Secret Santa 2016 - D5 - Happy New Year!

[Madge]

2016 Secret Santa: A Very Aussie Christmas

Mod: Madge & dimochka
Speed: 4 day Days, going for Nightless with max Night length 24 hours, obviously with extensions around Christmas and other busy times. Weekends count as half time.
Bastardry: Possible naive roles or other concealed mechanics, though no spoiler reading or alignment changing. Possibly very poorly balanced.

Standard Rules:

Posting rules:

1. No posting in the game thread unless you are playing in it.
2. No talking about this game except in the game thread or in an appropriately titled spoiler in the discussion thread.
3. No player may read discussion spoilers about this game, even when they are dead. There are no spoiler reading roles.
4. No editing your posts. For any reason. At any time.
5. Do not lurk! One post per real-life day is the recommended minimum. Consideration will be given for weekends.
6. Players lurking excessively will be replaced or, if replacement is not possible, modkilled. See above.
7. Any player who is modkilled for rule violations (not lurking) will automatically lose.
8. You may post in thread during the day phase but not the night phase. It is night a the mod posts a day-end post (this will not be before the official deadline, but knowing Madge could be quite a bit after it), or a hammer vote is cast, in which case it is automatically night, whether or not a mod has made a day-end post. Note that this means you may not post content after a hammer vote.
9. You may not post, nor quote directly from, any PM from a mod. Paraphrasing is fine.
10. You may not play to lose, or act in a way that is clearly against your win condition.
11. You may not use encryption systems in order to communicate privately or circumvent these rules.
12. This is a game; it’s meant to be fun. Personal attacks or other offensive behaviour towards other players will not be tolerated.

Deadlines:

1. In general, days will last for 4 days. Nights will last for as long as it takes us to process night actions. Weekends will count as half time.
2. Adjustments will be made to accommodate holidays, or for other reasons if the mod deems it necessary.
3. In-thread deadline announcements from the mod override these rules.
4. Requests for extensions will be considered in exceptional circumstances only.
5. Deadlines are 'soft', meaning that posting and voting may continue after the deadline until the mod calls night.
6. Remember there is no talking after a hammer vote is cast.

Voting rules:

1. Votes and questions for the mod must be posted in bold and on a new line, like this:
   Vote: Madge
   
   You do NOT have to unvote to change votes, but it makes things easier and will be very much appreciated if you do. You can unvote in bold and on a new line, like this:
   Unvote (Madge)
   Vote: Egdam
   
2. When someone gains a majority of the votes, they are automatically lynched and it becomes night, as above. Posting content after the hammer vote is not allowed, even if the hammer vote was accidental.
3. If the deadline is reached and no player has been hammered, then the person with the most votes at the deadline will be lynched.
4. If the votals are tied, then the person who hit the tied number of votes first will be lynched, unless all players are voting solely for the tied players, in which case there will be no lynch.
5. You can vote not to lynch anyone by casting a vote for "NL" or “No Lynch”. “No Lynch” will be treated exactly the same as any other player for determining votal results, except that "No Lynch" always wins ties.

Death rules:

1. You’re alive until you are hammered in a lynch, or a mod tells you that you're dead, by PM or in thread.
2. Once you die, you may no longer post content in this thread. You may post death flavour or a ‘Bah! You killed me,’ post that reveals no information.
3. Dead people may not read spoilers.
4. Dead is dead. This is Christmas, not Halloween or Easter!

Private Message rules:

1. You must include the mods in any PM you send related to this game.
2. You can ask the mods questions by PM (at any time) if you'd rather not ask in thread.
3. No PMing other players concerning this game unless your role specifically allows it.
4. Any night actions must be sent by PM before the end of the day prior or within 24 hours of nightfall. If sent as part of a factional chat, please indicate the action in bold on a new line, as with voting. If you don’t do this and we miss your action, tough.
5. You can send backup actions but don't make the conditions too complicated.

