Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D6)

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ahippo
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby ahippo » Mon Jan 23, 2017 8:49 pm UTC

bessie wrote:You mean to tell me that you spent the entire weekend reading old games instead of contributing to this one?

Yep.
bessie wrote:(Why did you leave out Dollhouse? D1 Town lynch, mafia win, you should read that one it is one of my favorite games.)

Just missed it. That puts the incorrect lynch, mafia win percentage at 33.3% of all mafia wins which is definitely significant, but not huge.

bessie wrote:Rereading your post and this stands out:
ahippo wrote: For the third question, I was thinking it might be reasonable for me to claim my Ajah,

ahippo wrote:Yellow Ajah. I've been playing healers for years.

So, did you just claim to be Yellow Ajah/doctor? Why?

I'm not Yellow Ajah nor doctor. That last question really was just for fun.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby kalira » Mon Jan 23, 2017 9:34 pm UTC

The paper suddenly burst into flame, and the votes were written out in fiery light to illuminate the air around the group. Another gust of wind flowed quickly past the cloaked figures, and the words in flame were extinguished. The Aes Sedai suddenly realized how dark it had become and decided to bring their gathering to a close for the night. The final votes did not lie. Diemo was the first threat they decided to expunge. They could only hope they were on the right track. Diemo was wrapped in flows of Air and taken out of the Library to where he would be dealt with. The Aes Sedai slowly made their way back to their quarters via back hallways and hidden passages so that none of their cohorts could determine their identity.

If Diemo was a part of the threat, they knew he would not be the only one, though, and it weighed on each of their minds. Tomorrow would be soon enough to begin the search again.


Votals:
Diemo (5) - JudeMorrigan, moody7277, matt96, Sabrar
bessie (3) - Gopher of Pern, SirGabriel, ahippo
ahippo (1) - Carlington

Not voting: mpolo, Diemo, dimochka, Bessie

Night has fallen.

If you have not done so already, send your night actions in as soon as possible. The Creator (and jimbobmacdoodle) waits for no one.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Jan 23, 2017 10:36 pm UTC

Thank you kalira for ending the day. A minor correction to the day-end votals:

Votals:
Diemo (5) - JudeMorrigan, moody7277, matt96(x2), Sabrar
bessie (3) - Gopher of Pern, SirGabriel, ahippo
ahippo (1) - Carlington

Night actions must be submitted by 7pm UTC tomorrow (24th January). You may change your action at any point up to then. I will then process them and post day start flavour shortly thereafter.

EDIT: Also, since it wasn't explicitly stated, Diemo has been lynched and is "dead".
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D1)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:25 pm UTC

Day 2 - A Quiet Night
Image

Leane entered the Amyrlin’s study shortly after daybreak to find Siuan already sat behind her desk, the striped stole of her office resting on her shoulders. The Amyrlin’s tiredness was plain to see on her ageless features.
“If I may be so bold, did you not sleep, Mother?” the Keeper asked.

“How could I,” came the reply. “With the events of yesterday, it was like trying to rest on an open deck in an ocean storm. My mind does not rest easy these days. What do you have for me this morning?”

“One of the Sisters from yesterday’s gathering has delivered her report. She was tasked with searching the quarters of our chief culprit. But I’m afraid it’s not good news. There was no evidence in her quarters of anything untoward. I’m afraid the majority in this case may have been wrong.”

“Fish guts,” exclaimed Siuan. “We are going to have to do better if we are to catch those traitors. Still, we cannot let her rejoin the gathering. Have her swear to silence and sent to a farm for safety. Then tell the others to meet at the end of the novice lunch break.”


Diemo was lynched. He was Gretna Vollit, Aes Sedai of the Brown Ajah, unaligned with any faction.

Role PM:
Spoiler:
You are Gretna Vollit, Aes Sedai of the Brown Ajah. You win when all threats to the stability of the White Tower have been eliminated and a strong leader is in place.

At the start of the game each player apart from you has been secretly and randomly assigned a letter. Each night you may target a player by sending a PM to the mod and co-mods. You will be informed of that player's letter. In addition you will be informed of the letters of anybody they targeted that night and the letters of anybody who targeted them (excluding you in both cases).

It is now Day 2. With 11 alive, it is 6 to hammer. Deadline is 7pm UTC, Monday 30th January.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:38 pm UTC

Does anyone object to having a mass claim of our colors? I have information that might be useful if everyone first claims their color.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:51 pm UTC

I've got nothing to report at the moment though I might be able to verify someone else's night-action if it becomes necessary.

Quick thoughts that plagued me during the night:
- mpolo not voting seemed very uncharacteristic of him so I checked his last 7 games (6 town, 1 scum going back to Smalltown) and he always had a vote down at the end of D1. Him saying that he doesn't have any opinions is unusual, re-reading his content (which I couldn't get to on Monday due to work) he never offered any reads, focusing only on flavor.

- I don't like dimochka's response to my question, in my experience townies usually can explain their thought-process and it's only scum who falls back to the "I don't know why I said that" defense (example).

- ahippo's 'analysis' is extremely suspicious, however I can't see why scum would post that when at the time bessie was comfortably leading the votals and there was no need to pile upon more. Especially saying that he doesn't believe bessie to be scum but still voting for her, it is so scummy that I'm willing to entertain the idea that he is just misguided.

I'm a bit wary about claiming colors as scum might have use of that information, like Padan Fain needed to find specific roles in WoT1.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:01 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:it is so scummy that I'm willing to entertain the idea that he is just misguided.

Heh. I'm touched.

It's unfortunate that we learned almost nothing from lynching Diemo. We already knew someone had that win condition, and I would consider that role pretty townie. The only thing that made him "unaligned" was that he didn't have a horse in the race on who's Amyrlin. His one post is pretty unremarkable. We did get off the hook for the NK (assuming there is one) which means some roleblocker probably got it right. There should be a fair amount of new information to work with, too. All in all, it's not so bad.

