Secret Santa 2017 Endgame - Merry Christmas

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wam
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:34 pm UTC

@sabrar I know I should stop replying but oh well where a the fun in that.

Scum hunting involves 2 steps

1. Analysing posts and working out what is scummy -
many different ways of doing this and looking scummy.

2. Making your case to the rest of town.

As far as I can see 2 is a step you have managed to skip.

I am pushing moody as I have gone from a middle read to suddenly scummy. Reading his post it looked like a scum keeping his options open. If Madge flips scum I would call moody as a likely buddy.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby plytho » Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:39 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
plytho wrote:Madge: trying to reboot her meta would look scummy if she hadn’t been saying she’d do exactly that in the last game. Her defense does look pretty winey but I’m kind of sympathetic to it because “well, I’ll make this my town meta” is what I said in the crossover game.
I’m thinking about this. We never did have that discussion after Crossover (see this post). Your content so far in this game has been, well, for you, pretty tame, as already noted by me. You are usually more confrontational, but you possibly were purposely so in Crossover in an effort to make it your town meta. So I don’t know what to think right now, except to note that you have made a conscious decision in the past to develop a meta, and you may be doing so now.
I didn’t really make a conscious decision to develop a meta before. I felt like those discussions we had were part of plytho-meta, rather than scum!plytho-meta or town!plytho-meta, and I wouldn’t be able to avoid them in the future so I didn’t hold back in crossover. I’m not trying to develop a new meta in this game.

bessie wrote:
plytho wrote: I wouldn’t say lists are seen as townie. They are beneficial to town though.
Yes but having an opinion, contributing to discussion, posting a read or a list, etc is pro town.
I think that’s what I’m saying?

bessie wrote:
plytho wrote:Not lynching provides us no information and (almost) definitely loses us a townie.
This is an odd comment. Whether or not we lynch someone on D1 shouldn’t have any effect on the night kill.
That’s kind of the point I was trying to make: skipping the lynch is not skipping the night.

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I still don't understand why moody claimed this early. I can't see why town would feel the need to claim this role D1. I'm nervous, because there has been a lot of discussion recently about early claims being auto-treated as town, and so might give scum the idea to try it out as an early gambit.
Surely you remember this?

That’s a pretty good example of jimbob’s point, isn’t it?

Liri wrote: Plytho, I liked your flavor interpretation.
Thanks. Though it’s invalid since LaserGuy stated that flavor is only flavor.

Madge picking moody as her lynch target is inconsistent with her reads list.

moody7277 wrote: and yes I have decided to go ahead with it tonight, when I had hoped to point out what the redirection did after people had posted results.
Are you expecting a lot of claims D2? This is the smallest game I’ve played so far so things may be different due to the size, but I don’t really expect any claims D2. When did you make the decision to use your power tonight? Before or after you claimed?
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:42 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I still don't understand why moody claimed this early. I can't see why town would feel the need to claim this role D1. I'm nervous, because there has been a lot of discussion recently about early claims being auto-treated as town, and so might give scum the idea to try it out as an early gambit.
Surely you remember this?

That’s a pretty good example of jimbob’s point, isn’t it?
No, it's an extremely similar situation where town!redirector claimed early, so jimbob not understanding why moody would do the same is a bit puzzling.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:44 pm UTC

wam wrote:@sabrar I know I should stop replying but oh well where a the fun in that.
Oh I agree completely.

wam wrote:As far as I can see 2 is a step you have managed to skip.
I'm trying not to spoon-feed everything to them. And I know I will be hated for that remark.

wam wrote:I am pushing moody as I have gone from a middle read to suddenly scummy. Reading his post it looked like a scum keeping his options open. If Madge flips scum I would call moody as a likely buddy.
That's not the issue. I only quoted the relevant part.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby plytho » Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:51 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
plytho wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I still don't understand why moody claimed this early. I can't see why town would feel the need to claim this role D1. I'm nervous, because there has been a lot of discussion recently about early claims being auto-treated as town, and so might give scum the idea to try it out as an early gambit.
Surely you remember this?

That’s a pretty good example of jimbob’s point, isn’t it?
No, it's an extremely similar situation where town!redirector claimed early, so jimbob not understanding why moody would do the same is a bit puzzling.
Right, I was focusing on the part I bolded.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby plytho » Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:10 pm UTC

A thought on available knowledge:
Most townies are aware of 3 roles in the game now (submitted, received, moody’s)
Scum may know up to 5 roles in the game at this point.(2 sumbitted, 2 received, moody’s)
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby moody7277 » Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:21 pm UTC

wam wrote:@moody given this is sabrar' s reason for voting me. I was wondering if you would care to give an explanation. Or link to one if I have missed it.


