2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - Game Over

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby bessie » Wed Jan 06, 2016 4:58 pm UTC

Hi everyone, I received my role PM. I am on my way to work but I will try to read the thread during my breaks and will post tonight. If anyone has any questions I will do my best to answer them.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Snark » Wed Jan 06, 2016 5:40 pm UTC

N2 target - Minestrone. Result: Serial Killer, Role Name: Admiral William Adama, N2 target: Sabrar

So it got the role name wrong but the other parts right. This is consistent with no one claiming to be Mr Potato Head despite it making them confirmed town from my point of view. Whoever I targeted N1 after being redirected (probably Misnomer) was town and targeted crucialityfactor, but was not named Mr Potato Head.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Snark » Wed Jan 06, 2016 5:41 pm UTC

The question remains whether it always gets the role name wrong or if it gets 1 out of 3 wrong randomly, or what exactly is going on.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Snark » Wed Jan 06, 2016 5:44 pm UTC

I suggest Gab invent some sort of day-use investigation ability and do it quickly since we have no real leads at the moment. Something as simple as alignment cop would probably work fine, but you could get greedy and ask for a full role details cop or something more complicated.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Lawrencelot » Wed Jan 06, 2016 5:44 pm UTC

Hi guys, I couldn't really find a chance to post in the holidays but I'm sort of back. I will try to reread and make a meaningful post before the end of the week.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Wed Jan 06, 2016 5:55 pm UTC

Welcome bessie and Echo. Bessie, I hope you are able to post more than your predecessors :)

My night result says that only two kills were attempted last night. I'm presuming therefore that the scum team killed Minestrone and Minestrone killed Sabrar. However, Minestrone also claimed in chat that he was planning on recruiting Sabrar last night. I can't see a good reason for him to both recruit and kill the same player. He might have lied about who he was going to recruit, but I don't see why. Or, I guess he could have been redirected by moody or someone else.

If Minestrone targeted Sabrar with both his powers would he have been poisoned, given the roleblock effect of his recruiting ability?

On the topic of setup, my guess is that we have either 2 or 3 scum left. If it is 3 and ignoring player abilities, we are at LYLO, so be careful with your votes people.

@Mpolo, why did you originally choose to watch SirGabriel, and why would you have watched Minestrone? Also, did you get a result at all?

My first impression is that mpolo is being truthful. Please be more careful next time!

Ninja'ed by Snark. I agree that an investigation would be helpful, but if we're worried about it being LYLO, maybe a vig or doctor?

More later hopefully.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Echo244 » Wed Jan 06, 2016 8:11 pm UTC

Hi all. Just a quick post to check in - I'll be doing a full re-read tonight and in quiet moments at work tomorrow. Questions welcome, I like the idea of a public result day-power investigation, I'm also concerned at how close to LYLO we might be, so no hasty leaping to a vote on anyone.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby emlightened » Wed Jan 06, 2016 8:49 pm UTC

Is it possible that there's another SK? If Minestrone could only use one of his abilities each night, then that would imply a vig/SK kill on Sabrar, which would change what we should do tonight if so. I'm suspicious of mpolo, for the convenience of both the N1 target and the N2 target being useless. (@mpolo: why did you choose SirG before trying to change it?)

Analysis on mpolo, from D1:
First post suggests allignments saying 4-5 scum ("most likely a mafia and a serial killer"), 1-2 independents, and possibly a couple of masons, and comments on potential strange role/alignment combos (as seen with Madge, a mafia member who had the ability to block all nightkills). Screws up on how statistics work, which is just odd; seems slightly defensive of jimbob. Lawr and jimbob think there's more D1 content than normal. Quick analysis, seems fine. Madge FoS's mpolo, but doesn't vote. Misnomer puts him as very 'Nice' (alongside Madge). Votes Madge despite agreeing with her, quickly changes to Misnomer and soon unvotes. Votes for Madge again, states strong opinion against her earlier on; unlikely to be maf.

D2: Says that he watched crucialityfactor, who was visited only by Misnomer (both died in the night). It would have required Misnomer targeting crucialityfactor with his ability, which had a 1/5 chance of killing, for this to be true. (Also, if Minestrone could have done both actions in one night, it would have required his kill also coinciding with the scum kill.) Unlikely, but possible. Claims that he watched the towniest person, despite voting for them earlier and not changing his preferences.

