Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Game over! - Wing Condition

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby heuristically_alone » Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:34 pm UTC

Ok I understand now what you mean and why doctor is really the best false claim for scum. Jimbob's claim that he didn't realize that all PR birdsl names were given at the beginning seems believable though. I myself hadn't noticed it and I swear I had read the whole intro. It goes with his claim of not reading the setup. That is one of my biggest problems with jimbob though, how can you not read the setup? But also, would scum be dumb enough to claim that?

Either way, is there anyone who doesn't think dimochka is scum? Because that still vastly seems like the best lynch right now. I am so looking forward to dying tonight.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:28 pm UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Breadcrumbing Dove is a very low risk/high reward play that had a 50% chance of being relevant, props to jimbob for coming up with it. Can provide the analysis if people are interested.


Wrong. If Jimbob is false claiming then there can be no roleblocker. Which means that jimbob would have a 20% chance at breacrumbing a role that would be relevant (because he would have no idea which of the 5 possible town PRs was in the game). I do not believe that Sabrar!town would miss this fact.

The question is, how much of a chance is it that sabrar and jimbob are one heck of a scum dream team? I rather doubt it. It doesnt seem to be Sabrar's meta to bus like so. What do you think Laserguy?

In conclusion, I'm inclined to thinkthe scum team is Dimochka and Sabrar. If we are so sure that either sabrar or jimbob is scum, then Dimochka should be our lynch today.


I think is scum is Sabrar/jimbob, they deserve to win. I don't see it at all.

My thoughts for today are basically this:
-dimochka is almost certainly scum. There's very little room available for him not to be.
-Scum is betting on us mislynching the non-scum of jimbob/Sabrar to win the game.
-There is only one piece of information lynching dimochka can get us--if he is roleblocker, game is solved--jimbob is confirmed town. If he flips goon, it's a null tell.
-It's more likely than not that dimochka is goon since his partner is bussing him today. Then again, they're also so constrained by the situation that even if dimochka is the roleblocker, there isn't really much choice but to bus. So probably it gains us nothing to lynch him, but it isn't going to hurt us either.
-I think dimochka's partner is very likely Sabrar. I haven't been reading jimbob as scummy, and I think the breadcrumb is legit.

I think the correct play for today is to lynch dimochka. We might gain some extra information at very little risk. One of us will get killed in the night, but if we're both in agreement about what to do going forward, that doesn't really matter. jimbob/Sabrar crossvote and whichever of us is left decides the game. If you want to just force the issue today and lynch Sabrar, then I'm okay with that too.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:29 pm UTC

EBWOP: Sorry that should be IF scum is Sabrar/jimbob, they deserve to win.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby heuristically_alone » Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:20 pm UTC

@Sabrar

What do you think of a Laserguy/Dimochka scum team?
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jul 14, 2017 7:38 pm UTC

LaserGuy plays the same way I did in Shakespeare III. Unless I'm way underestimating the impact of having bessie as mentor he can't be scum, regardless of who would be his partner.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby heuristically_alone » Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:55 pm UTC

VOTE: DIMOCHKA

No sense in waiting around for this.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jul 14, 2017 9:51 pm UTC

It seems a bit impolite to lynch someone who didn't say anything yet but seeing that he will probably be gone for the weekend we might not hear from him for another 3 days.
I'll vote dimochka in the morning if he doesn't give a sign of life until then.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby heuristically_alone » Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:23 pm UTC

1) I know, but I am not worried about my vote getting him hammered right away, so I'm no worries.

2) Why should I be polite to someone killing all of my birdy friends?
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby dimochka » Sat Jul 15, 2017 5:01 am UTC

Wow way to give me a chance to say something... the only reason i'm bothering to post now is because it would be against my wincon otherwise.

I'm pretty certain that the scum team is Sabrar and Jimbob. I honestly don't see another explanation for this. And honestly I think you should unvote. The only reason I haven't been hammered yet is because they haven't both been on after your post. And please explain to me what exactly I've done that's scummy or is indicative of me being scum. It's not my fault I subbed for a player who wasn't around at all. Show me where my logic has been wrong, or where I've done anything to hurt our chances of winning, other than making the incorrect call on Somitomi. Which by the way I still stand behind; he didn't even try to defend himself or give me reason to feel otherwise about him.

