Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D6)

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jan 27, 2017 1:24 pm UTC

Effective immediately, Madge will be replacing moody.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 27, 2017 1:26 pm UTC

Yay, Madge! :D

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby matt96 » Fri Jan 27, 2017 4:24 pm UTC

I'm here, just got my laptop back from being repaired, but it came back without the charger, which means I continur to be stuck phone posting until I get it back. Given that I've already shown a power and earlier ajah power speculation, it should come as no surprise that my ajah is grey. As far as why I voted for Deimo, I had a few reasons, including but not limited to valuing Bessie's contributions more than Deimo's and wanting to see who, if anyone, would switch the lynch. Forums went down while I was typing this up the first time, so let me know if I missed anything that has been asked of me or that you would like my thoughts on.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 27, 2017 4:36 pm UTC

Some thoughts:

- SirGabriel and Gopher of Pern seem to form a coalition, would not be surprised if they'd claim Mason.
- dimochka needs to provide some content urgently. We're already halfway through the day with the weekend coming up.

@Carlington: you summarized moody's content but didn't provide a read on him. Why?

@matt96: how about a read-list?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby dimochka » Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:45 pm UTC

JudeMorrigan wrote:The board wouldn't let me connect to it last night

Oh good, then it wasn't just me. This is why I didn't post yesterday. xkcd.com would pull up, but forums would not.

My current thoughs:
1. The wagon on D1 was very unsettling, I don't know how this suddenly materialized.
2.
moody7277 wrote:
dimochka wrote:Also I don't like that people keep putting those with flavor knowledge as more townie.


Your point being, I assume, that flavor discussion is a good position from which to active lurk?

Yes, exactly.
3. Moody vs. Jude read - I decided to go back and try to figure out why jude pinged me so much more, and I think i did. There's a couple of things. First of all, jude's order - he's got town, neutral, no clue, scum, but then back to no clue. what jumped out at me was putting gop/matt above ahippo, but having carlington below. I would've put them all together if there was no read. moody had an opinion on everyone. Second, it wasn't just about the list, it was about the explanations. jude's top town picks are based on me vs. bessie. i'm pretty sure there's more to talk about. moody's post came through as more comprehensive and not focusing on only one part of the day (and jude didn't explain why they were townie, just that they all analyzed us two?)
4. my joke vote reactions - first to make it clear, the reaction i expected was pretty much what sabrar did. i actually don't like jude's reaction at all.. that joking second vote, even though inconsequential, is often used by scum (no clue why, but it always sticks out to me). other reactions were really not relevant in my opinion. i was going to let it play out for longer but bessie really pushed me there, and i felt she was not doing it as a townie. I'm still unsure about her, thinking she might be an independent or something like diemo.
5. claiming ajah - i'm against claiming and i'll even mention specifically why. my role correlates somewhat with mpolo's suggested list (what colors would result in what roles). i don't actually particularly care about revealing my own role as it's not that great, BUT since mine correlates, i expect that potential cops/vigs/doctors/jailers would too.

I just put together a recap of everyone's posts and am going through it, will have a town to scum list later. i'm trying to analyze carlington's list because i don't like it (might be biased because it seems he downgraded me from town to scummy with almost no reasoning).
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby mpolo » Fri Jan 27, 2017 7:21 pm UTC

Sorry for being light on analysis. I'm going to try to reread a couple of pages now and see what I can get out. Tomorrow is likely pretty booked up.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby mpolo » Fri Jan 27, 2017 8:17 pm UTC

I loaded page 4 and started rereading D2 and then Internet died. So I'm writing this based only on that info. The spoiler below is just my notes, for what it's worth.

Spoiler:
ahippo: considers Brown role "pretty townie". Slight implication that he does not belong to this group. Comfortable with color claim. Defends his statistical work. Feels it is his best way to contribute. Not red, but Ajah not related to alignment. Possible setup ideas. Suggests that Myrddaal are NPC mechanic.

SirGabriel: Suggests color claim. Doesn't want to say why. Dismisses note out of hand. Later gave an argument. Defends his reaction to bessy. Bessie very defensive. Analysis: bessie is scummy. JudeMorrigan, moody slightly scummy (I am indie by this analysis). Bessie hasn't provided more info to change scummy feel. Unaligned is town, but moody doesn't seem to know this.

Sabrar: doesn't like dimochka's response; ahippo has suspicious analysis. Thinks Gopher is tunnelling a little. Matt did claim his double vote subtly. No good info about ahippo from old games. Not ruling out the possibility of a true note. Ideas for how recruitment could work. SirGabriel's readlist is problematic. SirGabriel is tunnelling on bessie. Moody may be trying to get info.

Gopher: matt should have claimed double vote, suspicious of bessie. Jude started the bad wagon. Matt double voted on that wagon as third. Ahippo lots of stats work with little gain. Willing to claim. Bessie dodging questions and being defensive. Still thinks matt should have loudly claimed his double vote.

JudeMorrigan: defends the vote, based on misleading comments about red. No objection to mass claim. Ahippo looking scummier. Analysis with no big conclusions.

bessie: No info. Doesn't want to claim. Calling out my lack of analysis. SirGabriel is ignoring her case against him.

moody: OK with color claim. What does "unaligned" mean. Saw matt's claim.

Carlington: Analysis. Finds ahippo and matt96 most suspicious, bessie towniest. Not necessarily bad to claim colors.


Two people seemed to be somewhat surprised about the unaligned faction: ahippo and moody. That could be caginess or actually not knowing.

bessie is getting a lot of heat from GopherofPern, where that tack has been mostly dropped by others.

