Newbie New Year Mafia - D5

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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D1

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:07 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Well, I hadn't actually done the math on the 73% until today. When I made that post D1 I think was estimating people start at like 65%.
65% seems way too low, that means 1/3 is scum. Don't see how you could have started from there...

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LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:14 pm UTC

Updated wagons:
Spoiler:
This is the Madge wagon just before her claim
LaserGuy - 1 (flicky1991)
somitomi - 1 (bessie)
flicky1991 - 1 (cemper93)
Madge - 4 (Sabrar, somitomi, BoomFrog, Vicarin)
No Lynch - 2 (Hari Seldon, Madge)
Peaceful Whale - 1 (LaserGuy)
Hari Seldon - 1 (jimbobmacdoodle)

Not voting: Peaceful Whale


This is the wagon just before PW's final post, after flicky's claim
Madge - 2 (Sabrar, Vicarin)
flicky1991 - 4 (cemper93, BoomFrog, LaserGuy, Madge)
Hari Seldon - 1 (jimbobmacdoodle)
Peaceful Whale - 1 (flicky1991)
LaserGuy - 1 (Hari Seldon)

Not voting: Peaceful Whale, somitomi


This the wagon just before somitomi's claim
LaserGuy - 1 (Hari Seldon)
somitomi - 4 (bessie, Madge, Sabrar, Vicarin)
flicky1991 - 3 (cemper93, BoomFrog, LaserGuy)
Peaceful Whale - 1 (flicky)
Hari Seldon - 1 (jimbobmacdoodle)

Not voting: Peaceful Whale, somitomi, bessie


This is the final wagon on flicky
somitomi - 2 (bessie, Sabrar)
flicky1991 - 5 (cemper93, BoomFrog, LaserGuy, Vicarin, Madge)
Hari Seldon - 1 (jimbobmacdoodle)
Peaceful Whale - 1 (flicky1991)
LaserGuy - 1 (Hari Seldon)

Not voting: Peaceful Whale, somitomi


This is the final D1 wagon
flicky1991 - 4 (cemper93, LaserGuy, Madge, Vicarin)
Peaceful Whale - 5 (flicky1991, BoomFrog, Hari Seldon, Sabrar, somitomi)
Madge - 1 (bessie)
cemper93 - 1 (jimbobmacdoodle, )

Not voting: Peaceful Whale, ,


This is the final D2 wagon
Madge - 4 (jimbobmacdoodle, BoomFrog, LaserGuy, Sabrar)
BoomFrog - 1 (bessie, Madge)
flicky1991 - 1 (cemper93)

Not voting: Hari Seldon, flicky1991, somitomi


Assumption: If flicky is not scum, it is likely that scum planned to lynch flicky at the end of D1. PW's last post here had flicky at 4 votes, already claimed VT, with no other viable wagons in sight, yet PW did not vote even though he had expressed a desire to lynch flicky. PW not placing a vote at this stage likely means that scum were fairly confident in lynching flicky and he felt that adding his vote to flicky's total was more likely to look opportunistic than leaving it off.

Suppose flicky is scum:
Spoiler:
1) flicky is essentially passive scum. He doesn't interact with any of the main wagons, except that he busses PW early when there's little threat of PW being lynched and his vote is parked there until day's end. He does express an interest in lynching Madge, and this post stands out as weird as expressing a desire to lynch Madge immediately post-claim. The timing to flicky's PW vote is interesting though, since it's a fairly low-value vote; the natural counterwagons to Madge and somitomi and flicky himself, but flicky does not move defensively to protect himself. I feel this implies flicky probably has a strong buddy on the somitomi wagon who scum feels confident is going to carry the vote with flicky and PW holding their votes in reserve (i.e. bessie); on the other hand, this move is riskier since there was no guarantee that somitomi wouldn't be a PR, leaving a flicky/bessie/PW team without any real options to lynch D1. flicky is very unlikely to be buddies with Hari/jimbob who are making no effort to prevent his lynch.
2) I think it's unlikely PW is mafia with flicky. Scum!PW probably would have voted in his final post if flicky was mafia.


Suppose cemper is scum:
Spoiler:
3) cemper's votes don't really lend themselves particularly well to analysis, since he pretty much just parks on flicky for the entire game. flicky is Town if cemper is scum, and cemper is Town if flicky is scum. cemper is again fairly passive scum. Following up on 2), scum was secure enough in the flicky lynch that PW did not feel the need to vote before deadline. I think this makes Boom/cemper an unlikely team as BoomFrog would probably not have swung the lynch away from scum's preferred target to a last minute lynch of PW, leaving cemper vulnerable D2. Ditto for Hari/cemper. This limits cemper's buddies to bessie/jimbob. I can see a case for either.