Game Setup:

Spoiler:

This is a closed set up.
This means that I will tell you only what I think you need to know about the setup. You may ask me questions, but I may not answer.
I will not lie about the setup

Setup: Every player sends in a role, which is then randomly assigned to another player. The mod assigns alignments randomly to roles but alters the roles as necessary to maintain game balance. The mod may add factional abilities in addition to submitted roles. Most types of roles or powers are allowed: Christmas/holiday-themed or not, day actions or night actions or passive abilities, etc.
Claiming the role you sent in is strictly prohibited. If you do this you will be immediately modkilled with extreme predjudice.
Note that this includes hinting about it, giving information about it, saying 'I sent that role' in response to a claim.
And for the benefit of some of our sneakier, more legalistic players: I will modkill you even if the information is false, so don't try to 'reverse claim' either

Restrictions on submitted roles:

• No roles that specify a win condition or would only work with certain win conditions.
• Dead is dead - No roles with resurrection powers.
• No flavor-writing/influencing roles.
• No roles causing false role-reveals - hiding details is fine. (Naive miller/Naive godfather roles are acceptable, but the reveal will include both that the role was a miller/godfather and that the player did not know. Ditto sanities)
• No spoiler-reading roles.
• No alignment-changing roles.
• Roles may be edited (perhaps severely, or even replaced entirely) due to game balance, if the role doesn't follow the guidelines mentioned, or if the mod has some other reason. In the case of editing, the original author will not be informed.

Players:

1. Gopher of Pern - town - WINNER
2. Sabrar - town - WINNER
3. jimbobmacdoodle - town - WINNER
4. moody7277 killed n2 - town - WINNER
5. Djehutynakht mpolo - town - WINNER
6. Carlington lynched d3 mafia - LOSER
7. adnapemit lynched d4 - SK - LOSER
8. SirGabriel killed n1 - town - WINNER
9. SDK - town - WINNER
10. bessie - town - WINNER
11. matt96 killed n3 - independent - WINNER
12. RoadieRich lynched d1 - mafia - LOSER
13. emlightened lynched d2 - town - WINNER
14. kalira killed n1 - mafia - LOSER

[Madge]

Before I start the official proceedings of this game, considering this is going to be an exercise in cultural cringe and over-the-top Australiana, I would like to take a few lines to do an “Acknowledgement of Country”, a short acknowledgement often spoken before formal proceedings such as meetings, ceremonies, or special events as a gesture of respect to the traditional custodians of the land:

I am personally honoured to be on the ancestral lands of the whadjuk people of the noongar nation. I acknowledge the First Australians as the traditional custodians of the continent, whose cultures are among the oldest living cultures in human history. I pay respect to the Elders of the community and extend my recognition to their descendants who may be reading this.

With that in mind, let’s start the fun!

[Madge]

Christmastime was a time for family, and the Xenakis-King / Clarke-Dyer family Christmas celebration was always second-to-none, with twenty or so family members getting together on Christmas Eve for Carols by Candlelight in the local park and then all piling into the Xenakis-King’s large - but not quite large enough - house to go to sleep, wherever they could find space to lie down.

Before bed, some bikkies and a glass of milk was left out for Father Christmas, and a single carrot that was ostensibly for the nine tiny reindeer to share. Then everyone brushed their teeth, said their goodnights, and went off to bed.

Whilst the children dreamed, the parents in the group frantically got to work, doing last-minute gift wrapping, putting gifts under the trees, and frantically stuffing the stockings with a bevvy of the finest stuff that Red Dot and other assorted two buck shops could furnish them with.

Granddad took a bite out of the biscuits, to leave evidence of Santa’s visit, and Grandma drank the milk and ate most of the carrot, doing her part in the deception.

Finally, the gifts all placed around the tree, the christmas stockings filled to bursting, and a last glass of wine consumed, the adults retired to bed.

Morning came, and the Clarke-Dyer kids were first to get up, waking their Xenakis-King cousins and together they ran down to see what Father Christmas had brought for them. Their faces filled with delight as they saw the piles upon piles of presents - YAYYY!! - and ran to wake their families with the news that they had indeed been very good this year, because just look at what Santa had for them!

The parents woke up, shuttling the kids away from Grandma and Granddad's room so as not to wake them, and watched as a flurry of paper and cardboard invaded their living room. Hot milo was served to all the kids, despite the day already beginning to get hot and sticky as the early morning sunshine worked towards the promised 40 degree high.

