Impromptu Mafia - Day 4 - GOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

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SirGabriel
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:40 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
SirGabriel wrote:I'll just say this: my win condition is tied to the win condition of one particular player, whom I do not wish to name at the moment. That player is currently lacking one of the typical powers associated with his role. Should he target me with the other power typical to that role, he will be granted the power he is now lacking.

Is that particular player a townie?

I don't know all of the details of their role, but I will know more about their role if they target me tonight.

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 17, 2016 2:07 pm UTC

@heuristically_alone: you've had plenty of opportunity to retract your vote that was purely based on faulty math (as others have pointed out as well). Why didn't you?

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby SirGabriel » Mon Oct 17, 2016 2:11 pm UTC

Since deadline's coming up, time for an analysis post:

heury - A lot of posts, but not a lot of content per post. Joke voted (I think) for Sabrar in his first post, has yet to unvote. Pointed out that it is unlikely everyone told the truth about whether they received the roles they submitted - maybe he's the one lying? He seems to be avoiding the spotlight pretty well, which is exactly what scum!heury would want, but then again it is possible that he actually submitted a town role and received the same role. Neutral for now.

jimbob - Hasn't posted much yet but promised a good post later today. Suggested that everyone who did not receive their own role and submitted a non-town role to claim the details of that role - that could be helpful to anyone, especially since for all I know we have eight different factions in the game, but town probably has the most to gain from it. Slightly townie.

Lawrencelot - Voted for heury (unclear whether it was a joke vote), never unvoted. Thinks lovers should not claim. Only player who has yet to claim the alignment of their submitted role. Says he'd rather look for scum than lynch me for claiming third party, but doesn't appear to have actually looked for scum yet. Slightly scummy.

matt - Submitted serial killer lover, asks lovers to claim. Considers possibilities for my role. Not a lot of other content. Says he thinks he received the town role submitted by mpolo, and at the moment that seems likely to me. Slightly townie.

moody - Only four short posts. The first two discuss possible setups, the third says he thinks I'm town-friendly, and the last one claims he is town. Since he has no real content this late in day 1, and he is among those who claimed to receive their own role, he's my scummiest read at the moment.

mpolo - Only three posts. Speculates on setup, speculates on why I claimed third party. Only player who claimed to submit a town role and receive a different role back - if he is scum, it's an interesting strategy to say the least, but I can't decide whether it's a good strategy. But I think we can safely say that he did submit a town role, since scum appears to have nothing to gain from that particular lie, unless of course he's the jester. Hasn't posted in over 24 hours. Slightly scummy.

Sabrar - Mentions in his first post that he submitted a jester role. Posted a lot, appears to actually be scumhunting. Several of his posts focus on me, but that's not surprising given my claim. He had been my biggest scum read, until I realized that there's a decent chance somebody is lying about receiving their own role. I still don't like his jester claim, since nobody but myself is playing like a jester and I know I'm not a jester, but it's possible that the jester role was removed from the game and the lovers chose not to publicly identify themselves. Neutral for now, but IGMEOY.

Vote: moody7277

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby moody7277 » Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:17 pm UTC

A little bit more on my role; if I'm not lynched, someone is going to get a goodie D2.

matt96-- got some interesting results re submitted roles and alignment, wants people to claim lovers (which I think is suspicious). Poking SirG on his linked win conditions, claims to have submitted a really complex role, which was where his concern about lovers comes from, puts his info on Lawrencelot's claim list. Slightly suspicious, but mostly because some of the claimed side effects of his role.

heury-- joke vote (I think) on Sabrar based on jester claim, got role and alignment submitted, some discussion about Sabrar's jester claim, then re-frames SirG's claim as jester. Dubious of my role submission claim because it just happenned to make it 4/4. claims town alignment. Circles back to Sabrar's first post to ask about the boring part. Freudian analysis of his early posts would indicate he's the jester, but I think it's much more likely heury is town playing relaxed.