A majority has no problem with color claiming. I side with Sabrar on this: Ajah claiming is not going to find the Blacks (as they almost certainly have a "cover" Ajah, probably even a presumably townie power to go with it); It is likely to expose powerful townie roles; there are likely townies with no Ajah (Min, Warders). Bessie is against color claiming, but gave no argument.

I'm currently wary of: Gopher, bessie, and ahippo. [I suspect that Gopher and bessie are not of the same faction, of course.]

JudeMorrigan also tends to have little in concrete ideas.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 27, 2017 9:00 pm UTC

I've been meaning to do a vote-analysis, finally got the time. What is especially interesting that the train on Diemo really started going well after the original (soft) deadline. Let's look at the implications:

1. Suppose bessie is scum: her partners were in no rush to save her.
- dimochka unvoted her shortly before deadline but at that point no guardian angel was in sight and it would have been much more reasonable to leave his vote on her to gain townie-credit.
- moody starts the train with the second vote on Diemo 1.5 hours after deadline. Unless matt is also his partner he could not have anticipated that enough people would vote for Diemo before a mod comes online (jimbob noted earlier that the grace period would be 3 hours max). Or he could have resigned bessie to her fate and started pushing Diemo for the D2 lynch. Also moody had a choice which train to start between ahippo and Diemo, if he's scum it is possible that he chose Diemo because ahippo is his scum-buddy.
- matt ties the votals. This is the most suspicious moment. As mentioned before I'm not ready to rule out completely scum with double-vote.
- I put Diemo in the lead (was ninja'd by matt).
- mod declares N1.

Most likely scum-buddy of bessie in order: matt, moody
Honorable mention: ahippo, who might have thought that jumping onto her wagon that late would earn him townie-points, especially if he declares before that he doesn't consider her as scum.

2. Suppose bessie is Town:
- dimochka's unvote just brings attention to him (assuming bessie would have been lynched). Unlikely play by scum.
- scum!moody starts to set up Diemo for D2 while distancing himself from her lynch
- scum!matt would probably not reveal his ability (though if he thinks that his power will be considered as 'never given to scum' then it's possible). Still, why would he save bessie? Unless he thinks that bessie is completely off-point with her suspects and wants her around for that purpose.

Most likely scum in order: moody, matt, dimochka
Honorable mention: SirGabriel + Gopher of Pern who put bessie firmly in the lead and 'comfortably' weren't around deadline to possibly change their votes.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Carlington » Fri Jan 27, 2017 9:23 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@Carlington: you summarized moody's content but didn't provide a read on him. Why?

Genuine accident, that. FWIW, moody sits just a hair to the town side of neutral. Also, I didn't understand your phrasing in your last response to me. What did you mean by "the reasoning is on the point"?
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:01 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:What did you mean by "the reasoning is on the point"?
Slightly wrong idiom.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:20 pm UTC

Vote: ahippo

I really don't like the way they are ignoring everything else in the game aside from flavour speculation and the statistics analysis, even after it has been pointed out to them. I also suspect, due to my suspicion on bessie, they were trying to get towny points for voting on them. I could provide reasoning both ways, but I suppose that is just playing into reason that I think they're scummy (IF bessie is scum, they thought they were doomed, and so jumped on to look towny / IF bessie is town, they had a disclaimer that they thought they were town anyway.)

mpolo is looking a little better, given the benefit of the doubt in regards to computer problems.

Following on from Sabrars vote analysis, I had pretty much the same ideas, but slightly different conclusions. I had Jude and matt a bit higher than moody and Sabrar, simply because they didn't provide decent enough reasoning.

My current town to scum list:
GopherofPern
Carlington
SirGabriel
dimochka
mpolo
Sabrar
moody/Madge
matt
Jude
Bessie
ahippo

The positions at the top is a bit wishywashy.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby JudeMorrigan » Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:36 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:JudeMorrigan also tends to have little in concrete ideas.

Tell me, do you mean in this game in particular of mafia in general? Because I don't know if I could fault you for the latter. I've really struggled to find a productive voice for myself in the game of mafia. All I can say is that I *am* trying.

@dim: One of the main reasons I joined this game (the other being bessie's post asking for two more players to sign up) is that I love the Wheel of Time. I saw an opportunity for some flavor inspired silliness and I took it. That much I won't apologize for. The rest though ... all I can do is repeat what I said to mpolo. Although I will note that your post's the sort of criticism of me that gets a person townie-points from me. Misguided though it may be, it's at least based on what I actually said and did.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby SirGabriel » Sat Jan 28, 2017 1:43 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:False. I am willing to reconsider it, but she has yet to provide any justification for the things I found scummy. Scum can, and often do, produce good content, so we can't just ignore scummy actions because of good content.
Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks to me like you are saying that you will find her scummy no matter what she does until that point is explained. So you are basing your whole case against her on one specific thing while ignoring everything else.

I'm not ignoring anything. I look at her posts and I see a couple of scummy things, and some good content which could come from either scum or town, but nothing that is clearly townie. If she does something that I consider clearly townie, or if future flips suggest that her content is a sincere attempt at scumhunting, then I will certainly reconsider my opinion of her. And I will also reconsider it if she ever explains those actions which I found scummy. But, at least until we have more flips, having good content is not going to be enough to convince me of her towniness.

Sabrar wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:So either this game is way too complicated for the number of players, or moody is unaligned/town but for some reason hasn't realized the two are essentially synonymous in this game, or moody didn't realize unaligned=town because he is in some other faction and thus only knew of one unaligned player (Diemo) instead of the two (Diemo and himself) he would have known of if he were unaligned.
Didn't it occur to you that moody just wanted to see what information others might have about the setup, without revealing anything about himself? If he has the same 'unaligned' alignment and win-con as Diemo did then he would have no info about the rest of the factions.

