The Dark Tower - Mission failure

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Gopher of Pern
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 1 - Mistrust

Postby Gopher of Pern » Tue Apr 25, 2017 5:54 am UTC

Given that SDK barely gave any reasons for being suspicious of me, I don't see how you can say strong support for me as scum. So, the other possibility is you looking to be seen to agree with SDK. Not sure whether that means you are scum, trying to be friends with a town player, or town, trying to throw scum off, but it was noticeable.
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 1 - Mistrust

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Apr 25, 2017 5:57 am UTC

SDK wrote:Carlington: His first reads post felt townie, but is pretty typical of Carlington's play overall (I should actually go back and find a Carlington scum game).


You subbed into Diablo where he was SK, remember? It was like three weeks ago.

FrozenFlame wrote:Bessie - Perhaps I'm being played by her overly bubbly, accommodating, non-antagonistic style.

FrozenFlame wrote:This also comes off as overly accommodating


In what sense are you using 'accommodating' here? This isn't a term I've seen used in Mafia before.

FrozenFlame wrote:LaserGuy - leaning scum. He just seems too on edge, like he has a bone to pick, since the early game wagon. This read stems mostly from the tone of his prose. When I read his posts I get this feeling of slight indignation that gives his posts this oddly pushy feel. I mean like, to sum my feelings up, who the hell puts an "unofficial vote" on someone?


I was snarking at BoomFrog for claiming townie credit for an "unofficial vote" on dimochka earlier in the game.

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 1 - Mistrust

Postby SDK » Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:42 am UTC

SK doesn't count. They can hunt scum. I'll look into bessie's links on the subject later.
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 1 - Mistrust

Postby Sabrar » Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:05 am UTC

Deadline is in 2 hours. Please send me your night-actions (if you have any) before the end of the day!

Votals:
dimochka - 6 (SDK, #HBC | Zyth, LaserGuy, jimbobmacdoodle, #HBC | YOLOSWAG, BoomFrog)
jimbobmacdoodle - 2 (bessie, dimochka)
BoomFrog - 1 (mpolo)
#HBC | YOLOSWAG - 1 (Gopher of Pern)

Not voting: Carlington, FrozenFlame, plytho

Tied votals will result in a No Lynch.

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 1 - Mistrust

Postby bessie » Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:38 am UTC

I think townies claim too often on D1 to avoid the lynch (and I’ve said this before). And before anyone brings it up, no, nothing is ever a sure thing until it happens (doubters read the last three hours of D1 of Wheel of Time 2). But BoomFrog thinks you should claim, and I have a town lean on him, and he has a lot more experience than me. If you really want to help town, perhaps you can give us an ordered list too, I really like ordered lists.

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 1 - Mistrust

Postby plytho » Tue Apr 25, 2017 7:48 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
plytho wrote:@BoomFrog: I wasn’t among the first to bring attention to you. You may have to revisit your analysis here.

Bleh...

No time to dig that back out. If someone does see during a reread who that was I'd appreciate a link to the post of the first person to attack me for my baseless switch of my vote to JimBob.

@BoomFrog: looking back at your responses I guess perhaps I was giving you some attention in my reads list.
BoomFrog wrote:
plytho wrote:BoomFrog: I can’t really read much on him based on his posts so far. Has sort of been voting with the flow (like YOLOSWAG) starting with a joke/serious vote on me, then joining the pressure on dimochka and now on jimbob. Neutral
For the record I was the first "Vote" on dimochka but I made it unofficially because I was still serious about my vote on you.

I wasn’t calling you scummy though. I pointed out one thing that kind of pinged me but I had you as neutral, with a couple of other players between you and jimbobchka on the scummy end, which is why I didn't remember putting any pressure on you. Also your responses focused more on the dimochka vote than the jimbob vote.
I think jimbobmacdoodle was the first to actually point out your faulty reasoning regarding your vote for him.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:BoomFrog: His vote on dimochka is fair, and has a bit of explanation, but his vote on me is simply based on dimochka's argument, which I find curious mostly due to dimochka being his previous scum read. He has minimal other content - only a brief comment on plytho's townieness, simply stating that he agreed with SDK's read (which was itself without any explanation). I would like to see his reads on other players, and his reasoning behind them. Leaning scum due to minimal content and simply using other people's reasoning for half of his votes and reads (i.e. the townie read on plytho and the vote on me).

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 1 - Mistrust

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:16 am UTC

Had problems with phone, so I've not had a chance to properly read last night's content.

Carlington asked why I defended GoP's balanced reads. It's because the style matches how I prefer to write my own reads often. It helps me avoid tunnelling.

Anyway, it's time for me to go out and enjoy the sun (aka, sit down at my desk and do some work indoors *sigh*).
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 1 - Mistrust

Postby Sabrar » Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:05 am UTC

Night has fallen.

Final votals:
dimochka - 6 (SDK, #HBC | Zyth, LaserGuy, jimbobmacdoodle, #HBC | YOLOSWAG, BoomFrog)
jimbobmacdoodle - 2 (bessie, dimochka)
BoomFrog - 1 (mpolo)
#HBC | YOLOSWAG - 1 (Gopher of Pern)

Not voting: Carlington, FrozenFlame, plytho

dimochka has been lynched. Please refrain from posting until D2 starts.

