X-Men Mafia: Resolution

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Sabrar
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 05, 2017 7:23 am UTC

I think so, yes.

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bessie
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 05, 2017 7:25 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:You're doing a really bad job finding flaws in my plan, I thought you had better arguments.
OK, I admit to being sluggish, I haven’t had time to thoroughly dissect your two plans yet. My two examples were for illustrative purposes only (I thought that was implied by the brevity). It’s going to take me a while to go through them, which is why you haven’t seen me accept or reject anything outright. And I got distracted tonight thinking about the possibilities of BoomFrog’s power. I can be easily distracted.

I will say that I would probably be more favorable to your plan if the basis of your plan was lynching someone because they were actually acting scummy, instead of lynching someone who has not been acting scummy (like adnapemit) just because it is convenient to the plan to eliminate their power.

mpolo wrote:If moody is scum, then he only has one kill, right? So he is essentially de-powered as scum, still has a vig-shot if town?
I assume mafia has access to the factional kill every night.

Ninja'd by Sabrar. Did I miss something about the mafia kill?

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bessie
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 05, 2017 7:28 am UTC

Never mind, you mean one kill per night, as opposed to the mafia kill and Cyclops kill (which can only be used by itself).

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Sabrar
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 05, 2017 10:06 am UTC

bessie wrote:It’s going to take me a while to go through them, which is why you haven’t seen me accept or reject anything outright.

Let me try to help you by explaining the carnage plan in detail (because it's a really short one).

Basic stuff:
- we have exactly 1 scum remaining
- therefore if 2 players claim the same then at least one of them is town at the claim must be true

- mpolo is confirmed Beast because both heury and adnapemit claim to have received the item and there is no counterclaim
- moody is confirmed Cyclops because your Siphon has first priority and you claim to have stolen Optic Blast from him
- adnapemit is confirmed Gambit because heury claims to have received no result N2 which can only happen if he was blocked (not redirected)
- bessie is confirmed Rogue because moody tried to shoot but still has it available which means he must have been blocked (not redirected)

- heury is not confirmed Wolverine because he could have false-claimed it, however he claimed a very unlikely result D2 that could have been easily contradicted by me targeting anyone else

- mpolo is mechanically confirmed Town because creating an item leaves him with no action to kill BoomFrog N1
- I'm not mechanically cleared as town just extremely close to it

Assume that I am town and heury is Wolverine. Quoting the plan:

D3: lynch adnapemit

N3:
- moody kills heury
- bessie kills moody
- doesn't really matter what the rest of us do except that we should not protect either heury or moody

Analysis:
- we have 4 potential cases, one for each scum-suspect.

1. adnapemit is scum: no N3 occurs, we win D3
2. heury is scum: Jubilee is dead so Wolverine has no protection. Sniffing doesn't help him, can't target himself with medkit. No way for him to avoid getting killed by moody, he can kill someone but that still leaves 2 townies alive and we win N3.
3. moody is scum: scum!Cyclops is basically Vanilla Goon at this point, he can't avoid getting killed by bessie. 3 townies are left alive, we win N3.
4. bessie is scum: whatever bessie does at least 2 townies will remain alive. This is the only scenario where game doesn't end N3, so if D4 happens we know that bessie must be scum and lynch her.

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Sabrar
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 05, 2017 1:40 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Sabrar is not trying to eliminate threats to town, but is proposing plans which anticipate eliminating threats indirectly instead of scumhunting.
True, in the sense that my reads are hit and miss (see Shakespeare) and I prefer an automatic win using logic rather than relying on scumhunting. I've made this very clear from the beginning (spoilered part).

bessie wrote:Sabrar has a town read made early in the game that is influencing his assessment.
Possibly true.

bessie wrote:Sabrar is unable to accept that his early read might be incorrect, and is unwilling to directly scum hunt and eliminate this person, and is only willing to eliminate him indirectly as part of a larger plan.
The premise is false therefore your conclusion is meaningless. If I were unable to accept my read about heury being incorrect then I wouldn't have suggested a plan where he is the first to die.