SirGabriel wrote:Does anyone object to having a mass claim of our colors? I have information that might be useful if everyone first claims their color.

This is pretty unexpected to me. Personally, I'm comfortable with claiming my Ajah, but I came to the conclusion that it probably wouldn't give us any useful information. Could you give us more of an idea why?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:07 pm UTC

ahippo wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:Does anyone object to having a mass claim of our colors? I have information that might be useful if everyone first claims their color.

This is pretty unexpected to me. Personally, I'm comfortable with claiming my Ajah, but I came to the conclusion that it probably wouldn't give us any useful information. Could you give us more of an idea why?

Not really, anything I say now would just tell scum what they would need to falseclaim later.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:31 pm UTC

Things from yesterday:

Sabrar, The fact bessie didn't mention a reason in her first response is why it was now post-hoc. I don't see how mine is post-hoc? I asked for a reason, and they became defensive about it.

matt, why didn't you claim you had a double vote? Did I miss it? And why didn't anyone else notice?

So, bessie seems to have a guardian angel. While their posting did improve a lot near the end of the day, I am still suspicious of them, even more so that they got saved. Makes me think a lot less of Jude, as they started the alternate bandwagon on an easy target, for what I deem to be a spurious reason. Mentioning that red ajah's could be mafia? The red's were working sorta with the blacks, weren't they? (At least being manipulated by them) It was a red who deposed the Amurlyn. Matt is another one I'm keeping an eye on, for being third to the bandwagon, and having a double vote, without expressly saying it.

ahippo, that is a lot of busy work for very little gain. You can't use stats on a game like this to provide any meaningful information. Sample size is too small, each game is different, with different roles and different players. You cannot get anything statistically significant from that analysis (although it would have been fun to do!) That, plus a lack of analysis on anything that's happened, makes me think a lot less of you as well.

SirGabriel, I will claim if I need to.

Matt, why the vote on diemo? You didn't give a reason why.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby JudeMorrigan » Wed Jan 25, 2017 1:05 am UTC

Well, shit.

So far as it goes, it wasn't *just* his mentioning the possibility of the red ajah being mafia. It was that he had multiple things trying to direct our attention to the reds, including his "Definitely from like book 9 or so" spoiler which was just flat out wrong. The fact that he'd say something that was demonstrably untrue was what put me over the edge. In retrospect, he must have simply been confused and misremembering things. But, having concluded that bessie was likely town, it was either him or ahippo. And I still think that my conclusion about ahippo's being red but not black was a reasonable one. Of course, that was before he made his post about spending the weekend tallying up old games. I'm kind of facepalming over that. It doesn't even read jester-ish to me. I'm sorely tempted to go ahead and put the vote on him that I clearly should have yesterday.

I have no particular objection to a mass-ajah claim.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby bessie » Wed Jan 25, 2017 4:03 am UTC

I have nothing to share from last night.

I'm not claiming my color without a good reason.

I'm super busy right now as I wasn't expecting to be alive today. I'll try to get back to this tonight.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:51 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:ahippo, that is a lot of busy work for very little gain. You can't use stats on a game like this to provide any meaningful information. Sample size is too small, each game is different, with different roles and different players. You cannot get anything statistically significant from that analysis

Well, I don't think it's completely useless. For one thing my statistics (except for the fact that I missed Dollhouse, which I'm willing to own up to), are mathematically correct. Small sample size can absolutely be used as an argument against them, but it's undeniable that of four out of the six scum wins on this page started with scum lynches. From my time reading, I generally found that when an active townie with strong opinions was lynched, there was a lot to go off of for future days. They frequently led to town wins. In our own situation, given the lack of a night kill, I'm pretty happy with the way things turned out. We didn't learn much, yeah, but we lost basically nothing, and I'm sure as more people chime in they'll have learned a lot from the night.

The biggest thing I learned from my reading was that you're all actually pretty good at this. I may as well be a walking Dunning Kruger experiment. I got lucky my first game, thought I was smart and good at this, then carried that arrogance with me for the next few games. From then on I tended to assume people pointing out my inexperience were attacking my intelligence on a personal level and got defensive. Statistical analysis was the only thing I could think of to do that would be relevant and I pointed it at the thing that confused me the most (D1 lynches). My primary conclusion was that the more town knew D2, the more likely it was that they would win. I realize I didn't say it nearly that succinctly, or even say that specifically. But if I had no reason to trust my own instincts, the only thing I could trust was numbers. And I certainly didn't have time to look at every game in xkcdMafia history.

Gopher of Pern wrote:although it would have been fun to do!

It was! It was the first time in the game I felt I had anything of value to add. That flew back in my face really hard, but I was having fun at the time. I'd like to go and find more statistics, look at more games, find more correlations, but it seems like that's not a very popular idea.

As for today, I'm hoping we'll get some information from players who haven't chimed in yet. At this point I'm willing to claim a negative. I'm not Red Ajah. Like I said before, I'm not Yellow either. Neither of those prove much of anything IMO, but I've been accused of being Red. IIRC there were some Reds who wanted Siuan as Amyrlin and some Blues who didn't. I don't think Ajah color has much to do with alignment.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby mpolo » Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:49 am UTC

I don't think Ajah color has much to do with alignment.


It might be indicative of faction for the "non-evil" factions. It will certainly not help finding Darkfriends.

I received an anonymous note last night that the Black Ajah is using Myrddralls, who can Turn us without our consent. If this is indeed the case, the lack of deaths last night is somewhat disturbing.

