Refrigerator Mafia - Post Game - The Eternal Soup

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Peaceful Whale
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Peaceful Whale » Sat Aug 19, 2017 10:04 pm UTC

@bessie, oops, I just reread you cop role, so you can't be saved becuase you're macho right? But what about body guard. And what I mean by saved is who I target to defend for the night. I choose a new person each night, but can't choose them twice in a row.

Sigh, I had a big huge post, and for some reason, my phone's keyboard stopped working, and then the post disappeared.

Shorter version of lost post:

What if Sabar's scum? What if he's killed, and Bessie? What's our long term goal and plan. I may have missed it, if I did, just tell me and I'll look better. Flicky hasn't posted since...3 hours... never mind. Huery however...
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Peaceful Whale » Sat Aug 19, 2017 10:04 pm UTC

Fix'd
Peaceful Whale wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:Spell it out for me.
I-T

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Peaceful Whale » Sat Aug 19, 2017 10:04 pm UTC

Ninja' by flicky
Peaceful Whale wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:Spell it out for me.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Peaceful Whale » Sat Aug 19, 2017 10:08 pm UTC

Oh, I read jester rule as, if they die before D3... that makes sense. Sigh, maybe we should just kill me becuase of...
*reads noobs fora for the exact name*
Ahh, "muddy waters". At this point I think I'm causing more confusion than helping. And if you guys get rid of me, you would have narrowed down the potential scum people to choose from.

What if flick is scum, and they "marry" Bessie and Sabar and kill them? I feel like that power is very strong in the hands of scum.
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flicky1991 wrote:Spell it out for me.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 19, 2017 10:08 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: do you think scum-team could be flicky + Peaceful Whale?
I really need to think about the setup. What I'm having trouble with is plytho's role. I think we needed to start with two full mafia, your reason here is why I don't think we started with one full mafia. plytho's role would become full mafia if recruited. That's why I was thinking on D1 that maybe a mafia supporter was possible (doesn't join but wins with mafia). Or more likely that the setup was 7-2 or 6-2-1. I still don't see how to get a balanced 6-3 out of the flips and claims.

I'm not ignoring your questions, I'm trying to reply to content and do analysis at the same time, and I don't think very fast or in an organized manner. :)

Ninja'd a bunch.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Peaceful Whale » Sat Aug 19, 2017 10:10 pm UTC

Can you share thoughts? So maybe I can try to help a little?
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Aug 19, 2017 10:10 pm UTC

Peaceful Whale wrote:What if flick is scum, and they "marry" Bessie and Sabar and kill them?
As already mentioned, my wed ability only works on the lynch, not on nightkills.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 19, 2017 10:13 pm UTC

@Peaceful Whale: we are at a point called MYLO. If you're Town we cannot just lynch you to narrow down the field because we would most likely lose immediately.

@bessie: sure, take your time. Going to bed, will react in the morning-

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Peaceful Whale » Sat Aug 19, 2017 10:15 pm UTC

Thank you flicky for clarifying, I'm going to kinda lurk as I reread everything so I don't feel like such an idiot. :(
Peaceful Whale wrote:
flicky1991 wrote:Spell it out for me.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 19, 2017 10:58 pm UTC

Peaceful Whale wrote:@bessie, oops, I just reread you cop role, so you can't be saved becuase you're macho right?
Yep. I’m an arrogant, dominant, overconfident, aggressive jerk and view the offer of assistance from others as a threat to my identity and self worth.

And my cop role can’t accept protection from anyone else either.

Peaceful Whale wrote:What if flick is scum, and they "marry" Bessie and Sabar and kill them? I feel like that power is very strong in the hands of scum.
I feel that flicky’s power is very strong for a nine player game, let alone given to scum in a 6-3 setup. But he must have it because it is confirmed by two other players. Adding it to the list of things I am puzzling over regarding the setup.

flicky1991 wrote:As already mentioned, my wed ability only works on the lynch, not on nightkills.

moody7277 wrote:No kill, but if huery dies anytime between now and the start of D4, I go too, and vice versa.

Would you two like to get your stories straight? Heury, do you have anything to add to this?

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:00 pm UTC

Nothing for me to get straight - moody must have misunderstood the role.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby flicky1991 » Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:01 pm UTC

*misunderstood the notification of the ability being used on him. Whatever. I'm too tired for this right now.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby moody7277 » Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:09 pm UTC

flicky1991 wrote:Nothing for me to get straight - moody must have misunderstood the role.