He wasn't sure who to vote for between Madge and Misnomer (on the grounds that they felt the same to him, (here), says that Misnomer is who he thought was most townie at the time (here), yet greatly prefers a Madge lynch to a moody lynch (here), basically implying that he found Madge much scummier than moody, and that Misnomer both felt the towniest at the time and as scummy as Madge (more than moody). This contradiction leads me to believe that the reasoning for who he picked isn't valid, and that he lied about the choice. This basically puts him down as 99% chance of being a SK (or other non-town alignment; SK makes the most sense to me), but please analyse to see if I missed anything here.

Sounds very defensive against SirG saying that his claim was very convenient, even though the events were unlikely. Claims that the claim was because more information helps the town, but it was done at a stage before any potential discussion about drawbacks (he jumped on it, and didn't wait for potential reasons against broadcasting the results). Says that there is good reason to doubt his results based on Snark's inconsistent ones (even though it's already known to be inconsistent with SirG, and hence it's more likely that his are right, if real), after calling SirG out earlier for saying that saying results being untrustworthy is a scum-tell (I don't think that this actually puts him in either direction). Suspicious of moody whilst he's poisoned, proposes vote, votes and then unvotes, despite this bringing about easy potential for scum to mislynch, as Sabrar noted.

D3: Says that he had a watch on SirG and changed it to Minestrone, but failed to send it. Considers moody's redirects.

If it weren't that we're potentially at LYLO, and that lynching a SK gets a scum win in that case, I'd vote. It seems like the best course of action is to hope that mpolo kills a mafia, or for SirG/someone else to roleblock him, and us hope to lynch a mafia tonight.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby bessie » Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:30 am UTC

It’s been raining for two days and in Southern California that’s like the apocalypse. We’ve already had a power outage and a cable outage (which is how I get my internet). I got home and my bedroom ceiling is leaking and there’s water dripping down the wall in my office, so my posting will be delayed because I need to move some stuff around. I still hope to have something tonight or tomorrow morning. Does anyone have a summary list of day/night actions and claims (or point me to a post)? It will save me some time if someone has already done the work, but if not I will make one as I do my read through.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby mpolo » Thu Jan 07, 2016 5:26 am UTC

I thought SirG was town, and at the point I sent in the action, he was in no danger of being lynched.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby emlightened » Thu Jan 07, 2016 8:25 am UTC

The D3 thing was more of a footnote, but it is true that both days have, pretty much through sheer chance, given us nothing. (The N1 kill only having had a 1/5 chance of happening at the time, and failing to switch from SirG being plausible, but obviously not the sort of thing that happens often.)
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:26 am UTC

Let's actually get a mod answer on multiple action usage:
Can a serial killer or mafia performing their factional kill perform a different action that night as well?

I think it likely that they can. N2 kills are then easily explainable with the information we have. However, that leaves some inconsistency in our N1 knowledge. Assuming Minestrone performed a kill N1, which I think is likely, either mpolo is lying (possibly unintentionally if his result was messed with; also includes the possibility that he as mafia killed cf) or we ended up with a double kill on Misnomer, which I could see as a possibility.

Off the top of my head, I can't think of a good reason for mpolo to lie about this, so I think the double kill is possible.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:38 am UTC

Forgot to say/ask this:

@mpolo - you didn't answer most of my earlier question. Why would you have chosen Minestrone instead of SirGabrield. Also did you get some kind of response from the mod regarding your action on SirGabriel, and if so, what was it?
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby mpolo » Thu Jan 07, 2016 10:02 am UTC

I did get a result on SirGabriel: No one visited him.

Minestrone was my just quickly fixing on a name of someone who was active, and so might be targeted, because I suddenly realized I had no valid target in. (I will always put a backup in from now on, which I actually did on day 1…)
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby bessie » Thu Jan 07, 2016 4:50 pm UTC

Starting at D1, here are some things that stand out to me. I’m only including players that are currently alive. I am at least skimming all players and will come back to my impressions of dead players after I finish reading the thread.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'd guess that SirG is one of the top three (town, mafia, SK), since they are almost default factions, and so unsurprising that they are at the top or something random not in the list, since he put "Other" so far down, despite currently playing in a game involving an other faction (aliens in Smalltown).