I slightly hope I get hammered asap, so people don't rush votes like this next game.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 15, 2017 5:53 am UTC

dimochka wrote:And please explain to me what exactly I've done that's scummy or is indicative of me being scum.
Said every scum player ever.

If I'm scum with jimbob then why didn't he switch over to your wagon at the end of D2?

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby heuristically_alone » Sat Jul 15, 2017 3:20 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:Wow way to give me a chance to say something... the only reason i'm bothering to post now is because it would be against my wincon otherwise.

This sounds like you don't plan on saying more. Just a quick post to defend yourself and then let the apples fall where they may be.
If jimbob is dimochka's scum partner, I'd say he is feelijg confident about the win because chances are Sabrar will be lynched over jimbob. So dimochka doesnt necessarily feel like it matters too much getting himself lynched.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:59 pm UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:If jimbob is dimochka's scum partner, I'd say he is feelijg confident about the win because chances are Sabrar will be lynched over jimbob. So dimochka doesnt necessarily feel like it matters too much getting himself lynched.

To be honest this is an excellent reason why we should lynch jimbob first as that would make the setup crystal-clear. Lynching dimochka still gives you a chance to choose incorrectly tomorrow.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby heuristically_alone » Sat Jul 15, 2017 5:01 pm UTC

I was actually thinking about that too. That we make our choice between jimbob and sabrar now so we know right away if we have lost.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 15, 2017 5:09 pm UTC

Whenever you're ready let me know what you've decided and I will vote accordingly.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jul 15, 2017 8:08 pm UTC

Finally had some time. Here is why jimbob's claim is inconsistent:
- he claims not to have read the setup despite it being 1 click away. He even claims that the setup is not important.
- he is however aware that multiple setups are possible (see question 2).
- another comment even implies that he knows the different power-roles.
- he makes a side-comment about how he's not completely sure if there could be Jester in the game. Based on that and the fact that he didn't have a look at the setup at all we have to assume that he also didn't know if there was a Serial Killer or a Survivor or any other indie role in the game for example.
- he later states the following when explaining why he didn't do any setup-analysis :
Because most of my setup speculation these days is to try to figure out relative breakdowns of different factions (i.e. how many scum and indies), which is clearly not relevant here.
This clearly contradicts the previous point as he would have to know at least the basics of the setup (i.e. 7 Town, 2 Mafia) in order for the above to be accurate.

Summary: jimbob made a false bread-crumb in case it would be useful later. He also started to pretend that he was VT because that would be the only role who is not interested in the setup. When he saw that this won't work he went back to his original idea and claimed his breadcrumb as the setup made it possible for him to do so.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby dimochka » Sat Jul 15, 2017 8:38 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
dimochka wrote:And please explain to me what exactly I've done that's scummy or is indicative of me being scum.
Said every scum player ever.

If I'm scum with jimbob then why didn't he switch over to your wagon at the end of D2?

Why would he have needed to? There was no rush to attract attention to himself. There were two votes on all three of us. If I didn't post, he would have just switched to me at the end.

heuristically_alone wrote:
dimochka wrote:Wow way to give me a chance to say something... the only reason i'm bothering to post now is because it would be against my wincon otherwise.

This sounds like you don't plan on saying more. Just a quick post to defend yourself and then let the apples fall where they may be.
If jimbob is dimochka's scum partner, I'd say he is feelijg confident about the win because chances are Sabrar will be lynched over jimbob. So dimochka doesnt necessarily feel like it matters too much getting himself lynched.

Yes, exactly, you figured me out. :evil:

heuristically_alone wrote:I was actually thinking about that too. That we make our choice between jimbob and sabrar now so we know right away if we have lost.

Considering you can't really make a wrong move here, that sounds fine to me. Also, can you please unvote? If you want me to continue discussion, I don't want to just be quick lynched after putting time into this.