Sabrar-- Wanted to be jester but didn't get it. Disputes heury's math, SirG's claim looks like he got the jester. Pro claiming submitted roles, fascinated by the vote buy aspect of matt's claim.

Sabrar wrote:1. If we have only 1 Mafia I think it's likely to be among those who claimed to have received their own submitted roles back.


shows an interesting hypothesis about player psychology. Who do you think is confident enough to request to play as scum? Likely town.

SirGabriel-- Joke vote on mpolo, claimed independent role, at a time that lends credibility to the claim, with some connection to another player. Not suspicious of the 4/4 split until re-read of setup (looks like honest misunderstanding). Poked Lawrencelot about his claims list. Role he submitted rather interesting, speculates tole he received a Madge creation. Not lynch-worthy right now.

mpolo-- Did not get submitted role, discussion of SirG's claim. Speculation on what 4/4 who did/didn't get their submitted role means. Neutral

Lawrencelot-- joke votes heury based off math errors. Against lover claiming (kinda obvious), discovered SirG's independent claim. Compiled list of claims with interest in more complete data from me and heury. Neutral

jimbobmacdoodle-- claims got back his submitted town role, agrees with heury on SirG jester possibility, math a little off. Discussion about mass claim of submitted roles with concurrent worry about informing scum. Leaning town.

Vote: matt96
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:28 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:shows an interesting hypothesis about player psychology. Who do you think is confident enough to request to play as scum?

This was not based on player psychology, rather on claims that are supposed to have been passed around and the fact that players claiming to have received their own submissions back are under less scrutiny.

On another note I find mpolo to be the lurkiest player, also if I'm reading it correctly his speculation about the 4-4 setup was based on a faulty assumption of the rules so overall null content. However due to the way ties are handled this game I'm extremely reluctant to set up a 5-way tie by voting him. Also we have to consider that if matt is telling the truth about his submitted role then there is still a chance of a vote-buy happening, therefore it would be much better to have at least 3 votes on the player we want to lynch to prevent mass shenanigans.

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby mpolo » Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:29 pm UTC

Wow, the time is going very quickly here. Give me a minute and I'll try to get some reads.
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:43 pm UTC

Extreme meta-consideration:

Madge wrote:4. All chat is daychat.
I honestly don't think Madge would have included this rule if there was no chat in the game.

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby mpolo » Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:59 pm UTC

Spoiler:
SirGabriel: claimed third party. Not lynch-worthy unless we see signs of maleficence. Submitted a delayed Serial Killer. Thinks he received a Madge invention.
Lawrencelot: seems to be scumhunting
heuristically_alone: initially confusing statement about the probabilities, though this was clarified later
matt96: claims to have submitted and not received a serial killer
jimbobmacdoodle: ruminations about what to claim. No Lynch is not a good option.
Sabrar: asking for more claims. Second SK probably removed for balance reasons. Thinks Madge wouldn't create a complicated role. Matt is likely town. Scum probably in people who got own roles.
moody: Came with a fairly detailed analysis after scrutiny started. Votes matt96 for side-effects of role.


A couple of people have called me to task for not posting a lot. This is mostly real-life stuff, and I seem to be in the wrong time zone this time around.

moody took a while to get information out there, but eventually came through with a solid set of reads. Neutral-townie
SirGabriel claims 3rd-party and I don't see any reason to waste a lynch here. Neutral
Lawrencelot: I'm fairly happy with his scumhunting. Weakly townie.
heuristically_alone: really only sticks out on the probability discussions. Neutral-need more content
matt96: Doesn't want to have details of his role made public (assuming I sent it to him). Weak townie.
jimbobmacdoodle: a little less active than usual for real life reasons. Neutral
Sabrar: Seems to be fishing for information more than anyone else. Also lots of making assumptions about "what Madge would do". This is making me a little nervous. Slight scumminess

Vote: Sabrar
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby mpolo » Mon Oct 17, 2016 4:04 pm UTC

The spoiler above is my notes. Feel free to read. Sorry about the confusion.