Misread it is more what happened. It is end of D3 not start of D4.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:19 am UTC

Some more reactions to today’s content.

Sabrar wrote:- moody's claim of receiving notification of RB is suspicious
I would in general agree with you, but this is a newbie game and I think the players are being given a lot more information than they would receive in a normal game. The flips have full role pms, etc. I think though that this gets into the area of metagaming the game and the mod, which I already did once today and I feel I probably shouldn't have, as this is arguably against the spirit of the game.

Sabrar wrote:- Peaceful Whale's role is logical for Town to have
I’m not sure I agree with this. It’s not a full protection role. A townie still dies, and to protect who? A cop that can’t be protected, a bulletproof townie, a vanilla townie, a townie with a mass protect ability, a role that creates lover pairs, the town backup, or even the mafia recruit? Which of these roles is worth a one-for-one trade with another townie (the cop is N/A)? BP doesn’t need it. Maybe flicky? There’s no other investigative role, like a watcher or tracker. A doctor makes a lot more sense.

What I’m thinking about now. How is 6-3 balanced with one investigative role, a role that if successful is revealed to scum? And that role has to fight it out with scum the day after the investigation (very likely claim/counterclaim situation, with both lynched)?

More later, I'm just trying to post content as I have it because I may be busy later tonight.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 20, 2017 3:26 am UTC

bessie wrote:But I was thinking about it and I just can't believe there is any way we have 3 scum with a godfather.

If there is no GF then either moody is Town and was RB-d meaning scum has Roleblocker or you lied about copping him making you his scum-buddy. Therefore if you're Town then scum has either RB or GF (or possibly Redirector though unlikely in a newbie-friendly game). Balance continues to seem to be screwed up.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:17 am UTC

Setup (claims)
1 town noisy macho cop (verified)
1 bulletproof townie (verified)
1 town super backup
1 town bodyguard
1 town multi protective
1 town matchmaker
2 vanilla townies
1 mafia recruit, existence known to mafia (verified)

If moody and I are scum:
1 town noisy macho cop (verified)
1 bulletproof townie (verified)
1 town bodyguard
1 town matchmaker
2 vanilla townies
1 mafia recruit, existence known to mafia (verified)
1 mafia goon
1 mafia goon

I’m still having an issue with this setup. Town is underpowered, the bodyguard offers no kill protection (just transfers the kill), there is only one under powered investigative role.


Speculation:
1 town noisy macho cop (verified)
1 bulletproof townie (verified)
4 other townies
1 power mafia
1 mafia goon recruit (verified)
1 other independent

Biggest problem:
BoomFrog wrote:It is MYLO. Barring the interactions of powers, a mislynch now will mean town loses the game.
If we are currently 4-1-1, there is no way we can be at MYLO, and no possible lynch (even if it eliminates two townies and the independent is a survivor) that can automatically lose twenty dollars and my self respect for town.

I have been screwing around with setup spec for much of the evening and keep coming back to three mafia. I need to think about whether GF or RB is more likely. Additional question to ponder: if we are dealing with at least 1 power mafia, what liability might they have to maintain balance?

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 20, 2017 5:22 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:I've been leaving you hints since D2.
To satisfy my curiosity, could you please list them?

Spoiler:
http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4233240#p4233240
Tried to leave a subtle hint that I knew Sabrar was town.
Wow, there’s something I was trying to set up in this but it is going to be somewhat complicated and hard to explain. And probably wouldn’t make any sense to anyone but me so it’s a fail anyway.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4233264#p4233264
bessie’s updated setup speculation. I think it should be pretty clear from the wording that my role is on that list. And that it’s not the masons.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4233565#p4233565
Points again to my belief that we have a backup.

Also this:
bessie wrote:Sabrar – Town. I wasn’t sure until D2.

Town-scum list… is not going well. Basically I have Sabrar, and everyone else in a group that shifts every time I look at it.
Assertion that Sabrar is a firm town, unsure about everyone else. At that point I was trying to leave a breadcrumb in case I was killed N2. This is why I almost never do breadcrumbs. I suck at leaving and at finding them.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4233581#p4233581
Reposted my latest setup speculation.