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bessie
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 05, 2017 4:16 pm UTC

Ok, let’s accept your plan as mechanically flawless. It still depends on scum taking certain actions. What if scum withholds the kill? What if scum!bessie protects heury just for a laugh? (I’m still going through your plan trying to find an actual flaw.) But I think you need to try to understand why town!adnapemit is reluctant to fall on the sword.

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Sabrar is unable to accept that his early read might be incorrect, and is unwilling to directly scum hunt and eliminate this person, and is only willing to eliminate him indirectly as part of a larger plan.
The premise is false therefore your conclusion is meaningless. If I were unable to accept my read about heury being incorrect then I wouldn't have suggested a plan where he is the first to die.
My premise may be false, but that is irrelevant. Your evidence is incorrect. The long plan does not depend on your scum or town reads. The plan requires heury to die regardless of his alignment. It's just quicker if he is scum.

Sabrar, who do you think is scum?

Anyone else want to join the conversation, or is everyone content watching Sabrar and I debate this for the rest of the day?

(Going out for a few hours, and don't have time for more now.)

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 05, 2017 4:41 pm UTC

bessie wrote:What if scum withholds the kill?
Then scum either dies or we go to D4 because you're scum and we lynch you, as per plan.

bessie wrote:What if scum!bessie protects heury just for a laugh?
Then we go to D4 and lynch you, as per plan.

bessie wrote:Your evidence is incorrect. The long plan does not depend on your scum or town reads. The plan requires heury to die regardless of his alignment.
Okay, then we have a different understanding on what me being unable to accept the incorrectness of my read means.

bessie wrote:Sabrar, who do you think is scum?
I think it's you but this is extremely influenced by the fact that none of the others are actually participating in the discussion and you seem unreasonably stubborn in opposing it.

Let's agree to be Masons next time we're both town. :D

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 05, 2017 6:11 pm UTC

Let's give in to bessie's request and post some of my thoughts on others:

moody: Gopher of Pern had one post. Spends a lot of time to discuss what roles are bad in hands of scum which I feel wasn't really relevant. Quotes a lot and has shortish comments which appear to come from townie perspective but at this point is not really alignment-indicative.
moody's read list is mainly just summing up content, has little explanation for the actual reads. Otherwise his tone looks townie to me, his lack of content is scummy. He does not try to scum-hunt, except for going for the agreed-upon lynch on somitomi. Verdict: on the scummy side of neutral.

adnapemit: so basically there are two possibilities here. Either Peaceful Whale is truly a newbie player or an experienced one who lied throughout the game and sold being newbie very hard. I mean this is such a huge mistake to make from anyone who actually follows the thread. Couple that with all the scummy things he said and I was ~80% convinced he was Jester. Then comes this together with the immediately next post which seems a lot more put together than anything else before. The role-pm quote is either mistake from complete newbie or disgusting angle-shooting from experienced scum. I'm really hoping for the former. Asking for modkill again does not make sense from any alignment, but it could come from either newbie who is fed up with the game or another angle-shooting from scum. This is not something I necessarily wanted to bring out in the open (and therefore haven't mentioned before) but it's just how I felt during the whole game.
adnapemit's read on LaserGuy is focused solely on the Storm-lynch and potentially busses him pretty hard based on that, however she doesn't vote D1. D2 does not perform any scum-hunting, agreeing readily with my plan. Waiting on her analysis she promised earlier. Verdict: I'm not reading adnapemit as anything, I'm about 95% sure that Peaceful Whale was newbie town but the little voice inside my head keeps nagging me about that last 5%.