Also on Sabrar, there's sort of a process of elimination on this Witch-Doctor role. Three of the four that claimed getting a role from another seem not to have it, so ergo… (Sorry, just looked more closely at the list of claims. At least I now feel a little better about my vote now.)
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 17, 2016 4:35 pm UTC

@mpolo:
- could you point out what you mean by role-fishing and how it differs from any of the other questions the rest of the players asked?
- there are plenty of previous games on this site where I tried to guess the mod's intentions (usually with little success). Look up Wheel of Time for an example that featured it heavily.
- basically you assume that I'm Witch-Doctor because the other 6 players are all telling the truth? Yeah, I'm not buying it.

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby Lawrencelot » Mon Oct 17, 2016 5:31 pm UTC

Continuing from my previous post:

It seems the probability that we have a serial killer with vote buy and roleblock is way higher than 50%. Let me calculate the probability assuming matt did indeed submit that role and did indeed not get that role and that exactly 4 players in total (including matt) did not receive their submitted role:
P(matt's submitted role is in the game) = P(Madge did not replace any role) + P(someone other than matt received Madge's role) = 0.5 + 0.5*0.75=0.875
Yeah I think I will play the game assuming this role is out there. This role seems as dangerous as a 2-person mafia team, and I'm not sure we even have 2 mafia, or any mafia at all. SirG seems like a good candidate to possibly have this role. But so does mpolo, and possibly even matt himself (though I see no reason for him to claim to have submitted this role in that case). Also, someone could be lying about having received their submitted role. So basically anyone can have this role :(

Thanks moody and heury for answering my question. I also submitted a town role. I was trying to put pressure on you because I noticed the possibility of a 1-player mafia team who might be confused by this rule:
If the game starts with more mafia than town members, then they will swap alignments (so the mafiosi will become town and vice versa).


But since there were already people who claimed town this was likely to fail anyway, but still worth a shot.

Considering the dangerous third party roles and the lack of claimed submitted mafia roles, I'm really inclined to lynch SirG. However he is my top Jester candidate so I hope he will just die by any of the killing roles.

Agreed with jimbob that no lynch is out of the question.

I'm not too happy with moody's vote on matt, since his call for a lovers claim is actually pretty protown if he indeed submitted such a role. I would understand it in an earlier stage where matt's submitted role was not yet claimed, but now it seems a very weak move to vote for him. FoS: moody

Actually, come to think of it, there are probably no lovers in the game (meaning Matt's submitted role was replaced), or if there are, the lover of the one who received matt's role is probably not protown. I like Sabrar's reasoning on this, even if it tries to outguess the mod.

Not sure when deadline's coming so I'll just post this. Also, I'm willing to switch my vote to moody, which I will consider right now.

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby Lawrencelot » Mon Oct 17, 2016 5:40 pm UTC

Continuing:

I wrote:I like Sabrar's reasoning on this, even if it tries to outguess the mod.

However, I do not like Sabrar's reasoning about the daychat. If I were a mod I would easily put such a rule in if there were no daychat roles, at least, if I would have thought of it.

Moody hasn't done anything particularly scummy, but he's also not really committed to anything or tried to find scum. His last post is okay, but as I said above I don't like his concluding post.

Heuristically_alone on the other hand, has had some nice contributions lately, even though he's made some mistakes (in my opinion) earlier in the game. To me it feels like he's trying to find out who the bad guys are. However, I will keep track of him as the game progresses.

Unvote;
Vote: moody

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby moody7277 » Mon Oct 17, 2016 6:02 pm UTC

Lawrencelot wrote: since his call for a lovers claim is actually pretty protown if he indeed submitted such a role.


You don't think scum!matt looking for a possible twofer is a possibility? I think you're anti-goodie.
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby heuristically_alone » Mon Oct 17, 2016 7:07 pm UTC

What are the chances that no one submitted a mafia role (since that is starting to come off as a strong possibility)? The role Madge created could be mafia (if that role is even in the game). What would the town's win condition be? Kill off the SK(s)? Kill all the third parties?