**There was actually supposed to be another post here that I was working on, but didn’t post because the hammer happened while I was asleep. I wanted to reassert that deadline happens when I am at work, and that if I survived until D3, I wouldn’t be posting until at least six hours after deadline. I was expecting that if I investigated mafia, they would be able to post before me and would have the advantage of getting their claim up first. I was also planning in this post to make sure I left something about my town result on Sabrar that would be unambiguous after my flip.


http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4234070#p4234070
Basically told you I was super backup. Hinted I knew moody or heury was town.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4234088#p4234088
Same.
bessie wrote:I think what will happen with a full claim is that we will probably narrow it down to two lynch candidates, and it will be a coin toss anyway unless we continue scumhunting today.
Coin toss reference. FMPOV, there is at least one town in [moody, heury]. Because of the lovers, they’re not preferred lynch targets. FMPOV, there is at least one scum in [Peaceful Whale, flicky]. Hence the coin toss.

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4234091#p4234091
Told Sabrar he had everything you needed to deduce my role (or I thought he did).

http://forums.xkcd.com/viewtopic.php?p=4234094#p4234094
Reason I was good with your plan is that to me you are confirmed town. Do you really think I would trust you to dictate the claim order, without even arguing about it, if you were not confirmed to me?

bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Now I know what your claimed role will be and it surprises me quite a bit, though on some level it makes sense.
I am interested in knowing what did you thought my role was.
Quid pro quo?

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 20, 2017 5:57 am UTC

@bessie: thanks. I also suck at finding breadcrumbs if not actively looking for them so these went right over my head. Re: you allowing me to dictate claim-order: you might if you're sheeping me (which would be consistent with your claim).
I'm fairly certain you are Town because of multiple reasons, like my read of your analysis earlier or having a single weak investigative role without backup or anything else doesn't feel right.
Just one question: why did you state at the beginning of D2 without anyone prompting you that you had nothing to share? That phrase - while accurate with those specific words - normally implies a bit more, i.e. no results whatsoever.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 20, 2017 5:58 am UTC

EBWOP

At first I thought you were the matchmaker and it being a unique role meant that your place in the claim-order was irrelevant.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 20, 2017 6:23 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Just one question: why did you state at the beginning of D2 without anyone prompting you that you had nothing to share? That phrase - while accurate with those specific words - normally implies a bit more, i.e. no results whatsoever.
It’s convention for everyone to log in and post a night result declaration at their first opportunity, even if they’re busy and won’t be making a real post for a few hours. We weren’t really following it, but I didn’t want everyone waiting for my possible result (which is why we usually make that post); it was already about 10 hours into D2 and another couple hours before I got back to the game. I selected "nothing to share" over "no results to share" purposely because I had results that I didn't want to share. I had one town cop result, and revealing it would ensure I was the NK target (which happened anyway).

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 20, 2017 6:35 am UTC

I fully understand why you chose that wording but as you also mention it we were not following the convention so it looked a bit out-of-place. Doesn't really matter.
Have you come to any conclusions regarding RB/GF and whether a {flicky,PW} scum-team is possible?

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D1 - The Purge Begins

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:53 am UTC

Znirk wrote:TOWN
Bessie, Laserguy
Sabrar, Moody
Plytho
Whale, Flicky
Heury
SCUM
This was Znirk's original list, he later found me suspicious but was satisfied with my answer.

@bessie: any idea why Znirk would investigate me instead of someone he found scummy? I'm mainly asking because it bothers me that you would have received his result on me, as backups don't usually work like that.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:14 pm UTC

@bessie: any idea why you were targeted for the NK?

- it can't be recruit-hunting if we agree that 1 Mafia + 2 Recruit does not work
- I would assume it wasn't PR-hunting because of this and scum couldn't have realized that backup!you received Cop-result because that's not how the role usually works.
- only thing remaining would be your reads, however your last list was shifting.

If I could clear you and we could agree that {flicky,PW} does not work as scum-team then my original plan would work, but I'm also open to alternatives.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:58 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I fully understand why you chose that wording but as you also mention it we were not following the convention so it looked a bit out-of-place.
Well perhaps I’m really Lawful Neutral, and not Neutral Evil as you assume me to be.

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: any idea why Znirk would investigate me instead of someone he found scummy? I'm mainly asking because it bothers me that you would have received his result on me, as backups don't usually work like that.
I don’t know why Znirk investigated you. I know why I would have investigated you, but this question isn’t about me me me, or is it?