I may have time to re-read heury today as well, we'll see.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 05, 2017 7:38 pm UTC

heury: starts with not reading the setup and assumes standard 7-2. I consider this to be an honest mistake, however now that we know that there is no cult I could also see it as mafia!heury not reading it. His 'analysis' on Wolverine having to be town and Cyclops being Mafia makes sense from either alignment, though I think it's more probably coming from town!heury. Overall that whole first post in its entirety indicates to me that heury is town as I don't really see scum!heury being that bold. This is a townie reaction. LaserGuy votes him and I've already said why I think it's not bussing. D2 this is consistent with later claim. His explanation on not voting and the mistakes he makes look very suspicious. However this is the only thing that I find scummy in his content and I think the other points outweigh it. Verdict: most likely town.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby bessie » Sat Aug 05, 2017 8:52 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Sabrar, who do you think is scum?
I think it's you but this is extremely influenced by the fact that none of the others are actually participating in the discussion and you seem unreasonably stubborn in opposing it.
Me stubborn? Have you been talking to my boss?

Participation…that’s a thorny issue. The very general common consensus is that townie players tend to participate more, and scummier players tend to lurk more. Briefly for the benefit of the newbies that are following along, the more you talk, the greater the chance that if you’re scum you will make a slip. Of course there is always the risk that even if you’re town, the more you talk, the greater the chance that you will say something that will be interpreted as scummy and you will be lynched for it, etc. There are some players that talk a lot (and some that don’t) regardless of alignment. Some of them are playing this game. This is a turbo and on top of that this is a weekend, so this meta difference is more exaggerated than usual. Ok I’ll stop because this has become active lurking but as already stated I get easily distracted. And I can’t remember where I was going with this. Maybe it will come back to me.

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Sabrar is not trying to eliminate threats to town, but is proposing plans which anticipate eliminating threats indirectly instead of scumhunting.
True, in the sense that my reads are hit and miss (see Shakespeare) and I prefer an automatic win using logic rather than relying on scumhunting. I've made this very clear from the beginning (spoilered part).
Hey Sabrar, why’d you choose that link? Wanted an excuse to reference WoT1, again?

I don’t agree with your read of heury, but frankly at this point I’m wondering if I’m doing the same thing that I’m accusing you of doing (having an early read and interpreting all game content to fit that read). I want to say no, and that my read of heury here is accurate. Will think about this more.

Your reads on moody and adnapemit align closely with mine. Too closely. It’s like we think alike. :shock: With moody, there are pieces of the puzzle that really shouldn’t influence my read (lack of D1 content, the discontinuity from replacing, etc) but because I’m only human they do. Looking at his D2 content the thing that I find most suspicious is that he so readily went along with the plan, possibly sacrificing his one-shot power in the process, and not asking the mod about the status of his power before Sabrar did. I still want to read him as town though.

With adnapemit, all I can say is that I have unfortunately had the same unpleasant thoughts as you re: Peaceful Whale, and I’m trying hard to put them aside, but hey, still human. Part of it is that again I find it really hard to believe a newbie would sign up for a game without having a better idea what they were signing up for (Newbies, don’t take this wrong. We very much want you to play! Please sign up for a game! But maybe let us know that you’re new and if there is enough interest in a newbie game, some kind mod will probably design one for you, as Madge did with Bin Chicken mafia.). I was so um, disappointed when I made this post. Deleting a bit here, this is a discussion for another time and place. I’m not seeing adnapemit as scummy but FMPOV heury, moody, or adnapemit is scum so I need to make a thorough reread.

It would help a lot if we had some more content! Sabrar, why don’t you quit lurking and make a post? :P

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sat Aug 05, 2017 9:11 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Hey Sabrar, why’d you choose that link? Wanted an excuse to reference WoT1, again?
I don't need an excuse. It's a similar situation (even putting actual players aside) and it's where I spell things out most clearly.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby moody7277 » Sat Aug 05, 2017 11:16 pm UTC

Okay, so Sabrar being the Man with the Plan looks to want control of the game. Okay if he's town, otherwise not so hot; I'd give it about a 80/20 split at this point. Bessie being appropriately skeptical is mostly townie, but could also be scum not wanting to be lead down the road to the gallows. As for the plan itself, not a big fan of ones where I have to die to prove I'm town, but c'est la guerre.