After things calmed down a little, Mum went to get the grandparents out of bed, ask them if they wanted anything, and to encourage them to get up and watch the kids play with their new toys.

She walked into the room and went to gently shake Granddad awake; with a start, she realised his body was cold. She went to Grandma and she, too, lay there lifeless.

With a start, Ms Xenakis-King realised that there was only one explanation: someone had poisoned the bikkies and the milk! There was a murderer amongst them.

But who?

It is now Day 1. 14 players alive, 8 to hammer.

Day 1 ends in just under 5 days. The deadline is soft so you will be able to post and vote until a mod officially declares the day over.

All role PMS have been sent out. You may now post. If you didn't receive your role PM let me and dim know ASAP and we will locate it for you.

Note that we are going for a nightless game so please send in your night actions in advance.

Also note that dead players may not read spoilers. Apart from that the rules are pretty normal.

[SirGabriel]

Vote: Djehutynakht

for putting up Christmas decorations before Halloween is over.

[Djehutynakht]

...

That's fair. I won't contest that vote.

[Carlington]

Vote: SirGabriel
For needless adherence to traditional norms

[Gopher of Pern]

So, who left out the food?

[bessie]

3. No player may read discussion spoilers about this game unless they are dead.

3. Dead people may not read spoilers.

So which is it?

[Madge]

3. No player may read discussion spoilers about this game unless they are dead.

3. Dead people may not read spoilers.

So which is it?

Dead players may not read spoilers. Thanks for pointing out the inconsistency!

[Sabrar]

Vote: jimbobmacdoodle

I think it's been ages since he was scum so he must be one this time.

I assume 4 scum is the right number for 14 players, plus there has been an SK in all of the recent games despite me thinking otherwise so it's quite possible here as well.

Also it appears we have a resurrecting role...

[Sabrar]

EBWOP: I should really learn to read the rules. So no resurrection, but some other mechanic that allows the dead players to participate? Not sure how I feel about that.

[Sabrar]

@Madge: Shouldn't it be 8 to hammer?

[adnapemit]

I assume 4 scum is the right number for 14 players, plus there has been an SK in all of the recent games despite me thinking otherwise so it's quite possible here as well.

Is there a reason you would think otherwise for this game if the other games didn't have a SK?

[Carlington]

So, who left out the food?

An astute question! I don't know how much we can read into the flavour here, but I did note with interest the mention of very hot temperatures. Which leads me to think that I've got a strong lead on who scum is...

Unvote
Vote: Lethal food poisoning

EBWOP: I should really learn to read the rules. So no resurrection, but some other mechanic that allows the dead players to participate? Not sure how I feel about that.

Potentially also Option C: Madge wants to have the option of zombie replacements in case of inactivity.

[dimochka]

@Madge: Shouldn't it be 8 to hammer?

Yes, 8 to hammer.

[Sabrar]

Is there a reason you would think otherwise for this game if the other games didn't have a SK?

In previous games I always thought that having an SK would not make a balanced game. If I had been right there in my assumptions then I would feel confident about it here as well.

Potentially also Option C: Madge wants to have the option of zombie replacements in case of inactivity.

But that should be left for the player to decide anyways.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

OMGUS!

Vote Sabrar

For using faulty logic and voting me! Basically just checking in as I'm at an all day choir rehearsal and don't know my free time today.

I'm guessing the no spoiler reading after death might mean some sort of dead person communication ability.

[moody7277]

Drat, and I was gonna vote Sabrar for his Gambler's fallacy deal. Backup joke vote plan

Vote: SDK

Once again we duel.

Aside: while where I live isn't the beach weather of Aussie midsummer Christmas, it isn't the stereotypical winter wonderland of northern hemisphere Christmas either.

[SirGabriel]

Aside: while where I live isn't the beach weather of Aussie midsummer Christmas, it isn't the stereotypical winter wonderland of northern hemisphere Christmas either.

Me neither. We never get snow before January around here.

EBWOP: I should really learn to read the rules. So no resurrection, but some other mechanic that allows the dead players to participate? Not sure how I feel about that.

Potentially also Option C: Madge wants to have the option of zombie replacements in case of inactivity.