I don't give two cents about Sabrar's reasons for his scummy read on you. I think you're trying to get details on my power because you need to adjust your plans for N1.

plytho wrote:Are you expecting a lot of claims D2? This is the smallest game I’ve played so far so things may be different due to the size, but I don’t really expect any claims D2.


I usually expect result claims, but I'm almost always disappointed. Basically, I figure that results figure in to the more information is townie paradigm. Giving results, and accepting the truth of them, is also a measure of trust, and scum may also decide to give "results". I wanted the basics of my power out there so even if they didn't mention them in public, people could still adjust their thinking wrt their results.

Vote: wam

To quote SDK, this vote is now serious.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Liri » Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:22 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@moody, why is Liri in your votables list?


Aside from their last post, Liri has been rather circumferential in content. I'm much more likely to be voting wam or Madge though.

I've been pretty busy up till now.

I guess I'm also a little averse to just BSing reads on folks, but I haven't intended to be cagey or reticent about anything.

@Plytho: by "most townies" you mean all except the one who submitted Moody's role?
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Peaceful Whale » Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:33 pm UTC


Talking about submitted roles is heavily discouraged and punished.


So basically doen’t even acknowle the fact that these roles came from another player. It will make it easier on everyone.

Liri it’s fine, but every just stay far away from it please. It’s better to stay away from the edge.
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby somitomi » Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:35 pm UTC

wam wrote:@moody given this is sabrar' s reason for voting me. I was wondering if you would care to give an explanation. Or link to one if I have missed it.

Did I miss something? What are you asking for here? And why are you asking moody about Sabrar's explanation?

Some other notes I made:
I'm still rather mystified by Sabrar's strong conviction about the wam&Maven scum team and his refusal to explain it sensibly. He makes remarks like this one alluding he has a case file full of proofs but we haven't seen a smidgen of it.
plytho seems to be more active than before and seems to make good observations, I'm putting him higher on my list for now.
I have my suspicions about moody's claim too, it could very well be scum setting up a ruse to confuse town. I'm wondering if it could be false, the roles submitted by other players means we are more accepting of multiple similar roles being in the game. It would be a dangerous gambit to pull though...
Madge's refusal to vote was a red sign for me too and the remarks about "bias" are worrying me. I am willing to cut her some slack about the list ranging from slightly to slightly, becauseI almost appended the same thing to my first list.

TOWN
jimbobmacdoodle
bessie
plytho
Liri
Sabrar
Maven89
wam
moody7277
Madge

wam wrote:Whilst were at it I would.like an answer to this from everyone at this stage but particularly Liri and somi!

Madge, moody or you based on the above, I can't yet narrow it down further.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Peaceful Whale » Mon Dec 04, 2017 4:35 pm UTC

Note: “talking about submitted roles” means the fact that they were given by another player. Not the role you have.
My meta for future reference
Spoiler:
cemper93 wrote:Your meta appears to be "just writes whatever is on his mind and doesn't remember what happened more than five hours ago"

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Dec 04, 2017 5:22 pm UTC

      The assembled elves argued amongst each other for long hours. Suspicions were high and tempers were short.

      Suddenly, there was a shout, and a short figure emerged from the distance.

      "Hi everyone! Sorry I'm late. I had been binge-watching Real Housewives of the North Pole and completely lost track of time. Did I miss anything?"


Suzaku replaces Maven, effective immediately.

Deadline is in 3 days.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Mon Dec 04, 2017 5:29 pm UTC

Moody. I accept that as a good reason. Pr9bably didn't explain myself properly. I will put a detailed post in once I'm home but basically I wasn't pushing for more details I thought you were asking whether you should.claim.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby plytho » Mon Dec 04, 2017 5:50 pm UTC

Moody, I asked you multiple questions but you only answered one of them. Why is that? Also please answer my questions.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:49 pm UTC

Right so more detail on what I said in my previous post.

moody7277 wrote:Actually, my power is better for town if it doesn't come as a surprise that I use it. It's a bit of mass redirecting in a predictable manner, more than that deponent sayeth not unless and until people want me to set it up.