Scummiest read is still huery, and if I had my druthers (as I'm sure I won't) he would be facing ruby death tonight.
The story of my life in xkcdmafia:

Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 06, 2017 2:02 am UTC

Brief post before I go out, quite possibly has mistakes. Sorry Sabrar, I won’t be around to chat if you can’t sleep again.

moody7277 wrote:Scummiest read is still huery, and if I had my druthers (as I'm sure I won't) he would be facing ruby death tonight.

Heury gets zapped in the "Mass Carnage Plan":
Sabrar wrote:D3: lynch adnapemit

N3:
- moody kills heury
- bessie kills moody
- doesn't really matter what the rest of us do except that we should not protect either heury or moody


Analysis:
If bessie is scum she can kill (+ use leech?) moody/Sabrar/mpolo. Endgame is bessie + 2 of moody, mpolo, Sabrar (not good odds bessie can turn this one). What if bessie blocks moody and saves heury? Yeah right.

If Heury is scum he can kill whomever (me, Sabrar, mpolo) and it won’t matter, he’s dead.

If moody is scum he should kill me or Sabrar, probably Sabrar (small chance Sabrar protects me). Nevermind, doesn’t matter, moody is dead.

If Sabrar is scum, he protects heury (and kills mpolo? Need to check on this.). D4 is Sabrar, bessie, heury, (mpolo). Can Sabrar convince heury that bessie is scum? Probably.

Note: Heury can protect mpolo, why did Sabrar leave that out? mpolo is confirmed town. Town!bessie can’t use leech + optic blast (assume).

Sabrar, I hope you understand why I’m wary of the plan. If you’re town it looks good. If you’re scum, it’s you vs. me and heury decides the game.

To do: Reread. Rethink. I need to be certain there is no way Sabrar can be scum.


There is a twisted part of me that would like to be in a three way gunfight with Sabrar at endgame… but not this one. :twisted:

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 06, 2017 4:04 am UTC

bessie wrote:If Sabrar is scum, he protects heury (and kills mpolo? Need to check on this.). D4 is Sabrar, bessie, heury, (mpolo). Can Sabrar convince heury that bessie is scum? Probably.

Note: Heury can protect mpolo, why did Sabrar leave that out? mpolo is confirmed town. Town!bessie can’t use leech + optic blast (assume).

Sabrar, I hope you understand why I’m wary of the plan. If you’re town it looks good. If you’re scum, it’s you vs. me and heury decides the game.

Since one of the key assumptions for the plan was that I'm town I didn't feel the need to go into details in case I'm not. If I'm scum the plan guarantees my win as all I have to do is withhold resulting in the same D4 scenario as if bessie were scum. I could even try to win N3 by killing bessie, leaving a 1-1 endgame. Why would I protect heury?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby adnapemit » Sun Aug 06, 2017 4:49 am UTC

Info used to make decisions:
Spoiler:
-The night kill was blocked or withheld.
-Sabrar is telling the truth about N1 otherwise bessie and/or heury is lying but there is only one scum left.
-somitomi was Nightcrawler so ninja is remove as possibility
-somitomi got town result on mpolo
-I got town result on bessie
-mpolo made items and gave them away.
-moody and heury had chat with LaserGuy
-I blocked heury last night

Votes at end of day 1
Laserguy - 4 (mpolo, BoomFrog, Sabrar, bessie)
mpolo - 3 (somitomi, heuristically_alone, Laserguy)

Votes for day 2
Somitomi - 3 (Heuristically_Alone, moody7277, bessie)

Most likely town:
Sabrar

Still probably town with very small chance of godfather:
bessie
Mpolo

Really strategic scum or town:
moody

Most likely scum:
heuristically_alone

Preferred lynch order:
Heury
Moody
Bessie
Mpolo
Sabrar

I like that Sabrar is trying to make it a certain town win but this just seems so much easier:
Vote heuristically_alone
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby adnapemit » Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:16 am UTC

Also if you want to lynch me just so you can NK bessie then I understand....
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:17 am UTC

@adnapemit:
- Beast cannot create item and perform any other action on the same night. It is simply impossible for mpolo to have killed BoomFrog.
- BoomFrog could theoretically have targeted bessie and scum!me could have redirected or blocked heury. I'm not 100% cleared, that's the only reason I'm still arguing with bessie.