Getting the result surprised me too for the same reason. And I almost used it in my examples of how this game was a little different from the usual games here, but then I didn’t. Maybe see this for a similar example.
BoomFrog wrote:I assume you mean save them from the night-kill. A backup role that included inheriting bullet-proof would get the power immediately, so would be protected that night.
If you’re concerned, you can ask BoomFrog. He might answer it; he answered the bulletproof question.

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: any idea why you were targeted for the NK?
Perhaps others are better at finding breadcrumbs than you? And whether or not I had a N1 cop result is irrelevant, because I would have a N2 cop result. (And if I had a N1 cop result it was most likely town anyway). Or maybe someone out there actually thinks I'm an awesome player and killed me out of sheer terror of my scumhunting skills? Why do you never consider this as a possibility?

Sabrar wrote:If I could clear you and we could agree that {flicky,PW} does not work as scum-team then my original plan would work, but I'm also open to alternatives.
Interesting that you keep framing this as an exercise to clear me. Because if we have a godfather, then I need to clear you. And if there is a mafia roleblocker, it is your vanilla town role that looks unbalanced.

Everyone else is welcome to contribute to the conversation.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Peaceful Whale » Sun Aug 20, 2017 5:08 pm UTC

How, you guys are the veterans, the only thing that I've got to add, is I don't think Sabar is vannilla, becuase if he is, scum is WAY unbalanced.

What does he have to hide?

Is he some weird independent?
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby moody7277 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 5:32 pm UTC

Peaceful Whale wrote:How, you guys are the veterans, the only thing that I've got to add, is I don't think Sabar is vannilla, becuase if he is, scum is WAY unbalanced.

What does he have to hide?

Is he some weird independent?


If Sabrar is lying at all about his role, he's scum. We've already established that the setup isn't 4 town, 1 scum, 1 independent since in that case we could lynch town and still have a chance to win.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 20, 2017 5:33 pm UTC

@Peaceful Whale: because we're at MYLO there must be exactly 2 scum-aligned players alive. plytho makes 3. If there's an indie who is not pro-town then that makes the setup 5-3-1 (grouping scum together). That never makes for a balanced game, plus it's possibly MYLO right from the start.
Also why don't you question heury being Vanilla? Is he your scum-buddy?

@bessie: you should put aside your Cop result on me (and moody) and scum-hunt like you normally do.
I'm quite sure about heury being scum at the moment with either Peaceful Whale or moody as his scum-buddy. That makes a lot of my previous assumptions invalid but is the best I can come up with given the circumstances.
Or maybe someone out there actually thinks I'm an awesome player and killed me out of sheer terror of my scumhunting skills? Why do you never consider this as a possibility?
Because I go into every night with the sure knowledge that I will be NK-d.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Peaceful Whale » Sun Aug 20, 2017 5:44 pm UTC

Well, you're the one making the plan, Bessie wanted me to add something to the conversation. Honestly it is probably huery that is lying. I didn't suspect anyone would take me serious. I hope Sabar is town. But if both Sabar and Bessie are scum...(don't take me seriously, it is very unlikely)
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flicky1991 wrote:Spell it out for me.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby flicky1991 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 6:04 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I'm quite sure about heury being scum at the moment with either Peaceful Whale or moody as his scum-buddy.
Could you give us a taste if your logic? Sorry if I missed it somewhere.
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby flicky1991 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 6:04 pm UTC

*of
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 20, 2017 6:12 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: you should put aside your Cop result on me (and moody) and scum-hunt like you normally do.
I believe I already expressed concern that a mass claim might derail scum hunting here. And I don’t think I ever stopped scumhunting.

Peaceful Whale wrote:Well, you're the one making the plan, Bessie wanted me to add something to the conversation. Honestly it is probably huery that is lying. I didn't suspect anyone would take me serious. I hope Sabar is town. But if both Sabar and Bessie are scum...(don't take me seriously, it is very unlikely)
Remember, the more you talk, the more it helps town. So if you’re town, you’re doing it right. And it is completely valid for town!Peaceful Whale to suspect that Sabrar and bessie are the mafia team. But you need to go through our content and find examples that feel scummy, like we are mafia working together, or that one of us (or heury) is scum independent of the others. It is much too late to throw an accusation out there and see if it sticks. This is D3, not D1.