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Based purely on typical setups, it's most likely to me SirG is town, then mafia, then SK. Nothing on his list struck me as all that odd. I'd have probably put 2nd mafia higher up above the crazier factions, which might have made me suspicious, but I doubt that one Mafia would know about the other at this stage.

I find these two statements not exactly odd but why two posts to point out that SirGabriel is one of the top three? Why not point out that in a typical setup most players are town, not just SirGabriel? It seems like you are trying to stick a townie label on SirGabriel early in the game with little evidence other than the list where he put town at the top.

freezeblade wrote:I'm expecting a good amount of indies in this game, actually.

With probably many crazy roles, my initial thought would be very few indies. This statement makes me think freezeblade is indie.

mpolo wrote:So, my assumption is that Suzaku took a certain number of alignments and just distributed them randomly. I'd think 4-5 scum, which is most likely a mafia and a serial killer. Maybe 1-2 independents (jester, survivor, lyncher, or the like). Maybe a couple of townies are masons, though I wouldn't expect more than 2 or 3.

That said, this is all going to work together really strangely with roles and alignments, as we likely have some very unusual roles, which may or may not have interesting repercussions when combined with certain alignments.

Jimbobmacadoodle's first post was fairly cautious, but I don't know that I would have done much better at guessing alignment from a list of probable alignments. Nonetheless, we'll have to watch him to see how that develops (on the other hand, he has a fairly good statistical chance of being town, based on the last two games, though in the second we have only his word to go on that he is scum). It would be unwise to use the statistical chance as an ironclad argument here, though, because outliers do happen.

I agree with mpolo on the setup. I don’t agree with jimbobmacdoodle’s statistical chance of being town but this has been discussed by others already.

Snark’s groupings here my first thought is that maybe he has a reason for grouping players because of his power (maybe an investigative power?). I am in Team Grape, along with all the replacements.

freezeblade wrote:I am very much on record with the opinion of "D1 suuuuucks"

Unless someone does something super scummy, we're all groping around in the dark.

freezeblade wrote:To be entirely fair, I'm always pretty thin on D1, because, well, I hate them.

You may read it as scummy because, well, I've had the previous 9 games or so as scum.

These statements are consistent with others made by freezeblade in recent games. He doesn’t like D1, and has used it as an excuse for light D1 posting. And I went after him for it pretty strongly in Draculafia. But I want to point out that in Draculafia (a very recent game) freezeblade was town so his above statement that he’s been scum in his nine previous games isn’t true. He seems anxious to set up a mindset of “freezeblade always looks scummy on D1 because we’re used to seeing him as scum” as an excuse for scummy behavior. Or maybe he was just trying to implant in everyone’s minds statistical unlikelihood that it would be would be scum ten games in a row. My initial read on him is leaning scum.

Lawrencelot wrote:So I feel kind of detached from this game for two reasons: 1) there hasn't really been any interaction with my predecessor and 2) I haven't submitted a role myself. This makes the game a bit less fun than I expected it to be but I hope it will improve over time. Of course this is two-sided: if I put more effort into the game there would be more interaction. Now moody is the only one who said something about me. And Misnomer puts me on an unreasonable high position on his town list.

Now that I’m doing my initial read, I’m feeling a little like this myself. I’ll try to come up with some questions for you (and everyone else) later tonight.

Lawrencelot wrote:I replaced patzer. And you still haven't answered my question. It's starting to look like it's deliberate.

Hey I’m Patzer!

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm still trying to figure out the best strategy for helping me tune my scumdar, especially given that this is my first town game.