So this is looking for towns opinion, where you say people want you to set it up. I took this to mean you wanted advice on how to best use your power. To do which we would need more details.

moody7277 wrote:
plytho wrote:
moody7277 wrote:Actually, my power is better for town if it doesn't come as a surprise that I use it. It's a bit of mass redirecting in a predictable manner, more than that deponent sayeth not unless and until people want me to set it up.
Do you want to use it tonight?


I'm looking for input regarding it. Secret Santa two years ago, I had something similar that I used willy-nilly to the detriment of town. Not wanting to repeat that. Downside is there is a 20% chance that the person who came up with the role is scum and will be able to adjust their tactics. I'm willing to risk that because otherwise I'm just a VT.


This is also asking for towns advice. To do that I would say we need more information than you have provided so far.

moody7277 wrote:
plytho wrote:I understand your motivation for sharing your role with town. My question is why share this on D1 instead of later?


I figured that this was one of those roles that it is better for town to have in the open early on. If I had used it N1 and some people had gotten important results that my power made that result invalid (i.e. player A watches player X get killed by player Y), the frustration backlash would cause anything else I said to be called into question and there would even be speculation that it is a scum redirector role.

wam wrote:At this point Moody you have said enough you might as well come all out and claim.


The appropriate point to do that would be the day after I use it so I can clear up where all the redirection went.


Key phrase for me is is "in the open early on". I took in the open to mean a full claim...

So yeah based on the above I took it to mean you were going to full claim and then let town advise you. If your not that's fine I just read it wrong.

The other thing I have got a hint of reading through moody's post in isolation is he does seem to have pulled back from the initial offers. The tone seems to have changed from post 1 and 2 wanting input etc and then to now. Oh it was just a heads up guys incase we get some weird results tomorrow. Not sure what to make of that as it could just be confirmation bias.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:51 pm UTC

How does the below count as the "relevant part".

Sabrar wrote:
wam wrote:@moody
Further proof. Not that it was needed.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:56 pm UTC

Glad you asked.

town!wam would try to engage me and find out my reason/motivation. As evidenced before I sometimes give serious answers as well. No, this is scum!wam who knows that I caught him, so he ignores me and instead tries to shift attention elsewhere.
Same reasoning from another angle: if town!wam thinks that I'm scum then he should attack me and get Town to lynch me. If he thinks I'm Town he needs to convince me of his townieness, because town-on-town fight is the only way scum can win. He is doing neither.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Mon Dec 04, 2017 7:04 pm UTC

Transparent post hoc justification.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 04, 2017 7:15 pm UTC

Lol.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Mon Dec 04, 2017 7:28 pm UTC

Now I have the joke post out of the way, on a serious note, I am not sure how you can say I haven't been pushing for the basis of your scum! Wam conviction.

So the first real push on me was

Sabrar wrote:To whom it may concern, my vote on wam is serious.


My reply spoiler ed for length.

Spoiler:
wam wrote:
Madge wrote:
I'm trying to reboot my meta so I am going to have to think of something to say d1 apart from dropping hints based on my role :lol: which is harder than you'd think.



Over the weekend I have been thinking more on this over the weekend. I really don't see the logic in this claim as town.

I get trying to change you meta (Sometimes I wanted too). However, surely as town the best way to test a new meta is just to play using it. None of this WINE stuff. Madge is experienced enough to know how this would go down. I would think this is much more likely to be scum madge trying to cover any slips in the future. Using the meta change as an opportunity.

Based on that

Vote Madge

Maven I am happy to leave to the mods for now for either a replacement or a mod kill.

Regards the point on me I don't really have anything to add. I stated my reasoning and thats that. I should point out that my play style is pretty much the opposite of Bessie. I play on instinct and don't tend to think things through too much. I try and state what I am thinking as I go. This was evident in werewolf where everyone found me scummy D1. Being permantly scummy was also my meta back when I used to play a lot.

bessie wrote:
wam wrote:Here you go Bessie

Town (No particular order)

Ambivalent (See not using neutral)
Am I being trolled? :P
bessie wrote:I am a strong supporter of ordered town-scum lists, with no groupings, and no dead center neutrals.



Me trolling never :twisted:

On a serious note I agree that people who class everyone as neutral are not providing any useful content and is scummy. What I disagree with is putting a couple of people at netural being scummy. Sometimes you just don't have a read on people and it is better for town to state openly than come up with a reason to put them into a box.


This is the extracted important text.