I'm pretty sure there's more to it than just zombie replacements, based on the "No Comment" I got when I questioned Madge about that rule via PM.

I'm guessing the no spoiler reading after death might mean some sort of dead person communication ability.

Sounds plausible. But would such an ability be useful for anything? It seems that it would only be useful if a townie has helpful information that for some reason they didn't reveal in the thread before they died.

If I had to guess, I'd say we have 9 town, 3 mafia, 1 serial killer, and 1 not-anti-town independent. Also, everyone is almost certainly a power role, but town almost certainly has some powers that aren't particularly useful for town, and scum likewise may have abilities that aren't particularly useful for scum.

Were roles distributed randomly, regardless of alignment?

[matt96]

Vote:Carlington
For being anti-Christmas and trying to pass this murder off as an accident. As I see it, either someone who knew they were faking Santa's visit wanted Grandma and Granddad dead or someone who didn't know wanted Santa dead. As far as setup goes, I think it is unlikely that there are not 9 Town, with 8 being more likely than 10 because set ups with even numbers of players typically have more indies in the mix. Given the first restriction on submitted roles, I think it is likely that roles and alignments have nothing to do with each other. The same restriction makes me doubt that the rule against dead players reading Spoilers means direct communication with deceased players, unless Powers that are very hard to use for certain win conditions is considered different from excluding those win conditions.

[SirGabriel]

The same restriction makes me doubt that the rule against dead players reading Spoilers means direct communication with deceased players, unless Powers that are very hard to use for certain win conditions is considered different from excluding those win conditions.

I don't think that follows. A Town Cop would not be a valid role submission, since it specifies the alignment, but a Cop would be a valid role submission because, even though it's not a particularly useful role in the hands of mafia, there is no reason why there can't be a Mafia Cop. The same would seem to apply to a role that allows direct communication with dead players: it's obviously more useful for town than it is for anyone else, but there's no reason mafia can't have such an ability, and in fact there is some chance that they could benefit from it (for instance, if the dead player had identified the serial killer but died before getting a chance to reveal that fact).

[kalira]

Vote: Freddy Krueger

For callously killing people in their sleep again... Though I don't know why he moved on from teenagers.

To comment on the recent discussion about whether or not roles and alignments are connected, I think it's important to keep in mind the last "rule" on role submission:

Roles may be edited (perhaps severely, or even replaced entirely) due to game balance, if the role doesn't follow the guidelines mentioned, or if the mod has some other reason. In the case of editing, the original author will not be informed.

Whatever we may have submitted may or may not have even made it into the game -- or might have been altered to a greater or lesser extent to fit the needs of the balance. My guess would be that roles and alignments were rolled independently and then roles were edited (if needed) to make sense.

I think it's actually not terribly hard to think of a way that cop could be useful to mafia -- just alter it to Role Cop and you've got a decently useful scum role. Granted, in a game like this, role name may not easily divulge abilities, but it isn't that far from the realm of possibility.

[emlightened]

Vote: adnapemit

For not expressing her shock at the loss of the Grandma and Granddad. It is a terrible, terrible tragedy, and we can only hope that no more happen over the course of the holidays (which, this being Mafia, there probably will).

There seems to be an interesting bit of flavour though, which is hopefully worth noting: two people were killed in the night. This suggests that there is likely two kill powers not in the control of town (scum and SK seems most likely), if flavour is suggestive of player's powers.

I'm pretty sure that this hasn't been answered:

Is flavour indicative of people's powers etc. or not?

[Madge]

Is flavour indicative of people's powers etc. or not?

Whilst helpful hints may creep into the flavour from time to time, more often than not flavour will indicate what I felt like writing at the time and is just as likely to be completely misleading.

Note, for example, that the flavour refers to about 20 people being at the house, but there are only 14 players in the game.

[kalira]

There seems to be an interesting bit of flavour though, which is hopefully worth noting: two people were killed in the night. This suggests that there is likely two kill powers not in the control of town (scum and SK seems most likely), if flavour is suggestive of player's powers.

Alternately, could indicate the presence of a poisoning power, given that they died because of what they ate/drank. Given Madge's response, I'm going to call it a null tell at this point, but good to remember should something in the future suggest that we give it more credence.