Hmm. :roll:

This covers my initial impressions on D1 content only. I should be able to finish my read tonight.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Echo244 » Thu Jan 07, 2016 5:06 pm UTC

Just a quick post - work has been stupidly busy, I've just managed to read through D1, I'll read through the much shorter D2 from home. Initial thoughts that I'm posting now while I have my notebook:

jimbob - reasonable but safe arguments, generally neutral.
Snark - Don't like that grouping thing he tried, good way to post walls of text while overlooking things. leaning scummy
mpolo - Generally sensible contributions, leaning town.
Lawrencelot - Not a lot to go on.
emlightened - Hmmmm. Something smells scummy. Suggesting things that don't pan out, like some teams that turn out to be two townies. Anti-lynching Madge.
patzer/Dje/bessie - Not a lot to go on.

The major point of data I'm looking at is the D1 votals.

For moody: Misnomer (T), crucialityfactor (T), emlightened (?), Madge (M)
For Madge: Snark (?), jimbob (?), mpolo (?), moody (T), Sabrar (T)

Because of how close that was, and the known scum vote on moody, I'm looking very hard at emlightened potentially trying to protect Madge. Sabrar's late vote was what pushed it onto Madge without random.org getting a say. Any mafia on Madge's bandwagon were bussing a scumbuddy when there were other, easier options, and bussing a scumbuddy for Town Points isn't worth it when you can hem and haw and keep them around and bus them another day.

So, so far (not reread D2 yet) I'm looking hard at emlightened. Possibly another scum or two among the other early voters who were not then around late-on to switch, to protect Madge when the deadline was close.

Right. Hopefully more later.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Echo244 » Thu Jan 07, 2016 5:11 pm UTC

Ninja'd by bessie - snap! D1 reads, more to come!

Also rolled my eyes a little at jimbob, his behaviour here as "Town" is exactly like his normal posting. But I can't read too much in to that... yet. I might later when I look at when he voted on D1, and when he was around to potentially unvote on Madge and tip the balance back moodywards.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Jan 07, 2016 5:47 pm UTC

Thank you mpolo. I'm going to assume you are being truthful, but it can't hurt to check:
If a player targeted SirGabriel last night with an investigation, would they have got a result on him, despite his lynched status?
My thinking is that if the mod contradicts what mpolo said, we have useful info.

In response to Bessie - those two posts were in response to Misnomer's request for an opinion on SirG's list and then the subsequent follow up, hence why I focused on him specifically at that point.

@Echo - Sabrar posted a full D1 vote timeline regarding moody, Madge and Misnomer votes. Hopefully that should save you some effort. I agree that we probably still have useful information to glean from those votes, given moody's flip, but am not going to have time for a big post from home until the weekend to analyse it myself. I don't remember my posting level approaching the lynch on D1, and am phone posting so can't easily check, but I was around.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Echo244 » Thu Jan 07, 2016 7:20 pm UTC

Quite right; your post saying you'd be away stuck in my mind, but a quick check shows you did pop up after the extension was granted, and voted Madge when she wasn't remotely close to lynch.

I'll try to reread D2 now. Might not get through it tonight, I'll try to finish from work tomorrow, then I'm up to date.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Echo244 » Thu Jan 07, 2016 8:34 pm UTC

OK, Snark's looking much better once he dropped that grouping thing, under which many things could have been hidden. And the D2 confused results claim was towny; I think only part of the results Snark gets are accurate, but we don't know which each day.

I trust SirG. Because obviously. I'd like to hear more from him. But his claim and use of the lynch to engage his powers makes D2 difficult to read from.

There's a comment from Sabrar (dead, Town) that the choice of D2 lynch is largely SirG (claimed town and powers FROM BEYOND THE GRAVE), a lurker, or someone who's already been poisoned (moody, now dead, Town). I think that's a fairly good summary; the more active posters look mostly towny.

Conclusion: Primary lynch candidate for me is emlightened. Other than that, many of the quieter players and those who've been replaced, as there's very little to go on. Yes, that includes me. Others are looking fairly towny. Recommend Snark or mpolo for a day cop power invented by SirG, or a Darryl the Drug Taking Dog power for greater coverage. I still don't fully trust jimbob, emlightened is a bad choice, as are the recent replacements (myself included) and Lawrencelot as there's too little to go on to trust them.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby emlightened » Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:35 am UTC

I've known that I've been looking pretty scummy since moody flipped town, and I was the only one not confirmed town voting for a town over scum. I don't think it helps anyone for a SK to get the power, and I'll think that mpolo is a SK until either he's dead and I'm proved wrong (or not), or mpolo gives a good explanation for who he found scummy on D1, and how/when his opinions changed; what he said isn't consistent back then, and I'm convinced that he made the results up. He might not be a SK, but it seems likely that he's that, or some sort of independent. I wouldn't give the power to him, at any rate (it would be even worse for us if he's survivor and it's a vigilante kill; instant scum win if we're at LYLO).