Suppose BoomFrog is scum:
Spoiler:
4) BoomFrog is probably the most active wagoner of any player, being on every major wagon in the game except the somitomi wagon (though somi was also in his lynch pool). As noted above, I don't feel that BoomFrog is likely buddies with cemper. BoomFrog jumping from Madge to flicky is similarly unlikely. He could have plausibly voted somitomi based on his bottom five and this makes more sense than going after a buddy who isn't really in any danger at this stage.
5) On the other hand, voting flicky makes more sense for a Boom/jim scum team. Here Boom ends up on the preferred scum wagon (flicky) with buddies safely on unproductive counterwagons. When called out, Boom tries to swing the lynch, but with the limited time and wagonomics of the situation being such that collecting enough votes for PW would be unlikely. Note that this makes Boom/Hari fairly unlikely, as both jumping on their buddy's wagon would greatly increase the chance of the lynch going through. Boom and jimbob both expressed an interest in avoiding No Lynch and both were present at end of day, so plausibly they were gambiting on a failed counterwagon on PW, and this plan was derailed when somitomi voted PW 5 minutes before deadline, since jimbob could not realistically bring himself to force a No Lynch. The same gambit is available in principle to Boom/bessie, except that bessie says she wasn't available at deadline (and I believe her), so this is much riskier, and I feel that it's more likely BoomFrog would have just stuck with flicky and taken the scum points himself rather than transferring them to bessie. I also do not believe that bessie would be so aggressively distancing herself from both of her buddies... Boom/jim were both early on the Madge wagon D2, and have both jumped on me D3. I think jimbob is the most plausible buddy for Boom at this point.


Suppose jimbob is scum:
Spoiler:
6) From 1), jimbob is unlikely to be buddies with flicky, but is plausible buddies with cemper/BoomFrog from 3) and 5). jim/Hari feels too passive to me... they essentially avoid every wagon except for Hari bussing PW and jimbob going after Madge. If the RNG is so cruel as to give us jim/bessie again, we again have a fairly passive team D1, except for bessie pushing somitomi. I feel like jimbob probably would have found an excuse to vote flicky since he was around for the lynch rather than risk losing PW. With bessie/PW both seemingly absent from the final play, I think jimbob probably would have been more active in protecting his buddy here.


Suppose Hari is scum:
Spoiler:
7) Unlikely buddies with flicky from 1), cemper from 3), BoomFrog 4), jimbob from 6). Much of the argument for jimbob/PW/bessie applies to Hari/PW/bessie as well... Hari would essentially be making a solo decision whether or not to push PW after scum had already settled on flicky as the likely choice of wagon. I don't know Hari's meta well enough to rule this out quite as much as I would with jimbob, but at this point I'd consider bessie pretty much the only viable buddy for Hari.


Suppose bessie is scum:
Spoiler:
8) Unlikely to be buddies with flicky from 1), BoomFrog from 5), jimbob from 6). Hari/bessie is possible from 7), cemper/bessie has potential from 3).


Summary:
-flicky is Town
-Plausible scum pairings are essentially limited to: {BoomFrog, jimbob}, {cemper, jimbob}, {cemper, bessie}, {Hari, bessie}, in rough order of likelihood.

Best chance of hitting scum today is jimbob.
Vote jimbob

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LaserGuy
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:22 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:But only LaserGuy is plausibly buddies with Madge

Suzaku wrote:Madge was a member of the Town

BoomFrog wrote:Vote LaserGuy


@BoomFrog: I was actually serious in my desire for an explanation for this, btw.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:36 pm UTC

@jimbob:

It is unusual for you to get your reads/analysis finished so early in the Day. Any particular reason why you felt it a priority to get this done so quickly?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:37 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Following up on 2), scum was secure enough in the flicky lynch that PW did not feel the need to vote before deadline. I think this makes Boom/cemper an unlikely team as BoomFrog would probably not have swung the lynch away from scum's preferred target to a last minute lynch of PW, leaving cemper vulnerable D2.
Could not the same be said of a {BoomFrog, jimbob} team?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:42 pm UTC

And before you ask I did read your other cases but really don't see why you want to discard one possibility and keep the other.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:47 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Following up on 2), scum was secure enough in the flicky lynch that PW did not feel the need to vote before deadline. I think this makes Boom/cemper an unlikely team as BoomFrog would probably not have swung the lynch away from scum's preferred target to a last minute lynch of PW, leaving cemper vulnerable D2.
Could not the same be said of a {BoomFrog, jimbob} team?


Swinging the lynch would be much lower risk for Boom/jim than Boom/cemper. cemper was already voting for flicky, so his vote was already accounted for. With Boom/jim, both were present at deadline and had votes available to swing back to flicky if needed. Even if cemper were present at deadline, his vote would not have been available to prevent PW from being lynched.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:56 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:With Boom/jim, both were present at deadline and had votes available to swing back to flicky if needed.
Clearly it was not needed otherwise they would have done it. In what scenario would this be needed that didn't actually happen? How could BoomFrog switch back to mislynch flicky without being suspicious?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:13 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:With Boom/jim, both were present at deadline and had votes available to swing back to flicky if needed.
Clearly it was not needed otherwise they would have done it. In what scenario would this be needed that didn't actually happen? How could BoomFrog switch back to mislynch flicky without being suspicious?


He said he would switch back if the vote were tied. jimbob also indicated he would vote flicky in the event of a tied vote. I thought he had said this earlier, but it looks like this was only when he conscientiously showed up at 3 minutes before deadline.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:14 pm UTC

I'm not really liking LaserGuy's responses to my points against him:
LaserGuy wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@LaserGuy - why did you vote Madge D2 (the latter time)? What did you find scummy about her?