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 1 - Mistrust

Postby Sabrar » Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:24 am UTC

Richard Dees had no idea why the mysterious force chose him to support Roland. He toyed with the idea that it was a cosmic joke simply because of the shared initials but decided that it would be the same kind of deus ex machina as if the villain of a novel could be identified just by having the same monogram throughout all of a given author's books. His discomfort showed immediately and several of his new companions picked up on it and decided that it must have been a sign of ill will. They learned how wrong they all were after the lynch but it was obviously too late for Richard.

dimochka is dead, he was Richard Dees, a member of the Town.
Spoiler:
Role: Richard Dees (The Night Flier / The Dead Zone)
As a reporter you always looked for that elusive story that would someday guarantee your fame. You have a good nose when it comes to suspicious activities and can easily follow any lead. Others may find you obsessive and obnoxious but you have your redeeming qualities as well. Now an unknown force has transported you to a mostly deserted world along with a few others to protect something they call the 'Beam'. Your instincts tell you that the intentions of this force are genuine and this is a cause worth fighting for, however you're also sure that there are evildoers in the group who conspired against the rest of you.
Ability: During the night you may follow someone to see who they interact with. You're a standard Tracker but you may not target the same player on consecutive nights as you also need to take steps to avoid being noticed.
Alignment: You are Town and win when all threats to Town are eliminated.
On the one hand John Coffey was glad that he got another chance for helping others, however deep inside he was getting sick of all the pain he experienced. He felt completely out of place among his new companions and though he tried to help he knew he needed more time to figure out who to trust. Unfortunately that time was denied to him as the travellers found only his mutilated corpse in his sleep sack the following morning. Finally John seemed to have found his peace despite his gruesome death.

plytho is dead, he was John Coffey, a member of the Town.
Spoiler:
Role: John Coffey (The Green Mile)
At first glance you're an imposing and even terrifying sight at 6'8", especially given the times you lived in. However you possess a very gentle soul, just wanting to help others as you can feel their pain. Just before you were executed for crimes you didn't commit, an unknown force has transported you to a mostly deserted world along with a few others to protect something they call the 'Beam'. Your psychic abilities allow you to sense that the intentions of this force are genuine and this is a cause worth fighting for, however you're also sure that there are evildoers in the group who conspired against the rest of you.
Ability: You have no idea how you obtained your powers, however you're able to cure diseases, tumors, even resurrect the dead if you get to them soon enough. You're a standard Doctor, however you may not target the same player on consecutive nights as a second dose of your power so soon would not be as effective.
Alignment: You are Town and win when all threats to Town are eliminated.
John Smith was disoriented at first at being transported to another world (or was it a parallel dimension? a different multiverse? He never got his terminology right). But at least people still resembled people and spoke English so that was a plus. He was determined to use his new-found abilities to aid his fellow travellers by sniffing out who among them was evil by prodding all to see who would give themselves away. However this clearly displeased at least one of them as his lifeless body was found the next morning a few dozen yards away from camp.

bessie is dead, she was John Smith, a member of the Town.
Spoiler:
Role: John Smith (Dead Zone)
Once an ordinary high school teacher, ever since you awoke from a coma that lasted more than 4 years you've been constantly getting psychic visions about people whom you touch. This has caused you to mostly shun human contact as that is a curse as well as a blessing. Now an unknown force has transported you to a mostly deserted world along with a few others to protect somethin they call the 'Beam'. Your psychic abilities allow you to sense that the intentions of this force are genuine and this is a cause worth fighting for, however you're also sure that there are evildoers in the group who conspired against the rest of you.
Ability: With just a touch you can see the intentions of other people. You are a standard Cop, receiving Town/not-Town as a result.
Alignment: You are Town and win when all threats to Town are eliminated.

The rest of the group was shaken, having lost quite a few of their supporters in a single night. It was obvious that the mission was in jeopardy but they seemed to have made no progress in identifying the agents of the Crimson King. They glanced at each other nervously and mentally prepared themselves for another nerve-wrecking day.


It is now Day 2. Deadline is set at next Tuesday 9am UTC.

10 players alive, 6 votes required to hammer.

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby Carlington » Tue Apr 25, 2017 9:55 am UTC

Do we have an SK after all, or did somebody's vig misfire? Based on a quick skim of the thread to recall people's reads of bessie and plytho, best candidate for a misfired vig would be GoP targeting plytho, but this works only if for some reason he decided not to target YOLOSWAG. Conclusion: SK or some third party kill is there.
Extrapolating backwards, we cannot have started at 8/3/1/1 I don't think, unless
Are we told if we're at MYLO/LYLO?
returns true.
I think we're likely to be in 9/3/1, as 8/4/1 means the only way left to win would be lynching SK today.

Oh, and just to put it out there, I used no power whatsoever last night, nor was I targeted by anything to my knowledge.
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby Sabrar » Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:00 am UTC

Carlington wrote:Are we told if we're at MYLO/LYLO?
No.