I'll have a re-read of the entire thread over the weekend. I think that jimbob's second question would tell us a lot if Suzaku contradicts mpolo. It's probably best to have a cop power submitted, as that would probably get us a solid lynch target for tonight, but a vigilante kill late in the day could be worth it if anyone is scummy enough, as it would get us away from LYLO to MYLO (if we're there).)

@echo244: What is Darryl the Drug Taking Dog? I couldn't find it on mafiascum.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Snark » Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:14 am UTC

Darryl was a character in Smalltown mafia that Misnomer ran recently.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Suzaku » Fri Jan 08, 2016 3:19 am UTC

If a player targeted SirGabriel last night with an investigation, would they have got a result on him, despite his lynched status?

SirGabriel was not removed from the game by the lynch, and was/is still a valid target for all actions.

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Further EBWOE:
Can a serial killer or mafia performing their factional kill perform a different action that night as well?

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Echo244 » Fri Jan 08, 2016 9:15 am UTC

emlightened wrote:@echo244: What is Darryl the Drug Taking Dog? I couldn't find it on mafiascum.


Yeah, sorry, that was a role in the recent Smalltown Werewolf Pick Your Poison game here. I assumed everyone would be familiar with it, I was wrong.

For clarity, Darryl's power was to investigate three people at once for their alignment, but his results, while accurate, were somewhat obfuscated by having the alignment names changed to random words, which would be different each night. So for example, investigating three people on night one would get the result "A is Engineer, B is Tennyson, C is Engineer", and all that would tell you is which players were co-aligned and which weren't - only the mod would know that Engineer meant Mafia and Tennyson meant Town. On subsequent nights, it would get worse because the words for "Town" and "Mafia" would be changed, so you'd e.g. get "D is Foxglove, E is Foxglove, F is Anteater" and couldn't relate alignments directly back to the first night's results.

It won't give us precise immediately undeniable intelligence, but it's the sort of broad brush power that might be very useful while not being so overpowered the mod will nerf it.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby mpolo » Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:06 am UTC

I just received a Day-Cop as a "Prezzie". I would propose using it on emlightened. Does anyone object to that?

As to my stance on Day 1, I was pretty early focussed on Madge and only did a vote change when it looked like the day was going to close. I then went right back to Madge. I'm not quite seeing where I was inconsistent, emlightened.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jan 08, 2016 11:34 am UTC

I agree that checking emlightened probably is a good idea. I'd have suggested using it on one of our replacements or Lawrencelot (i.e. our lurkers) later on in the day as an alternative (later on to provide enough time to make an informed decision), but given that we are already quite a way through this day, I don't think there'd be enough time to discuss the results.

@SirGabriel, could you please confirm that you gave a day cop to mpolo. (I have no idea why he'd lie, but it doesn't hurt to check).

Hopefully this goes without saying, but if mpolo comes back with a scum result, let's not rush straight into lynching the target though, and come to a conclusion whether we trust mpolo more than emlightened.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Echo244 » Fri Jan 08, 2016 12:33 pm UTC

Hmmmm. I'm not against using it on emlightened; she's my main lynch preference, and certainty on her, either way, is good. However, she's got plenty of posts we can read as well. The lurkers and replacements, however, we have no such data on. If we investigate a lurker/replacement, we get a solid result where we previously had almost nothing to go on, and can either lynch known scum, or lynch based off scum reads.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby SirGabriel » Fri Jan 08, 2016 1:21 pm UTC

Yes, I gave mpolo a day cop, and I have no objection to using it on emlightened.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby mpolo » Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:04 pm UTC

I have submitted it. I am supposed to get "Town" or "Anti-Town" as results, so we'll see what comes of that.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Lawrencelot » Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:34 pm UTC

Ok, to get back in the game, let's start with the known info. Anyone can read:
Spoiler:
Madge was mafia, lynched D1
crucialityfactor and misnomer were killed N1, both town
SirGabriel was lynched D2, Ghost
moody (town), Sabrar (town) and Minestrone (SK) were killed N2. Moody died of poison.