[bessie]

Aside: while where I live isn't the beach weather of Aussie midsummer Christmas, it isn't the stereotypical winter wonderland of northern hemisphere Christmas either.

Me neither. We never get snow before January around here.

And what is this northern hemisphere winter wonderland of which you speak? Both of the places where I am likely to be found in the holiday season (Southern California or Hawaii) are in the northern hemisphere. I don’t recall ever seeing any of this mysterious “snow” substance on Christmas. I have heard rumors of it though. They tell me it’s like Hawaiian shave ice.

Vote: jimbobmacdoodle

I think it's been ages since he was scum so he must be one this time.

How long do you consider “ages”? He was scum in Trial of the Pariahs in August, which you modded, so I don’t think you would have forgotten.

EBWOP: I should really learn to read the rules. So no resurrection, but some other mechanic that allows the dead players to participate? Not sure how I feel about that.

Agree with this. It has been a long Mafia tradition that you receive a consolation prize when you die, and that prize is that you get to read spoilers! To whomever submitted a role that can communicate with the dead so that the dead are not allowed to read spoilers, you are on my list for potentially postponing my fun.

There seems to be an interesting bit of flavour though, which is hopefully worth noting: two people were killed in the night. This suggests that there is likely two kill powers not in the control of town (scum and SK seems most likely), if flavour is suggestive of player's powers.

Alternately, could indicate the presence of a poisoning power, given that they died because of what they ate/drank. Given Madge's response, I'm going to call it a null tell at this point, but good to remember should something in the future suggest that we give it more credence.

I was thinking of FoSing emlightened over this remark. Seriously, you think this suggests there are two non-town kills out there? First of all, it’s in the opening flavor. Second, it’s a couple of NPCs, not players. Third, they’re both poisoned (this is from the flavor too) so that wouldn't make me automatically think two killers.

With a start, Ms Xenakis-King realised that there was only one explanation: someone had poisoned the bikkies and the milk! There was a murderer amongst them.

Actually, I should consider FoSing kalira too for not catching that the poisoning was in the flavor.

Well let’s see where we are. I don’t random vote, but others seem to enjoy it, so I won’t place a vote until everyone has had an opportunity to be part of the random voting fun.

[Sabrar]

How long do you consider “ages”? He was scum in Trial of the Pariahs in August,...

Yes, but he didn't start out as one so it doesn't count for rng purposes.

I think people are keen to read too much into flavour even when nothing suggests that it would be indicative. I'n not going to hold that against anyone.

[adnapemit]

For not expressing her shock at the loss of the Grandma and Granddad.

My shock left me speechless! Who would want to poison our loving grandparents!

How long do you consider “ages”? He was scum in Trial of the Pariahs in August,...

Yes, but he didn't start out as one so it doesn't count for rng purposes.

Yes but he was given the ability to become one(which was assigned to his role) which makes him at least half scum for rng purposes
....so their is a good chance he could be half scum again.

[moody7277]

re jimbob, he's got the same ~1/4 possibility of being scum as the rest of you have. His previous roles have nothing to do with that chance (hence my mentioning of the Gambler's fallacy), and also that game was by design using the more peculiar roles, so I think its applicability is a bit limited. Segueing into setup spec, I figure on 9/3/1(sk)/1(other indep), and thankfully the rules preclude cult. Basically, in a game with over a certain number of people, I'm going to assume SK until shown otherwise by body count, and even then I'm still going to have holding back as a possibility.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

For complete clarity, my last (and only) game as true scum was in Misnomer's Smalltown 2. I was also sort-of scum in Draculafia (sort-of in the sense that I was actually trying to kill scum effectively at the start of the game, so could be considered to be indie-aligned), and as noted in Trial of the Pariahs, where I was unknowingly a Silversmith, who turned scum right at the last moment before the game would have ended in my town-aligned victory (FTR, that game has made me permanently less likely to help indies, when a Town victory can be achieved immediately, instead of postponing). Of course, as moody mentioned, that makes me no more likely to be scum this game than anybody else.