It is seldom that I don't Vote on D1, but in my defense, my Internet has been so spotty that is was near miraculous to get in the posts I did get in. (Crosses fingers) Yesterday it was considerably better, though, and I am working on a long-term solution.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:47 am UTC

Gopher of Pern wrote:Sabrar, The fact bessie didn't mention a reason in her first response is why it was now post-hoc. I don't see how mine is post-hoc? I asked for a reason, and they became defensive about it.
It's because you keep trying to find new faults in her response even after she explained them, or trying to point to things that don't need an explanation in my opinion.

Gopher of Pern wrote:matt, why didn't you claim you had a double vote? Did I miss it? And why didn't anyone else notice?
Upon re-read he did claim it (though subtly). Without double-vote the votals would have stood bessie: 4, Diemo: 3, which would make his "Which ties the votals" a lie or a mistake. I assume he knew that his double-vote would be revealed in the official votals, therefore he didn't feel the need to say it explicitly.

ahippo wrote:I'd like to go and find more statistics, look at more games, find more correlations, but it seems like that's not a very popular idea.
If you do it in your free time it's absolutely a fun project and we can discuss the results at length. However when you're in the middle of a game then your time is probably better spent by analyzing the relevant content.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 25, 2017 4:14 pm UTC

Puppies.

I looked for ahippo's previous games to see if he had similar ideas in the past. Unfortunately I only found one that was useful: In the first Smalltown game he almost got lynched because he proposed NL on D1, he later got Vig-ed. He was Town.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:10 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:I received an anonymous note last night that the Black Ajah is using Myrddralls, who can Turn us without our consent. If this is indeed the case, the lack of deaths last night is somewhat disturbing.

Anonymous notes don't necessarily mean much. Do you have any evidence that the note is telling the truth?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:28 pm UTC

SirGabriel wrote:Do you have any evidence that the note is telling the truth?
That is such a strange question. How could mpolo have evidence of that, unless he is Black Ajah or was recruited by them, in which case he obviously won't admit it.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby moody7277 » Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:49 pm UTC

Okay, so the Brown Ajah flip with unaligned with any faction, is that supposed to map onto independent with no anti-town tendencies, or are we migrating to a several faction with a mutual antagonist model?

Saw myself the sotto voce double vote claim that matt made as described by Sabrar. Sabrar's also doing a lot of meta-mining, which to the best of my recollection is new for him. Might just be something he's trying out, but him being the deciding vote against Diemo on a day that was 98% going against bessie before my vote apparently crystallised a super-concentrated solution is a definite oddity.

Third, I would be okay declaring colors. I find it interesting that the person most fervently against it is bessie. Sabrar at least has a game mechanic concern about it.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:25 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:Sabrar's also doing a lot of meta-mining, which to the best of my recollection is new for him.
I'm quite sure that I did it before, though maybe not to such an extent. If you really want I can look for specific examples when I have some free time.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:56 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:Do you have any evidence that the note is telling the truth?
That is such a strange question. How could mpolo have evidence of that, unless he is Black Ajah or was recruited by them, in which case he obviously won't admit it.

It's possible that mpolo received more relevant information that he has chosen not to share yet, so I just wanted to double check.
What are the chances that a town-aligned player could know the information contained in the note and anonymously tell someone about it this early in the game? I think it's more likely that the note is a hoax send by either the mafia or an independent.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:09 pm UTC

Diemo's role was so unusual (at least for me) that I wouldn't rule out the possibility just yet.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Gopher of Pern » Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:10 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Gopher of Pern wrote:Sabrar, The fact bessie didn't mention a reason in her first response is why it was now post-hoc. I don't see how mine is post-hoc? I asked for a reason, and they became defensive about it.
It's because you keep trying to find new faults in her response even after she explained them, or trying to point to things that don't need an explanation in my opinion.

Gopher of Pern wrote:matt, why didn't you claim you had a double vote? Did I miss it? And why didn't anyone else notice?
Upon re-read he did claim it (though subtly). Without double-vote the votals would have stood bessie: 4, Diemo: 3, which would make his "Which ties the votals" a lie or a mistake. I assume he knew that his double-vote would be revealed in the official votals, therefore he didn't feel the need to say it explicitly.


I don't believe she explained them, as she dodged my question, then got ultra defensive.

Yes, it was a subtle claim, but why not do it outright? It's not as if we wouldn't notice. (I was considering asking the mods if the votals were correct the first time, with 5 votes by 4 people, until it was clarified.) Town generally wins when they have more information, so withholding that is a black mark.

mpolo, you say that your internet was spotty, yet you did manage a few posts, most of which say "I know nothing." You could have provided some opinions on what was going on. Why not?
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby bessie » Thu Jan 26, 2017 5:22 am UTC

When I made my final post D1 I was on my way out the door (in real life and in the game), so I’ll finish those up first.

ahippo, I think that your analysis is quite interesting, and I think that’s great that you’re trying to compile those statistics. The reason I was so um, astonished when I saw it was that you spent all weekend analyzing old games instead of posting in the current one, while I was sitting at my computer prodding lurkers.
ahippo wrote:Well, I don't think it's completely useless.
I don’t either. I wouldn’t mind discussing your analysis more, but I don’t want to do so at the expense of this game. If you want continue crunching numbers, fine, as long as I see some game content. If you want to take this up in the Gojoe thread after the game is over, I’ll be around.

I see mpolo managed to make two more posts on D1 without contributing any more reads. Final D1 tally on number of player mentions by name in his posts: bessie (3), dimochka (1), ahippo (1). Even Carlington managed to contribute more player analysis than mpolo.

I never did get a reply from SirGabriel on my read here. SirGabriel, I said I was suspicious of you and I gave reasons. I accused you of not presenting a valid case for your vote on me. I voted for you. And nothing? Guess you thought you wouldn’t need to reply because I would be gone. Sorry if my non-lynch is inconvenient for you.