Regards the point on me I don't really have anything to add. I stated my reasoning and thats that. I should point out that my play style is pretty much the opposite of Bessie. I play on instinct and don't tend to think things through too much. I try and state what I am thinking as I go. This was evident in werewolf where everyone found me scummy D1. Being permantly scummy was also my meta back when I used to play a lot.


Next push on me

Sabrar wrote:Probability of Maven being wam's scum-buddy just increased by a large margin. Called it.


We went back and forth on that one for a while.

You never answered whether you thought 2/15 was enough mentions of Maven for it to be out of the blue or not out of the blue.

At this statement I pretty much gave up on getting a proper case I could argue back to.

Sabrar wrote:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Sabrar, could you either explain why your vote on wam is serious, or point me to that explanation, please.
He is not a blue dragon.



And we get back to your current case as I didn't respond to you. I had tried and given up at that point.

Even you said I should stop replying (I assumed it was a joke)

Sabrar wrote:
wam wrote:@sabrar I know I should stop replying but oh well where a the fun in that.
Oh I agree completely.



I apologise if the above is not the most ordered thing in the world but I think it gets the point across.

Right so onto the important item from sabrar's previous post, is it town-town, town-scum, scum-scum.

My answer none of the above. I think the only explanation of the weird Sabrar behavior is an indie, more details below.

Not making your case is not town friendly, as http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=123890&start=160#p4276606 step 2 is a key part of being town. If you don't convince anyone of your case you are helping scum. Also the tunneling you are doing on me is not town friendly either. Town players need to consider more than one person. Also town are more likely to show doubts.

But I don't thing sabrar is scum either. I think it would be very easy for scum to be hiding right now watching this argument go down and chuckling. The weird playstyle has already attracted far more attention than I would expect scum to want either.

So indie, the question is what type. I can see arguments for all of them.

1) Jester, assuming Sabrar has a confident opposite read on me (i.e 100% I'm town). Push my lynch hard today get lynched for it tomorrow.
2) Unjester, with the weirdness unlikely to be doc target, trying to lead town be a big voice and attract the NK. Bonus points if I survive the day it would appeal to scum as it would make me look like Scum killing their biggest threat.
3) Survivor, This one I doubt but it could be a way to put some fun into a hard and slightly boring (IMO) role to play. The benefit of this is Sabrar most likely to be cop target, once they have come up indy it makes the claim and living through the game easier.
4) Lyncher, obvious one, lyncher with me as the target.

I am going to go for number 4, hence no vote.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Mon Dec 04, 2017 7:37 pm UTC

Oh by the way I have been pondering your alignment for a while
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 04, 2017 7:37 pm UTC

wam wrote:Even you said I should stop replying (I assumed it was a joke)

Sabrar wrote:
wam wrote:@sabrar I know I should stop replying but oh well where a the fun in that.
Oh I agree completely.

Big misunderstanding here, I encourage you to reply because it's fun.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Mon Dec 04, 2017 7:40 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
wam wrote:Even you said I should stop replying (I assumed it was a joke)

Sabrar wrote:
wam wrote:@sabrar I know I should stop replying but oh well where a the fun in that.
Oh I agree completely.

Big misunderstanding here, I encourage you to reply because it's fun.


I should really double check posts. Nope no mis-understanding, I forgot half the sentence when typing, was meant to be (I assumed it was a joke, or that you were commenting on the fun part).
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Mon Dec 04, 2017 7:43 pm UTC

The other item I wanted to talk about is this, from a gameplay perspective.

Sabrar wrote:
town!wam would try to engage me and find out my reason/motivation.


I agree with the above, my disagreement is that I feel I have already done that. However, from a gameplay perspective, doing this often gets treated as a further scum tell as it is "Defensive" and over reacting.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:01 pm UTC

With 10 players Lyncher makes sense (assuming s/he leaves the game if goal is accomplished). But you're out of luck, I'm not it. Also subtly trying to influence the Cop is not a townie tactic.

You never answered whether you thought 2/15 was enough mentions of Maven for it to be out of the blue or not out of the blue.
Maven was mentioned by others but not in the context of being replaced/mod-killed. You were the first to actually 'suggest' that action. So yes, I consider it out of the blue.

I don't feel you tried very hard to engage me directly. Apart from the discussion wrt Maven you didn't ask me on why I find you scummy, you just explained your meta. Also you nowhere indicated before that you thought I was indie, so continuing the trend this really feels like tphj to me.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:17 pm UTC

Yeah I think your grasping at straws now. I didn't try and influence the cop, I said that the weird play could be a way to get a cop result on yourself as a survivor.