Sabrar wrote:Finally had some time. Here is why jimbob's claim is inconsistent:
- he claims not to have read the setup despite it being 1 click away. He even claims that the setup is not important.
- he is however aware that multiple setups are possible (see question 2).
- another comment even implies that he knows the different power-roles.
- he makes a side-comment about how he's not completely sure if there could be Jester in the game. Based on that and the fact that he didn't have a look at the setup at all we have to assume that he also didn't know if there was a Serial Killer or a Survivor or any other indie role in the game for example.
- he later states the following when explaining why he didn't do any setup-analysis :
Because most of my setup speculation these days is to try to figure out relative breakdowns of different factions (i.e. how many scum and indies), which is clearly not relevant here.
This clearly contradicts the previous point as he would have to know at least the basics of the setup (i.e. 7 Town, 2 Mafia) in order for the above to be accurate.

Summary: jimbob made a false bread-crumb in case it would be useful later. He also started to pretend that he was VT because that would be the only role who is not interested in the setup. When he saw that this won't work he went back to his original idea and claimed his breadcrumb as the setup made it possible for him to do so.

Yes, you've dissected it in every possible way. It's really unlikely that jimbob is so careless about the setup and he's a PR. So while I don't necessarily agree with your reasons, I agree with your conclusions. And I have to commend you two on upkeeping an argument throughout the entire game so that at least one of you would look townie.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jul 16, 2017 3:18 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
heuristically_alone wrote:If jimbob is dimochka's scum partner, I'd say he is feelijg confident about the win because chances are Sabrar will be lynched over jimbob. So dimochka doesnt necessarily feel like it matters too much getting himself lynched.

To be honest this is an excellent reason why we should lynch jimbob first as that would make the setup crystal-clear. Lynching dimochka still gives you a chance to choose incorrectly tomorrow.


Okay, let's just get this out of the way then.

Vote Sabrar

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jul 16, 2017 3:27 am UTC

EBWOP

Unvote

Actually will hold off until heury unvotes, but Sabrar has convinced me we should lynch him today

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby heuristically_alone » Sun Jul 16, 2017 4:18 am UTC

unvote

How has sabrar convinced you that he is the lynch today?
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jul 16, 2017 5:48 am UTC

Because of these:

Sabrar wrote:To be honest this is an excellent reason why we should lynch jimbob first as that would make the setup crystal-clear. Lynching dimochka still gives you a chance to choose incorrectly tomorrow.


dimochka wrote:Yes, you've dissected it in every possible way. It's really unlikely that jimbob is so careless about the setup and he's a PR. So while I don't necessarily agree with your reasons, I agree with your conclusions. And I have to commend you two on upkeeping an argument throughout the entire game so that at least one of you would look townie.


Sabrar is desperate to lynch jimbob. His reasoning here is wrong (dimochka is the correct lynch to get more setup information; lynching jimbob may (will) cost us the game). Unless we're seriously considering a Sabrar/jimbob scum team (we shouldn't be), then there is no reason to lynch jimbob before dimochka even if we believed both were scum. dimochka is supporting this line of attack to push the same lynch.

I'm pretty confident that we can just lynch Sabrar today. As I said at the outset, I'm fine with lynching dimochka if you want some extra info, but I don't think it's necessary (and probably won't provide it).

FWIW, I think Sabrar's case on jimbob is also faulty because most of the information he's talking about was discussed in-thread at the time that jimbob started posting. Even if jimbob hadn't read the full setup, he'd still know that there's multiple possible setups, a 7-2 town/scum split, and the possible power roles. This is all in mpolo's first post. The only comment out of all of those that stands out as problematic for jimbob is the Jester one.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:15 am UTC

LaserGuy wrote:His reasoning here is wrong
I am sick of people accusing my logic being bad. There has not been a single instance of this ever happening.
I am Town -> unless you are scum jimbob must be one -> there is no Doctor -> there is no roleblocker -> lynching dimochka won't give us any additional info from the setup. I mean even you admit that last part so I'm really not seeing your problem here.