No, that didn't occur to me, but that is a good point.

JudeMorrigan wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:JudeMorrigan - Some setup speculation based on flavor. Not-very-useful town-to-scum list. Finds bessie townie and ahippo scummy (or at least likely non-town). Then votes Diemo, not for lurking but for one comment about it being possible that someone other than Black is the mafia (which is not an unreasonable comment for a flavor-knowledgeable townie to make, especially if he missed the one mention of the Black Ajah in the opening flavor). Slightly scummy.

Ok, I've got to ask - what the hell? I've explained my logic behind my vote for Diemo twice now, and that is *not* an accurate description of it. His suggesting that the reds might be the mafia was only part of it - the *lesser* part. It was his flat out wrong statement about the leadership of the reds and the blacks that put me over the edge. And if he'd missed the reference to the black ajah in the flavor, it's not as if there hadn't been plenty of very open talk of it in the thread.

I'm sorry if I misinterpreted you, but let me explain my reasoning. Here is the relevant part of Diemo's post:
Diemo wrote:It seems likely to me that the Black Ajah is the mafia, as they are the bad guys in the books. This isn't necessarily the case though, as there is an argument that the Red Ajah are the mafia.

Book spoilers (potentially later than book 4/5, I can't remember)
Spoiler:
The Red Ajah were the ones who disposed of Suain Sanche

Definitely from like book 9 or so
Spoiler:
The leader of the red Ajah turned out to also be the leader of the Black

I counted that as one comment by Diemo, and your entire case against him is based on that one comment. I did not explicitly mention the part about him misrepresenting flavor because I didn't think I needed to - it was already included within what I said about your vote being based on that one comment of his, and I did not realize that it was a major part of your reason for voting him. You said that it was what pushed you over the edge, which could mean either that it was a major part of your reasoning or that, while it had little weight on its own, it was the straw the broke the camel's back. The former would imply that your vote was based primarily on something that was far more likely to be a genuine mistake than a scumslip (why would scum intentionally give misinformation about flavor when that information can easily be shown to be false?), so I gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed it was the latter.
Also, up to Diemo's post, all discussion in the thread concerning the black Ajah had just been presenting or agreeing with the theory that black Ajah are mafia. If Diemo didn't notice the mention of black Ajah in the opening flavor, then presenting a theory in which red is mafia (and black is not in the game) was perfectly reasonable at the time.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Madge » Sat Jan 28, 2017 2:57 am UTC

Today's not great for me, unfortunately, and while I tried to follow the thread I didn't do so as closely as I would have liked, and my role is a bit complicated and that's made even worse by the fact that I don't have any idea about flavour (thanks to jimbob for patiently answering my questions - I suspect if I knew the flavour everything would make perfect sense). So I'm going to have to have another read-through before I say anything substantial.

My biggest thought is ahippo's analysis post yesterday. It really jumped out at me. It's a heck of a lot of effort to go to, and it seems almost pointless (like, what is the BEST CASE scenario? It proves that lynching someone for having a weird confirm post is actually good, and that lynching based on "slips" is bad? And that's the BEST CASE scenario?). It's the sort of thing scum would do not to look suspicious, but then the final conclusion (that lynching town is not the end of the world) is SO SCUMMY that it's like.......... why would you even????? Like, no scum would do something that monumentally scummy, would they? Sorry to bring this back up, I think everyone maybe already discussed it, but I needed to say this.

I'm not going to claim my colour yet because I don't have a feel for whether that's a good idea or not. I'm still trying to make sense of everything.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 28, 2017 7:49 am UTC

@ahippo (non-game content)
Spoiler:
ahippo wrote:I consider it correct to not capitalize the 'a' in ahippo even at the beginning of a sentence, so thanks for that.
I put a lot of effort into trying to get everyone’s name correct, but spell check usually screws it up!

Re: color claiming:
SirGabriel wrote: But what's the difference between brown and gray? I have no idea, and I have no evidence that it matters. If I recall correctly, there's only been one post so far that suggested that there might be a particular importance to each individual color such that remembering every single color on the list would matter.

Well I think the cat is out of the bag on this one. Some of us believe powers are tied to the colors.
mpolo wrote:Red : punishes wrong use of power (maybe a role-block or jailer?)
Green : readies itself for battle (vigilante?)
Gray: diplomacy, mediation, politics (something with votes?)
Brown: knowledge (some sort of investigative role?)
Yellow: healing (obvious doctor here)
Blue: righteousness and justice (some kind of cop?)
White: logic and philosophy (some kind of cop?)

This fits with Diemo’s role and Matt’s claim. So there is some indication that even if mpolo’s guesses aren’t all correct, jimbobmacdoodle used the colors as inspiration for the powers, and the non-flavor blind among us can probably easily figure them out.

On SirGabriel's continuing suspicion of me:
SirGabriel wrote:I'm not ignoring anything. I look at her posts and I see a couple of scummy things, and some good content which could come from either scum or town, but nothing that is clearly townie. If she does something that I consider clearly townie, or if future flips suggest that her content is a sincere attempt at scumhunting, then I will certainly reconsider my opinion of her. And I will also reconsider it if she ever explains those actions which I found scummy. But, at least until we have more flips, having good content is not going to be enough to convince me of her towniness.
I feel I have been over this already, but it’s possible that I am just misunderstanding something, so I’ll ask. SirGabriel, why exactly do you find me scummy?

And finally this:
JudeMorrigan wrote:Tell me, do you mean in this game in particular of mafia in general? Because I don't know if I could fault you for the latter. I've really struggled to find a productive voice for myself in the game of mafia. All I can say is that I *am* trying.