(When I get off work I should have time to give my full analysis before the deadline)
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby heuristically_alone » Mon Oct 17, 2016 7:10 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@heuristically_alone: you've had plenty of opportunity to retract your vote that was purely based on faulty math (as others have pointed out as well). Why didn't you?


I had yet to find a reason to retract my vote. At this point I'd like to keep Sabrar as my vote at deadline. Full analysis as soon as I am home from work.
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 17, 2016 7:29 pm UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:I had yet to find a reason to retract my vote.

You're joking, right? You explained your vote here because you thought that me not receiving back my submitted 3rd party role would increase the chance of me being scum. I pointed out that this is faulty logic and I wasn't alone thinking so. You haven't replied to that ever since and neither have you explained yourself further. Multiple players even thought that it was a joke vote. How can you be serious about this?

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby mpolo » Mon Oct 17, 2016 8:08 pm UTC

Deadline is like at 4 am for me, so I will just say that I don't have a better target than Sabrar. Two people claimed to pass on serial killer roles, and four people have admitted to receiving a role from someone else. Two of those have given some information about their roles that make them at least plausible. I know my own role, which makes Sabrar a likely candidate for receiving one of those SK roles.

Obviously, we could have lying people among the people who claimed to keep their roles but actually passed them on, but in the absence of better evidence, I'm going with that and heading to bed.
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby matt96 » Mon Oct 17, 2016 8:17 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:Deadline is like at 4 am for me, so I will just say that I don't have a better target than Sabrar. Two people claimed to pass on serial killer roles, and four people have admitted to receiving a role from someone else. Two of those have given some information about their roles that make them at least plausible. I know my own role, which makes Sabrar a likely candidate for receiving one of those SK roles.

Obviously, we could have lying people among the people who claimed to keep their roles but actually passed them on, but in the absence of better evidence, I'm going with that and heading to bed.

Well, if you understand what I mean when I say that the first is the first, then you definitely submitted the role I got. I'll get reads out shortly, but for now I will say that I'm still not sure about letting SirGabriel live long enough to get targeted.

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby moody7277 » Mon Oct 17, 2016 8:27 pm UTC

heuristically_alone wrote:What are the chances that no one submitted a mafia role (since that is starting to come off as a strong possibility)? The role Madge created could be mafia (if that role is even in the game). What would the town's win condition be? Kill off the SK(s)? Kill all the third parties?

(When I get off work I should have time to give my full analysis before the deadline)


Town standard win condition is to remove all threats to town, be they scum, cult, or SK. It would be weird if no one wanted to play as standard scum, but as you said it is looking like a fair possibility (I wouldn't quite take it to good yet) considering all the off-the-wall roles people submitted.
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Oct 17, 2016 9:15 pm UTC

As promised, here's my reads and thoughts following a re-read.

Notes:
Spoiler:
heuristically_alone: votes Sabrar for claiming jester submission. Claimed to keep role, with original alignment. Asks matt why a lover is likely to be present. Tries to justify vote on Sabrar with probabilities. Thinks matt might have submitted mafia-aligned lovers. Points out SirG might be jester with third party claim. Thinks it unlikely exactly 4 people received their role. More discussion on jester and who it could be. Submitted town role. Asks for mpolo to claim the alignment of what he submitted (missed previous claim). Queries Sabrar about interesting roles. Speculates about possible lack of mafia. Hasn't retracted vote because of lack of reason to do so.