Ninja'd: lynching you first is unfortunately necessary for the plan because it removes a roleblock that could cause trouble otherwise.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby adnapemit » Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:39 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@adnapemit:
- Beast cannot create item and perform any other action on the same night. It is simply impossible for mpolo to have killed BoomFrog.
I thought this, then I thought I read it wrong...so moved mpolo from one list to another.
- BoomFrog could theoretically have targeted bessie and scum!me could have redirected or blocked heury. I'm not 100% cleared, that's the only reason I'm still arguing with bessie.

You are correct. :|
But you also voted LaserGuy and bussing your scum buddy day 1 is still a pretty bad move.
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:40 am UTC

If we want to lynch based on scumminess then I would want to lynch bessie first with adnapemit blocking moody and both heury and me protecting moody.
If there is NK during the night then it must be either adnapemit or heury and we win by lynching adnapemit, moody shooting heury.
If there is no NK then we can still lynch adnapemit, moody shoots heury. If game does not end then we lynch moody.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:42 am UTC

@all: whatever we decide please don't put anyone at L-1. We need everyone to be able to submit the appropriate action.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:49 am UTC

@mpolo: please give roleblock to me tonight, it's the only item that can be useful N4 should it come to that.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 06, 2017 1:48 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Looking at his D2 content the thing that I find most suspicious is that he so readily went along with the plan, possibly sacrificing his one-shot power in the process, and not asking the mod about the status of his power before Sabrar did.
Just realized that this is a very valid point regarding moody. Scum!moody loses nothing but town!moody should have been concerned about wasting his shot.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby mpolo » Sun Aug 06, 2017 2:42 pm UTC

The disadvantage of reading the thread is that I'm coming to pretty much the same conclusions:

I really feel like PW was newbie town, but have also asked myself if he/she didn't change one line of the PM quoted. (Though I suppose there's at least a chance that dimochka would have reacted differently to a forged PM, as that would be even more serious in a certain sense — as it shows more knowledge of the game and the forum.) But I can't put myself at 100% adnapemit must be town. So adnapemit is about 95% certain town.

moody has not been a lot louder than GoP, but at least a little bit. As Sabrar says, going into a "let my power be siphoned off" situation without knowing precisely what the end result of this is makes it sound as though his power was more or less useless to him, which could be scummy. Combined with the low participation in both incarnations, moody would be my choice for a traditional "lynch the scummiest person" strategy.

heuristically_alone has been all over the place, so I don't have a clean read on him. Sabrar claims that the claimed Sniff from N2 would have required a lot of luck to guess correctly. He's sitting in the middle of the field for me (due to the number of townie reads, that puts him at second-scummiest, though).

I find it very hard to read either bessie or Sabrar as scum at this point. Their argument seems primarily philosophical.

My "traditional strategy" would be to lynch moody and blast heuristically_alone. But we could get a D4 where everybody is pretty townie-looking…
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 06, 2017 4:34 pm UTC

@bessie: I'm a bit curious about something. I mentioned multiple times that my plan relies on heury being Wolverine as well as me being Town. You seem to accept the latter at first, later reinforcing it, then later reserving the right to review it (as you should). However you only mention the first assumption in a single comment and don't analyze it anywhere even though I draw your attention to it. You think that heury is scum but never really analyze his claim or what other role he could be if he false-claimed. Why?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:49 pm UTC

I’m catching up now. Hoku got sick all over the house last night, and we’re watching him to see if this warrants yet another visit to the puppy emergency room. So, the good news is I should be home today instead of out doing something else?

