Crossover Mafia | N4 | 10/19

For your simulated organized crime needs.

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BoomFrog
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/10

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:58 pm UTC

Madge wrote: Super useful claim table.

Please add EGW's extra info that I quoted above.

Does anyone have a guess what "possessor" does? Does OS ever use alignment changing roles? If not, I'm guessing it's a delayed redirect, like choose a player, the next night you can choose what power they use and on who. That could explain the two interfered with results N2 if YOLO allowed scummates to direct Samuses's actions.
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:59 pm UTC

Also: @madge don't edit, even your claim table. EBWOP like the rest of us peasants.
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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Sabrar » Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:00 pm UTC

It's Professor, not possessor.

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Sabrar » Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:01 pm UTC

EBWOP: no it's not. Misremembered it completely.

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plytho
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby plytho » Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:03 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Also: @madge don't edit, even your claim table. EBWOP like the rest of us peasants.
I read that as Madge ninja+editing and ebwopping her realisation she missed something in the ninja edit.
he him his

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/10

Postby Sabrar » Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:12 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:If not, I'm guessing it's a delayed redirect, like choose a player, the next night you can choose what power they use and on who. That could explain the two interfered with results N2 if YOLO allowed scummates to direct Samuses's actions.

How? Nobody claims to have been jailed so that would require blocking me AND interfering with you with a single ability. Please explain what you have in mind.

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BoomFrog
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Oct 12, 2017 4:46 pm UTC

Let's say Samus "possessed" me N1 then roleblocked you N2. N2 is use watcher and my target is changed to someone Samus choose. So possession is essentially a delayed redirect. It's not a very satisfying answer but it's plausible. The alternative is that EGW lied completely, but I seriously doubt that since he would have to have used barrier N2 and N1, and I believe he used it N1.

Most likely is some sort of scum redirect, possibly from Samus but possibly from someone lying about what power they have. Either way I think this is a strong townie point for mpolo as mafia likely wouldn't have a bus driver and a redirect.
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LaserGuy
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:10 pm UTC

Here's my stream of consciousness thoughts on claims:

RR: Claim seems pretty solid. I can imagine ways that scum could fake a claim like this, but it is somewhat nontrivial or slightly bastardy. Usage is plausible (I would have used it N0 to leave a crumb, and wouldn't have targeted FF, but I can see why RR might have) and confirmable. Having a doctor whose targets can confirm him feels pretty powerful to me especially when many of the townie powers are actually weaker variants of standard roles, and having both mpolo's power and RR's power on townside is potentially extremely strong. If RR is town, scum does not have complete knowledge of the setup. Contradiction with BoomFrog's claim, though the problem appears to be on Boom's side as RR's action is verified.

BoomFrog: Watcher is a tricky claim to fake. I have a hard time believing that scum!Boom would attempt this so early in the claim order, and that he would deliberately create a contradiction between his own claim and RR's if this were a fake claim. If both are scum, I suppose this could be a planned bus. Possible that Boom was roleblocked. Need to think about the scenarios here a bit more.

FrozenFlame: Claim is essentially impossible to verify. I would think that having a power like this would be an excuse for FF to play more aggressively and try to draw the NK. Doesn't really improve my opinion of FF.

Madge: I don't really want to activate her as her powers are quite dangerous in the hands of scum. Sabrar claims he jailed her, but Madge apparently never received the message. Some odd inconsistencies in her claims about whether or not her role says Tree Stump. On balance, I'd be tempted to guess this is more likely to be a scum power as Town!Znirk already had a similar power that didn't have such an arduous activation requirement.

plytho: I can confirm his claims, so no surprises here. As I noted on D3, I find his usage of this power to be, on balance, fairly scummy. I personally would definitely have been trying to get votes to activate this power right from the start of the game, and his initial reluctance to do so is really weird, and I am skeptical of his reasoning around it. I would normally associate this power with Town, but the way plytho has played it struck me as off.

mpolo: Not much to say here since he claimed already and has to all appearances been using his power in a very townie way.

Sabrar: Claim looks fine. Odd inconsistency in that Madge did not receive notification that she was jailed by Sabrar on N2.

EGW: Noting that EGW has a roleblock that he claims he hasn't used.

bessie: Poor bessie :(

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LaserGuy
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/10

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:42 pm UTC

plytho wrote:This was my town to scum before Zen's flip:

I've done a Sabrar like analysis and from that it seems I'm pretty close to town consensus.

Spoiler:
This includes an interpretation of jimbob's reads that weren't ordered, mpolo reads that were grouped and excludes EGW's reads that were heavily influenced by his case on Sabrar and I didn't consider valid anymore. I also removed everyone's auto townread on themselves.