Lawrencelot: votes heuristically_alone for poor logic. Thinks Sabrar claiming Jester submission is pro-town. Thinks people shouldn't claim lover without further information from matt. Submitted role did not change alignment. Spots SirG claimed third-party. Won't vote him unless there's no idea who is scum. Asks moody and heuristically_alone to claim if they have Town roles. Considers probability of SK-lover role being present. Thinks SirG most likely jester. Agrees with me about no No Lynch. Dislikes moody's vote on matt. Thinks there are likely no lovers in the game, or that if there are, neither is pro-town. Doesn't like moody's lack of commitment or lack of attempts to find scum. Thinks heuristically_alone is genuinely scum hunting. Votes moody.

matt: asks about whether alignments were kept or not, promising important information if so. Asks for lover claims, refuses to explain why initially. Wants clarification from SirG about his claim. Reveals a bit more about his submitted role and why he asked for the claim that he did, then full claim about his submitted role. Thinks he received mpolo's submission. Responds to my question about his submitted role's win condition.

moody: speculates about scum total. Got role and alignment requested. Thinks SirG is pro-town third party. Submitted town role. Reads list, claims someone will receive a goodie D2 if he isn't lynched. Has matt as slightly suspicious, heuristically, me, Sabrar, everyone else third party or neutral. Votes matt. Thinks Lawrencelot is "anti-goodie".

mpolo: did not receive own role. Submitted town role. Lots of third party submissions does not mean lots of third parties. Thinks SirG more likely third party than lying scum. Looks at breakdown of submissions and what information can be gained, but comes to no conclusions. Reads list with Sabrar as slightly scummy, with everyone else weak townie or neutral.

Sabrar: submitted, and did not receive a jester role. Claims Town. Asks for explanations from heuristically_alone (re. vote) and matt (re. lovers). Finds SirG's claim suspicious, thinks might be the jester. Confused by heuristically's maths. Against claiming at this point. Agrees that those who didn't receive their own role should claim. Points out SirG's missing case, re. liers amongst those keeping roles. Thinks it entirely possible that one SK was discarded. Thinks Madge would have made up a simple role. Thinks Matt town. Thinks solo mafia is amongst those who claimed to keep role, if present. Queries why heuristically_alone didn't retract vote on him. Finds mpolo to be lurkiest player, but doesn't want to setup 5-way tie. Responds to mpolo's suspicion. Seems very confused by heuristically's stance re. his vote on Sabrar.


heuristically_alone: No serious gripes with him. His partial focus on the jester feels ok, if a little overdone (but that might just be the way I was reading through the posts). Hasn't discussed much about anyone else yet, and has a vote on Sabrar for no obvious reason other than the fact that he claimed to have submitted a jester role and wasn't that and therefore is more likely to be Mafia. Faulty logic, as previously noted - I think it's a little telling that when I read his posts in isolation, I initially read the vote as a joke vote. Overall, I don't feel he's Mafia (or other scummy third party role), but he might be third party. In particular, I almost wonder whether he is the jester.

@heuristically_alone - I'm assuming that if there is no Mafia, we still need to kill the SK(s) to win as Town.

Lawrencelot: General feeling is good about him. His votes so far seem well thought out, as do his other thoughts. His conclusions re. lovers (or lack thereof) agree with mine. I'm not as convinced as he is about heuristically's townieness, but otherwise, everything else sounds pretty good to me. Town.

matt: I don't get any scummy vibes, but he hasn't really talked about other players at all, which he needs to do. I definitely believe his claim about his submitted role, together with his reasoning for the lover questions. Not much else to go on just yet. Slightly scummy due to lack of thoughts on other players.

moody: as pointed out by Lawrencelot, moody's content is rather low. This feels similar to previous encounters with him though, so I'm not sure I can necessarily put it down as scum. Doesn't appear to have many strong opinions, but this is D1 so can probably be slightly forgiven. I disagree with his reason for voting matt (I think he finds him suspicious because of his lover requests), although voting matt is probably still defensible. His reads are mostly summaries, with only a few thoughts sprinkled in between. Slightly scummy due to lack of decent reasoning.

mpolo: Simple reads list, but has clear reasoning for all his opinions. Not much else to go on here. I think he's being a bit harsh on Sabrar, since we all are more or less trying to get information about the setup. Slightly townie.