Madge could choose to let a player of her choice live if that player was killed.
crucialityfactor was immune to christmas-themed roles.
Misnomer did a random action each night.
SirGabriel can invent a 1-shot ability and give it to someone. Gave mpolo a 1-shot daycop.
Moody could redirect the actions of 1/4th of the players.
Sabrar would poison anyone who targeted them. Which means moody used his power N1, with Sabrar as one of the targets.
Minestrone could add a player to chat with and they could not use actions or be targeted by actions.

Jimbob claims to be the sole member of the boardgamer's chat.
mpolo claims to have watched SirGabriel.

Mpolo claims that Misnomer targeted crucialityfactor N1.
Moody was poisoned N1.
Snark investigated SirGabriel N1, got that they were Mr Potato Head and targeted cf N2 and that they were named Mr Potato Head.

Snark targeted Minestrone N2? serial killer


Actual thoughts coming later. For now, the only thing I have is that mpolo is probably town. Plus, I found this post interesting:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:This bit from Snark struck me though:
Snark wrote:moody especially seems townie in my eyes since they are poisoned, which seems more likely to be the work of anti-town
@Snark - Why do you think this is the case?

My first thoughts when seeing someone got poisoned is also that mafia did it, as vigilantes usually don't use such a weapon. That jimbob wrote this question makes it feel like he knew the poisoner was town, i.e. he knew his mafia teammates were not poisoners.

@Snark: could you summarize who you've targeted each night and what your results were? I'm a bit confused there. Also, you still haven't answered my question.

Also, just to be clear, I replaced Vytron, not patzer. Since patzer and Vytron got replaced at the same time and rereading Vytron gave me nothing, I was a bit confused there. I was also annoyed at this game, mainly because of Snark ignoring me multiple times, and didn't really focus.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Lawrencelot » Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:37 pm UTC

Oh and yeah investigating emlightened sounds good. Will you get a result today or tomorrow?

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby mpolo » Fri Jan 08, 2016 4:56 pm UTC

The result should come whenever the mod comes online. I.e. still today.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby bessie » Fri Jan 08, 2016 5:41 pm UTC

I’m still here. The situation with my roof leaking got worse yesterday. I will have something in about 12 hours.

Question for anyone: did moody claim who he swapped on N1? It looks like he swapped Snark with someone but I don’t see any other claims.

For the record, I have no night results to claim. So one of the following: I didn’t have a night action, I didn’t submit a night action, or I don’t have a result to share.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri Jan 08, 2016 8:53 pm UTC

Lawrencelot wrote:Plus, I found this post interesting:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:This bit from Snark struck me though:
Snark wrote:moody especially seems townie in my eyes since they are poisoned, which seems more likely to be the work of anti-town
@Snark - Why do you think this is the case?
My first thoughts when seeing someone got poisoned is also that mafia did it, as vigilantes usually don't use such a weapon. That jimbob wrote this question makes it feel like he knew the poisoner was town, i.e. he knew his mafia teammates were not poisoners.
It was my belief that poisoning would have been a player submitted ability, and unlikely to be a faction ability (as said earlier I only expect standard factions, given the likely craziness of player roles, and poisoning is not a standard faction ability). Hence, it was vaguely suspicious to me that someone would instantly assume that it was from anti-town, since it could have been the work of a player of any alignment. I wanted to know why Snark had made the assumption. Moody was under suspicion from players during D1, so I could have seen someone using a vig-like ability on him.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby bessie » Sat Jan 09, 2016 7:06 am UTC

Some more impressions starting with D2. I’m still only commenting on live players until I’m caught up.

mpolo was the first to claim a night result.

Snark wrote:Super town points to everyone voting for Madge: Snark, jimbobmacdoodle, mpolo, moody7277, Sabrar

That was a very close lynch, and mafia could have easily pushed it to moody so I trust mostly or all town to have been voting for Madge. moody especially seems townie in my eyes since they are poisoned, which seems more likely to be the work of anti-town.