@dim: One of the main reasons I joined this game (the other being bessie's post asking for two more players to sign up) is that I love the Wheel of Time. I saw an opportunity for some flavor inspired silliness and I took it. That much I won't apologize for. The rest though ... all I can do is repeat what I said to mpolo. Although I will note that your post's the sort of criticism of me that gets a person townie-points from me. Misguided though it may be, it's at least based on what I actually said and did.
And I for one am glad that you decided to sign up. You disappeared during Once Upon a Mafia and I didn’t even know you still read games until your Gojoe comment about MMM II.

What qualifies as productive content in a mafia game is a matter of opinion (for examples, like, read this thread?). My belief is that its best to post and let everyone know what you think, and don’t worry about making every post a work of art.

More tomorrow, I had an especially long day at work.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Carlington » Sat Jan 28, 2017 7:57 am UTC

On that note regarding Ajahs and powers, I still think Sabrar's FoS on everyone who disagrees is too much. I understand the link just fine, I just don't think anyone has enough data points yet to be that certain.

Food now, more post in a bit.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sat Jan 28, 2017 8:25 am UTC

That's not exactly what I said, you're absolutely free to disagree without being scum. However if you don't understand (or rather pretend not to understand) the reasoning and actively push for an all-reveal without considering it then that will earn you my FoS.
Or at least that was my point when I made that comment but it's rather moot now.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Carlington » Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:41 am UTC

It is moot now, so I suppose there's enough said and I'll drop it with an apology. To me, though, my disagreement seemed to be rejected outright, which suggested that disagreement would be regarded as a lack of understanding and summarily a mark in the scum column.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby mpolo » Sat Jan 28, 2017 10:07 am UTC

@JudeMorrigan: I was referring to this game in particular, and it was an off-handed comment. I have not yet attached meaning to it, as there are lots of reasons to be cautious with opinions early in the game.

IF we have a recruiter mechanic, then we either need a mafia of limited size or limited number of recruits, or some sort of extra town-controlled kill. All of which are possible, which means that I won't be ignoring the note I received entirely. On the other hand, there's not that big a difference in scum-hunting (other than looking for radical changes from day to day).
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 28, 2017 6:38 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:On that note regarding Ajahs and powers, I still think Sabrar's FoS on everyone who disagrees is too much. I understand the link just fine, I just don't think anyone has enough data points yet to be that certain.

Perhaps, but I believe there are enough data points for each player to make his own preliminary evaluation. Every player has access to three indisputable pieces of evidence, bolded by the mod.

1. Diemo’s role PM.
2. Matt’s double vote.
3. Their own role PM.

Also, not proof, but there’s this claim.
dimochka wrote:claiming ajah - i'm against claiming and i'll even mention specifically why. my role correlates somewhat with mpolo's suggested list (what colors would result in what roles). i don't actually particularly care about revealing my own role as it's not that great, BUT since mine correlates, i expect that potential cops/vigs/doctors/jailers would too.


And there's also this claim. I'm not sure what to make of it, but I'll put it here for consideration.
SirGabriel wrote:Does anyone object to having a mass claim of our colors? I have information that might be useful if everyone first claims their color.


There’s no proof colors always correlate with colors. There’s no proof colors are tied to alignment. But there’s enough to make me wary of a mass claim. And SirGabriel, I would consider claiming if you have evidence that will lead directly to scum, like you witnessed a Myrddrall plotting with a Red. But if it’s something like you have a night result that all Blues are town, I think it might be better to wait.

Just for completeness, players that I think probably don’t have powers that correlate with colors.
ahippo wrote:Personally, I'm comfortable with claiming my Ajah, but I came to the conclusion that it probably wouldn't give us any useful information.

JudeMorrigan wrote:I have no particular objection to a mass-ajah claim.

moody7277 wrote:Third, I would be okay declaring colors. I find it interesting that the person most fervently against it is bessie. Sabrar at least has a game mechanic concern about it.

Carlington wrote:I have no issue claiming my colour, and I have ideas about how it might prove useful.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Sat Jan 28, 2017 6:44 pm UTC

bessie wrote:SirGabriel, I would consider claiming if you have evidence that will lead directly to scum, like you witnessed a Myrddrall plotting with a Red. But if it’s something like you have a night result that all Blues are town, I think it might be better to wait.

I agree. At this point it appears that a mass color reveal will probably help scum more than my result will help town.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sat Jan 28, 2017 8:48 pm UTC

The discussion started to become more heated, as the collected sisters began to throw further accusations at each other. However, the sun was already dipping low in the sky. If they were going to act that day, they'd need to do it soon.

Votals:

ahippo(1): Gopher of Pern

Not voting: everybody else.


Soft deadline is at 7pm UTC on Monday 30th of January. Please submit night actions before then (you are welcome to revise them later). Please note that I would like to keep night to only a couple of hours this time, due to my availability after that. If I haven't received your night action by 9pm UTC on Monday, you may not get to use it.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby mpolo » Sat Jan 28, 2017 8:54 pm UTC

So, I really don't want to start a wagon at this point, but I really need to be getting a vote down as well. At present, I am thinking of voting ahippo, but I will wait until tomorrow when I can make sure that I agree with the feeling I have right now skimming.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:25 pm UTC

I guess now's a good time to get a vote down.

Vote: JudeMorrigan

I would also be okay with a bessie lynch.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby JudeMorrigan » Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:38 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:
JudeMorrigan wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:JudeMorrigan - Some setup speculation based on flavor. Not-very-useful town-to-scum list. Finds bessie townie and ahippo scummy (or at least likely non-town). Then votes Diemo, not for lurking but for one comment about it being possible that someone other than Black is the mafia (which is not an unreasonable comment for a flavor-knowledgeable townie to make, especially if he missed the one mention of the Black Ajah in the opening flavor). Slightly scummy.