Sabrar: General gut feeling is that he is the same as he is always, which puts him on the townier side of things by default. His reactions to suspicions on him match my own - i.e. I don't find that he's role-fishing, and heuristically_alone's vote reasoning appears to be quite poor. On the other hand, apart from those two, and SirG as jester he hasn't really commented much on player behaviour yet (he has matt as town, but no explanation that I saw, though I could have missed it). I'm marginally inclined to push Sabrar into the third-party camp, but could easily be town.

Out of time to reread SirG properly. Quick summary is that I don't feel that he's acting anti-town like, so he may be a pro-town indie, although I could see him as an SK trying to duck under the radar for now. I'm slightly suspicious about this idea of someone searching for him, so he may be lying about his role. Nobody has claimed that they are looking for him, and thus it seems likely that they are anti-town, which in turn makes SirG likely anti-town as well. Thinking on it, I could easily see a mafia player missing their night kill until they target SirG, as an example of a possible role, with SirG a traitor-like role.

Urrgh, I don't like having to make a rushed decision like this, but I should vote now before day end. My scummy reads are matt and moody, with SirG potentially anti-town. Moody acted like this in the last game, I believe (and was more or less town), matt's scumminess is mostly due to lack of thoughts, which I know I've put too much stock in in the past, and there is some indication that he received a town role from mpolo, though only small amounts. Unlike others, I don't believe SirG to be a jester, which makes my vote:

Vote: SirGabriel

I'll check in again briefly in about an hour to see if there are any responses.
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 17, 2016 9:18 pm UTC

Unofficial votals::

Sabrar (2) - heuristically_alone, mpolo
moody7277 (2) - SirGabriel, Lawrencelot
matt96 (1) - moody7277
SirGabriel (1) - jimbobmacdoodle

Probably going to vote for moody for pretty selfish reasons if nothing else changes. Deadline is super awkward.

Ninja'd by jimbob. Will read through.

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 17, 2016 9:34 pm UTC

@jimbob: at the beginning you thought SirGabriel could be Jester. What made you change your mind?

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 17, 2016 9:43 pm UTC

The reason why I didn't make a read list was simply the lack of data that I could work with. Plus my reads have been super-bad in the past few games so I was basically waiting for D2 to have more info and night-results. I think Madge would definitely sympathize. :)

Disjointed thoughts:
- I haven't thought about the possibility that heuristically_alone could be Jester, but it might make sense. I would then have to re-evaluate SirGabriel who would seem to be a safe kill just because he might be SK running a gambit.
- Don't appreciate mpolo not responding to me, seems he decided to play this by the numbers without considering actual content and I don't believe this is a good strategy.
- Re-reading moody he got 2 votes because of lurking and his vote on matt. I agree with both reasons so I won't feel too uncomfortable if I have to vote for him to save my own skin.
- my read on matt was based on the claims he made that could be easily verified. If Lover's announce themselves and they die we would see if there was an SK among them. Also if he reveals his role mpolo could verify if it was the same that he submitted. On second thought I made a mistake with the first point, matt could still be standard Mafia wishing to reveal the SK, for some reason I interpreted one of his comments as the Lover would be Mafia, so it seemed unlikely at the time that he would try to rat out his scum-buddy. Since then though he came forward with another detail that could prove he received mpolo's Town role. Of course there is the possibility that he and mpolo are the scum-team in which case all bets are off.

Will be online for a little while.

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby heuristically_alone » Mon Oct 17, 2016 9:46 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:A little bit more on my role; if I'm not lynched, someone is going to get a goodie D2.


I have no idea what this means. What does he mean by goodie?
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 17, 2016 9:51 pm UTC

Inventor
Keymaker

Basically someone who targets another player during the night and gives him an ability to be used later. Of course it could be a scum role as well:
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby heuristically_alone » Mon Oct 17, 2016 9:59 pm UTC

Ah, so it should be easy enough to discover if moody is town or not if we were to wait and see who gets the goodie and have them use it to see if it works.
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:01 pm UTC

Well yes, but that means waiting until Day 3 and by that time game could be over if there are 2 SK-s or Mafia + SK.