Snark was quick to assign super townie points to the Madge voters, including (conveniently) himself. And moody was second in the D1 votes so was possible he was poisoned by town.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:A few thoughts why scum might not have pushed for moody more towards day end (any or all of these could be true):
1) moody is scum as well. This would of course mean that scum would almost certainly end up on one of those two wagons.
2) scum have some kind of voting restrictions.
3) scum are fractured between multiple factions.
4) scum were happy with how the votes were approaching the original deadline but got caught out by the fairly quick swing in voting to Madge.
Of course, the bussing option as noted by Minestrone is also a fairly good possibility, but I can't believe that they decided this from the outset and more likely they pushed it later on, therefore I give significant town points to Snark for voting Madge first.

You give town points to Snark for being first on the Madge wagon. Why when scum!Snark could be possible in all four of your above points and you also state that Minestrone’s bussing option is possible? You also seem quick to want to assign townie points.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Regarding mpolo and his claim, I'm inclined to believe it for now, but would suggest that he might be a good investigation target for someone, so we can find out whether we can trust his claims. Of course, he'll be high on the scum hit list, I imagine at this point, since a watcher is a good way of finding scum or confirming investigations.

I don’t necessarily agree that mpolo is a night kill target just because he claimed a watcher power. A watcher can be dangerous to scum, but my guess is that every role is a power role, and may be dangerous to scum too. Are you trying to discourage claiming?

Snark wrote:
Snark wrote:N1 I investigated SirGabriel, got that they were Mr Potato Head TOWN and targeted cf last night and that they were named Mr Potato Head.

EBWOP

Also, I did already plan on continuing to share my results.

Snark wrote:Using redirection N1 or at all is good enough reason for a vote when I don't know what else to do. Making me claim for no freaking reason.

If your results hadn’t been redirected and didn’t contradict public information, were you planning on sharing them anyway? When did you plan on sharing your results?

emlightened wrote:@ninja: I believe that part of jimbob's suspicion of me is my lack of content, hopefully this fixes that?

This pings me slightly. As if she only posted because she’s under suspicion.

mpolo wrote:At this point the argument against freezeblade is mostly lurkage.

I don’t have time to check this myself, because I don’t have time to analyze dead players and votes tonight. I just want to make note of this comment so I remember it tomorrow. Because I have a non-town read on freezeblade based on D1 content.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:My night result says that only two kills were attempted last night. I'm presuming therefore that the scum team killed Minestrone and Minestrone killed Sabrar. However, Minestrone also claimed in chat that he was planning on recruiting Sabrar last night. I can't see a good reason for him to both recruit and kill the same player. He might have lied about who he was going to recruit, but I don't see why. Or, I guess he could have been redirected by moody or someone else.

Question for jimbobmacdoodle: Did Minestrone know your power?

Almost made it to the end but I'm out of time. I will finish catching up and start posting my player analysis tomorrow.

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby mpolo » Sat Jan 09, 2016 4:42 pm UTC

I got a result from the Mod. Emlightened is town.

Or she's a godfather, I suppose.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Echo244 » Sat Jan 09, 2016 5:52 pm UTC

Well, I wasn't expecting that.

So, we now have:

SirG: Dead, haunting us, Town.
emlightened: mpolo says investigates as Town. I... trust that, for now.

Snark, mpolo, jimbob: This bunch have been chatty since the start. Plenty to read from, particularly with jimbob, and aside from Snark's grouping thing which smelt like a great big cloud of smoke, have seemed fairly towny and helpful. And yes, I know I'm grouping people here, but this time it's not arbitrary, so nyuh.

Lawrencelot, bessie, Me: Very little data to go on, a good chance that at least one of these lurkers is mafia and there's no way to tell right now.

So... 14 to start with. 4-5 scum? We know of one Serial Killer, and one Mafia, who are both dead. 2-3 left. My gut says one among the lurkers, one among the more helpful posters and I'm not good enough to read them, potentially one more from either group but more likely the lurkers. No evidence to base this on, really, except there must be a mafia amongst the more active posters, otherwise scum wouldn't keep having night kills.