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby Gopher of Pern » Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:10 am UTC

Carlington wrote:Do we have an SK after all, or did somebody's vig misfire? Based on a quick skim of the thread to recall people's reads of bessie and plytho, best candidate for a misfired vig would be GoP targeting plytho, but this works only if for some reason he decided not to target YOLOSWAG. Conclusion: SK or some third party kill is there.
Extrapolating backwards, we cannot have started at 8/3/1/1 I don't think, unless
Are we told if we're at MYLO/LYLO?
returns true.
I think we're likely to be in 9/3/1, as 8/4/1 means the only way left to win would be lynching SK today.

Oh, and just to put it out there, I used no power whatsoever last night, nor was I targeted by anything to my knowledge.


???

Why would I target Plytho? They were at the top of my townie list.

FOS: Carlington

Having lost Doc and 2 investigators is a pretty big blow.

Time to look closely at who started the dimochka wagon.
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Carlington
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby Carlington » Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:47 am UTC

My bad, I meant to type bessie
Kewangji: Posdy zwei tosdy osdy oady. Bork bork bork, hoppity syphilis bork.

Eebster the Great: What specifically is moving faster than light in these examples?
doogly: Hands waving furiously.

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Tue Apr 25, 2017 11:24 am UTC

This is interesting, I'm fairly baffled by dimochka's town meta read of boomfrog. I think mafia killed plytho as he was a universal town read who was active in thread and an SK likely killed bessie. I can't see why a vig would off either one of them. I'll be having to look back at the thread sometime soon, to go through people's read lists and interactions.

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby mpolo » Tue Apr 25, 2017 12:18 pm UTC

I suppose a tracker is weak in comparison to a full cop or doctor, but I wouldn't have called it a weak role per se, in a world of "fairly standard" roles. I wish dimochka would have fought the lynch harder and sooner. By the time the claim was volunteered, it was probably too late anyway.

It seems likely that there is a serial killer. And supporters of the Crimson King, presumably Randall Flagg + 1-2 more.

If we're really lucky, mafia is reduced in size due to the serial killer, 10*-2-1 => 7*-2-1 (lumping non-nefarious independents, if they exist, with town).

However, it seems more likely that we are at 6*-3-1, which means this may be our last day with a majority for town unless we hit paydirt. I think I would prioritize getting the serial killer to take out a kill and slow this down enough to analyze.

If this was a misplaced vig kill, it changes things somewhat. If the vig is not compulsive, he clearly shouldn't shoot until he has something better than he had last night.
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby #HBC | YOLOSWAG » Tue Apr 25, 2017 12:37 pm UTC

Vote jimbob

I'm still V/LA but wanted to put this down.

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Apr 25, 2017 12:38 pm UTC

I don't recall anybody finding plytho or bessie particularly scummy, and certainly not in the top 2 scum, which I'd assume is where people would use a vigilante, so I personally think a Serial Killer is more likely than a misplaced town kill. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a PGO though.
Carlington wrote:Oh, and just to put it out there, I used no power whatsoever last night, nor was I targeted by anything to my knowledge.
Why did you put this out there, rather than a simple "nothing to claim" or similar statement? You have just volunteered scum information about your ability for no gain to town.

If I get a chance, I plan on looking at Yoloswag and BoomFrog again, as two of my scummier reads who ended up on the dimochka wagon. I'd also like to hear from Carlington as to why he didn't vote last night (possibly he stated he was going to vote dimochka, like FrozenFlame did, but I haven't got time to go back and check).

@Yoloswag, is that vote simply a carry-over from your comments yesterday?
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby #HBC | YOLOSWAG » Tue Apr 25, 2017 12:48 pm UTC

Yes jimbob, the fact that both voters on your wagon were town also tells me that the other suspicions of you on D1 were town-fueled. I know townies aren't infallible, but it does make me feel better that it wasn't just a bunch of scum manipulating the thread to push your way.

At a quick glance, I see that mpolo left his vote on boomfrog for the large majority of the day. I'm wondering why he did that and didn't join either of the wagons earlier in the phase. Does anyone know if that kind of play is standard protocol for him?

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby mpolo » Tue Apr 25, 2017 3:05 pm UTC

"Large majority of the day" is probably a little bit of an exaggeration, as I voted on the weekend, so like 4/7 of the way through the day. After I placed the vote, I saw no compelling reasons to change it. I had a small number of scum candidates, I was voting for one of them, and another (who I had all but decided was a jester, at least internally – not sure if I posted that in thread) was leading the votals. I wasn't going to be a part of "giving the game" to a jester, and nowhere else would my vote have meant more than where it was.
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby SDK » Tue Apr 25, 2017 3:34 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Time to look closely at who started the dimochka wagon.

*raises hand*

I'll take the blame for that one, though I'm not going to apologize. Dude was scummy. PS: To anyone, anywhere, there is no reason not to claim when you're under that kind of pressure.

We're in a bad spot though. Pretty brutal night, and apparently we have an SK. jimbob could be right about the PGO, I guess.

mpolo wrote:However, it seems more likely that we are at 6*-3-1, which means this may be our last day with a majority for town unless we hit paydirt. I think I would prioritize getting the serial killer to take out a kill and slow this down enough to analyze.