Ok, I've got to ask - what the hell? I've explained my logic behind my vote for Diemo twice now, and that is *not* an accurate description of it. His suggesting that the reds might be the mafia was only part of it - the *lesser* part. It was his flat out wrong statement about the leadership of the reds and the blacks that put me over the edge. And if he'd missed the reference to the black ajah in the flavor, it's not as if there hadn't been plenty of very open talk of it in the thread.

I'm sorry if I misinterpreted you, but let me explain my reasoning. Here is the relevant part of Diemo's post:
Diemo wrote:It seems likely to me that the Black Ajah is the mafia, as they are the bad guys in the books. This isn't necessarily the case though, as there is an argument that the Red Ajah are the mafia.

Book spoilers (potentially later than book 4/5, I can't remember)
Spoiler:
The Red Ajah were the ones who disposed of Suain Sanche

Definitely from like book 9 or so
Spoiler:
The leader of the red Ajah turned out to also be the leader of the Black

I counted that as one comment by Diemo, and your entire case against him is based on that one comment. I did not explicitly mention the part about him misrepresenting flavor because I didn't think I needed to - it was already included within what I said about your vote being based on that one comment of his, and I did not realize that it was a major part of your reason for voting him. You said that it was what pushed you over the edge, which could mean either that it was a major part of your reasoning or that, while it had little weight on its own, it was the straw the broke the camel's back. The former would imply that your vote was based primarily on something that was far more likely to be a genuine mistake than a scumslip (why would scum intentionally give misinformation about flavor when that information can easily be shown to be false?), so I gave you the benefit of the doubt and assumed it was the latter.
Also, up to Diemo's post, all discussion in the thread concerning the black Ajah had just been presenting or agreeing with the theory that black Ajah are mafia. If Diemo didn't notice the mention of black Ajah in the opening flavor, then presenting a theory in which red is mafia (and black is not in the game) was perfectly reasonable at the time.

Ok, that seems a lot fairer to me. Let me clear things up then on how I was looking at things. I made an observation early on that I had a feeling that at least some of the scum were keeping a low profile. I didn't it was necessary to explicitly reiterate that point in the post where I voted for Diemo (my bad, apparently), but that had already had him on my lynch-candidate-list. Then I was writing the draft of the post where I placed the vote. I had initially voted for ahippo while writing that post. Then I started to review Diemo and I began by noting his thought about the reds potentially being mafia was interesting. Not anything more than that, just interesting. Then I hit his comment under the spoiler, and realized that it was just flat out wrong. Really, really wrong. That flipped a switch for me, I revaluated his comment about the reds potentially being mafia (a different comment, from my pov), indeed trying to figure out why he would have done it.

Anyways, none of it would have been sufficient on its own, but taken as a whole, I felt it was the best I had to go on. And, well ... I know this is a stupid, weasley thing to say - but I had fully expected to get to hear his rebuttal this game day.

And and hour and a half later ... merf. Aside from the previously mentioned me-focused bits by GoP and SG that rang falsely to me, nothing I'm reading is setting off alarm bells. The best lead I've got is ahippo's continued active-lurkiness and the screwy-as-hell logic for his vote on bessie.

(This was all written before SG placed his vote. Ah well, doesn't change anything.)

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby JudeMorrigan » Sat Jan 28, 2017 9:48 pm UTC

And what the hell. As leery as I may be about wagons right now:

vote: ahippo

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Sat Jan 28, 2017 11:06 pm UTC

Jude's explanation makes sense to me.

Unvote

Vote: bessie

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Carlington » Sun Jan 29, 2017 12:26 am UTC

I find myself still agreeing with my thoughts from yesterday. I'm going to
Vote: ahippo
accordingly.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun Jan 29, 2017 2:21 pm UTC

ahippo: hasn't produced any reads or actual game-related analysis. Still can't see why scum!ahippo would post that statistical analysis and that's the only reason why I'm uncomfortable voting him today but I understand why others are doing so. Would be great if he stopped lurking.

bessie: I think based on how D1 played out, the probability is that bessie is not Mafia. Her attempts at scum-hunting look genuine to me, so I have her as townie right now.

Carlington: posted good content with reasonable pokes/replies, townie.

dimochka: very little content on D2, with more promises. Now that MMMII is finished I am allowed to mention that I saw the same kind of lurking from scum!dimochka there. Scummy.

Gopher of Pern: I feel like he is nit-picking in is attacks versus bessie and matt96 and provides very few reads regarding the other players. Slightly scummy.

JudeMorrigan: my main problem with his content that he spends a lot of time replying to others and provides few reads of his own (I think this is only thing from D2 but please feel free to point out if I missed anything). That is a good way of appearing active but not committing yourself too much. Also I believe this question was missed, so it would be good if you could give it a go (though others are welcome to it as well). Neutral for now.

matt96: No content, if not for double-vote would be obvious lynch-candidate. Very uncomfortable disregarding him just because of that as previous games have also contained scum with vote-manipulating abilities. Scummy.

moody7277/Madge: I found moody's content okay-ish, nothing particular stood out for me. Really hoped Madge would be able to post by now, but her first contribution feels townie to me in tone (though that's usually how I read her anyways). Slightly townie.

mpolo: Little content due to internet issues, I think faking the note would be a very dangerous gambit as scum so I'm more inclined to put him as town.

SirGabriel: I feel (despite his reply to me) that he is deliberately misinterpreting bessie or just simply doesn't take the time to reconsider things. Possibly the latter as he backed off JudeMorrigan in a similar situation after he was given a more detailed explanation. Slightly scummy.