Yeah and what we should do with maven is relevant when 2 people mention lurking being scummy. I was saying we shouldn't do anything and leave it to the mod.

Sabrar wrote:I don't feel you tried very hard to engage me directly. Apart from the discussion wrt Maven you didn't ask me on why I find you scummy, you just explained your meta. Also you nowhere indicated before that you thought I was indie, so continuing the trend this really feels like tphj to me.


The very random posting style may not have helped you get the response you want!

Right so I don't feel this is getting town anywhere.

So I am happy with a madge lynch or at a push a moody lynch.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:57 pm UTC

Taking the moral highground I see.

The very random posting style may not have helped you get the response you want!
Could be. Though you're presumably unfamiliar with my meta so theoretically should be more inclined to find out what I'm doing.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Mon Dec 04, 2017 9:01 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Taking the moral highground I see.

The very random posting style may not have helped you get the response you want!
Could be. Though you're presumably unfamiliar with my meta so theoretically should be more inclined to find out what I'm doing.


Would have done if everyone else had not said why is Sabrar being so goofy.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Maven89 » Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:14 pm UTC

Real sorry but I’m going to need a replacement

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby wam » Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:24 pm UTC

Maven89 wrote:Real sorry but I’m going to need a replacement


Sorry to hear that but your a bit late!
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby moody7277 » Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:30 pm UTC

@plytho: Your other question was when I decided I was pushing the button on my power, right? I did it about the same time as I voted for wam.

Regarding how much I want to talk about the claim; I'm riding a fine line here. Too little about it and town PR get a nasty surprise D2 when inconsistencies pop up. This as I have said is what occurred in the 2015 Secret Santa game. Too much info and scum will be ready to deploy countermeasures. This is the category I am currently putting wam in.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Madge » Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:49 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Madge picking moody as her lynch target is inconsistent with her reads list.


Not really. For starters I'm unlikely to vote today, and I looked at my reads list critically and determined that, as I said, wam was probably a biased read (so I don't want to vote based on that; but I'm too biased to put wam elsewhere, if that makes sense to you). Didn't think plytho reading a lot into flavour was a good reason for a vote and I thought my logic for putting bessie down was based on a gut read / possibly a response to everyone else calling her townie.

Meanwhile moody has a power which if true could stuff town up, so that means the "if he's town have we lost much?" criterion passes for him. Plytho/bessie/wam haven't claimed so have the benefit of being potential bulletproof cops rather than "wow that's a complicated redirector will we ever make sense of everything especially if scum has a redirector of their own which knowing secret santa is possible?"

@plytho: RE claims d2, I think it's a possibility yes. It depends how many people die tonight, how many results we have, etc. It has the potential to get a bit crazy.

moody7277 wrote:@plytho: Your other question was when I decided I was pushing the button on my power, right? I did it about the same time as I voted for wam.


I like that you decided to push the button, because it makes me feel better that it's my meta to claim early and claim often (admittedly I'm trying to change that meta as it's probably not optimal strategically, but I'll probably end up pushing my own proverbial button earlier than I should, but hey, one step at a time and there'll be other games and other buttons, to just completely ride the metaphor until itss wheels fall off).

I for one appreciate you caliming. Anything that means we can't trust night results means that we should be aware of it. Will also discourage scum from trying any gambits - if we have a lot of deaths overnight then we may well end up in LLYLO tomorrow and scum might otherwise feel lucky...
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby plytho » Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:55 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:@plytho: Your other question was when I decided I was pushing the button on my power, right? I did it about the same time as I voted for wam.
How did we convince you to push the button?
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Liri » Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:57 pm UTC

Somi and I were asked who we'd feel comfortable voting for. Don't have much of an answer.

It's been the Wam-Sabrar back-and-forth for a bit now, but I don't think I've learned much.

When suspicion-laying gets into meta reasons I'm (quite) lost.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:59 pm UTC

Okay updated reads time. This time, it definitely is not in alphabetical order... That may be a lie...

Notes are in spoiler.

bessie (previously town):
Spoiler:
3 posts since previous reads, 6, including confirmation, in total. Seems to be giving Sabrar lots of slack with his response. Typical style of responses directed towards Madge, moody (reaction to being auto-labelled town), wam (sarcasm), Sabrar (more sarcasm). FoS on Madge for wine. Acknowledges own sarcasm. Next post starts out in a much softer tone, but picks up aggression with responses to Sabrar and plytho. Interesting observations re. meta and plytho's obsession with it. Being helpful to Liri. Thinking about Sabrar's comment re. Madge is town.
bessie's tone continues to be what I'm used to from her. Hefty doses of sarcasm and aggression, mixed in with a little bit of joking about insignificant things ("Sabrar is a fluffy puppy"), and helping newbies (see her comments about Liri). Aside from her FoS of Madge though, there's not been much recent sign of what she thinks of other players. Still probably town though, but needs more opinions on players, and not just constant needling of them.