OK, on to D2.

ahippo wrote:The only thing that made him "unaligned" was that he didn't have a horse in the race on who's Amyrlin.
This is an interesting comment. I need to think about why this pings me.

ahippo wrote:Personally, I'm comfortable with claiming my Ajah, but I came to the conclusion that it probably wouldn't give us any useful information.
Really? I have exactly the opposite opinion.

Gopher of Pern wrote:matt, why didn't you claim you had a double vote? Did I miss it? And why didn't anyone else notice?
When was there even time to notice? Deadline passed, many of us probably already checked out. I know I did.

Gopher of Pern wrote:So, bessie seems to have a guardian angel.
Surprised the hell out of me too.

ahippo wrote: IIRC there were some Reds who wanted Siuan as Amyrlin and some Blues who didn't. I don't think Ajah color has much to do with alignment.
Can the fact checkers chime in? This was not my understanding, but I’m flavor blind so could be wrong. I would like to know this, because I'm still trying to work out the importance of the colors.

mpolo wrote:I received an anonymous note last night that the Black Ajah is using Myrddralls, who can Turn us without our consent. If this is indeed the case, the lack of deaths last night is somewhat disturbing.
This could indicate either a recruiting mafia or an anti-town recruiting third party. Could be a false note. Or could be scum!mpolo trying to stir up trouble. I’m going to take this claim seriously, but cautiously.

SirGabriel wrote:Anonymous notes don't necessarily mean much. Do you have any evidence that the note is telling the truth?
I find it interesting SirGabriel did not question the existence of the note, just the truthfulness of the content. And he doubles down here:
SirGabriel wrote: It's possible that mpolo received more relevant information that he has chosen not to share yet, so I just wanted to double check.
What are the chances that a town-aligned player could know the information contained in the note and anonymously tell someone about it this early in the game? I think it's more likely that the note is a hoax send by either the mafia or an independent.


moody7277 wrote:Okay, so the Brown Ajah flip with unaligned with any faction, is that supposed to map onto independent with no anti-town tendencies, or are we migrating to a several faction with a mutual antagonist model?
That’s what we’re trying to figure out. ahippo, what’s your opinion on this?

moody7277 wrote:Third, I would be okay declaring colors. I find it interesting that the person most fervently against it is bessie. Sabrar at least has a game mechanic concern about it.
Hmm, that is interesting, isn’t it? I wonder if she has a reason she doesn’t want to claim her color yet.

Carlington, dimochka, matt96, hi! Anything you want to share?

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby ahippo » Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:55 am UTC

bessie wrote:
moody7277 wrote:Okay, so the Brown Ajah flip with unaligned with any faction, is that supposed to map onto independent with no anti-town tendencies, or are we migrating to a several faction with a mutual antagonist model?

That’s what we’re trying to figure out. ahippo, what’s your opinion on this?

Non-game content:
Spoiler:
I consider it correct to not capitalize the 'a' in ahippo even at the beginning of a sentence, so thanks for that.

If we take mpolo's statement as true, I think we could be facing a Black Ajah that has a recruitment instead of a night kill. Flavor-wise it's more appropriate as it was used far more than assassination in the series. If so, there are at least two, if not three Blacks right now. Regardless, that doesn't explain the PM we got from the mods/role PM for Diemo. It stated "You win when all threats to the stability of the White Tower have been eliminated and a strong leader is in place." The Black Ajah are absolutely a threat to the stability of the White Tower. Even so, that win condition implies that the leader (Amyrlin) can change. Now, whether or not some random Green raised to Amyrlin after defeating the Black Ajah counts as "strong" I couldn't tell you for certain. I would guess, probably, yes. That win condition would be satisfied, as I see it.

So one problem I have is this: Assuming there is a recruiter faction and no NK, isn't it pretty much inevitable that they win? Let's imagine we were set up as one recruiter and eleven townies. If we didn't get the recruiter N1 (which we didn't), even if we knew who the original recruiter was, there would always be one more than we could lynch for a day. As far as I see it, there are three possibilities:

1. Black Ajah can't recruit and they just got blocked on their night kill.
2. There is some vigilante kill that can even the odds against the recruiter.
3. Killing the original recruiter kills all recruitment. (Flavor tells me Myrddraal aren't players and aren't picky for new recruits, so I rather doubt this one.)

If you can think of another, I'm open to the idea. I'll be spending the next twenty-four hours looking at individuals and trying to come up with opinions on them. I can't guarantee a post within that timeframe, but I'll be online. I'm hoping for the rest to join in (especially matt69 because of double voting power). I'm interested to hear what they have to say.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:54 am UTC

ahippo wrote:If you can think of another, I'm open to the idea.
I think there are a number of ways (with similar results) to limit the recruitment, for example:
1. Recruitment is X-shot, meaning the size of Black Ajah can't grow past a preset limit
2. Recruitment can only happen on odd (or even) nights.
3. Combination of multiple ideas, e.g. there is a core (or original) Black Ajah, if all of them are killed then no more recruitment can be made, and the non-core (or recruited) part is limited to a certain number of members (once the limit is reached they can only recruit if a previous recruit died).

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:24 pm UTC

bessie wrote:I never did get a reply from SirGabriel on my read here. SirGabriel, I said I was suspicious of you and I gave reasons. I accused you of not presenting a valid case for your vote on me. I voted for you. And nothing? Guess you thought you wouldn’t need to reply because I would be gone. Sorry if my non-lynch is inconvenient for you.