Sabrar wrote:Since one of the key assumptions for the plan was that I'm town I didn't feel the need to go into details in case I'm not. If I'm scum the plan guarantees my win as all I have to do is withhold resulting in the same D4 scenario as if bessie were scum. I could even try to win N3 by killing bessie, leaving a 1-1 endgame. Why would I protect heury?
I told you there would possibly be mistakes in my analysis. I looked at this backwards (looked at power first not kill). Scum!Sabrar would prioritize killing bessie (stronger power, mpolo is almost vanilla by now) and wouldn’t be concerned about using his other power.

adnapemit wrote:Also if you want to lynch me just so you can NK bessie then I understand....
I actually forgot about this, because my analysis was for the “adnapemit is dead” plan. It’s another reason we need to lynch adnapemit first. adnapemit, how do you think town!Sabrar intends to NK me?

adnapemit wrote:You are correct. :|
But you also voted LaserGuy and bussing your scum buddy day 1 is still a pretty bad move.
So by this logic, to you I should be ultra confirmed town?

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Looking at his D2 content the thing that I find most suspicious is that he so readily went along with the plan, possibly sacrificing his one-shot power in the process, and not asking the mod about the status of his power before Sabrar did.
Just realized that this is a very valid point regarding moody. Scum!moody loses nothing but town!moody should have been concerned about wasting his shot.
And I’ve been wondering why you didn’t pick up on this earlier.

Sabrar I’m working on your question re: heury. Back in a bit.

Sabrar wrote:I'm not 100% cleared, that's the only reason I'm still arguing with bessie.
Perhaps. :P

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 06, 2017 5:56 pm UTC

bessie wrote:And I’ve been wondering why you didn’t pick up on this earlier.
Lol. I've so anticipated this remark. This is why.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 06, 2017 7:11 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:And I’ve been wondering why you didn’t pick up on this earlier.
Lol. I've so anticipated this remark. This is why.
I so should have seen that one coming…

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: I'm a bit curious about something. I mentioned multiple times that my plan relies on heury being Wolverine as well as me being Town. You seem to accept the latter at first, later reinforcing it, then later reserving the right to review it (as you should). However you only mention the first assumption in a single comment and don't analyze it anywhere even though I draw your attention to it. You think that heury is scum but never really analyze his claim or what other role he could be if he false-claimed. Why?

I've thought about Heury's claim that he is Wolverine and my initial evaluation was that he was telling the truth about it, and I haven't dug into it very much. At the end of D1 town!Heury had to be Wolverine, Cyclops, or Professor X. I pushed him hard for a role claim D2 on the off chance he would make an error but I wasn't really expecting one.

Scum!Heury is Storm – unlikely. In LaserGuy’s third post he tests the waters for policy lynching Storm. Meta read is that heury would have used his power(s) by now. D1 would he have used it to save LaserGuy instead of soft claiming chat with Jean Grey (this claim has always bothered me, it was like a hasty bus)? After the claim it was too late even though he was monitoring the thread. Hmm this one isn’t as obvious as I first thought, but I still think it’s unlikely.

Scum!Heury is Professor X – unlikely. There is no downside to claiming his role truthfully as scum, so why lie? Need to think about the possibility he used a redirect N1.

Scum!Heury is Magneto – Possible he used the tracker power on Sabrar N1. Possible he used the roleblock on someone N2. I’m not really concerned if he is Magneto because the role is not that useful to scum!Heury unless he still has the roleblock, and if he does it would just delay his death, not prevent it.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 06, 2017 7:42 pm UTC

Putting all my plans into one post, just to make it easier to look it up.