I was working on the assumption Madge was likely a PR. Her claim D1 didn't make sense to me to be coming from a VT. Sabrar's claim and the subsequent discussion convinced me that Madge was probably not a PR, or at least, needed to claim if she were. VT claim looked bad on her, and her subsequent refusals to help Town in any way after her claim led me to believe she was caught scum.
You appeared to believe that she was scum before Madge's "subsequent refusals", given that you explicitly said before that that we would have to lynch her, so those refusals would have done no more than "confirm" your existing read, which as noted before I felt came a bit suddenly.

LaserGuy wrote:
Firstly, LaserGuy's vote on Madge appeared to be because he wanted her to claim, but then he maintains that vote after her claim, with no additional explanation.


This is weirdly ignoring the context of the situation. It should be clear from here, here and here that I thought Madge was either PR or scum. My earlier read on her also alludes to this.
The first link does not indicate that it was PR or scum, only that scum would claim VT, and that you expected Madge to claim PR. You make no mention of the case for VT!Madge. I could maybe buy the second one, although "quite unlikely" is hardly a strong belief of town!Madge implying PR!Madge, in my reading of that phrase. The third link is irrelevant, since it contains no explanation for the vote beyond essentially "you are scum".

LaserGuy wrote:
and Hari backing down on a suggestion he acknowledged was a bad idea.


I didn't vote for him because he backed down. I voted for him because the conclusion of my argument was this:
LaserGuy wrote:All that lynching me without a claim does is gives scum a free mislynch and a free shot at one of our PRs.

And Hari agreeing with that statement implies he knows that lynching me is a mislynch. This is another strange misunderstanding from you.
Before you even made that post, Hari had already backed away from the case. As Hari noted immediately after your FoS, he was not referring to you being town/scum, he was agreeing that the plan was bad. Why are you ignoring what he said?

LaserGuy wrote:
He's also not said anything yet except "Woof?" D3. Generally, not getting good vibes here.


Day started fairly late at night for me and I can't post much on weekends. I feel like you should know this.
I have no idea what time zone you are in, nor have I tracked how much you contribute at weekends. The fact that you were able to post something indicates that you had time to react and say something, so I don't see your point. The vibes comment was not specific to D3, but more general.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Thank you Hari for the detailed response and I can see where you're coming from, but, no, I think you got the wrong end of the stick on most of those points, unfortunately. I'll post a more detailed response later on anything I feel needs more clarity (along with responses to anyone else), but the quick summary responses:

On contradictions, I felt you were contradicting yourself somewhat on someone being willing to bus, but I was not referring to your case on me. I need to go back and look at my notes though to see who it was.
Coming back to this point, and looking back at my notes (which are woefully limited on this topic - my mistake), I think I was referring to how you felt partner vibes D2 when looking back over Sabrar and PW, yet Sabrar voted for PW as well as BoomFrog. I'm not going to look back at this though, as this bit wasn't really a strong point, and I don't really have the time for it.

Hari, I think that this and my other answers addressed all your points, but please let me know if they did not.

LaserGuy wrote:@jimbob:

It is unusual for you to get your reads/analysis finished so early in the Day. Any particular reason why you felt it a priority to get this done so quickly?
I have a lot of time at weekends, and relatively little during the week, usually, maybe enough for one big post per day on some days, and much less on others. Plus, I was conscious of the fact that I only did proper reads of half the players D2, due to time. All together, that meant that it was best for me to get things done as much as possible yesterday. I'll update those reads if and when I get a chance before deadline, but I think I'm more likely to be able to decide who is scum based on previous days' play anyway.

I still haven't read BoomFrog, and will do that either tomorrow or Wednesday evening, along with an updated team analysis, but I don't want to start now, as I'll end up staying up way too late again.
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Sabrar
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:19 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:He said he would switch back if the vote were tied.
Yes, but for that it doesn't matter who BoomFrog's buddy is. He clearly stated he would be there until deadline, there was no need for his buddy to be there as well.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby BoomFrog » Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:50 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:But only LaserGuy is plausibly buddies with Madge

Suzaku wrote:Madge was a member of the Town

BoomFrog wrote:Vote LaserGuy

@BoomFrog: I was actually serious in my desire for an explanation for this, btw.

Yeah, I knew you were, but forgot about it while replying to others. Sorry. Anyway, I find you likely scum for several reasons, none of which were that Madge seemed scummy. It's just that I couldn't think of anyone who was likely Madge's partner besides you. Scum!LaserGuy still has other possible partners.

(Scum!Madge => Scum!LaserGuy) does not mean (Town!Madge => Town!LaserGuy)
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:59 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:The first link does not indicate that it was PR or scum, only that scum would claim VT, and that you expected Madge to claim PR. You make no mention of the case for VT!Madge. I could maybe buy the second one, although "quite unlikely" is hardly a strong belief of town!Madge implying PR!Madge, in my reading of that phrase. The third link is irrelevant, since it contains no explanation for the vote beyond essentially "you are scum".

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Before you even made that post, Hari had already backed away from the case. As Hari noted immediately after your FoS, he was not referring to you being town/scum, he was agreeing that the plan was bad. Why are you ignoring what he said?


I am confused why you are advancing these two lines simultaneously. I'm going to quote my response to Hari's plan verbatim.
LaserGuy wrote:I've been trying to figure out what pinged me about this (aside from the "lynch LaserGuy" part).