This is all true, but tough to do. I'll give a reread in light of dimochka's flip and see what can be dug up.

mpolo, who are you reading as scummy now?
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 1 - Mistrust

Postby FrozenFlame » Tue Apr 25, 2017 3:44 pm UTC

Jfc well those are some devastating flips... Tracker, Doc and Cop all in one go? Been awhile since I've seen that many top tier power roles eliminated D1/N1. Gonna be an uphill battle for us here given it seems like we have two anti town killers. Some SK/Mafia crossfire would be a nice boon.

#HBC | Zyth wrote:This is interesting, I'm fairly baffled by dimochka's town meta read of boomfrog. I think mafia killed plytho as he was a universal town read who was active in thread and an SK likely killed bessie. I can't see why a vig would off either one of them. I'll be having to look back at the thread sometime soon, to go through people's read lists and interactions.


I think it's the opposite actually. Bessie I felt had much more consensus around her being town than plytho. Agreed that it would have been stupid for a vig to kill either of them, lending credence to the argument that we're dealing with an SK. But if anything I think scum killed bessie for being a general town read, and SK likely killed Plytho for being a tougher kill to trace leads from thanks to Plytho having less content and being more of a neutral read in this group.

Carlington wrote:Oh, and just to put it out there, I used no power whatsoever last night, nor was I targeted by anything to my knowledge.


Whats with this pseudo vanilla claim? You wouldn't roleclaim "just to put it out there" would you? So why are you now offering up your alleged night activity unprovoked? With some of our best power roles dead we ought not be thinning their NK target pool in a way that helps them hit other power roles. You suggesting you're vanilla in this way does just that... can't tell if this was just whimsical recklessness or scum guilt manifesting as claim jumpiness.

Basically I agree with all this:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I don't recall anybody finding plytho or bessie particularly scummy, and certainly not in the top 2 scum, which I'd assume is where people would use a vigilante, so I personally think a Serial Killer is more likely than a misplaced town kill. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a PGO though.
Carlington wrote:Oh, and just to put it out there, I used no power whatsoever last night, nor was I targeted by anything to my knowledge.
Why did you put this out there, rather than a simple "nothing to claim" or similar statement? You have just volunteered scum information about your ability for no gain to town.


Also want to address these:

LaserGuy wrote:
FrozenFlame wrote:This also comes off as overly accommodating


In what sense are you using 'accommodating' here? This isn't a term I've seen used in Mafia before.


Accommodating in the sense that Carlington seemed to be going out of his way to address the perceived "issue" bessie had with him not "putting some exact label on every player." Like it's such a minor thing, and it isn't all that difficult to figure out what a person's read on another player is in a "reads" post as long as the post provides their thoughts and analysis. Placing hard labels on each player certainly isn't a necessity, so I found it strange that at the slightest hint that someone might be upset at him for leaving labels out, Carlington basically immediately begs for forgiveness and says he'll try to "communicate more clearly." Maybe the it would have been clearer if I said he seemed overly apologetic. I chose accommodating because of how willing he was to change his manner of expression.

LaserGuy wrote:
FrozenFlame wrote:LaserGuy - leaning scum. He just seems too on edge, like he has a bone to pick, since the early game wagon. This read stems mostly from the tone of his prose. When I read his posts I get this feeling of slight indignation that gives his posts this oddly pushy feel. I mean like, to sum my feelings up, who the hell puts an "unofficial vote" on someone?


I was snarking at BoomFrog for claiming townie credit for an "unofficial vote" on dimochka earlier in the game.
Well shit, missed that... Guess I'll have to re-evaluate my impressions of this exchange.

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby FrozenFlame » Tue Apr 25, 2017 3:53 pm UTC

mpolo's early burst of activity quickly post flips rubs me the wrong way as it contrasts heavily to what we saw from him D1. See the second half of my D1 reads post for more detail. Getting hella scummy vibes, seems way too excited to suggest we "go after the SK to slow the game down"

Vote: mpolo

Him not being on the dimochka wagon and just sitting alone on Boomfrog could easily be an the move of an SK not looking to get his hands dirty.

I still need to take a closer look at how yesterday's wagon really evolved, has to be scum on there. Should be able to get more thoughts up tonight

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Apr 25, 2017 5:36 pm UTC

I was pretty early in the dimochka lynch too. If be trying to take credit for it if he'd flipped scum.

First thoughts: It's obviously a SK, everyone thought those two were townie or neutral at worst. But if Mafia wins then SK losses, so SK wants to hit scum tonight don't they? (I'm a bit rusty on balance)

There was no push back on the JimBob lynch so I think he is probably the same alignment as dimochka, aka town (or non-mafia at least).

LaserGuy's town cred was mostly under the assumption that dimochka was scum. In light of the opposite I'm evaluating him as enthusiastic scum. No vote until I evaluate everyone else though.
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 1 - Mistrust

Postby BoomFrog » Tue Apr 25, 2017 5:46 pm UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:8/3/1/1 would be my guess, as I think Sabrar said everyone has power roles, with one anti-town indy (SK likely), and one neutral indy (survivor, possibly)

@GoP I ignored this D1 trying to avoid drawing attention to the fact that you claimed power town in your first post. Why would you say this without being 100% sure that there are no vanilla roles?
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 1 - Mistrust

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Apr 25, 2017 5:48 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:8/3/1/1 would be my guess, as I think Sabrar said everyone has power roles, with one anti-town indy (SK likely), and one neutral indy (survivor, possibly)

@GoP I ignored this D1 trying to avoid drawing attention to the fact that you claimed power town in your first post. Why would you say this without being 100% sure that there are no vanilla roles?