Where I’m at.

flicky has to be telling the truth about his matchmaking power(note: there may be other aspects he hasn’t revealed).

Peaceful Whale’s claim seems the most unlikely to me. See this.

If we’re sure heury or moody is scum, this is probably a safe lynch. D3 is 6-2, N3 is 4-1, D4 is 3-1.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 20, 2017 6:17 pm UTC

bessie wrote:D3 is 6-2, N3 is 4-1, D4 is 3-1.
You mean 4-2, 3-1 and 2-1, right?

flicky1991 wrote:Could you give us a taste of your logic? Sorry if I missed it somewhere.
- Really doubt we have 2 VT-s.
- your ability almost surely makes you town.
- bessie is almost surely town.
- either PW or moody is telling the truth, otherwise we have a macho Cop with no protection abilities and scum having fake-claims as protective roles.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 20, 2017 6:27 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:D3 is 6-2, N3 is 4-1, D4 is 3-1.
You mean 4-2, 3-1 and 2-1, right?
Yes sorry, I’m trying to think of too many things at once.

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moody7277
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby moody7277 » Sun Aug 20, 2017 6:27 pm UTC

If I could be sure that heury was scum, I'd say lynch away and cheer from the afterlife. But there's that nagging 30% hanging and the possibility of a Sabrar-PW scum team (the only possibility left with town!heury and given my opinions of bessie and flicky). Yes, Sabrar said that was based on random selection, but reads aren't the same as hard data.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Peaceful Whale
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Peaceful Whale » Sun Aug 20, 2017 7:05 pm UTC

At this point, I'm pretty certain that Sabar is town, if he isn't... well we're doomed. As he's the last on we would lynch. Same with Bessie. I'm slightly surprised that scum didn't cause mischief by counter claiming Bessie's role. Is this something scum could have done? Or should have? I'm trying to logic out scum's actions. And why their was no night kill. I'm think that maybe moody wasn't roleblocked... that makes sense, it would explain the no kill. Or scum hit Bessie. I think that maybe this game is too noob friendly, how would moody know he was roleblocked, and scum knows they've been found out? Could it be Bessie trying to make the scum at ease? No, we've seen the role pm... and then no doctor, but bodyguard... Bessie does have a nice role. So does flicky and moody. But I don't like the two VT... and if I were someone else, I wouldn't like the apple role either.

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Sabrar
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 20, 2017 8:20 pm UTC

Peaceful Whale wrote:I'm slightly surprised that scum didn't cause mischief by counter claiming Bessie's role. Is this something scum could have done? Or should have?
If bessie is town then scum claimed before her and as they didn't know what bessie's role was they couldn't have counterclaimed it. Perfect example why townie looking players should claim last.

Peaceful Whale wrote:I'm think that maybe moody wasn't roleblocked... that makes sense, it would explain the no kill.
If moody wasn't rb-d then he is lying therefore scum therefore not the reason of the no kill (unless scum withheld).

Peaceful Whale wrote:how would moody know he was roleblocked
This is the big question. My guess would be noisy scum who targeted me N1 (assuming town!moody).

bessie wrote:If you’re concerned, you can ask BoomFrog. He might answer it; he answered the bulletproof question.
Thank you for reminding me, I had problems how to phrase the question.

Would the same backup who appears in this hypothetical example receive a Cop's result the same night that said Cop is killed?

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:45 pm UTC

Some rambling thoughts, typing as I'm thinking. I’ll be working on this tonight but I want to catch Sabrar before he goes to sleep.

If moody is scum and bessie is town:
-Mafia NK target was bessie. Why? Suspect she is cop, therefore preferred target + can’t be protected. Or she is totally awesome and they need her dead. :D
-moody is GF.
-moody heard bessie investigate him N2. Knows she is noisy cop, who cares, she’s dead anyway. Would have been nice to have bessie clear moody though.
-Need to think about the Saran Wrap claim some more. He did bait me into revealing I used up the BP, but it wasn’t that hard to figure out.

If moody is scum, moody’s partner is Sabrar, flicky, heury, or Peaceful Whale.
- flicky - Likely town because power. Also, probably would not have targeted his scum partner. Eliminated.
- Sabrar – Sabrar would also be GF or bessie naïve. Too bastard. Eliminated.
- heury – heury was suspiciously surprised that the NK didn’t go through. Did not catch moody’s error re lover mechanic, see this.
- Peaceful Whale – Game read leans newbie scum. Doubtful of role claim, see this . Even more doubtful of N2 action claim, see this, and this.

heuristically_alone wrote:I am pudding. Vanilla towie. I have no night action, and the only night action that has been taken place on me is last night's that made me lovers with Moody.