The problem is that Madge's role is only unknown for Town right now. If Madge is Town, it is more than likely that she is the doctor. It is quite unlikely that Madge is VT pretending to be a PR given her play this game. If Madge is mafia, then she will be counterclaimed by the real doctor, and we trade, at worst, one PR for one mafia, which is a pretty good deal in this position. Lynching me ahead of Madge doesn't resolve anything. If Madge is mafia, then the real doctor will be forced to counterclaim her tomorrow anyway. If Madge is Town, mafia already knows she is very likely a PR and can NK her if they want to. Doc!Madge doesn't hurt Town by claiming--if anything, it's probably better for her to claim than not if she's the doctor, since then Madge/Sabrar could potentially cross-protect each other.

All that lynching me without a claim does is gives scum a free mislynch and a free shot at one of our PRs.


Please explain how this argument would make any sense if I believed Madge might be a VT.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:07 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:He said he would switch back if the vote were tied.
Yes, but for that it doesn't matter who BoomFrog's buddy is. He clearly stated he would be there until deadline, there was no need for his buddy to be there as well.


The buddy could have tied the vote and then BoomFrog switched to flicky to break the tie.

I do think that your point is fair that I probably underestimated the likelihood of Boom/cemper though. I'll add them to my plausible pile.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:12 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:The buddy could have tied the vote and then BoomFrog switched to flicky to break the tie.
But that makes the buddy look suspicious, especially if it's jimbob who was anti-NL.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D2

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:29 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:The buddy could have tied the vote and then BoomFrog switched to flicky to break the tie.
But that makes the buddy look suspicious, especially if it's jimbob who was anti-NL.


Yes. I made similar comments in my Boom/jim analysis, though I think there were ways that it could have been contrived that this wouldn't be an issue, just not so close to the deadline. Regardless though, scum!jim in this scenario means scum has more control over the outcome than say, scum!cemper and Town!jim, because in scum's accounting of the votes, it's one of the "undecided" votes that definitely wouldn't move against PW. Look at your accounting here:
Looks like nobody will unvote flicky, therefore we would need 5 votes to lynch someone else.

Hari Seldon: won't vote out of fear of lynching a PR. Very bad idea[
BoomFrog: vehemently opposes Madge
bessie: likely stuck on Madge
flicky: likely stuck on PW
jimbob: vehement on cemper, could vote for Madge
PW: likely stuck not voting
somitomi: likely stuck not voting
(plus Sabrar)


Assuming that nobody is going to switch from flicky to PW, where can you get five votes out of this? flicky is already on PW. That's one. You and Boom swing over makes three. PW isn't going to vote for himself. bessie indicated she would not be around at deadline. The only votes available were Hari, jimbob, and somitomi. If jimbob is scum, the only way PW gets lynched is if both Hari and somitomi are both 1) around, and 2) want to lynch PW over flicky.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:30 pm UTC

Scum was probably counting Hari against the total since he preferred NL and was opposed to lynching an unclaimed player.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:58 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Because he felt like he didn't care about the lynch. He started the day strong, then hung back (which was fine), then... kept hanging back. He didn't form any strong opinions or try and influence others. He stayed in data gathering mode when it was time for action. I think he was worried about the lynch because the top 3 candidates were all town.


Can you point to specifically what you are referring to here?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:09 am UTC

Uh also, @BoomFrog, why haven't you commented on basically any of jimbob's content this game?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:21 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:and if they decide they don't like me, they'll post a more detailed explanation as to why subsequently.
So until the detailed read was provided you were not interested why you were on the list? Didn't you want to find out whether LaserGuy put you there for scummy reasons?
What detailed read? And please don't ask loaded questions like that second question. They aren't helpful, and just show that you're starting to tunnel again. I would love to know why everybody does what they do in this game, but I can't ask about everything, even if I notice it all. I focus on what I find suspicious or disagree with. A slight suspicion on me was not unwarranted, in my mind, so hardly a big deal. If, however, he'd converted that to a vote or FoS, or even pushed me further up the list to a serious concern, I'd have expected an explanation. Contrast that to Hari where I completely disagreed with his reasons for his read on me, and so had something to get defensive about.


That's interesting because I did upgrade my suspicions of you. And you had already already noticed that I wasn't providing reads on people without them prodding me.

Also your tone here is quite alarming.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:13 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Scum was probably counting Hari against the total since he preferred NL and was opposed to lynching an unclaimed player.

Since "scum" in the hypothetical you are discussing is me and JimBob, I should point out that I was very aware that Hari would be willing to vote PW.

LaserGuy wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Because he felt like he didn't care about the lynch. He started the day strong, then hung back (which was fine), then... kept hanging back. He didn't form any strong opinions or try and influence others. He stayed in data gathering mode when it was time for action. I think he was [not] worried about the lynch because the top 3 candidates were all town.