Probably because of this:

Sabrar wrote:The Dark Tower

(Stephen King Mafia)


Description: Closed setup. Everyone is a power-role with standard abilities (though perhaps with some slight variations).

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby LaserGuy » Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:16 pm UTC

I have no results to claim.

I don't see any reason to not to operate under the assumption that this was one SK kill and one mafia kill. Nobody had good reason to use a vig kill on bessie or plytho on D1, and it's fantastically unlikely that it was a redirected kill, from the probabilities alone. Flavor points to a likely SK anyway, as does forum meta. In the extremely unlikely event it was a misplaced vig kill, they should not claim anyway.

Carlington's post bothers me a lot. Mixing up the player's names that you were talking about is a pretty bad slip, and there isn't any reason why GoP would have targeted either player were he a vig anyway. The night action claim is odd for reasons others have already mentioned.

I reread dimochka in light of the fact that he was town, and, honestly, I just don't understand his play. I think there were very good reasons for voting him, and he made little attempt to defend himself or hunt scum. Going through to do a full reread of everyone in light of the new data we have and see what turns up.

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby Carlington » Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:43 am UTC

I genuinely dislike the fact that I'm such a low-activity player in my last few games, so I resolved to be more active in this game. I've still been slow to start, so I tried to make up for that by being active D2. Evidently, my eagerness was at the expense of proofreading and due diligence. In view of the fact that everyone is a power role, I didn't really see any difference between my no result claim and a generic one until it was pointed out. The slip with people's names I can attribute only to the fact that I had already written a vig misfire off as a possibility and was only covering it in my post to lay that out clearly.

@FrozenFlame: I dig what you're saying about my being overly accommodating, but for context you should know that me making reads posts that bessie calls vague has happened in a few games together. It's an ongoing issue that crops up regardless of the alignment of either one of us, so I feel like it's a result of poor communication on my part.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'd also like to hear from Carlington as to why he didn't vote last night (possibly he stated he was going to vote dimochka, like FrozenFlame did, but I haven't got time to go back and check).
I don't recall commenting in thread, but that's the long and short of it. I would have been on dimochka's wagon, but I didn't want to end the day early.

The sudden interest in jimbob and mpolo is interesting, I'm going to re-read for consistency, brb.
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 1 - Mistrust

Postby Carlington » Wed Apr 26, 2017 12:52 am UTC

The suspicion on jimbob is consistent from the players it's now coming from. The suspicion on mpolo seems to be an entirely new beast.

I pulled this quote out on looking back over, because it's odd
#HBC | YOLOSWAG wrote:
@frozen

I'm very confident there is at least one scum between jimbob and dimochka to the point I'd advise the vig to off the other should we hit town today. I go back and forth as to who the better play is. I'm down with both wagons and know town can get something fruitful from that direction; a dimochka/jimbob focus provides town a reliable safety net. In addition, nearly the entire game has commented on both players which should prove useful for post-flip analysis.

FYI: When players get lynched on this site, they don't flip 'til the beginning of the next day if I remember correctly.

How's the vig going to know if we hit town? Especially since in this same post you inform FrozenFlame that players don't flip until morning. This is a nightless game, the vig has to submit a target before they can see the flip. Why not advise pushing a lynch on the other should we have hit town?
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:16 am UTC

Carlington wrote:Extrapolating backwards, we cannot have started at 8/3/1/1 I don't think, unless
Are we told if we're at MYLO/LYLO?
returns true.
Would you explain this comment, Carlington? There are too many negatives there for me to parse that statement. I think there's scope for a second independent in addition to an SK, just something that's likely pro-town (e.g. wins with town after fulfilling their first win con).
FrozenFlame wrote:But if anything I think scum killed bessie for being a general town read, and SK likely killed Plytho for being a tougher kill to trace leads from thanks to Plytho having less content and being more of a neutral read in this group.
What sort of leads do you have in mind? The sort that I can think of usually end up with a heavy dose of wine.
LaserGuy wrote:Mixing up the player's names that you were talking about is a pretty bad slip, and there isn't any reason why GoP would have targeted either player were he a vig anyway
Given this, what did you think of my "Frozenfrog" mistake on D1? The only case where I think there is possible meaning to such a mistake is where there is the possibility of knowing team-mates, which isn't the case here.
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby mpolo » Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:13 am UTC

FrozenFlame wrote:mpolo's early burst of activity quickly post flips rubs me the wrong way as it contrasts heavily to what we saw from him D1. See the second half of my D1 reads post for more detail. Getting hella scummy vibes, seems way too excited to suggest we "go after the SK to slow the game down


There is a pretty manifest real life reason for the difference between D1 and D2. I was on vacation and had limited Internet access until Friday. I stated that even in the signup thread.