LaserGuy wrote:I think Sabrar's case on jimbob is also faulty because most of the information he's talking about was discussed in-thread at the time that jimbob started posting.
Suppose he reads mpolo's linked post and thinks about it. Then he probably also reads my reply immediately after that where I correct mpolo. According to him the setup is not important and he can't even bother to open the link to see for himself what are the actual possibilities. He doesn't even know that there is a matrix or how the PR-s are determined. Still he takes those info as granted and bases his later content on those. Does this look right to you?

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby heuristically_alone » Sun Jul 16, 2017 7:01 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:I am sick of people accusing my logic being bad. There has not been a single instance of this ever happening.

I hope you were smiling as you typed that.

VOTE:Sabrar
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Madge » Sun Jul 16, 2017 7:24 am UTC

Votals: (We are in LYLO)

Sabrar - (1) - Heuristically_Alone

Day 3 ends in 3 days, 20 hours, 35 minutes
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jul 16, 2017 7:30 am UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:I hope you were smiling as you typed that.

When I get frustrated I rarely smile. I can't even imagine why you would write that so I'll refrain from commenting on it.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby heuristically_alone » Sun Jul 16, 2017 7:47 am UTC

From Shakespeare III
Sabrar wrote: I believe it does not matter who we lynch today as both dimochka and Gopher of Pern are scum, still the latter is the safer choice.


Remember this sound logic? Glad to hear your logic is never flawed.

I said you must have been smiling because of how ridiculous that statement is and how obvscum that post made you.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jul 16, 2017 7:50 am UTC

You confuse logic with reads. In this game I'm working with perfect information, in Shakespeare I was just sure that GoP was scum. The two are entirely different.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jul 16, 2017 8:43 am UTC

Is a mentor allowed to comment on an off-topic statement based on personal experience?

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Madge » Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:02 am UTC

I'm not entirely sure what you mean, if you can be more specific that would be great.

From my observations of the mentor conversations, it generally takes the form of mentors responding to particular questions, and mentors do not offer their own reads.

For what it's worth, no mentor messages have been exchanged in the past 24 hours.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jul 16, 2017 9:09 am UTC

bessie would be able to confirm that I was 100% serious when I made the comment about my logic not being incorrect. This might just be off-topic enough for it to be allowed though I'm not really expecting it to be.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Madge » Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:00 am UTC

Mentors are fine to offer advice based on a player's meta, if that's what you're getting at.

Aside: This whole mentor thing is brand new so I've been pretty laissez-faire with it in general: my only guideline was really "don't give them your reads, ask them questions about their reads" as I figured the worst thing the mentor system could do would be to turn a "normal" player into a "quasi-hydra" player, which if undesirable is more "failed experiment" level of undesirable than a "ruined the game for everyone" level of undesirable.

I'm sure everyone would be glad to share the full logs of mentor chats for people to dissect and comment on the appropriateness of in retrospect.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:19 am UTC

That's exactly what I was referring to, thanks.

@heury: you already suspected me once before because you thought my logic was wrong. This is the same situation, please unvote asap and ask LaserGuy to ask bessie about my meta in this regard.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby LaserGuy » Sun Jul 16, 2017 2:38 pm UTC

Starting an argument with the premise that you are town is not very helpful when that is the very thing that is in dispute.

Vote Sabrar

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jul 16, 2017 2:42 pm UTC

But it is correct fmpov.

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jul 16, 2017 4:07 pm UTC

So I've debated for a while whether to do this and I can see it go either way. However as the game is intended as a learning opportunity for newbies, here's a good lesson:
Use the available time to discuss things and don't let scum deprive you of that. You need input from everyone as that will help you make the correct decision later.

Vote: Sabrar

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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby heuristically_alone » Sun Jul 16, 2017 5:58 pm UTC

So you are scum depriving us of info from everybody by self voting?
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jul 16, 2017 6:02 pm UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:So you are scum depriving us of info from everybody by self voting?