Can you point to specifically what you are referring to here?
Added the underlined word that had been left out. Just to make sure there is no confusion. It's a bit hard to quote a lack of posting. But looking back at your posts from when you unvote PW to when you vote flicky you only post short one liners and mostly questions. Your only bit of analysis is when you vote flicky and that looks a lot like a justification to vote flicky and not an analysis of who is most likely scum:
LaserGuy wrote:Mmm.... my feeling here is that it is more likely that you don't really have solid reads, aren't really making an effort to develop any, and are kind of adjusting where you're on Madge at based on who you think is most likely to be lynched. Both of your reads on myself and Peaceful Whale earlier seemed to be similarly skewed toward "who is likely lynchbait" rather than "who is likely mafia".

Vote: flicky

I think somitomi and jimbob are buddies with him.
You know what they say about 3rd on the wagon, don't you? :wink:

After that your only posts are more short one liners and trying to justify lynching flicky anyway, and saying we should NL instead of lynching someone else.

LaserGuy wrote:Uh also, @BoomFrog, why haven't you commented on basically any of jimbob's content this game?
His analysis is so dry, picking it apart is useless. However, as I said before I like the way he has questioned me and reeled me back in several times and pointed out his observations of town-indications. I don't think scum!Jim would be defending others so much.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Hari Seldon » Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:33 am UTC

@Boom, how did you know I would vote for PW? Also, could you point out which posts in particular your Town Jim read stem from?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby bessie » Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:41 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:I don’t understand what would ping you from that post.
It's just that you seemed to advocate an interpretation that later turned out to be completely incorrect.
I considered the cases where scum moody would want to keep PW alive. Now they’re all incorrect because moody wasn’t scum, and PW wasn’t town. But neither of those things were known on D1. I don’t understand why that post would ping you.

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:BoomDog analysis:
I apologize if this sounds rude but did you even make the effort to understand town!BF's pov? All I'm seeing in your analysis are the possible scenarios where he is scum and the things that trouble you.
I don’t do the type of behavioral analysis where you do a case on someone, like some others in this game can do (or the person that is really good at this is SDK). Did I talk about this already? Hmm, not much, there’s this:
bessie wrote:I understand where he is coming from with his flicky read, I think he is misreading flicky but I’ve never been able to do that type of read. More on flicky here. Still don’t agree, but again, I’ve never been good at behavior type analysis.

Also look in the spoiler in this post.
bessie wrote:So on the whole, I think that it’s risky to rely on meta arguments because meta can be deceptive. Of course this would be my opinion because I’m not really good at meta reading players. Some players are. Some people are remarkably good at meta reads and can pick out the one thing that another player always does as scum and catch them. I can’t, and I’m not a particularly good scum hunter either. I can’t do a case based on a player’s behavioral patterns throughout the entire game. I do lists of points that don’t look right to me, often for technical reasons. So I’m struggling in this game with no contradicting claims or night results to pick apart.

You know how I play, so I don’t know what exactly you expected of me. I’m not going to analyze all BoomFrog’s content from the point of view of town BoomFrog (or from the point of view of scum BoomFrog) and try to explain it. I reread his content from what I think was an objective point of view.

So back to your questions, no, I didn’t exactly do this:
Sabrar wrote:I apologize if this sounds rude but did you even make the effort to understand town!BF's pov?

But that wasn’t what you originally asked me to do, which was this:
Sabrar wrote: Do you think you could reread BoomFrog with the assumption that he's Town?
Which I did attempt to do, it took me about an hour to look carefully at the woof half of D1, when I was originally reading BoomFrog as town. Then I spent another hour on the second part of D1, when I started to suspect BoomFrog was woof woof, and tried to look at the end of day as still reading BoomFrog as town. Then I put about an hour in to trying to read D2 from the assumption that Boomfrog is town, but found several points that still bothered me. Then I put about an hour into organizing my notes and writing the post. Sorry all my efforts disappointed you.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
bessie wrote:Ninja'd by Hari and jimbob, it's 2:00 am I'll reply tomorrow.
That's crazy late to be playing Mafia!
Well, I started at about 10:00pm and didn’t expect it to take four hours to make that post. But I’m not really a fast thinker. :oops: And then I was awake another hour just thinking about the game! :shock:

Hari Seldon wrote: @Bessie, I was referring to later on D1. Also with regard to the one off remark, that isn't correct. PW thought I was BoomFrog in Halloween.
Sorry Hari, I didn’t actually reread Halloween, I didn’t remember how much of the Hari speculation was in thread, but PW’s remark from this game reminded me of the Gojoe quote. I put a lot of the "hey let’s try to figure out if we know Hari from somewhere" discussion out of my mind because quite frankly, I thought it was impolite and it made me uncomfortable.

I didn’t reread Crossover either, but I remember that I did my best to help/protect PW on D2, the link to the mason chat log is posted.

flicky1991 wrote:bessie
scum
Interesting. May I inquire why? Because if you have a reason you’ve kept it well hidden.

Will pick up tomorrow with BoomFrog’s posts at the bottom of P27. My mind is willing but my eyes water when I’m tired, so I’m having trouble reading.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:56 am UTC

@bessie: ok, now I understand what you did, it's just that the result (or how you presented it) was not what I expected.

bessie wrote:Now they’re all incorrect because moody wasn’t scum, and PW wasn’t town. But neither of those things were known on D1
Except to possible scum!you. Do you really not see why I find that interesting?