I thought the reasoning behind my actions was clear, but apparently you disagree. I interpreted ahippo's question as something he asked out of curiosity which had no bearing on the game, and since I didn't have the flavor knowledge to give a serious answer (unless my answer was to say that I couldn't give a serious answer), I answered with a joke. As to your comment on colours being important, of course they are. Black is bad, red and blue also seem to be important. But what's the difference between brown and gray? I have no idea, and I have no evidence that it matters. If I recall correctly, there's only been one post so far that suggested that there might be a particular importance to each individual color such that remembering every single color on the list would matter.
And regarding my vote, you were being very defensive. The thing that pinged me the most was your FoS on me for seemingly no reason except that you thought it didn't matter whether dimochka's vote was serious. Then I pointed out that you were the one who first suggested that it mattered whether dimochka's vote was serious, and I voted for you, and you turned your FoS into a vote without replying to that argument, giving me even more reason to keep my vote on you.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Carlington » Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:14 pm UTC

Okay. Life in general has calmed down a lot, and today was a public holiday which gave me a minute to rally and get on top of things. I'm trying not to let this become a habit, posting analysis starting D2, but here I go:

spoil'd for wall'o'text, note-taking D1:
Spoiler:
Sabrar - flavourblind. asks whether ahippo and JudeMorrigan are experience players, any preferences regarding game style. RV dimochka for atheist claim. Has theories about bessie's accusation. Analysis of bessie, thinks she's likely scum. Votes accordingly. Asks what mpolo would rather discuss statt bessie-dimocka. Scumhunts by vote analysis. Votes impatiently. Unwilling to set rules for claiming other than it should help town more than scum. Asks more decent questions. Sketch on dimochka's thoughts around Jude's list - thinks Jude and moody have similar lists, but dimochka only called out one of them. More analysis, puts me towny, diemo scummy, matt scum/indie. D2 a few quick thoughts regarding mpolo, dimochka, ahippo. Sabrar isn't super keen on GoP's bessie focus.

JudeMorrigan - RV dimochka for atheist claim, unvote because Sabrar already did. Answers Sabrar: considers self fairly newbie-ish. No preferences re: game style. Confused by bessie's setup spec. Notices difference in rules between WoT 1-2. Pulls ahippo on "six out of seven ajahs". Defends bessie, as she could be town trying to get a reaction. Setup spec would jave been "something like 7-3-1-1 w/SK+Surv" based on past experience here, now the possibility of recruiter cannot be ignored. Town-scum list which seems to have at least a little thought put into it. Defends town-scum list and setup spec. Reasonably full analysis of a few players, votes Diemo. D2 first post providing reasoning for diemo vote after the fact. fine with ajah claim.

ahippo - Extensive answer to Sabrar, has played a few games, considers self not very good. Has played some ONUW outside fora. Should be active, claims solid flavour knowledge. Setup spec: more than one non-town faction. Probably a mechanic for replacing the Amyrlin. Expecting power-heavy setup. Explains this Amyrlin spec as combo of PM and flavour knowledge. Expects Black Ajah main antag. Could be many factions, based on flavour. Thinks PM faction likely pro-town. Not sure if Eliada constitutes a strong leader. "six out of seven Ajahs", explained as genuine mistake. ahippo asks questions to get a feel for players. Did a huge meta-analysis of every game since he left. Came back with a bunch of stats that lead to the conclusion that he should lynch a town read D1 (?!?) D2 fine with ajah claim. Defends stat. analysis of other games. Suspects a recruiting mafia instead of killing.

SirG - RV Sabrar. Claims receiving PM regarding a certain faction. Guesses this is a third faction, who is either pro- or anti-town, not true neutral. Doesn't seem to like bessie's case on dimochka, thinks the MA claim was a joke but is willing to entertain based on prior experience of nailing scum from single jokes. Growing suspicion on bessie. Agrees with moody's conclusions, thinks scum!bessie most likely. Claims not to have a good scumhunting strategy. Never fully confident in a vote. Unwilling to pin down a hard rule about claiming. Very quick T-S list, based on re-read, no analysis given. Votes bessie on this basis. D2 asks for a mass claim of ajahs - has information that might be useful. (I feel like I can guess this). SirG cautious about mpolo's note's veracity. Provides a little more reasoning surrounding his actions re:bessie.

GoP - Flavourblind. RV mpolo. Agrees that mafia = Black Ajah. Doubts cult. Asks bessie about cult, thinks she dodges answering. Votes bessie for being too defensive. Scumhunts with pressuring and vote analysis. Claims whenever it'll help his team win, but is wary. Town-scum list relying heavily on meta for some players, not heavy on explanation. D2 first post is pretty good, for a quick round-up. Will claim ajah if necessary. Still pushing the same bessie points, as well as matt's softclaim and mpolo's lack of vote.

bessie - Suprised she can post on the first page. Setup spec - 2 power mafia, 1 indie, 1 pro-faction indie, 1 recruiter, 1 power town (1-2 recruitable). FoS dimochka for claiming MA during conf. phase, and because she'd rather be rid of an MA if such exists. Prods SirG for content. Doubles down on FoS dimochka. votes dimochka, unwilling to ignore anything in case it's relevant, despite differences in what's seen as relevant between players. Feels flavour discussion is more normal due to intensity of flavour. Responds to many players, prods many others for content. Continues pushing on "when is it okay to ignore content?". Posts again responding to conversation about dimochka. Faction thoughts - Suian Sanche faction probably town. Elaida faction probably not mafia, possibly indies leaning town or scum, or even true indies. Black Ajah definitely mafia. Claims to be a poor scumhunter. Looks instead for technical things. Used to wait, is getting more impatient. Thinks town tends to overclaim. Claim only when it helps town more than scum. Thinks she's the only one focussed on dimochka. Thinks some understand her position better than they admit. Calls Jude's setup spec safe but meaningless. Good analysis post ending with a vote on SirG. Posts defending herself from the lynch. Nothing to claim, anti-ajah claim. Picks up a lot of little things here and there.