@bessie - please post an ordered list for us, since you enjoy them so much!

Liri (previously likely town):
Spoiler:
Enthusiastic for the game. Has read 3 past games. Glad to be getting newbie town tells out. Asks about no lynch D1. Brief thoughts about players. moody less scummy than before. Sabrar - going after people quickly. bessie - guarded due to consistency. No sense for wam or Madge. Likes plytho, mine, and somitomi's posts. Doesn't like making up reads on people.
Liri wrote:Bessie: is, I've gathered, very consistent across games. I suppose that makes me keep my guard up.
Bessie is pretty consistently town across all games. The last game where she was scum from the start was well over a year ago now, so hence the consistency. As noted above, I don't see anything different so far. I hope I'd be able to tell the difference if and when she does turn out to be scum, but if so, it isn't this game.

Liri wrote:I guess I'm also a little averse to just BSing reads on folks, but I haven't intended to be cagey or reticent about anything.

@anybody - is the above quote a scum (or indie) slip? It's probably a stretch, but Liri here is saying that he doesn't like making up reads on people. But if he's town, he doesn't need to make up reads. (Liri - if I've misunderstood your above statement, please clarify it).

I had a pretty strong townie feel previously, and aside from the highlighted slip, I'm feeling okay about Liri. He does need more concrete opinions on players, and a bit more clarity in who he actually finds scummy/townie (I'm assuming it's something like Town = {me, somitomi, plytho, moody}, Scum = {Sabrar?}, Neutral = everybody else, but it's not clear). Still slightly town, but slipping down in my confidence level.

@Liri - I think it would be helpful for me to understand your opinion on people with an ordered list, as described earlier, and demonstrated below.

Madge (previously slightly scummy):
Spoiler:
Likes my reads. Doesn't understand suspicion on Sabrar. Says that scum!Madge would claim unreasonably early, and follows this up with a brief discussion with Sabrar. Thinks moody shouldn't use his ability, but recommends him keeping it secret until tomorrow. Posts gutread ordered list, with wam (biased omgus), plytho (reading too much into flavour), and bessie (different somehow) as her top three scum candidates. Next post says she'd vote for moody, who was next. Doesn't intend to change her plan of not voting D1.
As others have already said, Madge didn't help herself with her wine-infused response to my previous read on her. On the other hand, her thoughts on moody's power seem pretty sensible (gives own opinion, but advises moody to make the decision himself secretly). Ultimately though, it's her more recent posts that I find interesting. I like that she decided to post an ordered list, and the way she wrote it sounded like she was aware it wasn't perfect, but at least she gave some explanations that didn't sound too biased for her reads on plytho and bessie. However, I am surprised by her suggestion that she'd vote for moody above the other three who were ahead of him in her town-scum list, especially given her other comments about his ability, where she seems to not be overly concerned by it. Moderately scummy.

@Madge - why would you prefer to moody who you put at 4th scummiest in your reads list, rather than any of the three above him?

moody (slightly scummy, with caveat):
Spoiler:
Responds to my question about his positioning, as "snap judgement". Finds Madge's comments filled with wine. Thinks indie confirmed by flavour. Doesn't rule out two faction kills. Disagrees with Sabrar that bessie's lack of Gojoe post is indicative of alignment. Claims mass-redirection power. Won't say more about it unless people ask him to "set it up". Looking for advice on using it. Thinks power was best revealed early on, partly to avoid later backlash. Says will claim next day. Highlights plytho and my reactions to it as good mixture of curiosity and suspicion, wam's as interested in the details. Decided to use redirection tonight. Has Madge, wam and Liri in votables pile. Explains Liri opinion as being too "circumferential". Thinks wam is trying to get details so that he can adjust his plan for N1, and votes him.
I previously found his early list without any explanations unhelpful, hence why I labelled him scummy, but given the early nature of the game, that was probably a bit unreasonable. I also found his early claim suspicious due to the concern about a scum gambit. However, ultimately, I think I'm coming down on it being a slight town indicator, given his subsequent discussion around it, especially in his most recent post. His opinions on Madge, and wam seem well-justified, Liri less so, but I can see what stands out to him there. Leaning town for now.