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby Sabrar » Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:07 pm UTC

Time to sleep.

Vote: moody7277

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:34 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@jimbob: at the beginning you thought SirGabriel could be Jester. What made you change your mind?
A fair question. In general, my earlier thoughts were built up after reading whatever were the most recent posts in isolation. I honestly can't remember why I thought him likely the jester back then, but having skim-read his posts again, I don't get that same feeling. Plus, I felt that he put more effort into his reads post than a jester would.
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby moody7277 » Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:53 pm UTC

So, reviewing the tie vote rules, Madge has made a REALLY good system for preventing shenanigans. It also makes a defensive vote much more precarious. In example:

I know I'm town and don't want to be mistakenly lynched. Normally I'd defensive vote Sabrar in this case in the hopes that if tie->NL there would only be one townie die due to NK, or in the case that tie->coinflip there's a slim chance I'm wrong in my impression of Sabrar, I survive the coinflip, and Sabrar flips scum. With Madge's setup, either of those could happen, or there's the nightmare scenario that both Sabrar and I die and are both town, and a third townie dies overnight.

I think I'm just going to shut up and take my medicine. Might be a bit OMGUS, but I am thinking the team is matt-Lawr.

Oh, and Sabrar, you missed one: Gunsmith. huery would have gotten the goodie.
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby Madge » Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:51 pm UTC

Votals:

sabrar (2) - heuristically_alone, mpolo
moody7277 (3) - SirGabriel, Lawrencelot, sabrar
matt96 (1) - Moody
SirGabriel (1) - jimbobmacdoodle


Day 1 ends in 4 hours

(courtesy note: day end is during my lunch break, so if night doesn't fall by 1 hour after deadline, you probably have another 5 hours or so)
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby Madge » Tue Oct 18, 2016 12:55 am UTC

Votals:

sabrar (3) - heuristically_alone, mpolo, sabrar
moody7277 (2) - SirGabriel, Lawrencelot
matt96 (1) - Moody
SirGabriel (1) - jimbobmacdoodle


Day 1 ends in ~3 hours
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby matt96 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:17 am UTC

I suppose that confirms that we are fucked, as whoever is paired with the serial killer must be capable of winning alongside them, meaning 3 votes tomorrow, I'm going to focus my reads on who I think may have gotten my role, which has been shown to exist.

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby heuristically_alone » Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:33 am UTC

My reads spoilered for length

Spoiler:
Sabrar- There are two things that Sabrar has stated that has stood out more than anything to help me make my read. The first, of course is his very first post, warning us about the potential of a Jester role he had submitted. The second, when he quoted Madge’s rule “All chat is daychat” using it as an argument for the possibility of more than one mafia. Sabrar is a very logical and smart player, and from what I understand of his meta is that he plays pretty similarly as both town and scum. No matter what he draws, he will be a great scum hunter. Here he has given us two important pieces of information that normally scum would not want the town to have. However, to me it almost feels as if Sabrar is giving this super pro-town this information to erase all probability he could ever be suspected. Think about it, what would the advantages of town vs mafia be by pointing out this slightly “obscure” (for lack of a better word) rule about day chat? As town, it doesn’t really give town any extra useful information on finding scum. As a scum, you can smugly hide behind the fact that you fooled everyone into thinking you are making an honest effort to help out. There is at the very least one SK out there, and at least one of the four that didn’t receive their claimed role has to be an SK, I think Sabrar is the most likely suspect.

Matt- One of the 4 that did not receive the role they claimed, yet the most likely to be town out of those 4. He speculates that the role he received possibly initially had a different alignment and that the mod possibly changed the alignment before giving it to him, which means he might have a role mafia aligned that is normally town aligned, or a role town aligned with a power that is normally associated as a mafia action. Because he so freely offered this information, it leads me to believe the latter.