mpolo - thinks bessie's FoS was a joke. From flavour, we are running parallel to the books. Thinks it's important to town that a strong leader be on the Amyrlin seat. Suspects Siuan Sanche and Eliada to be possiblities for strong leaders. Wants to read bessie-dimochka as town-town. Scumhunts by post analysis, occasionally flavour arguments. Prefers to vote later when he's more sure. Claiming should be if it will save a good role, or benefit town strongly. provides four examples of names characters he expects to see. Received note N1 that Black Ajah are using Myrddralls, who can turn players.

dimochka - claimed MA in confirmation, claims it was a joke because game content is never posted in confirmation phase. Looking at people's reactions to joke. Votes bessie, thinks she's scum nitpicking to build a case out of air. Wants to drop the MA thread. Didn't consider meta vs. bessie. Still doesn't like bessie's reaction to his joke. Find's Jude's list unhelpful. Reads on moody and SirG, both townish.

moody - agrees re: Black Ajah. Also thinks there may be secondary wincons based on Ajah, or there may not even be a cohesive town faction. setup spec: 2 black ajah, green, blue, red ajah, non-ajah characters poss. Poss. SK. Compiles MA reactions, draws three conclusions. Agrees that anything in thread is open slather, but thinks consideration ought be given to what's obvious fluff. Curious as to why bessie waited for dimochka to vote her before voting him. Rough town-scum list with summary of posts but not opinions on the elements that build the read on each player. points out oddity of matt's doublevote being used to flip the vote late in the day. okay with ajah-claim

matt96 - Agrees re black ajah. Thinks Red Ajah may also be a threat. Sets up a hierarchy of strong amyrlin candidate ajahs. Only good scumhunting method is process of elimination. Holds out for confirmation or necessity. Thinks claiming is inevitable, some day will be the last day and then it's better to air all the info. Toys with mass Ajah claim. Thinks the mystery third faction is town with secondary wincon. Thinks bessie's rolespec is intentionally provocative. Still doesn't find it scummy, despite not liking it.

Diemo - RL occupied. Doesn't like the focus on dimochka(?). A little bit of spec. re: black vs. red ajah as scum, thinks black more likely. Flipped Brown Ajah "unaligned with any faction"


now, one point of order:
moody7277 wrote:
...
Carlington-...anti-cult attitude...
...
No, I actually kinda enjoy cult/recruiting role games, as long as it's not ridiculous. I find a certain sort of fun in having to work with a shifting wincon and a shifting view of the game.

I don't want to claim anything just now, but that might change by the end of today. I have no issue claiming my colour, and I have ideas about how it might prove useful.

Some analysis, forged from the lengthy notes above and tempered with a weave of Air and Spirit:

Sabrar - Good analysis on most of the players, and quite active, as is typical. Early on seemed rather negative on bessie, but that was tempered with time. His current focus would appear to be GoP, and in particular GoP's focus on bessie. He doesn't seem to be making much of SirGabriel's focus on her, though. Still, on balance, seems towny, if a bit less so than I normally read him.

JudeMorrigan - Picks up on a possible flavour-based slip from ahippo. Defended bessie early on, and gave a reasonable looking setup spec, although failed to take recruiting powers into account. His T-S list seemed to have at least a little thought behind it, although he did focus a lot on re-explaining his vote after Diemo flipped town - pre-emptive self-defense? Not enough evidence either side to swing it.

ahippo - Most of his early content was largely flavour based. Admitted to difficulty reading players, and spent an (imo) inordinate amount of time on some statistical analysis that was interesting but ultimately fruitless. Seems to suspect a recruiting mafia instead of a killing one (possible gambit, withholding kill N1 to draw suspicion away from a kill towards a recruit...unlikely, but possible). I still don't at all like his voting for a town read ploy. At this juncture, my most likely vote candidate.

SirGabriel - Some good content, although it's often quality at the expense of quantity. Has soft-claimed some kind of N1 result, but not giving more info about it. All in all, I think he's soft town.

GoP - Has been quite singular in his focus on bessie, in my opinion. I felt as though his T-S list leant heavily on meta for some players instead of analysis. I'd like to see more analysis of other players, I think he's tunneling on bessie. Whether that's malicious or innocent, I'm not so sure. Neutral/soft scum

bessie - A lot of content, and a large focus of D1. The vote flip away from her was remarkable. She was quite heavily focused on dimochka's joke on D1, which I feel was tunneling. Still, provided good analysis on other players too, and has made a lot of good spots through the game. As an aside, I think I like the less patient and more assertive playstyle she's adopted of late. Town.

mpolo - Seems to have a lot of ideas, based possibly in flavour. Not heavy on analysis, leaning more towards spec and flavour analysis. I don't think he's scum, but he might be some sort of indie. His claimed note is interesting, too. Indie.

dimochka - Very thin on content, hard to get a read. I believe him about the MA claim being a joke, otherwise he wouldn't have been willing to drop it. I do see bessie's point that it's odd to do something like that and immediately claim it was meaningless. Neutral/scum.

moody - Some interesting ideas around setup and the town faction. Asked a couple of astute questions around the bessie-dimochka tete-a-tete. T-S list seemed a little hasty, and I'd like if he expounded on his reasoning a bit. He, like, me, picked up on matt's doublevote and the wagon switch late D1.

matt - Lacking in analysis of other players, and has some interesting ideas about what consitutes a strong leader on the Amyrlin seat. Happy to answer questions, less so to generate his own content. Leaning scummy/active-lurky

Town-scum list at this point:
Town
bessie
Sabrar
SirGabriel
moody
JudeMorrigan
dimochka
GoP
matt96
ahippo

Special indie mention: mpolo
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby JudeMorrigan » Thu Jan 26, 2017 1:17 pm UTC

Hey, all. Just wanted to let you know that I'm still around. Work's been a bit of a bear this week, but I'm going to try really hard to make a substantive post this evening.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:14 pm UTC

Just as a quick note: FoS on anyone who doesn't understand why revealing Ajah colors might be detrimental.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby dimochka » Thu Jan 26, 2017 5:10 pm UTC

didn't realize we are back. catching up now.
If you're curious about the origin of my avatar, google "Cheburashka".