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:58 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:That's interesting because I did upgrade my suspicions of you. And you had already already noticed that I wasn't providing reads on people without them prodding me.
Fine, so I didn't comment on everything regarding me. I might have missed that particular point, I don't remember. Or the fact that you voted flicky there drew my attention more. I would definitely have noticed had it been me being voted, and would have challenged it.

LaserGuy wrote:Also your tone here is quite alarming.
Which bit? The bit where I got annoyed for Sabrar asking a leading question? Sabrar may be confirmed town, but that doesn't mean I have to agree with him asking these sort of questions. How would you have reacted?
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:33 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Also your tone here is quite alarming.


Which bit? The bit where I got annoyed for Sabrar asking a leading question? Sabrar may be confirmed town, but that doesn't mean I have to agree with him asking these sort of questions. How would you have reacted?


You seem very agitated and defensive toDay. It's quite peculiar. Your reaction to Sabrar's question was to immediately get personal.

I would still like an explanation for this.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:55 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:The first link does not indicate that it was PR or scum, only that scum would claim VT, and that you expected Madge to claim PR. You make no mention of the case for VT!Madge. I could maybe buy the second one, although "quite unlikely" is hardly a strong belief of town!Madge implying PR!Madge, in my reading of that phrase. The third link is irrelevant, since it contains no explanation for the vote beyond essentially "you are scum".

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Before you even made that post, Hari had already backed away from the case. As Hari noted immediately after your FoS, he was not referring to you being town/scum, he was agreeing that the plan was bad. Why are you ignoring what he said?


I am confused why you are advancing these two lines simultaneously. I'm going to quote my response to Hari's plan verbatim.
LaserGuy wrote:I've been trying to figure out what pinged me about this (aside from the "lynch LaserGuy" part).

The problem is that Madge's role is only unknown for Town right now. If Madge is Town, it is more than likely that she is the doctor. It is quite unlikely that Madge is VT pretending to be a PR given her play this game. If Madge is mafia, then she will be counterclaimed by the real doctor, and we trade, at worst, one PR for one mafia, which is a pretty good deal in this position. Lynching me ahead of Madge doesn't resolve anything. If Madge is mafia, then the real doctor will be forced to counterclaim her tomorrow anyway. If Madge is Town, mafia already knows she is very likely a PR and can NK her if they want to. Doc!Madge doesn't hurt Town by claiming--if anything, it's probably better for her to claim than not if she's the doctor, since then Madge/Sabrar could potentially cross-protect each other.

All that lynching me without a claim does is gives scum a free mislynch and a free shot at one of our PRs.


Please explain how this argument would make any sense if I believed Madge might be a VT.
Your argument here implicitly allows for VT!Madge - you saying it is "quite unlikely", does not imply that you are certain about PR!Madge/scum!Madge, and you acknowledge that scum only knows that it is "very likely" that she is a PR. I'm not disputing that you considered it most likely that she wasn't VT. What I'm saying is that the logic didn't flow to VT-claimed Madge must be scum, so the jump there seems rather sudden to me.

As a side point, I'm surprised more people didn't consider the evidence pointing to {VT or scum}!Madge prior to her claim (note how she was scared of being lynched, something that PR!Madge wouldn't have been concerned about nearly as much, since her ability to claim made her safe).
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:16 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:Uh also, @BoomFrog, why haven't you commented on basically any of jimbob's content this game?
His analysis is so dry, picking it apart is useless. However, as I said before I like the way he has questioned me and reeled me back in several times and pointed out his observations of town-indications. I don't think scum!Jim would be defending others so much.


Can you point specifically to which questions to you're referring to? These are the only instances I can find of jimbob addressing you directly:

jimbob wrote:@bessie/BoomFrog - did scum!cemper ever show indication of gambits involving asking mods fake questions in order to look better with a future plan?

jimbob wrote:@BoomFrog, can you explain why you think cemper said there was no night chat?

jimbob wrote:BoomFrog, I don't understand your delayed counter-claim suggestion. It would have denied us clarity on who to lynch, and therefore a big chance of a mislynch. The information we would have gotten from vote analysis of the later, more panicked train might have proved useful, but could just as easily be generated on a later day.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:19 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:bessie
scum
Interesting. May I inquire why? Because if you have a reason you’ve kept it well hidden.
As I said, I had no strong scum reads. I only made a scum-to-town list due to LaserGuy's prompt, and when I made the list, you just ended up at the bottom. I dislike long posts that don't seem to actually be saying much, I disagree with you about jimbob/LaserGuy, and your interactions towards Whale D1 could be you trying not to put all your help for him in scum chat.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 23, 2018 3:07 pm UTC

Silly meta-read incoming.

1. jimbob has demonstrated an uncanny ability in the past of finding breadcrumbs/guessing at people's roles. If he didn't know Vicarin was Cop it's unlikely others did.
2. Scum!BoomFrog defends town!Madge that hard only if he is 200% certain Madge is PR and expects me to come to the same conclusion and thinks I would attack him otherwise.
3. On N1 Doc/Watcher will almost never target Madge.
4. On the other hand they might target Vicarin (the consensus townie) if they guess correctly that scum won't target somitomi (the obvious target).
5. So why did scum!BoomFrog go for Vicarin instead of Madge? Because he knew he was Cop.
6. That means scum!BoomFrog's partner must be jimbob.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - N2

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:12 pm UTC

For RL reasons I will probably not post for the next 24 hours.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:23 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:1. jimbob has demonstrated an uncanny ability in the past of finding breadcrumbs/guessing at people's roles. If he didn't know Vicarin was Cop it's unlikely others did.
FWIW, I don't think I've ever found someone's breadcrumb before they pointed it out. Guessing somebody's role in a closed setup on the other hand has become a bit of a speciality, although there's usually some evidence, such as claims, flips or night results to work with when I do.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:24 pm UTC

Bottom 3 lists from everyone please.