Heury- obviously town and the best looking player

Lawrencelot- For the first couple pages, it seems he just took in information. Occasionally commenting or clarifying. On page 3, he confirms that the role he had submitted and received was town aligned, along with some probability of SK with vote buy and roleblock. It made me happy to see Lawrencelot challenge Sabrar’s reasoning on daychat. Slight lean town.

SirGabriel- I find it hard to believe that anyone would claim to have received a third party role while being Serial Killer, thus painting a target on their own back. Granted he claimed this before the two SK submitted claims. Could be a little bit of third party WIFOM. It is possible that he submitted an SK role and received a different SK role, but by stating that he submitted an SK role he hopes it is assumed that he is not SK. He claims that his win condition is tied to the win condition of one particular player. @SirGabriel, do you believe this other player knows another player’s win condition is tied to his win condition?
In conclusion, if and only if there are 2 SK roles, I believe SirGabriel is one of them.

moody- In moody’s first post “One scum, probably not the case as it wouldn't be fun to play as lone scum". If there is only one mafia, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see that moody is that mafia, knowing they are on their lonesome. I still hold to the belief that if any player were lying about having received or not received their role, moody could be a candidate, though moody could be telling the truth and still be mafia. Most of this is my own speculation as there hasn’t been much more content. (Who is Lunchmeat?) Moody then claims to have a role that gives goodies at night. (I have never heard it phrased as goodies before, just items). I have to say neutral for now.

mpolo- Really the only information he has provided is that he submitted a role he did not get that would work with any faction. Mpolo uses the time zone excuse for not providing content, but he has plenty of time to post. Either he has been busy in real life or could be lurking slightly as strategy. Neutral read.

Jimbob- If you were to ask me to recite all the player’s names, I’d be able to name them all except for Jimbob. For me, he has flown underneath the radar and I haven’t given him much thought, not for lack of posting content. Just curious if anyone else has felt this way about him. Claims to have gotten the town role he submitted).
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Importantly, only one role could be a role that wasn't submitted, so if everyone who didn't keep their role were to claim their submission, we could potentially compare that to the claims people make about their role and flush out lying scum. However, I'm not sure whether it would be good for people to claim what town roles they submitted as it might give too much info to scum. Any thoughts anyone?

Personally, I think if everyone claimed their submitted roles, it would most likely guarantee a town win, but since there are so many third parties it seems, I doubt majority will want to claim.
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby matt96 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:06 am UTC

Just want to make sure I put out something before night occurs, but right now my 3 top scum picks would be SirGabriel, Heuristically_alone, and moody in that order, moody is more of an impression than anything specific, Heuristically_alone's actions all game so far have seemed rather bizarre, and I still really don't like SirGabriel's claim

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby matt96 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:19 am UTC

Might as well
vote: SirGabriel
Because as much as I don't like the idea of moody giving heuristically_alone a gun, I think the possibility of lynching two players is worse.

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby heuristically_alone » Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:24 am UTC

Madge wrote:Votals:

sabrar (3) - heuristically_alone, mpolo, sabrar
moody7277 (2) - SirGabriel, Lawrencelot
matt96 (1) - Moody
SirGabriel (1) - jimbobmacdoodle


Day 1 ends in ~3 hours


Sabrar is voting for moody.
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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby Sabrar » Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:24 am UTC

@matt: when there is a specific time given for night-fall it usually means a hard deadline, meaning after that no posts should be made. Given Madge's earlier comments we might have some additional time if she doesn't come online in the next hour, but until that we should respect the original deadline.

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby matt96 » Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:29 am UTC

Game specific rule 2 is that deadlines are soft, days continue until mod says it is over

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Re: Impromptu Mafia - Day 1 - The Fall of Dirk Klop

Postby heuristically_alone » Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:30 am UTC

2. Deadlines are soft; you can still post, vote, etc until the mod declares the day is over. The mod is pretty disorganised so expect deadlines to be lower bounds and potentially exceeded by several hours.
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