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby mpolo » Thu Jan 26, 2017 8:14 pm UTC

I was a bit lazy on D1. I was seeing mostly an interaction that I was reading as town on town, so didn't have much else to go on.

The anonymous note was completely anonymous. Flavorwise, I found a note slipped under my door.

With the complication implied by the Brown power that we saw (which seems to be weak in the early game, but potentially much stronger in late game), I could imagine a power that targets somebody to receive more information about the setup, but I have no way of knowing that, and indeed no way of knowing whether to trust that information.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:42 pm UTC

Analysis post:

ahippo - A lot of setup speculation based on flavor, some analysis of other games, vote on bessie because her flip would be helpful even though he doesn't think she's scum. Unless I missed something, absolutely no reads on anyone other than bessie. I don't think this is how a townie would play, but I also don't think it's how scum!ahippo would play, since it's generally to scum's advantage to make at least some effort to appear townie (or, should that prove too difficult, to lurk). So at the moment I'm inclined to think he's third party.

bessie - I'll admit that she has some decent content now, but that doesn't make up for everything that pinged me about her before. I have nothing else to say that I haven't said before. Scummy.

Carlington - Not much content D1. Good analysis post D2. Slightly townie.

dimochka - Suspicious of bessie and ahippo, voted bessie but unvoted before day end. No content yet D2. Neutral.

Gopher of Pern - Voted bessie for being overly defensive. Not much D1 content other than a not-very-detailed analysis post. On D2, still suspicious of bessie, and also of Jude and matt for saving bessie. Townie.

JudeMorrigan - Some setup speculation based on flavor. Not-very-useful town-to-scum list. Finds bessie townie and ahippo scummy (or at least likely non-town). Then votes Diemo, not for lurking but for one comment about it being possible that someone other than Black is the mafia (which is not an unreasonable comment for a flavor-knowledgeable townie to make, especially if he missed the one mention of the Black Ajah in the opening flavor). Slightly scummy.

matt96 - Very little content. Soft-claims double vote, which he uses to try to save bessie/lynch Diemo. I would call him slightly scummy if it weren't for the fact that mafia with a double vote is overpowered.

moody7277 - Initially thinks bessie is likely town, later gets more suspicious of her, but ultimately votes Diemo for lurking. Puts ahippo at top of town-to-scum list for no apparent reason. Expresses surprise at Diemo's "unaligned with any faction" flip - probably means moody is part of a non-town faction. Slightly scummy.

mpolo - Not convinced by case against bessie, responds to ahippo's questions, claims to have received an anonymous note. Everything else he says concerns flavor. Never voted. Likely non-town, possibly scum.

Sabrar - Lots of short posts, lots of questions for other players - consistent with his playstyle as either scum or town. Voted bessie, then switched to Diemo because bessie's content improved. Neutral.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:54 pm UTC

There are a couple of points that I don't like about SirGabriel's read list, in order of appearance:

- unwilling to reconsider his stance regarding bessie, although he admits that her content is decent now;
- I think he misrepresents moody's question about factions when he calls it 'surprise' and jumps straight to a conclusion;
- no real explanation for most of his reads, just a quick summary of people's content. This is a pet peeve of mine, the problem here is that we can't really tell what you base your opinions on so can't judge whether they are justified;
- having very few townie-reads, as mentioned before this is more indicative of scum who needs a reason to jump unto any wagon they want.

There are also a few other reads where I disagree with him, will try to get them up tomorrow.

Request mod-prod on matt96

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby SirGabriel » Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:32 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:- unwilling to reconsider his stance regarding bessie, although he admits that her content is decent now;

False. I am willing to reconsider it, but she has yet to provide any justification for the things I found scummy. Scum can, and often do, produce good content, so we can't just ignore scummy actions because of good content.
Sabrar wrote:- I think he misrepresents moody's question about factions when he calls it 'surprise' and jumps straight to a conclusion;

Unless I am mistaken, "unaligned" is this game's equivalent of "town." moody's question suggests that he had not already come to this conclusion. So either this game is way too complicated for the number of players, or moody is unaligned/town but for some reason hasn't realized the two are essentially synonymous in this game, or moody didn't realize unaligned=town because he is in some other faction and thus only knew of one unaligned player (Diemo) instead of the two (Diemo and himself) he would have known of if he were unaligned. I think the last option is the most likely.
Sabrar wrote:- no real explanation for most of his reads, just a quick summary of people's content. This is a pet peeve of mine, the problem here is that we can't really tell what you base your opinions on so can't judge whether they are justified

My reads are generally connected to my content summary. If I have a clear enough read to explain in detail why I'm placing them where I am, I will.
Sabrar wrote:- having very few townie-reads, as mentioned before this is more indicative of scum who needs a reason to jump unto any wagon they want.

I had 20% of the living players (excluding myself) as either townie or slightly townie. If you look at my analysis posts for the last few games in which I was town, you'll get similar percentages (23%, 25%, and 10%). I'm not a great scum hunter, which means I'm also not great at getting accurate town reads.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby mpolo » Fri Jan 27, 2017 7:38 am UTC

A kind of meta-flavor thing that occured to me:

The "message to all" said that there was a faction with the same win condition as this sister aligned with no faction that just died. Do we think that there is a "faction" that is somehow aligned with the unaligned, or is this a modly misspeaking?