This was cemper's last post, right?

Request mod-prod on cemper93

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby flicky1991 » Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:46 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:If he didn't know Vicarin was Cop it's unlikely others did.
I don't like this part of the logic, and without it you lose the connection to jimbob. So I'm not sure I agree with this at all.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:05 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Please explain how this argument would make any sense if I believed Madge might be a VT.
Your argument here implicitly allows for VT!Madge - you saying it is "quite unlikely", does not imply that you are certain about PR!Madge/scum!Madge, and you acknowledge that scum only knows that it is "very likely" that she is a PR. I'm not disputing that you considered it most likely that she wasn't VT. What I'm saying is that the logic didn't flow to VT-claimed Madge must be scum, so the jump there seems rather sudden to me.[/quote]

I find it amusing that in Crossover people were giving me a hard time for being too confident in my reads; here you're giving me a hard time for trying to accurately reflect my confidence level in my read :roll:. Yes, I was not absolutely certain that VT-claimed Madge would flip scum, but I figured it was maybe 80% shot of hitting scum, which was good enough for a vote.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:06 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Your argument here implicitly allows for VT!Madge - you saying it is "quite unlikely", does not imply that you are certain about PR!Madge/scum!Madge, and you acknowledge that scum only knows that it is "very likely" that she is a PR. I'm not disputing that you considered it most likely that she wasn't VT. What I'm saying is that the logic didn't flow to VT-claimed Madge must be scum, so the jump there seems rather sudden to me.


I find it amusing that in Crossover people were giving me a hard time for being too confident in my reads; here you're giving me a hard time for trying to accurately reflect my confidence level in my read :roll:. Yes, I was not absolutely certain that VT-claimed Madge would flip scum, but I figured it was maybe 80% shot of hitting scum, which was good enough for a vote.

EBWOP: Quote fix

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:13 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Bottom 3 lists from everyone please.


jimbob, BoomFrog. Third is a toss-up between cemper and bessie, though at this point I honestly doubt I would want to vote for either at this stage.

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby wam » Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:15 pm UTC

cemper has been prodded
Come join us playing mafia signup here

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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:25 pm UTC

Time to work on that BoomFrog read, so that I am more or less up to date on everybody. Previous day 1 read was strongly town.
Spoiler:
Agrees with some of Hari analysis of woof reactions. Thinks Sabrar/Vicarin misunderstanding not alignment indicative, maybe offering Sabrar townie points. No Lynch analysis, not clear cut, but intuition says better to not. Raises Sabrar to neutral for raising good points, and thinks PoE or connections required to identify him as scum. Bessie play worrying, for overdoing PW attacks, and somitomi grilling. Advises her to back off. Asks cemper about why finding him and bessie scummy. Switches vote to Madge for not getting what bessie was saying about knowledge of alignment. Provides bottom 5 including Madge, PW, somitomi, flicky, cemper. Thinks LaserGuy plan was posted to try and help, not to earn townie points, concludes town on him. Sitting back to try and see how things develop. flicky not responding to advice looks bad. Doesn't think he's doing any actual scum hunting. Against NL unless convinced by Sabrar.

Discusses when to claim, and we should reach consensus early. Removes cemper from lynch list, as reasoning is plausible and consistent. Don't force No Lynch. Town points ot Hari. Confirming PRs and sanity not helpful. Prods Madge for an answer. Switches vote to flicky after Madge soft-claim, advising her not to claim. Madge lynch "too easy". Doesn't want to discuss Madge claim. Has slight town lean on her. Wagon with scum gets more resistance. Asks people to decide between flicky and somitomi as scum. Expected scum!flicky to claim PR, but VT might actually be better claim for scum. Doesn't think Hari or cemper scum. Thinks about it. Discusses with Sabrar over which would scum do. Switches vote to Cemper, preferring him to Madge, but would prefer PW above both. Argues that flicky is not guaranteed town. Tone of flicky was doomed townie. Doesn't think scum!Sabrar would tie himself to flicky. Proposes PW to Hari instead of cemper. Pull back on Madge not based on soft-claim. Suggests compromising to PW, and switches vote there. Pushes Sabrar to switch. Doesn't think PW lynch is going to happen. Prods me and bessie to switch or flicky gets lynched.