FWIW, I am Town once again, although I feel that my ability would somewhat fit in scum's hands better than town's, but I should still have some use for it. (Of course, scum would say that they are town, so I don't really expect anybody to put any weight behind the claim).

Setup speculation leads me to expect lots of weird roles, some of which might be loosely based around standard roles (e.g. doctors who protect from next day lynch rather than night kill, or roleblockers who can only target people who voted for them that day etc). For that reason, I think this game is less likely to have a Serial Killer than others, since that is a win-condition and ability tied into one, but the killing ability might just be in addition to whatever normal ability a player has. There is of course a small chance of one or more players having no (useful) ability at all. I also don't think there'll be any particularly elaborate indies, since complicated indies usually have powers tied to their win conditions. I think that there could well be 4 mafia, and the rest town (or possibly 1 non-killing indie) - ignoring other abilities, that would still give Town two mislynches, which seems to be about the standard, but an SK being present is certainly possible (in which case the 3 scum and one other indie seems like a fair guess made by several people already).

I'm guessing the no spoiler reading after death might mean some sort of dead person communication ability.

Sounds plausible. But would such an ability be useful for anything? It seems that it would only be useful if a townie has helpful information that for some reason they didn't reveal in the thread before they died.

I'm basing my guess purely off the fact that DJ's first MMM had such an ability, so someone might have taken inspiration from there. Such a player could share information about night results (including potentially those they gained the night they died), general thoughts on other players, picking up slips etc. Another idea I had was that some players may still have the ability to influence the game post-death, but without posting, e.g. via usable night actions only.

I don't think this question was answered already:

Were roles distributed randomly, regardless of alignment?

Semi-arbitrary question time to try to get another discussion thread or two going:
1) Roughly how many game days do people think this game will last?
2) How likely do you feel that players other than yourself have roles that do not fit with (i.e. are the same as or minor variations of) any of the "traditional" Mafia roles, and why? (As per game rules don't use "because I did (not) submit one myself" style answers! Also unless you particularly want to claim it, I'm not looking for answers along the lines of "because I received a traditional role" etc).

Unless this game lasts until nearly Christmas, this is likely going to be my only really big post this game, as the next couple of weeks are looking pretty crazy.

[SirGabriel]

Semi-arbitrary question time to try to get another discussion thread or two going:
1) Roughly how many game days do people think this game will last?
2) How likely do you feel that players other than yourself have roles that do not fit with (i.e. are the same as or minor variations of) any of the "traditional" Mafia roles, and why? (As per game rules don't use "because I did (not) submit one myself" style answers! Also unless you particularly want to claim it, I'm not looking for answers along the lines of "because I received a traditional role" etc).

1. That's very difficult to say. It depends largely on when the serial killer dies, how many vigs we have, and how effective our roleblockers/doctors/etc. (if there even are any) are at blocking kills. Oh, and X-shot unlynchable/bulletproof are also possibilities. I'm just going to go with a wide range and say the game will probably end somewhere between D3 and N7.

2. Based on what I recall of previous Secret Santa games, I'd say most if not all of the roles in the game are non-traditional. Then again, I haven't actually read any Secret Santa games recently, so I could be remembering wrong.

[emlightened]

Semi-arbitrary question time to try to get another discussion thread or two going:
1) Roughly how many game days do people think this game will last?
2) How likely do you feel that players other than yourself have roles that do not fit with (i.e. are the same as or minor variations of) any of the "traditional" Mafia roles, and why? (As per game rules don't use "because I did (not) submit one myself" style answers! Also unless you particularly want to claim it, I'm not looking for answers along the lines of "because I received a traditional role" etc).

1) I'd say that it'll probably end between D4 and N5, but it might be a day outside it.
2) Last year, from what I can remember, about half of the roles were very flavour based (and had non-traditional powers), and the other half were less flavour based, but I don't think there were more than a couple of standard roles, if that. I think I expect the same for this year: most roles (two thirds, at an estimate) won't closely resemble a standard roll at all, with at least half of those doing something peculiar that was chosen with flavour in mind.
I'm also inclined to believe that there's going to be a SK or a vig (probably submitted), mainly because it seems likely someone submitted a kill power, and that it would be kept in for the game pace (otherwise 7/8 days is reasonable for 1 kill + lynch after roleblocks and doctors) and not be in Mafia hands, unless there are 3 mafia (which is a possibility, but seems unlikely).