Heury, how did you know this? The cop had not yet claimed. Neither had Sabrar, flicky, or Peaceful Whale (tracker, watcher, etc). How did you know that you weren’t copped?

More in a bit.

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Sabrar
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:57 pm UTC

Good timing. Just realized while reading through that GF makes Cop even weaker as if N1 Cop targets GF then he gets outted to scum before he can produce any good results. Makes it less likely to have it in the game.

And with that I'm off.

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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby bessie » Mon Aug 21, 2017 3:28 am UTC

Some more rambling thoughts. I am trying to put my limited time toward producing content and analysis, not in to organization.

The thing that is currently in my thoughts: plytho’s role pm. He would have been recruited if he targeted mafia or if mafia targeted him. This was almost certainly going to be a guaranteed recruit with no jailer (very small chance plytho could be blocked by mafia roleblocker, and I’m still unclear if moody’s protection is more doctor or jailer). Why not mafia would kill him if they targeted him? There has to be something we are missing in the setup, some other liability for mafia somewhere. How does vanilla town even work with this setup, unless there is some hidden aspect to the VT role (would this possibly fit with low bastardry)?


Continuing from previous thoughts.

If Sabrar is scum and bessie is town:
-Mafia N2 kill target was bessie. Why? See scum!moody analysis. Would also explain why Sabrar is still alive.
-Sabrar is GF.
-Sabrar heard Znirk investigate him N1. Knows Znirk was noisy cop, who cares, he’s dead anyway. Would have been nice to have Znirk clear Sabrar though.
-moody is town (see below) and is telling truth about roleblock. Need to think about the Saran Wrap claim some more.

If Sabrar is scum, Sabrar’s partner is moody, flicky, heury, or Peaceful Whale.
- flicky – flicky’s power still too powerful for scum.
- moody – moody would also be GF or bessie naïve. Too bastard. Eliminated.
- heury – see scum!moody analysis.
- Peaceful Whale – see scum!moody analysis.


Things I’m thinking about from Sabrar reread:

Sabrar made an early town meta read on Peaceful Whale, based on Peaceful Whale’s content in X-Men. See here.

These comments re my backup claim:
Sabrar wrote:Now I know what your claimed role will be and it surprises me quite a bit, though on some level it makes sense.

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: after you said you had 2 results I knew you'd claim Super Backup.

Sabrar claimed he knew I was the backup cop when I announced I had two results. Then how do these later comments fit with the earlier claim?
Sabrar wrote:@bessie: any idea why Znirk would investigate me instead of someone he found scummy? I'm mainly asking because it bothers me that you would have received his result on me, as backups don't usually work like that.

Sabrar wrote:- I would assume it wasn't PR-hunting because of this and scum couldn't have realized that backup!you received Cop-result because that's not how the role usually works.

Why suspicious of my claim now when it was obvious to you before? Is it because now you need to throw some suspicion on me?

For completeness, what if bessie is scum?
What happened to the N2 night kill?
-Blocked by town!moody (if his power is more jailer-like than doctor-like). Unlikely, town!moody wouldn’t lie about roleblock.
-Blocked by town!Peaceful Whale. Not possible, Peaceful Whale would be dead.

What if flicky is scum?
flicky has to be telling the truth about his matchmaking power. This would be so unbalanced that I can’t see any way this is likely except in a bastard game.

moody, was you protection doctor-like or jailer-like?

Back in a while with analysis of heury and Peaceful Whale, my main scum picks.

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Sabrar
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Re: Refrigerator Mafia - D3 - Salt and Sugar Preserve Us

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:12 am UTC

bessie wrote:Sabrar claimed he knew I was the backup cop when I announced I had two results. Then how do these later comments fit with the earlier claim?
...
Why suspicious of my claim now when it was obvious to you before?
1. Not exactly, I said that I knew you would claim super backup. I hadn't accepted it at face value.
2. When you said 2 results I took it for 1 Cop + 1 lost BP protection. I didn't think you had 2 Cop results and it surprised me when you claimed that part.


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