I agree with SDK that it is near impossible to target the SK, since we won't have connections to go on. Any scum hit would be good, but taking out the SK would be better, unless he starts targeting mafia tonight. (Which, I suppose, is in his interest.)

I still have my reads from yesterday, SDK, which would be #HBC | Yoloswag and BoomFrog. (There hasn't been enough content today to change those really.) Hopefully, I can get more later today.
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 1 - Mistrust

Postby #HBC | YOLOSWAG » Wed Apr 26, 2017 4:14 pm UTC

@Carlington, mpolo, jimbob, GoP

Do you guys have any opinion of FrozenFlame? I recall most of you had him in nullsville but I'm wondering if anything has changed since he's become a little more involved.

@Carlington

I said "vig should off the other if we hit town" out of habit. My homesite shows flips immediately on the lynch. I'm aware I showed cognizance of flips not being until the beginning of the next day, but it just came out after literally years of using that phrase in case of mislynching town.

Quick hit on my end, I'll be here later today y'all.

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby #HBC | YOLOSWAG » Wed Apr 26, 2017 4:22 pm UTC

Actually, one more;

@Frozen

If you get a chance to reread Laserguy vs. jimbob, has your perception of that back-and-forth changed since your exchange with laser?

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Apr 26, 2017 5:20 pm UTC

Just to make this clear to the SK: things went as bad for town as they possibly could last night. One more extra town death tonight probably means game over for town and SK and we lose together.

Moving on, there are likely for scum out of ten players right now. I can probably hit scum with the lynch today but we need to buy them every day from now on. So we need strong opinions from our lurker contingent. I want opinions on who the four scum are from mpolo, GoP, carlington, and Zyth. After that's laid down we will have a much better framework for scum hunting.
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:17 pm UTC

I've briefly skimmed FrozenFlame's more recent content, as requested, but don't have time to do a proper re-read (and won't do now until Monday evening). My general feeling is that he has edged to the townier side as he has clearly put a lot of effort into his reads and provided quite detailed explanations with all of them. Although I found the way he wrote his reads posts a little odd initially, I am satisfied enough for now with his explanation. It's different to how I do it (generally I don't have much clue for most players before doing my reads lists, especially my first one), but that's okay. His vote for mpolo certainly seems justified on the surface, though I haven't reread mpolo yet to form an updated opinion on him to see if I agree.
BoomFrog wrote:So we need strong opinions from our lurker contingent. I want opinions on who the four scum are from mpolo, GoP, carlington, and Zyth
Just to be clear, because I misread this the first time I read it, are you targeting these four because you consider them lurkers? I assume you expect opinions from everyone else automatically? You also seem to be awfully confident that there are exactly 4 scum left at the moment. Don't get me wrong, I think that this is likely the case, as it sounds like the most balanced overall, but what makes you so sure about this?
mpolo wrote:I agree with SDK that it is near impossible to target the SK, since we won't have connections to go on.
mpolo's delayed agreement here badly pinged me. Are you saying that we can only identify scum because of the connections they have with other players? If so, I completely disagree. bessie and I both identified Carlington as the Serial Killer in the last game, after reading his posts (although I later changed my mind on this, but that's a different story) and noticing how he had tried to downplay the SK for much of the early game. How he interacted with other players, at least to me, didn't really come into this. After a night of results, we also have further information to go on that may or may not help individuals to identify the SK.
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby LaserGuy » Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:05 pm UTC

Some updated reads as I try to piece things together.

BoomFrog:
Leaning scum

Claims he tried to act deliberately scummy to draw out attention. Possible. Doesn’t mean he isn’t also scum, though. Reads have some weird errors that don’t make a lot of sense, and just now didn’t seem to know the game setup. I don’t feel as strongly about him as I did when he was lurking, but he definitely seems off to me. Still reading pretty scummy to me.

I don’t really have a good feel for possible scumbuddies for BoomFrog yet. If Carlington is scum, BoomFrog is not, and vice versa.


Carlington:
Leaning scum

I've downgraded Carlington a bit since my last read of him. His first post of D2 was troubling. He was trying to connect jimbob + GoP at the end of D1, then immediately fingered GoP as a potential misfire on plytho (later corrected to bessie). Revealing extra info on his role was either sloppy town play, or weird scum play. I think the name error points away from him being SK, but I could imagine such an error cropping up if that line of reasoning was being seeded to him in scumchat by another player.

If Carlington is scum, then I think both GoP and BoomFrog are likely non-scum. GoP because Carlington seems to be trying to incriminate him; BoomFrog because he'd never have made that error about Carlington being newbie town if they had scumchat. If Carlington is scum, SDK could be as well since both have been pointing at GoP.


FrozenFlame:
Neutral

Quiet for a long time due to IRL reasons, gets a big reads list in just before the deadline. I appreciate his meta read on YOLOSWAG, since nobody else knows much about him (except Zyth, I suppose... will come back to this later) and he hasn't been super busy. Nothing in his reads stand out to me as particularly problematic, even in cases where I don’t agree. Came out swinging in D2, singles out Carlington and mpolo. Looks townie at first blush, but I’m assuming that he’s experienced enough that I wouldn’t be able to tell the difference at this point. Marking him neutral until I see how he interacts with people a bit more. Would love to see a read on him from YOLOSWAG and Zyth.