Vote: dimochka

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:59 pm UTC

ahippo has been mod-prodded.

As the sun set, one of the assembled sisters weaved a small ball of light to hang over the proceedings. Stern discussions went back and forth about who could be trusted, but no conclusion had yet been drawn.

Votals:

ahippo(3): Gopher of Pern, JudeMorrigan, Carlington
bessie(1): SirGabriel
dimochka(1): Sabrar

Not voting: everybody else.

With 11 alive, it is 6 to lynch.


Soft deadline is at 7pm UTC on Monday 30th of January (23 hours from now). Please submit night actions before then (you are welcome to revise them later). Please note that I would like to keep night to only a couple of hours this time, due to my availability after that. If I haven't received your night action by 9pm UTC on Monday, you may not get to use it.
Last edited by jimbobmacdoodle on Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:32 am UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:34 am UTC

Sorry, here. Things got busy. I don't plan on leaving the forum until I've posted real content.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby bessie » Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:50 am UTC

Alphabetical D2 reads list. I’m only looking at D2 and I’m concentrating on what sticks out to me. It’s a little light because deadline is in approximately 16(?) hours and I wanted to get something posted in time to discuss. I’ll be around tonight, and if you want me to respond to anything please post before 7:00 am PST.

ahippo – OK with Ajah claim, but doesn't think it will provide any useful information. Claimed not Red or Yellow.
ahippo wrote:The only thing that made him "unaligned" was that he didn't have a horse in the race on who's Amyrlin.
I've noted before that this comment pings me, and it still does. My current theory is that no color (of the 7 official Ajah colors) has the goal of getting their color on the Amyrlin Seat. There’s not enough players in this game. Possibly only the Black Ajah would have this goal
ahippo wrote:We did get off the hook for the NK (assuming there is one) which means some roleblocker probably got it right.
This has been nagging at me since he posted it. Why a roleblocker? Seems odd to me that he didn’t mention a doctor, especially since he answered his own question as to which color he would pick with yellow/healer. At first I thought maybe he was scum that knew the kill was roleblocked, but this is probably not info the mod would give him. One possibility is that scum would know if a scum recruit was blocked.
ahippo wrote: I'll be spending the next twenty-four hours looking at individuals and trying to come up with opinions on them. I can't guarantee a post within that timeframe, but I'll be online. I'm hoping for the rest to join in (especially matt69 because of double voting power). I'm interested to hear what they have to say.
Pushes others for content but he himself hasn't posted since Thursday.


Carlington – Not against mass Ajah claim.
Carlington wrote:I don't want to claim anything just now, but that might change by the end of today. I have no issue claiming my colour, and I have ideas about how it might prove useful.
Carlington never went anywhere with this, but was never pushed for an explanation either. Just bookmarking for now.
Carlington wrote:bessie ...As an aside, I think I like the less patient and more assertive playstyle she's adopted of late.
:twisted:


dimochka – Against mass Ajah claim (which I already commented on).
dimochka wrote: I'm still unsure about her, thinking she might be an independent or something like diemo.
Observation: dimochka and Diemo probably do not have the same win condition.
dimochka wrote: I just put together a recap of everyone's posts and am going through it, will have a town to scum list later.
Still waiting.


Gopher of Pern – Will claim his Ajah if he needs to. I need to think about him a little more.


JudeMorrigan – Initially did not object to mass Ajah claim, became less comfortable with claiming after there had been discussion, but still not against it.
JudeMorrigan wrote:Because right now I'm starting to wonder if you and GoP are trying to manufacture a case on me with your mischaracterizations.
I’m not the only one reading SirGabriel and Gopher of Pern as a team.


matt96 – RL computer issues. Claimed Grey Ajah, claim supported by mod-confirmed vote power. Did not offer an opinion on mass claiming.
matt96 wrote: As far as why I voted for Deimo, I had a few reasons, including but not limited to valuing Bessie's contributions more than Deimo's and wanting to see who, if anyone, would switch the lynch.
So you saw who switched, were you able to draw any conclusions from yesterday’s lynch?


moody7277/Madge – moody was OK with claiming colors, Madge is against claiming until she has time to catch up and figure out what is going on in the game.


mpolo – RL internet problems. Received anonymous note last night, had question for the mod on the wording of Diemo's win condition. Against Ajah claiming for reasons that haven’t been discussed as much as the color=power theory.
mpolo wrote:A majority has no problem with color claiming. I side with Sabrar on this: Ajah claiming is not going to find the Blacks (as they almost certainly have a "cover" Ajah, probably even a presumably townie power to go with it); It is likely to expose powerful townie roles; there are likely townies with no Ajah (Min, Warders).
I want to note this in case I want to come back to it later.


Sabrar – Against mass Ajah claiming, and FoSed everyone who doesn't understand why he has this view.
Sabrar wrote:Diemo's role was so unusual (at least for me) that I wouldn't rule out the possibility just yet.
Observation: Sabrar and Diemo probably do not have the same win condition.
Sabrar wrote:- SirGabriel and Gopher of Pern seem to form a coalition, would not be surprised if they'd claim Mason.
Another player that suspects a connection between these two.


SirGabriel – First post D2 was fishing for support for mass Ajah claim. Later decided that mass claiming would probably help scum more than town. Does not question the existence of mpolo’s note, only the content. I already discussed this.
SirGabriel wrote:bessie - I'll admit that she has some decent content now, but that doesn't make up for everything that pinged me about her before. I have nothing else to say that I haven't said before. Scummy.

