jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Posting from phone so no link, but my wall of text from the weekend demonstrates it. Assuming SirG was one of three scum, Matt can't be scum by simple fact that he isn't one of adnapemit, dimochka, generalz and moody.
Forgot to say this before but from what SirG was saying, and addressing a point someone made, I reckon he didn't have chat with his teammates. IIRC, he implied his teammates didn't know him to be scum.
Hmm. I've gone back and reread that post and agree with all of it. It mirrors my own thoughts quite closely.
My only concern is that it rests, in its entirety, on an assumption that there were not 4 Mafia (including SirG) initially, but only 3.
The claims we have, and Madge's info, seem to support that premiss, but we can not
blindly assume that it's the case.
Let me indulge in a little postulation (all the following for the sake of argument):
'Pure' Mafia is dim, matt, adnap.
'Usurper' Mafia is SirG.
Indie is Madge.
Town is the remaining 7 players, including moody and generalz as Masons.
That's 4 wincons == 4 factions, ∴ Madge's info is preserved OK.
SirG identifies adnap and dim as scum, but not matt. Makes sense, SirG needs Mafia to win, and to survive someone (presumptive Godfather) in order to win. Not identifying matt makes that more likely.
matt has the power to prevent lynches - an ability that really helps scum more than town.
matt did not (apparently) use a power on N2, when roleblocked by jimbob - almost certainly true. However Lying -> Scum doesn't imply Not-Lying -> Not-scum.
AFAICS, there's nothing (other than the assumption of 3 scum) that logically prevents matt from being scum.
So let's look at actions:
matt claims Communist and needs a No Lynch to win - but No Lynch is (generally) not favourable to town. Good fake claim for scum!matt looking to get a strategic NL without arousing too much suspicion.
matt prevents the lynch of adnap, who has behaved in a hugely anti-town manner at the end of D3. If we contend, as seems likely, that adnap is in fact scum, I'm not sure this can be explained.
matt has got a win as a "Communist", which I would have thought would remove him from the game; I can't see Sabrar letting him remain with no win condition (what's his motivation to even participate, let alone help one side or the other?). So either I'm wrong, he has a new wincon that he hasn't claimed, or he was scum all along.
I'm not liking the way this is going.
On this assumption, we're currently 9:5/3/1.
Let's assume we lynch dim and scum!matt can rearrest adnap. That's 4/2/1 with an NK.
We clearly lynch matt in that case: 3/1/1
Lynch adnap: Town win on D6
Let's assume we lynch matt: 4/2/1
Lynch dim/adnap: 3/1/1
Lynch adnap/dim: Town win on D6
Let's assume we mislynch: 3/3/1
At this point Madge should side with scum, make her guess and win. Failing that best case with Madge's full cooperation and no fuckups is that Madge becomes the kingmaker at 1/1/1
So I think the conclusion is that matt could be scum, but it only really matters if he can keep up a non-scum pretense until tomorrow. Which should be very hard.
Next thing to examine: is there any preference to one possible scum team or the other if matt is, in fact, scum? I think there isn't, which means we should still probably lynch dim today.