Gopher of Pern:
Leaning scum

Does a few quick initial reads that includes a useless read on mpolo. When this is pointed out, we get this exchange:
Gopher of Pern wrote:
#HBC | YOLOSWAG wrote:FOS Gopher
This post rubbed me the wrong way because there's a lot of "however, but" in these reads. It reminds me of scum being very choosy with his words and avoiding linking himself to anyone. Also, he said these are his first thoughts on a skim read. So that means that one of the first things he feels the town should know is that mpolo is null due to playing to his meta? I don't mean that in some kind of mocking way, I just find it hard to believe that that thought would be one of the first things he wants to share as town.


There was one however, and I've now realised that it was a mistake. I'm sorry for trying to analyse all the information, instead of blindly picking one fault and running with it. And your other concern is handled below.


I have absolutely no idea what Gopher is trying to say here. I don't know that this is townie or scummy... I just can't parse anything meaningful out of these words, or how they in any way relate to the question being asked. I also raise a skeptical eyebrow in YOLOSWAG's direction that he let this nonsense slide.

He continues on with another strange read of mpolo:
I don't think that's very likely, but I do get the sense that mpolo is the type of player that may deliberately make that slip as scum, to throw off players. I was less sure of jimbob doing that deliberately.

If GoP is scum, I think mpolo likely is too. Unlikely to be scum if Carlington and/or SDK are. The light reads and low interaction also make him a potential candidate for the SK, I guess, but I feel like scum is more likely here.


#HBC | YOLOSWAG:
Likely town

A couple of questions for YOLOSWAG based on by earlier readthroughs. First, can you give a read on FrozenFlame now that he's posted some content? Second, what did you think of GoP's reply to you in response to your question about his quick reads list (see the read just above). Overall read here is still pretty townie.


#HBC | Zyth:
Leaning Town/Possible SK

I don't really feel like I have a lot to work with as far as Zyth goes. He's been asking questions and poking around, but has mostly been keeping a very low profile. Few comprehensive reads on anyone to date. I would be very interested in what he thinks of YOLOSWAG and FrozenFlame’s content so far, since presumably he knows their respective metas.

Feels townie, but the quiet, not-quite-lurky behaviour without too much interaction with any one person, not giving any strong opinions on too much, also makes me think it’s possible he’s the SK trying to lay low and build up townie points. Bears watching, but marking as townie for now.


jimbobmacdoodle
Leaning scum

Started out the game appearing really off-balance, both in his interactions with me and with bessie. Content seems much more solid recently, though that could be because the pressure hasn't been on him so much recently too, or he is being more careful now that it has been pointed out. As a result, I don’t think his improved content recently absolves him from his earlier scumminess. I am hesitant to read too much intent into night kills, but based on previous interactions, scum!jimbob or SK!jimbob definitely stood the most to gain by the death of bessie.

Zyth might be a possibility as a scummate. jimbob's town read of him seems quite strong given the fairly limited content Zyth has posted so far.

In response to this:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Given this, what did you think of my "Frozenfrog" mistake on D1? The only case where I think there is possible meaning to such a mistake is where there is the possibility of knowing team-mates, which isn't the case here.

Carlington is claiming he read through everyone’s reads list looking for bessie and plytho, identified GoP’s list as having bessie reading scummy, but not so scummy as YOLOSWAG. The name is the crucial piece of information that he is looking for. He shouldn’t get this wrong. In the FrozenFrog case, you were answering an unrelated question. That was also at the start of the game, where as this is well into it.


mpolo
Neutral/Possible SK

I believe the slip about scum not coordinating is genuine, so I strongly doubt mpolo is among the scum team. If this had been made early in D1, maybe, but this slip was made several days into play. A lot of his posts seem fairly laid back and low content. I dislike some recent comments like this:
mpolo wrote:I agree with SDK that it is near impossible to target the SK, since we won't have connections to go on. Any scum hit would be good, but taking out the SK would be better, unless he starts targeting mafia tonight. (Which, I suppose, is in his interest.)

That seem somewhat misleading to me. Yes, we don’t necessarily have connections to go on to find the SK, but we may be able to use the SK’s lack of connections to pinpoint them. His lack of concern for sleuthing out the SK is disconcerting. I find myself agreeing with FrozenFlame that mpolo looks like a good candidate for the SK.


SDK:
Leaning town

SDK wrote:I'm an abrasive, caustic, uncooperative, antagonistic jerk.

This read is spot on. I’ve struggled to read SDK a lot this game being on the receiving end of some of that. My last read on him was admittedly pretty incoherent. Once he’s got in the thick of things though, his content has definitely gotten much less prickly and more focused. Reads list looks reasonable to me. I’m curious about this comment, though:
SDK wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:Dimochka: Was initially very weird. Would make points, then back off them unnecessarily, I feel. Then a big analysis post, which seems ok on the surface, but ultimately doesn't say a lot. Then promises to answer questions later, but hasn't replied since. Having looked a bit closer, I can see why the wagon is hitched, and I can't say I blame them. I'd very possibly vote for them if they weren't at L-1.


