.
Thinks Madge was not in any real danger approaching the deadline.
In his reads post he has no strong scum case for her. Thinks Madge's D1 claim is coming from town. Found D1 push on her baffling. Thinks scum would not defend PW. Does not have her in any plausible scum team.
Madge/moody was not one of those he got any information on in reference to his lack of explanation opinion-statements.
Thinks those not voting should soon.
Hadn't given much thought to which PR Madge was claiming. Thinks a claim from her would be good, and votes for her.

moody posts referencing LaserGuy:
Votes LG for No Lynch comments (possibly a joke).
Explains concerns with LG's plan, due to necessity of PR claiming.
Unvotes LG (presumably because it was a joke).
Subsequent posts by LG make him look more townie.

Madge posts referencing LaserGuy:
Likes the idea of co-ordinating night actions to verify someone (one version of LG's plan). Happy to No Lynch, if there's consensus, but backs away from the idea as she reads further, offers LG to not drop it.
Mentions LG's D1 lynch stats as not helping her D1 confidence.
D2, has LG as neutral.
Struggling to read LaserGuy, and has been all game (along with others).
@LaserGuy, why did you wait until D2 to express your suspicions of PW's moody/Madge read?

LaserGuy has voted Madge on a couple of occasions Day 2, but barely even mentioned moody or Madge D1, aside from when discussing people's responses to her, which for the most part sounded like defending her. The votes meanwhile have been pretty weak. His first today was dropped after doing a reread, with not much evidence put behind his reason for dropping it. His second (and current) vote on her seems to be more about getting her to claim, and barely seems like he's planning on leaving it there, if he gets half a moment to withdraw it, based on how I read his explanation at the time of voting. Meanwhile, Madge's comments on LaserGuy boil down to "I don't know", whilst moody was reading him townie later on.

I accept that without a flip from either of them, these points are fairly circumstantial. However, I think there's certainly nothing that rules them out as being a team. I get a townier vibe from LaserGuy overall, and think it likelier that Madge is PW buddy than LaserGuy (assuming only one of them is scum). Therefore, I am happy with my vote on Madge, as things stand.

Ninja'ed by a few people, but I need to go to bed, so I'm going to have to leave any responses until the morning (and hope I get enough time to make them during the day!).
BlitzGirl the Primordial
matthewglen wrote:Cueball looks concerned.

Image

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:04 pm UTC

@Hari Seldon: we won't know if we lynched correctly until the beginning of D3. You cannot use "if we lynch town we won't use the plan" as an argument.

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LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:10 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@LaserGuy, why did you wait until D2 to express your suspicions of PW's moody/Madge read?


I didn't know PW was scum in D1. His fawning read of her could have just been PW being PW, but it looks bad in retrospect knowing his alignment.


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