Mass Carnage
Spoiler:
D3: lynch adnapemit

N3:
- moody kills heury
- bessie kills moody
- mpolo gives roleblock to me
- I protect mpolo
Slow and agonizing death, blocking all scum-kills (note: plan works even though moody has Optic Blast)
Spoiler:
D3: No Lynch

N3:
- bessie uses stolen Optic Blast to kill heury
- adnapemit blocks moody
- heury uses medkit to protect me
- I protect mpolo
- mpolo gives roleblock to me
Scum-hunting plan inspired by bessie because she threatened to kill me
Spoiler:
D3: lynch bessie

N3:
- adnapemit blocks moody
- heury protects moody
- I protect moody
- mpolo gives roleblock to me

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 06, 2017 7:55 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:It is now Day 3. There are 6 people alive, 4 to lynch. Deadline in 4 days (7pm PST on Monday), and I don't expect to be late for this one.

Please confirm you meant PDT, not PST.

mpolo, which of Sabrar’s three plans do you prefer?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby mpolo » Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:14 pm UTC

Well, Mass Carnage has the advantage of killing both people I think might be our scum in this night. It is a little mean to kill adnapemit just to turn off the power though… How does adnapemit feel about this?
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:33 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:Well, Mass Carnage has the advantage of killing both people I think might be our scum in this night. It is a little mean to kill adnapemit just to turn off the power though… How does adnapemit feel about this?
I don't think she likes it very much. :)

Reconsidering a specific part of bessie's content made me less sure in my read about her being the last scum, though she is certainly good enough to fake it. Therefore I would also prefer Mass Carnage.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby bessie » Sun Aug 06, 2017 10:37 pm UTC

I would prefer Mass Carnage. I am against Slow Death. I will not try to stop Kill bessie.

Sabrar wrote:Reconsidering a specific part of bessie's content made me less sure in my read about her being the last scum, though she is certainly good enough to fake it. Therefore I would also prefer Mass Carnage.
I’m very curious as to what this is, but I think you will probably not tell me.

I also am very suspicious of anyone that wants to make a read based on my scum meta for the following reasons:
1. Lack of recent data.
2. Small sample size, low ratio of (scum/total) games.
3. Some of those games should not be considered representative of my scum game.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby dimochka » Mon Aug 07, 2017 4:42 am UTC

bessie wrote:
dimochka wrote:It is now Day 3. There are 6 people alive, 4 to lynch. Deadline in 4 days (7pm PST on Monday), and I don't expect to be late for this one.

Please confirm you meant PDT, not PST.

I didn't even know there was a difference till you pointed it out (guess that's my learning for the day). Yes, PDT.

Also, if days end early due to early hammer, you'll have up to 24 hours or the original deadline (whichever comes first) to submit actions.
If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby bessie » Mon Aug 07, 2017 6:53 am UTC

Let’s see, we have about 19 hours until deadline.

mpolo, you’re the closest to confirmed town. Which (if any) plan do you support? Your scum pick is moody, and under the Mass Carnage plan I would be killing him tonight.

adnapemit, your strongest town read is Sabrar. If Sabrar is town, Mass Carnage guarantees a town win tonight. Why aren’t you supporting this plan?

moody, you said your choice would be for you to shoot heury tonight. Under the Mass Carnage plan, you will get your wish. So do you support this plan?

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 07, 2017 7:46 am UTC

Preliminary analysis for D4 after the Carnage should I not survive it:

Spoiler:
- scum!adnapemit dies by lynch, no D4
- scum!moody is confirmed Cyclops, cannot avoid getting killed, no D4
- scum!bessie is confirmed to have used roleblock N2, cannot be Storm/Professor X. Either Gambit as claimed or Magneto who does not have roleblock left. If she wants to kill me she also has to prevent heury from protecting me, cannot do so as Magneto. If she blocks heury as Gambit then heury also survives. Also cannot shoot moody at the same time. This means that if bessie is scum and I die during N3 then I will be the only NK.
- scum!heury cannot avoid death as Storm/Wolverine. Professor X is incredibly unlikely as that would have meant he did not choose a chat-buddy either D1 or D2 before the claims. Theoretically could have had BoomFrog as buddy D1 but that's very unlikely given their conversation in the thread towards the end of the day. I feel safe in discarding this possibility. Therefore scum!heury's only chance of surviving N3 is to block moody as Magneto (cannot target himself with medkit/Magneto's doc power). Following previous point he cannot let moody die because that would clear bessie. Therefore he must use medkit on moody as well, plus killing me.