plytho (previously slight town lean):
Spoiler:
Thinks Amelia flavour indicates SK. Responds to moody's comments re. lack of Gojoe post from bessie. Asks wam about if he was being serious re. reason for bessie vote. Thinks more about Amelia maybe indicating survivor. Posts thoughts on all players: bessie - will likely read as town until picked up something supicious; me - sensible content, waiting to see if opinions match his own; sympathetic with Madge's changing meta comment; nothing really pinged him about moody's content; Sabrar might be meta-switching, doesn't understand his style; Liri and somitomi have low content; wam is being needlessly defensive about his vote on bessie; Maven absence might be suspicious. Asks moody if he wants to use his power tonight. Lynching is good for town. Doesn't know why moody claimed D1. Responds to bessie comments re. meta, and Sabrar's about my comment over not understanding the moody claim. Picks up on Madge selecting moody being inconsistent with her reads list. Asks moody lots of questions about his claim and its timing. Randomly brings up available knowledge about claims. Prods moody for responses.
The main thing that stands out to me about plytho is that I don't really have an idea of who he finds scummy versus who he finds townie, despite his comments earlier on most players. That being said, he did pick up on some things that pinged me too (such as Madge's choice of moody as her preferred vote), and shared my confusion over moody's claim. As noted before, when I see plytho posting similar things to my own thoughts, I tend to view him as townie, so this is a weak town read, but he does need to get down his opinions clearer on other players, or he'll slip to the scum side.

Sabrar (slightly town, or indie):
Spoiler:
Likes my reads. Doesn't find me scummy. Discussion with Madge about her proposed scum plan. Has actual town read on bessie. Asks about flavour. Town tell on bessie is because she didn't post in Gojoe. Lynching people is good. plytho is probably town. Vote on wam is serious. Madge is town. [None of those reads were initially explained]. Thinks Maven/wam team very likely, due to wam bringing up Maven out of the blue. Claims no posting restriction. Refuses to (at that time) explain reads requested by somitomi. Thinks bessie is overanalyzing plytho. Also does not give helpful read of wam. Asks me to believe his town-tell on bessie. Brings up mpolo's bus driver claim from Crossover in response to my comment over early claims. Has bessie/Mad/Liri as core town; me plytho likely town; moody, somitomi probably town, but who knows; wam as obvious scum; Maven as scum due to PoE/ties to wam. Responds to plytho over his mpolo reference. Trying not to spoon-feed people by refusing to elaborate on his reads. Explains one read on wam in response to wam asking. Claims not lyncher. Thinks wam is subtly trying to influence cop. Feels wam hasn't tried to engage him very hard.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. I don't understand what Sabrar is doing. His posting style is completely different to what I'm used to from him. I don't remember him ever being this unhelpful so consistently (sometimes he's unhelpful for a bit but elaborates more later). That being said, I really don't see this as being scum!Sabrar: scum!Sabrar would likely try to blend in as town, and lead town, as I'm sure I've seen him do before. He's also not sitting back like he did as scum in Crossover. I had him down as possible indie, and I still stand by that. I wouldn't be surprised if he is trying to draw some kind of night action, but I honestly have no idea what or why at this point.

One idle thought that crossed my mind: @Sabrar - you're not secretly hydra-ing with EGW are you? That might explain some of the weird style we're seeing.

@Sabrar - In response to your reference to mpolo's early claim in Crossover, I can't remember why mpolo claimed early then, nor can I remember how I actually responded at the time, but I don't understand why he did. The same goes for moody's claim, as noted.

somitomi (insufficient data):
Spoiler:
Posts early ordered list with some observations. Has me and bessie as top town, due to lots of observations with little to go on, and Madge as scummiest due to her scum!Madge strategy comments. Also has wam and moody on scum side of neutral, but no explanation. Comments on Sabrar's certainty re. his reads, and lack of explanation being different to usual. Asks for elaboration (does not receive any). Still mystified by Sabrar's conviction in next post. Plytho more active, so higher on list. Suspicions about moody's claim. Madge refusal to vote is red flag, but willing to cut slack over her list. Would vote for Madge, moody or wam.
Not posted a huge amount yet, but I am happy enough with what is there. It could be a quiet scum following others opinions on people, but for now I don't instinctively feel that way. Slightly townie. Could do with more interactions with others.