Voting for bessie for reasons given in this post on page 2.
SirGabriel wrote:Unless I am mistaken, "unaligned" is this game's equivalent of "town." moody's question suggests that he had not already come to this conclusion. So either this game is way too complicated for the number of players, or moody is unaligned/town but for some reason hasn't realized the two are essentially synonymous in this game, or moody didn't realize unaligned=town because he is in some other faction and thus only knew of one unaligned player (Diemo) instead of the two (Diemo and himself) he would have known of if he were unaligned. I think the last option is the most likely.
Observation: SirGabriel and Diemo probably have the same win condition.


I'll try to draw some conclusions from these reads later tonight.

Ninja'd by ahippo. Looking forward to his content.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:19 am UTC

bessie wrote:
Sabrar wrote:Diemo's role was so unusual (at least for me) that I wouldn't rule out the possibility just yet.
Observation: Sabrar and Diemo probably do not have the same win condition.
Just to clear up any confusion, when I spoke about Diemo's role I was commenting on his ability and not his win-condition.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:39 am UTC

I made an error in the last set of votals (now fixed) where I listed that the day would end in 47 hours from then, when I meant 23. Day end is planned for today at 7pm UTC, approximately 10 and a half hours from now.

If anybody was under the impression that deadline was tomorrow and need an extension, please let me know.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:46 am UTC

I want to start off with a quick clarification:
bessie wrote:Why a roleblocker? Seems odd to me that he didn’t mention a doctor

I was using the term roleblocker to refer to any role that could have blocked the night kill, including doctor. Sorry for the confusion.

It seems like the primary reason I'm leading in the votals is because of my D1 post. I feel like I've given a fairly good explanation of why I thought it was a good idea at the time. Sabrar and Madge are chalking it up to my inexperience. I don't think there's much I can do at this point to change minds, but if there's something, I'll try.

I'm not going to do a full town-to-scum list. Instead I'm going to find find quotes that stick out to me in some way and describe why. Not every player is going to be on this list. These aren't in any particular order, chronologically or otherwise. I'll do my best not to jump to any conclusion that is contradicted by a later post from the player I'm quoting. Ready? Let's begin!

matt96 wrote:Given that I've already shown a power and earlier ajah power speculation, it should come as no surprise that my ajah is grey.

I think putting a double vote in the hands of scum would be too strong. Flavor accurate. Scum might be able to manipulate others' votes, but a personal double vote feels off to me. I'm inclined to think he's town.

SirGabriel wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:Do you have any evidence that the note is telling the truth?
That is such a strange question. How could mpolo have evidence of that, unless he is Black Ajah or was recruited by them, in which case he obviously won't admit it.

It's possible that mpolo received more relevant information that he has chosen not to share yet, so I just wanted to double check.
What are the chances that a town-aligned player could know the information contained in the note and anonymously tell someone about it this early in the game? I think it's more likely that the note is a hoax send by either the mafia or an independent.

If that's true, why wouldn't someone have come out by now to claim they were the one to block the kill, either as doctor or especially as roleblocker? I highly doubt there would have been a counter-claim, and in either situation we get strong information. That's what I would have done if I were in that situation. Scum withholding their kill is highly unlikely to my mind. I believe he received the note and there was a player who has had this information from the start. It's possible, still, that mpolo is scum and he didn't want to appear scummy to the sender and he told us about it so he didn't have someone claiming they sent him something important and he never brought it up. It's even possible we have a WoT 12: TGS Spoilers
Spoiler:
Verin Mathwin
situation where there's a mole in the Black Ajah. I tend to believe the note, and SirGabriel's dismissal of it is concerning.

Sabrar also wrote:Didn't it occur to you that moody just wanted to see what information others might have about the setup, without revealing anything about himself? If he has the same 'unaligned' alignment and win-con as Diemo did then he would have no info about the rest of the factions.

That's a possibility, sure, but why should that let him/Madge off the hook? Anyone could claim it's possible I was too inexperienced to realize what I was doing D1, but that doesn't seem to be convincing anyone that I'm not suspicious. moody could have easily been seeking information on this plurality town faction that comes up 'unaligned' in the role PM. Sabrar put moody/Madge at slightly townie. I disagree, and I think it implicates you as well. Which leads me to...

Madge wrote:Like, no scum would do something that monumentally scummy, would they?

I think it's going to reflect well on Madge to have said this when I get lynched and it turns out I'm not Black Ajah. Considering I bottom out a lot of lists, it's a little odd she thinks my D1 post makes me less likely to be scum. If there's an obvious D2 target like me, scum can use the fact that they know I'm not Black Ajah to appear townie when everyone sees the flip. I guess this is a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" sort of accusation. Maybe she can clear up what she thinks moody was trying to say.

bessie wrote:Welcome back ahippo and JudeMorrigan!

bessie also wrote:ahippo, I think that your analysis is quite interesting, and I think that’s great that you’re trying to compile those statistics.

bessie also wrote:And I for one am glad that you decided to sign up.

Is bessie usually this nice? I'm willing to accept that these might be genuine acts of kindness not related to her role. I'm not convinced they aren't ploys to get me to like her. That dog avatar is playing some mind games with me.

mpolo wrote:there are likely townies with no Ajah (Min, Warders).

I doubt this, unless mpolo has some information that I don't. The flavor suggests pretty hard that we're all full Aes Sedai investigating the Black Ajah in a private space. Myrddraal, warders, or Min feel out of place for the central conflict of this game. ATM I'm not inclined to think mpolo is scummy, but I think he's wrong about this.

This one's not particularly relevant to my thoughts on the player's content, but...
JudeMorrigan wrote: I've really struggled to find a productive voice for myself in the game of mafia. All I can say is that I *am* trying.