[Madge]

Votals:

Djehutynakht - SirG
Jimbob - Sabrar
Sabrar - Jimbob
SDK - moody
adnapemit - Emlightened

I don't think this question was answered already:

Were roles distributed randomly, regardless of alignment?

No comment.

[Carlington]

My unvote was legit, just not the vote for food poisoning.

Unvote

[Sabrar]

Based on jimbob's first question it is extremely obvious that Madge included the Prophet role that she played in Trial of the Pariahs in this game and jimbob is trying to get our opinion without revealing too much. So jimbob's an indie and I should

Unvote

On a more serious note I don't think we would be done by D4 as that would require us to lynch/vig-kill perfectly. I would also be surprised if the game would last until D6, though if the game contains only one kill-power (that of scum) then it is entirely possible. So my guess would be D5-N5 but it depends on a lot of factors.
With 14 players I would assume at least 5 or 6 nonstandard roles just because people are often inclined to have fun when they can have a say in these things (see Impromptu Mafia for an example).

[adnapemit]

Finishing early doesn't mean a town win. If we get all lynches and everything goes terribly wrong and mafia kills are successful and with there the possibility of being other kills or powers it could all end by D3. I expect this game to last for about 5 days( I am currently thinking there might only be 3 mafia) so that would be a couple mis-lynches and then successful lynching for the other days if nothing surprising occurs. Then accounting for other powers/abilities that players might have I think it might still be about 5 days if the game is well balanced then abilities might cancel each other out.

[RoadieRich]

And what is this northern hemisphere winter wonderland of which you speak? Both of the places where I am likely to be found in the holiday season (Southern California or Hawaii) are in the northern hemisphere. I don’t recall ever seeing any of this mysterious “snow” substance on Christmas. I have heard rumors of it though. They tell me it’s like Hawaiian shave ice.

You're not missing much, believe me.

I'm here.

Vote: RoadieRich for delaying so long before posting.

Unvote.

I would have said there would be more than half to two-thirds non-standard roles, but that's based on an older player group's meta. Unfortunately, all my meta knowledge is somewhat outdated.

I will tell you my meta hasn't changed much, I won't be posting as much as many of you would like, and I'll probably die N1 or 2.

And I will go ahead and FoS: emlightened for reading far too much into opening flavour. What are you trying to distract us from?

[moody7277]

I figure that if someone submitted a killing role it could have been made town as a vig or indep as a SK, so those would be mutually exclusive.

Assuming three scum

Earliest possible town win:
with no SK
D3 assuming no vig, D2 with a vig

with SK
D3 or D4 depending on whether the SK hits scum

Earliest possible scum win:
with no SK
D4 LYLO, D5 win with no vig
D3 LYLO, D4 win with am unlucky vig

with SK
LYLO D3 if SK doesn't hit scum

Latest possible win:
no vig, no SK
MYLO D6

[kalira]

Apologies for textwall. (<-- this should appear at the beginning of most of my posts, it seems.)

I guess technically I should

Unvote

even though my vote was not counted amongst the votals... Geez, mods, just discriminate against my vote because I'm voting for someone fictional and not in game (unless someone submitted Freddy Krueger as their role -- can't entirely rule that out of course).

It's getting close to halfway through Day 1, and I am having some trouble. I usually really like trying to think about what roles might be in game early on D1, because it helps me get a sense of where the mod/game headspace is, but I feel like I can't ask people any of the questions I would like to re: setup because it might come close to the edge of that rule. Jimbob's question is about the closest I think we could get to anything like what I want to do. FWIW, knowing the group we're here with, I think there's a fair chance a large number of the roles will be somewhat non-standard. It's a relatively creative bunch, and having to create only one role without having to think about the balance of the game gives a decent amount of liberty to play around. Madge and dim I'm sure tried to keep what they could where they could, so I'm sure most of the creative/nonstandard roles stood as they were or with slight variation.