D2. Somitomi should only claim scum-indicative results. Against Madge claiming. Reminds of "breadcrumb" found by PW. 95% town on Sabrar, but bothered by Madge disconnect. Current guess is cemper and LaserGuy. Continues stating that hed doesn't want to lynch Madge. Wants bessie to update her list based on new information. Disagrees that PW asking about moody a strong point. PW really hard to read. Feels LG didn't care about lynch, and held back end of D1. Explains why less concerned by cemper. Town lean on me generally, bessie slightly scummy except attacked PW hard. Claims gains of bussing PW outweighed by loss of teammate D1. Asks cemper about experience with day chat. Asks Sabrar about reasons for voting Madge. Thinks non-PW voters contains both scum. Discusses Madge read with bessie. Discusses with bessie over lynching PW versus lynching Madge D1. Didn't think PW slip was scum slip, bt thought that scum!LG would jump on it to get credit. LG drifting towards townie, cemper seems scummiest. Flicky being counterwagon to PW does not imply town!flicky. Explains BF plan, and still thinks last two scum in non-PW voters. Wants Madge to claim so everybody can focus on actual scum. Sabrar behaviour around PW lynch suspicious. Votes cemper. Doesn't understand cemper train of thought over Sabrar cemper-prod timings, and doesn't think it indicates scum!Sabrar. Thinks scum!cemper might have been confused about night chat, and then contrived to bring it up again, but the misunderstanding of my question seemed genuine, and doesn't fit the theory, so unvotes. Pushes Sabrar to explain behaviour around PW wagon, due to others seeming townie. Doesn't think scum!me would question him about pushes on others. Doesn't think LG and Sabrar buddies. Sabrar most likely scum from PW voters. Only LG plausible buddies with Madge. Continues to seek clarity from Sabrar for pushing PW wagon. Switches vote to Madge after Sabrar claim, saying he'd been convinced she was watcher. Thinks LG her buddy. Madge excited D1, so must be PR or scum. Wants to know why bessie not voting for her. Doesn't want discussions about how to react to Madge claim until after claim, but doctor shouldn't counter-claim right away. Confused by bessie reactions over Madge/Laserguy. Was considering whether to use tracker plan to try to verify doctor claim, but decides not worth it. Confused by bessie not wanting to lynch scum!Madge first. Thinks last scum is bessie, or next likely, LaserGuy. Backs down on bessie following points raised by Sabrar. Town!Madge suggests suspicious bessie. Hari is interesting case, for dropping most analysis following PW lynch. Considers flicky/Hari team, but finds it a bit too blatant, plus flicky claim sounded sincere.

D3. Votes LaserGuy, and expects bessie to vote him. Restates reason as lack of interaction with D1 lynch. Doesn't understand bessie's logic over scum!Madge implying scum!BF. Discusses with Sabrar over confidence levels and slips in early days versus later information from voting. Continues confused discussion with bessie. Still thinks LG scum despite town!Madge, as there are other possible partners. Goes into detail on LG read. Picking apart my dry analysis is useless :( .
I don't see BoomFrog being scum. The obvious point is his push on the PW wagon. He was actively feeling out whether it was viable before switching onto it, and after doing so, continued to push for people to switch. I don't think he'd have done so to the extent that he did, if he'd wanted to pull off an almost-lynch of PW, without actually doing so. However, I also like a lot of the rest of his content. He agrees with me over LaserGuy being suspicious, which is good FMPOV, and is actively considering his position on various people, changing his mind quite dramatically on occasion when shown to be likely wrong (see cemper and me asking him about his read there, and backing down on bessie following Sabrar's comment re. tunnelling). I don't feel like he's flipping opinions for insincere reasons at all. I am somewhat concerned about his flipping on Madge following Sabrar's claim, since, like with LaserGuy, there was little justification behind it initially. Overall, I don't have anything definitive on BoomFrog indicating his townieness, but I certainly feel like he is townie. Of all the players in the game, he would be the most likely to be playing really well, and gone for a hard, unnecessary bus on PW, but it seems unlikely.

List hasn't changed much from earlier, aside from moving cemper up because I completely trust my read of his town-slip, more so than the flicky one, and BoomFrog is, well, BoomFrog:
Town
Sabrar
cemper
flicky
BoomFrog
bessie
Hari Seldon
LaserGuy
Scum

I need to go back over bessie's D1 content to convince myself whether she could have attacked her buddy as much as she did. And I need to re-review Hari Seldon/LaserGuy to see if they could possibly be linked. And flicky to see if I'm being way too confident in my town read of his D1 play. Basically, I'm struggling to see a viable team at the moment, which means that I'm wrong on one or more of my existing reads, or scum {cemper/flicky} faked a slip.
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Re: Newbie New Year Mafia - D3

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Jan 24, 2018 12:22 am UTC

Alright, I found a little time, and there's suprisingly little content to catch up on.

Hari Seldon wrote:@Boom, how did you know I would vote for PW?
Because you said you would consider it and I thought it likely you would succumb to the pressure. Rereading it I was probably overconfident that you would switch, but it seemed like you would. Now that I'm revisiting it, at the time did you prefer lynching PW over Flicky or was your vote solely for NL?

Hari wrote:Also, could you point out which posts in particular your Town Jim read stem from?

LaserGuy wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:However, as I said before I like the way he has questioned me and reeled me back in several times and pointed out his observations of town-indications. I don't think scum!Jim would be defending others so much.


Can you point specifically to which questions to you're referring to? These are the only instances I can find of jimbob addressing you directly:

...
jimbob wrote:@BoomFrog, can you explain why you think cemper said there was no night chat?

...
LaserGuy found one, I remember there being one more defending LaserGuy. Interesting that LG didn't find it.

Times up. I'll look for it later.
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