@Mod: It's probably a stupid question to begin with, but it is distracting me. Would the existence of persons "unaligned with any faction" with the correct win condition satisfy the proviso in your message to us that there is a "faction" with that win condition?
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 27, 2017 7:58 am UTC

SirGabriel wrote:False. I am willing to reconsider it, but she has yet to provide any justification for the things I found scummy. Scum can, and often do, produce good content, so we can't just ignore scummy actions because of good content.
Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks to me like you are saying that you will find her scummy no matter what she does until that point is explained. So you are basing your whole case against her on one specific thing while ignoring everything else.

SirGabriel wrote:So either this game is way too complicated for the number of players, or moody is unaligned/town but for some reason hasn't realized the two are essentially synonymous in this game, or moody didn't realize unaligned=town because he is in some other faction and thus only knew of one unaligned player (Diemo) instead of the two (Diemo and himself) he would have known of if he were unaligned.
Didn't it occur to you that moody just wanted to see what information others might have about the setup, without revealing anything about himself? If he has the same 'unaligned' alignment and win-con as Diemo did then he would have no info about the rest of the factions.

SirGabriel wrote:If you look at my analysis posts for the last few games in which I was town, you'll get similar percentages (23%, 25%, and 10%). I'm not a great scum hunter, which means I'm also not great at getting accurate town reads.
You missed Shakespeare (29%) but I see your point.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jan 27, 2017 8:45 am UTC

matt96 has been mod-prodded.
mpolo wrote:@Mod: It's probably a stupid question to begin with, but it is distracting me. Would the existence of persons "unaligned with any faction" with the correct win condition satisfy the proviso in your message to us that there is a "faction" with that win condition?
Sorry, yes this was a small mistake on my part. The win condition in the additional PM is for unaligned Aes Sedai. Unless otherwise stated, a player is considered unaligned and not a member of a particular faction.

After what had happened the day before, nobody was quite ready to commit to anything yet, although nearly everybody seemed to have something to say.

Votals: None

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby JudeMorrigan » Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:35 am UTC

The board wouldn't let me connect to it last night, so here are my morning thoughts:

- mpolo's note is interesting. SirGabriel's point about the chances of it being FUD are well taken, but it seems plausbile enough from a lore standpoint that I'm considering worth keeping it in the back of my mind. Regardless of its truth though, I think the "migrating to multiple factions" hypothesis is also plausible (I agree with bessie that ahippo's comment was interesting), and I'm a bit less comfortable with the idea of sharing my ajah as a result. That's not a "I'm definitely not ok with it", just that I can think of potential hazards to it.

- But speaking of mpolo, I'd really like to see more analysis from him.

- I'm still reading bessie as town, I'm still not inclined to cast stones at people who are suspicious of her.

- I appreciate carlington's list. The analysis looks reasonable, but I'm not sure I have much else to say about it.

- Oddly enough, I'm feeling slightly better about ahippo. I think it's just a tonal thing, but while he's still definitely on my "lynch candidate" list - he seems to be at least trying to be a bit more helpful.

- I'm really torn on moody and sabrar. In general, I've liked their content. But I'm still pretty danged confused by how my my one vote on Diemo turned into the swing that it did. Maybe it's hypocritical of me, but I have to wonder about the bandwagoners.

- My general impression is that double voting is usually a townie power, otherwise I'd be giving matt some pretty serious side-eye right now.

SirGabriel wrote:JudeMorrigan - Some setup speculation based on flavor. Not-very-useful town-to-scum list. Finds bessie townie and ahippo scummy (or at least likely non-town). Then votes Diemo, not for lurking but for one comment about it being possible that someone other than Black is the mafia (which is not an unreasonable comment for a flavor-knowledgeable townie to make, especially if he missed the one mention of the Black Ajah in the opening flavor). Slightly scummy.

Ok, I've got to ask - what the hell? I've explained my logic behind my vote for Diemo twice now, and that is *not* an accurate description of it. His suggesting that the reds might be the mafia was only part of it - the *lesser* part. It was his flat out wrong statement about the leadership of the reds and the blacks that put me over the edge. And if he'd missed the reference to the black ajah in the flavor, it's not as if there hadn't been plenty of very open talk of it in the thread.

Now, don't get me wrong. If people still consider my reasons inadequate - I get that. As one might infer from the post where I placed my vote, I myself was very much considering my vote a matter of "I feel like this is the best lead I have on a day that's been dominated by what I'm reading as a town-town scuffle" and not "I have a smoking gun on this player". But be that as it may - if you're going to criticize me over my vote, I'd appreciate it if you would criticize my *actual*, explicitly stated reasons for placing the vote. Because right now I'm starting to wonder if you and GoP are trying to manufacture a case on me with your mischaracterizations.

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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Carlington » Fri Jan 27, 2017 12:27 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:Just as a quick note: FoS on anyone who doesn't understand why revealing Ajah colors might be detrimental.

It occurs to me that I'm probably in this number from your POV. I want to clarify - I'm pretty sure I understand your reasoning here, but I don't think it should be taken for granted that that reasoning holds up.
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Re: Wheel of Time 2 - The White Tower (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Fri Jan 27, 2017 1:23 pm UTC

Carlington wrote:I want to clarify - I'm pretty sure I understand your reasoning here, but I don't think it should be taken for granted that that reasoning holds up.
Fmpov the reasoning is on the point, ymmv.

@mpolo: when can we expect actual reads from you instead of just meta/flavor speculation?

Some of JudeMorrigan's comments seem wishy-washy to me, however his reply to SirGabriel feels more like frustrated town (similar to what I got from bessie).


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