Conclusion: if I die then the only scenario in which either bessie or heury could still be scum is if everyone else is alive. Therefore mpolo should keep the roleblock instead of giving it to me, D4 lynch bessie, mpolo blocks heury, D5 lynch heury, guaranteed win.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now let's analyze if this is a good idea should I live.

As before we do not have to concern ourselves with scum!adnapemit and scum!moody.
- scum!heury can still only survive if he Magneto!blocks moody. He cannot kill mpolo as I will protect him. He cannot kill me as we are currently assuming that I survive. He cannot kill bessie as this would implicate him.
-scum!bessie cannot kill mpolo as that would clear heury. She cannot kill me as we are currently assuming that I survive. There is no point in blocking me. There is no point in blocking mpolo because if mpolo did not create item then this will implicate her. She cannot kill heury as this would implicate her.

Conclusion: if I survive then D4 there will be at least 4 players alive {bessie, heury, mpolo, Sabrar}. Again we lynch bessie, mpolo blocks heury, next day we lynch heury, guaranteed win.
Summary: mpolo should keep the roleblock instead of giving it away. Only way the plan fails is if heury is Professor X and I'm pretty sure he isn't.

Updated (and final) night-actions:
- mpolo creates roleblock and keeps it
- heury uses medkit on me
- I protect mpolo
- bessie shoots moody
- moody shoots heury

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 07, 2017 7:51 am UTC

EBWOP: it is very important to lynch bessie D4 as theoretically she could have Siphon remaining which comes first before other roleblocks, therefore lynching heury first loses to scum!Gambit!bessie who can prevent the roleblock on her.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby mpolo » Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:00 am UTC

@Sabrar: bessie is not Gambit, adnapemit is…
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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:08 am UTC

True, substitute Rogue for Gambit, doesn't change a thing in the actual analysis. Don't know why I confused the two.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:13 am UTC

bessie wrote:mpolo, you’re the closest to confirmed town.
What is this wording? He is confirmed town.

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Re: X-Men Mafia: Day 3

Postby adnapemit » Mon Aug 07, 2017 8:47 am UTC

bessie wrote:adnapemit, your strongest town read is Sabrar. If Sabrar is town, Mass Carnage guarantees a town win tonight. Why aren’t you supporting this plan?

I'm not against it. It works.
It just feels really odd to lynch town to get to mafia. Like ever mafia game instinct in me is telling me it's wrong.
I also think mass carnage is a good idea even if Sabrar isn't town. But whatever we do if it ends up at 2 town and 1 mafia and Sabrar is still alive then he should be lynched.

bessie wrote:
adnapemit wrote:Also if you want to lynch me just so you can NK bessie then I understand....
I actually forgot about this, because my analysis was for the “adnapemit is dead” plan. It’s another reason we need to lynch adnapemit first. adnapemit, how do you think town!Sabrar intends to NK me?
There's still a few hours left...that's enough time for Sabrar to come up with a plan. :P
That "you" was actually just directed at anyone. I was trying to say that it's easier for many reasons if I'm lynched.

adnapemit wrote:You are correct. :|
But you also voted LaserGuy and bussing your scum buddy day 1 is still a pretty bad move.
So by this logic, to you I should be ultra confirmed town?
Pretty much, yeah. The paranoid side of me keeps thinking for both you and Sabrar "but what if it was their plan all along to make themselves look super townie then survive until 3 people" but then the more rational side remember that you can't predict night actions so it's a very very bad move to halve your numbers early on.
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