The alternative is mpolo lying to protect emlightened as a scumbuddy. Which I don't give much credence to right now, but will be looking back at.

While we're talking results, it's worth mentioning that freezeblade submitted no night actions, nor did he gain solid information through any passive means.
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby bessie » Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:45 am UTC

I realized that I should have been commenting on SirGabriel in my posts too because he’s not really dead, he’s more like permanently vote-blocked, and he’s still technically eligible for the lynch. I’m trying to get my brain around the setup, so I made this summary of claims and day/night actions. Please let me know if I made any mistakes. I treated all player claims as truthful for the purposes of this summary.

Spoiler:
crucialityfactor – Town, The Easter Bunny (power: immunity), killed N1. N1 watched by mpolo, killed by Misnomer (the only player to visit him).

emlightened – No name or role claim. N1, N2, N3 no claims made. D3 copped by mpolo (result: town).

freezeblade/Echo244 – No name or role claim. N1, N2, N3 submitted no night actions and gained no information passively.

jimbobmacdoodle – No name claim (power: investigative). N1 recruited/jailed by Minestrone, gained Boardgamers’ chat. N2 used investigative power (result: only two kills were attempted).

Madge – Mafia (power: factional kill), The Grim Reaper (power: protection), lynched D1.

Minestrone – Serial Killer (power: night kill), Ian Board Game Enthusiast (power: Boardgamers’ chat recruiter/jailkeeper), killed N2. N1 recruited/jailed jimbobmacdoodle, did not use night kill (no evidence of kill). N2 killed (more likely) or recruited (less likely) Sabrar, poisoned by Sabrar (would have died from poison on N3), was (probably) killed by mafia. Unknown if they could use both powers each night (“no comment” from mod).

Misnomer – Town, Tracer Bullet (power: multiple one-shots), killed N1. N1 killed crucialityfactor (was the only player to visit him), was (probably) killed by mafia.

moody7277 – Town, Game Breaker (power: chaotic redirector), died N2. N1 redirected Snark, DJ, Sabrar, possible 4th target (no evidence), was poisoned by Sabrar. N2 died by poison, probably did not use his power (no evidence of redirects).

mpolo – No name claim (power: clumsy watcher). N1 watched crucialityfactor (result: visited by Misnomer only). N2 watched SirGabriel (result: no visitors). D3 received a day-cop from SirGabriel, targeted emlightened (result: town).

patzer/Djehutynakht/bessie – No name or role claim. N1 nothing to claim, was redirected by moody. N2, N3 nothing to claim.

Sabrar – Town, Paranoid Candy Cane Owner (power: poisoner), killed N2. N1 poisoned moody (targeted by moody). N2 poisoned Minestrone, was killed by Minestrone.

SirGabriel – Town, Ghost of Christmas Presents (power: Inventor/gifter). N1 did not use an action. D2 permanently vote-blocked by lynch, which triggered his power. N2 was watched by mpolo. D3 gave one shot day cop to mpolo.

Snark – No name claim (power: alignment/name cop, tracker, unreliable?). N1 targeted SirGabriel (result: Town, Mr Potato Head, and targeted crucialityfactor), redirected by moody from SirGabriel (evidence suggests to Misnomer). N2 targeted Minestrone (result: Serial Killer, Admiral William Adama, and targeted Sabrar).

Vytron/Lawrencelot – No name or role claim. N1, N2, N3 no claims made.

Mod, when is the deadline?

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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby Snark » Sun Jan 10, 2016 12:49 pm UTC

I'm really not sure of what to do from here. SirGab is confirmed town, right? Wanna lead the lynch?
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Re: 2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku - D3 - The dead, not?!

Postby SirGabriel » Sun Jan 10, 2016 1:20 pm UTC

Snark wrote:I'm really not sure of what to do from here. SirGab is confirmed town, right? Wanna lead the lynch?

Yes, I am confirmed town. No, I don't really want to lead the lynch, but if I did it would either be for Echo (not because of anything Echo said or did, but because of how freezeblade played) or Snark.

Echo, did you have nothing to report because freezeblade never bothered submitting his night action or because he had no night action to submit?


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