As far as what Day game will end, I have zero clue, honestly. I am generally horrible at figuring that stuff out, especially on Day 1. (Off topic: I thought Scooby Doo was going to be over like three times before it actually ended, and that was while the game was in full swing near its end. "Woo, we got that lynch; surely that's the last of the baddies" "Please submit your night actions" "Wait, seriously??") I guess if I had to throw a timeframe out, it would be around Day 5 or 6, but only because that seems to be around the norm for this forum. It's based on almost zero actual logic.

I'm also inclined to believe that there's going to be a SK or a vig (probably submitted), mainly because it seems likely someone submitted a kill power...

I somewhat disagree with this. The rules for submission stated that the roles couldn't "only work with certain win conditions" -- I think submitting a kill power might violate this, or at least really seriously skirt the edge of it, because I don't think it would work with a Mafia win condition. Key there for me is the fact that win conditions is plural -- if it was singular in that rule, you could probably get away with submitting it because "oh hey, it doesn't only work with one win condition; it works for anything not scum." IMO, a kill power would work for a town wincon and an indie wincon, but I can't see how it would for a scum wincon (cult is out of realm of possibility, so not considered in this analysis). If you want to try to convince me how a directed kill could work for scum wincon without being way too OP with a factional NK, I'm open to listening, but it seems to me like that wouldn't work.

Now that's not to say that I don't think there's a possibility of an SK or a vig out there -- I wouldn't put it past the mods to simply tack that on to a role with some minor(?) flavor adjustments to make sure it doesn't seem completely weird for that role to have it. I just don't know if it would have been a submittable role power.

Of course, now that I have written all of this out, it seems silly to have written it simply to argue the point of how an SK/vig got in game, rather than to argue whether or not they are present.

FOS: Roadie
You're the last one to check in, and you seem to have nothing to say about what's happened before you came other than to answer jimbob's questions?

Spoilered for real life -- the "Times I Might Not Be Around" edition:

Spoiler:

Before I forget, I'm probably going to be spotty on Wednesday, which will be near end of D1 in my time zone as far as I can tell, taking my pet of the feline variety to the animal allergist, which took several hours last time we went. Looks like official Day end is 7pm my time, so I should be able to be back before the end unless something dire happens. Will also be fairly out of contact most of the day Friday, but that looks like it will be in D2, so I'm less worried about that atm.

Preview edit for clarity: I am not taking a human named Catherine to an allergy specialist for animals.

Ninja'd: Moody, I'm not sure I'm following what you're saying about vig and SK being mutually exclusive. Is that only for your game end Day calculations? Or is there something more to it than that?

[SirGabriel]

Unvote

I'm also inclined to believe that there's going to be a SK or a vig (probably submitted), mainly because it seems likely someone submitted a kill power...

I somewhat disagree with this. The rules for submission stated that the roles couldn't "only work with certain win conditions" -- I think submitting a kill power might violate this, or at least really seriously skirt the edge of it, because I don't think it would work with a Mafia win condition. Key there for me is the fact that win conditions is plural -- if it was singular in that rule, you could probably get away with submitting it because "oh hey, it doesn't only work with one win condition; it works for anything not scum." IMO, a kill power would work for a town wincon and an indie wincon, but I can't see how it would for a scum wincon (cult is out of realm of possibility, so not considered in this analysis). If you want to try to convince me how a directed kill could work for scum wincon without being way too OP with a factional NK, I'm open to listening, but it seems to me like that wouldn't work.

Giving mafia a one-shot vig in addition to their factional kill isn't necessarily unbalanced, it really depends on what else is in the game. It would definitely be more balanced that the last chaos mafia game where we ended up with a two-man mafia team with a vote buy and a roleblock. And if someone submitted a vig that could kill every night, I think the mods would be more likely to cut it to one-shot rather than completely eliminate it if it ended up in the hands of mafia.
That being said, I find it very interesting that Madge won't comment on whether roles were distributed randomly. It's entirely possible that roles were distributed either to keep the game balanced while altering the roles as little as possible, or that roles were distributed to the factions that could make the best use of them. If the former is true, I can't think of anything useful we could conclude from that, and if the latter is true, then we could be either in a really good spot or a really bad spot depending on what roles we submitted.