Hammer has been cast. Don't talk after hammer unless the rules explicitly allow it.
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Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 3 - The Albatross about a tree was hung

Postby Madge » Sun Jul 16, 2017 10:44 pm UTC

Hammer has been cast. No more posting. I will post a proper day end post in about six hours.
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Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Night 3 - By my own petard

Postby Madge » Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:59 am UTC

The birds' debates had grown nasty: they accused one another of this or that. It seemed that the horror of the albatross's death was enough for all of them to grow somewhat mad.

They squawked and yelled and debated, until two birds eyed a suspicious cloaked figure.

"What about Sabrar?" One of them chirped. "I don't trust him. I can smell the faint scent of dozens of ruined picnics!"

The cloaked figure cried out in surprise. "What? No. I would never - I love picnics! I mean, watching them from afar. I would never do anything..."

"No!" Came another cloaked bird. "You would! It has to be you. Who else could it be? Surely not the dove. Come! Call the crow! Have him send for our next executioner. Meanwhile, we can make sure that we're ready for whatever the ibises may do next..."

Sabrar's eyes glinted from under the hood of his cloak. He laughed. "No. I will not allow anyone else to take the breath from my lungs. I shall do it by my own wing!"

And, all of a sudden, he flew at full speed into a forked branch, his neck becoming stuck where the branches joined. After a few moments, the breath left him, and the cloaked figure sat prone.

"Oh my - " Started someone, but the dove made a soothing coo.

"It is over. Let's wait for the crow. If he was not an ibis, I hope he knows peace. If he was an ibis, I wish he experience the fate of Prometheus." Said the dove.

And so, in the noonday sun, the birds waited to hear what the crow would say.


Sabrar was executed by the group vote. Role reveal in the morning.

It is now Night. If you have any night actions, please PM them to the moderator now. The mafia may now chat.

Night will last at most 2 days (47 hours).

Final votals:

Sabrar - 3 - Heuristically_alone, LaserGuy, Sabrar


(note that I will almost certainly not be posting Day 4 on the posted deadline as I believe I have a course that day, but hopefully I will get all the night actions soon enough that I can call night within 24 hours)
I'm writing a vampire yaoi novel, here's my accountability link: https://www.beeminder.com/mad/redandwilliam

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Madge
Posts: 59
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 3:45 am UTC
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 4 - Final Showdown

Postby Madge » Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:54 pm UTC

The crow rushed over to the scene as fast as his wings could carry him.

“What on earth has happened here?” He cawed.

“He got possessed by something, I think.” Came one of the sparrows, a wiley fledgling named Laserguy. “Came and choked himself on the tree…”

Laserguy flitted up to the cloaked figure, and gently pulled at the hood.

The unmistakeable scythe beak he revealed spread waves of shock throughout the clearing: this strange, suicidal creature was one of the horrible ibises!


Sabrar was executed yesterday by the group vote. He was an ordinary Ibis (Vanilla Scum).

The crow shook his head. “I suppose he knew we were onto him. At least we have time, before night falls. We can have another vote, maybe find his compatr-”

The silent whistle of an arrow’s flight cut the crow’s speech off. The arrow flew true, hitting its mark in Laserguy’s heart and pinning him to a tree trunk where he twitched for a moment before dangling lifelessly.

“What? No! The last ibis among us - it’s no longer limiting its nefarious deeds to the cover of darkness? We must make haste. Let's find out who it is, once and for all...”


Laserguy was murdered in the night. He was a sparrow (Vanilla town).

Day 4 has started. You may now post. Night chat must stop.

With 3 players alive and 1 mafia, we are in LYLO.

Day 4 ends in about 5 and a half days.
I'm writing a vampire yaoi novel, here's my accountability link: https://www.beeminder.com/mad/redandwilliam

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dimochka
Posts: 77
Joined: Tue Apr 05, 2011 6:25 pm UTC
Location: Formerly NYC, now LA. He/Him/His please.

Re: Bin Chicken Newbie Mafia - Day 4 - Final Showdown

Postby dimochka » Tue Jul 18, 2017 4:17 pm UTC

I was not expecting night to end this quickly, so give me a few hours to gather my thoughts (and get out of work meetings). Though you already know generally what I believe.
If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".


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