One of the main reasons I joined this game (the other being bessie's post asking for two more players to sign up) is that I love the Wheel of Time. I saw an opportunity for some flavor inspired silliness and I took it.

Preach.

Ultimately, the two I'm most suspicious of right now are Sabar and Madge. Whether or not I vote for either will depend on how they respond

I'll end with a claim. Not my Ajah, but my power. I have the ability to read weaves. N2, I can read what powers were used on my target N1. Assuming I survive the day, I'm open to suggestions on whom I should target with this ability.

Damn you, Sabrar, for making me rewrite my thoughts on you from that post you ninja'd me on.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:50 am UTC

I request an extension of the deadline by twelve hours.
I doubt I'm going to make it to D3, but I'd like to get in a bit more before I go, especially in response to my last post.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:02 am UTC

ahippo wrote:If that's true, why wouldn't someone have come out by now to claim they were the one to block the kill, either as doctor or especially as roleblocker?
Because they can't be sure that they were the reason the NK failed. If Doctor claims scum will know who to kill next and meanwhile it is possible that we have e.g. a Bulletproof player who was targeted. Unless you can be reasonably sure that your power had the desired effect it's in my opinion not the best strategy to claim your role.

ahippo wrote:That's a possibility, sure, but why should that let him/Madge off the hook?
I'm not sure I understand what you mean here. If my described scenario is correct, wouldn't that make moody automatically town and thereby 'letting him off the hook'?

ahippo wrote:Ultimately, the two I'm most suspicious of right now are Sabar and Madge.
1. Personal pet peeve: just like you I also appreciate if people spell my name correctly.
2. So my understanding is that you find us scummy primarily because we both think that scum just wouldn't do what you did at the end of D1. Is this correct? Because that's how I'm reading it and it feels like you're accusing us of relying on past experience in scum-hunting. I truly don't know what kind of reply you're expecting here. Should I do your job for you and analyze my previous games where I voted/not voted for a townie/scum?

ahippo wrote:Damn you, Sabrar, for making me rewrite my thoughts on you from that post you ninja'd me on.
What is this referring to? I see no reference to it in your analysis.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby mpolo » Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:11 am UTC

Internet just came back on - bessie's last analysis seems very positive. She especially well points out things that concern me about ahippo. However, ahippo is right that we are implied to be "sisters", so Warders aren't as likely as I thought. Still, he gives a vibe of being certain about things that we can't as a group be certain of. Which makes me think he has extra information of a scummy nature.

Vote:ahippo
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:21 am UTC

ahippo wrote:I want to start off with a quick clarification:
bessie wrote:Why a roleblocker? Seems odd to me that he didn’t mention a doctor

I was using the term roleblocker to refer to any role that could have blocked the night kill, including doctor. Sorry for the confusion.

It seems like the primary reason I'm leading in the votals is because of my D1 post. I feel like I've given a fairly good explanation of why I thought it was a good idea at the time. Sabrar and Madge are chalking it up to my inexperience. I don't think there's much I can do at this point to change minds, but if there's something, I'll try.


I've never heard 'roleblocker' used to describe the doctor. In a game of mafia, miscommunication can be deadly.

The primary reason you are leading the votals is not due to the day 1 post, but due to the utter lack of scum hunting and opinions about other players, which has been pointed out many times. At this point, it's pretty much too little, too late.

Sabrar wrote:Gopher of Pern: I feel like he is nit-picking in is attacks versus bessie and matt96 and provides very few reads regarding the other players. Slightly scummy.


Nitpicky? I can understand bessie, but matt96? Yes, I think they should have declared their double vote, but my thoughts on their scumminess goes beyond just that. Note, they haven't responded why they didn't declare either. I'm starting to think you are misconstruing my posts on purpose.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 30, 2017 10:49 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
ahippo wrote:If that's true, why wouldn't someone have come out by now to claim they were the one to block the kill, either as doctor or especially as roleblocker?
Because they can't be sure that they were the reason the NK failed.

Like I said, I'd personally be quick to claim. Maybe it's because I don't know what would work, but I still feel it'd be a strong choice.

Sabrar wrote:If my described scenario is correct, wouldn't that make moody automatically town and thereby 'letting him off the hook'?

It would, assuming it's correct. I have no reason to believe it's correct. It's just one possibility that I consider unlikely.

Sabrar wrote:I also appreciate if people spell my name correctly.

Sorry. No harm meant by it.

Sabrar wrote:So my understanding is that you find us scummy primarily because we both think that scum just wouldn't do what you did at the end of D1. Is this correct?

My assumption is that you're lying about thinking that what I did D1 is townie because it's so scummy. Everyone else seems to think what I did was scummy. When it turns up I'm not Black Ajah, you'll be able to point and say "I told you so."

Sabrar wrote:
ahippo wrote:Damn you, Sabrar, for making me rewrite my thoughts on you from that post you ninja'd me on.
What is this referring to? I see no reference to it in your analysis.

There's no reference to what I rewrote because I rewrote it before I posted. I thought you were surprised by Diemo's role PM originally, then rewrote my thoughts when you clarified so as not to contradict myself from earlier in the post when I said
I'll do my best not to jump to any conclusion that is contradicted by a later post from the player I'm quoting.


mpolo wrote:he gives a vibe of being certain about things that we can't as a group be certain of.

Please elaborate. I admit that I'm working off of assumptions, but who isn't? What do you think I'm certain of?

Gopher of Pern wrote:The primary reason you are leading the votals is not due to the day 1 post, but due to the utter lack of scum hunting and opinions about other players

That's definitely a part of it, but at this point I have more opinions on other players than matt96 does, so why me and not him?


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