I don't like this read. If dimochka flips town, I'm coming for you. Otherwise... I might still be coming for you, actually. Need more content. Your reads are partial. Maybe scum

What do you find scummy in particular about this? Why is it scummy regardless of whether dimochka is town or scum?

Leaning town, but if he’s scum, I expect Carlington is as well.


Town
LaserGuy
#HBC | YOLOSWAG
#HBC | Zyth*
SDK
FrozenFlame
mpolo*
Gopher of Pern
Carlington
jimbob
BoomFrog
Scum

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:17 pm UTC

I've been fairly busy so I'll be doing my reread this weekend. I think Yolo is town and I'm also leaning towards town on Frozen.

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby Gopher of Pern » Thu Apr 27, 2017 1:18 am UTC

Briefly going over the dimochka wagon, one thing mostly stood out to me: most people voted on them without justification at first. The one that sticks out more is YOLOSWAG's vote. That, along with my other suspicions of YOLO will make me

Vote: YOLOSWAG

I truly believe Carlington's slip was a genuine one, trying to put some pressure on me, and slipping up. I doubt town|Carlington would make that sort of mistake.

LaserGuy wrote:
Gopher of Pern:
Leaning scum

Does a few quick initial reads that includes a useless read on mpolo. When this is pointed out, we get this exchange:
Gopher of Pern wrote:
#HBC | YOLOSWAG wrote:FOS Gopher
This post rubbed me the wrong way because there's a lot of "however, but" in these reads. It reminds me of scum being very choosy with his words and avoiding linking himself to anyone. Also, he said these are his first thoughts on a skim read. So that means that one of the first things he feels the town should know is that mpolo is null due to playing to his meta? I don't mean that in some kind of mocking way, I just find it hard to believe that that thought would be one of the first things he wants to share as town.


There was one however, and I've now realised that it was a mistake. I'm sorry for trying to analyse all the information, instead of blindly picking one fault and running with it. And your other concern is handled below.


I have absolutely no idea what Gopher is trying to say here. I don't know that this is townie or scummy... I just can't parse anything meaningful out of these words, or how they in any way relate to the question being asked. I also raise a skeptical eyebrow in YOLOSWAG's direction that he let this nonsense slide.

He continues on with another strange read of mpolo:
I don't think that's very likely, but I do get the sense that mpolo is the type of player that may deliberately make that slip as scum, to throw off players. I was less sure of jimbob doing that deliberately.

If GoP is scum, I think mpolo likely is too. Unlikely to be scum if Carlington and/or SDK are. The light reads and low interaction also make him a potential candidate for the SK, I guess, but I feel like scum is more likely here.



YOLO was trying to say I hedged my bets. I did on one read, and was mistaken in hedging at that time (thought jimbob hadn't considered daychat, when it was mpolo). He was trying to fling mud at me. I also addressed why I did the reads I did. The fact they ignored my response is interesting.

Why is that a strange read of mpolo? Do you not believe mpolo is capable of doing that?

Re: Frozenflame, they seem to be missing things in the thread, but they have a RL excuse, so I can't read too much into that. I'm really not sure which side they're on.
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Apr 27, 2017 4:17 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:So we need strong opinions from our lurker contingent. I want opinions on who the four scum are from mpolo, GoP, carlington, and Zyth
Just to be clear, because I misread this the first time I read it, are you targeting these four because you consider them lurkers? I assume you expect opinions from everyone else automatically? You also seem to be awfully confident that there are exactly 4 scum left at the moment. Don't get me wrong, I think that this is likely the case, as it sounds like the most balanced overall, but what makes you so sure about this?
I don't know that there are four but it's going to be four or five, and it's probably four. What I'm tired of is people only picking one scummy person when we have so much to go on now. Imagine my question is, if you had four day kills to use right now who would you kill?

I picked those four because they are lurking or active lurking D1 and we need everyone's opinions out there to be analyzed. Obviously once those four post I would like to hear from everyone else as well and I will put out my analysis too.
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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby #HBC | Zyth » Thu Apr 27, 2017 4:40 am UTC

Pre reread, I have mpolo, carlington, laserguy and jimbob on my list, with the latter 2 being my weaker, fairly neutral reads. It could change post reread though that'll only be during the weekends.

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Re: The Dark Tower - Day 2 - Misfortune

Postby mpolo » Thu Apr 27, 2017 5:07 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
mpolo wrote:I agree with SDK that it is near impossible to target the SK, since we won't have connections to go on.
mpolo's delayed agreement here badly pinged me. Are you saying that we can only identify scum because of the connections they have with other players? If so, I completely disagree. bessie and I both identified Carlington as the Serial Killer in the last game, after reading his posts (although I later changed my mind on this, but that's a different story) and noticing how he had tried to downplay the SK for much of the early game. How he interacted with other players, at least to me, didn't really come into this. After a night of results, we also have further information to go on that may or may not help individuals to identify the SK.


No, I was trying to say that there's not a big difference between SK-scummy and general-scummy once you take out the connections factor. But you are right that there are other aspects to this that I was not considering.

Will try to read some more later today.
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