@somitomi - you have explained your concerns with Madge and moody. What about wam?

Suzaku/Maven: Not yet posted.

wam (neutral, pending more content):
Spoiler:
Got heavy survivor vibes from flavour. Groups {bessie, me, Liri, somitomi, Sabrar} as town, {Maven, moody, plytho} ambivalent, and Madge scum due to lots of wine. Asks for prod on Maven. Asks for details from Sabrar on his bessie town read. Updates flavour vibe to SK. Alternating kills feasible. Understands logic for Sabrar's town!bessie read. Vote on bessie was semi-serious. Didn't expect scum to pile on, but just in case. Really doesn't understand Madge's meta-claim as town. Votes her. Happy to leave Maven for mods. Explains own meta. Discusses use of neutral in reads lists. Big discussion with Sabrar over his comments about Maven. Accepts Sabrar's point as being fair, but states that he felt 2/15 recent comments sufficiently justifies it. Expected more details from moody, and wants him to claim first D2. Asks Madge who she'd vote for. Explains more reasons for voting for Madge (refusal to vote, list not meaning anything). Asks everyone to state who they would vote for. Asks moody for reasons to be voting wam. Wasn't pushing for more details from moody. Finds moody has pulled back from initial offers. Explores his own interaction with Sabrar, and concludes that Sabrar must be indie, for reasons similar to my own. Thinks lyncher most likely. Thinks that Sabrar is starting to grasp at straws. Happy with a Madge lynch, or possibly a moody lynch.
I've been musing a lot to myself about wam's alignment. Earlier, I felt like he went too defensive on his response to early suspicion (for example - see the 2/15 comment, when he could easily have pointed out that he was the one who actually brought it up earlier with the mod-prod request). However, more recently I feel like wam is coming off better in his interaction with Sabrar. Despite all this interaction, he hasn't completely dropped everything, and has still found time to comment on his scummy reads (Madge and moody), although it's getting drowned out by his focus on Sabrar. I'd like to see a lot more from him that isn't just discussions with Sabrar, and due to his early defensiveness, I'm placing him as slightly scummy. Almost certainly not scum-buddies with Sabrar or Madge though.

Town
Liri
bessie
somitomi
moody
plytho
Sabrar (maybe indie)
wam (moves up to around bessie if Madge flips scum)
Madge
Scum

Vote Madge

Ninja'ed by various people, but it's getting late, so I'm not going to bother reading them tonight.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:05 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:One idle thought that crossed my mind: @Sabrar - you're not secretly hydra-ing with EGW are you? That might explain some of the weird style we're seeing.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Sabrar » Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:28 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Regarding how much I want to talk about the claim; I'm riding a fine line here.

Btw I sympathize with this completely.

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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby moody7277 » Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:33 pm UTC

plytho wrote:
moody7277 wrote:@plytho: Your other question was when I decided I was pushing the button on my power, right? I did it about the same time as I voted for wam.
How did we convince you to push the button?


I had collected reactions from enough people that a. I think town is sufficiently braced for Winter is coming variant power results and b. I can use the reactions as read fodder.

plytho- curious about motivations and slightly suspicious. very townie
jimbob- suspicious of timing, his own studies of reactions to my claim*. townie
wam- very interested in full claim with associated mechanics**, suggests when I should claim. scummy
Madge- wary of redirectors in general, not pleased with timing, wants to vote me off it. she did suss out my main reason for early, so townie on this issue.

nothing about me from the other people

*this post obviously didn't affect my decision, but it does affect the read.

**unless he just wants the role's title, which is more or less useless
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Suzaku » Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:39 pm UTC

Well, I’m here.

Have been reading along but not closely following the thread so far. If anyone wanted to post a summary of the cases on the top, say, three scum candidates (excluding me, of course) that would be helpful.

I’m on my way to work now, so I’ll try to get caught up during the day and put down an initial proper post this evening.
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Re: Secret Santa Day 1 - Carol of the Elves

Postby Liri » Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:44 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Liri - I think it would be helpful for me to understand your opinion on people with an ordered list, as described earlier, and demonstrated below.

WRT the "making-up" (yeah, that was a poor choice of words) reads - it's still all synthetic, is what I intended to get across, not knowing for certain who other townies are. Not that my interpretations are contrived.

Jimbob, plytho, Somi are still feeling fine. Sabrar, Wam, and Madge are inching towards the scummier side for me, but that might be because of some bellicosity between them. Moody and Bessie I don't know about.
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