Bessie 2.9
Evil George Washington 4.0
Sabrar 4.0
#HBC | Zyth 6.1
Madge 6.6
plytho 7.0
LaserGuy (DH) 7.0
mpolo 7.3
BoomFrog 8.0
Frozenflame 8.9
Red Ryu 9.3


My feeling right now is that we're (I am) probably wrong about 1 person in the scummy group and 1 person in the middle group.

If anyone wants more stats from this, let me know.


@plytho, what did you use for FrozenFlame's reads in this analysis?

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plytho
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby plytho » Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:51 pm UTC

he him his

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Sabrar » Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:08 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:On balance, I'd be tempted to guess this is more likely to be a scum power as Town!Znirk already had a similar power that didn't have such an arduous activation requirement.
How do you know how Znirk's power worked?

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LaserGuy
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:21 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
LaserGuy wrote:On balance, I'd be tempted to guess this is more likely to be a scum power as Town!Znirk already had a similar power that didn't have such an arduous activation requirement.
How do you know how Znirk's power worked?


I read his flip.
Znirk, Snake (Metal Gear), Town Unwilling Voteblocker

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Sabrar » Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:46 am UTC

Not what I asked. How do you know that Znirk's ability did not have 'such an arduous activation requirement'?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby bessie » Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:53 am UTC

bessie wrote:Madge, please confirm that you need N/2 votes to activate each power separately (three times), and not N/2 votes once to activate all three powers.
Madge wrote: :shock: my role PM is ambiguous about this! I am asking for clarification.\
:shock: Why am I again not surprised that you claim to have misunderstood your role pm? And I am even more suspicious because of the power itself that you claim should have prompted you that you possibly misunderstood how to activate it.

Sabrar wrote:And now we wait for Madge's famous analysis. :D
Madge wrote:Come on my claim ranking from before was not enough? For real though I'm busy the rest of the day, basically all day tomorrow and Saturday morning. You're looking at 48 hours before you hear from me again (I may make another post in about 14 hours but that'll be it for another 24).
Sabrar keeps giving you every opportunity…

FrozenFlame wrote: Bessie's claim is super bizarre. Not sure if it's too gameflow altering to be a scum role. Maybe it's JUST play aroundable to be one considering it allegedly notifies us all at the start of the day phase after its used. Just forces us to be sure before we toss a vote. Hmmmmm....
If I use my power, the mod will announce it at the start of day. I confirmed with the mod.

BoomFrog wrote:Why did you not use telepathy on PW to establish a hidden signal he can use to tell you his cop result(s)?
Why did you not watch Peaceful Whale since it seems it was soooo obvious to everyone he was a cop?

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LaserGuy
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Oct 13, 2017 4:45 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:Not what I asked. How do you know that Znirk's ability did not have 'such an arduous activation requirement'?


Educated guess. I read the role and figured it was probably similar to mine--two unrelated powers. Even if it isn't, the odds of it having a harder activation than Madge's are pretty slim since I have a hard time even envisioning what such a thing would look like. Madge's power is ridiculously hard to activate for town!Madge since it basically requires the cooperation of scum. And for all that, it's kind of weak and negative utility.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/10

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:42 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Why did you not use telepathy on PW to establish a hidden signal he can use to tell you his cop result(s)?


It works only one way.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:44 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:@EGW: Why did you claim untargetable N1? It made you a huge target for no reason.


I explained this already.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Oct 13, 2017 8:56 am UTC

I think it's between Boom and Ryu today. Watcher is hard to fake, and it's risky to fake results which condemn Ryu. Ryu's last EOD was suspicious. He misrepresented my play towards Zen. Spak was our one shot protective. I don't see how Doctor + 1-shot Jail makes sense balance wise. I also think it's weird Madge hasn't received Sabrar's Jail.

I lean towards Ryu. I think his role allows him to write mod-messages, which would make sense with Boom's result. He goes today.

Top 3: [Ryu > Frozen > Madge]

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/10

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:00 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Does OS ever use alignment changing roles?


He has. He has used a Yak. In fact that role was used on July in Time Travellers. What happened was it was used on a power player N0 (July, my previous GF) and she flipped at night. Then everyone was like "I KNEW IT!" When she has only recently turned. She was vigilante killed.

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Sabrar » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:11 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:I lean towards Ryu. I think his role allows him to write mod-messages, which would make sense with Boom's result.
I haven't thought of that possibility but I like the explanation. Wouldn't it be considered bastard though?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:20 am UTC

I don't know. All I do know is that Red Ryu refused to wagon Frozen Yesterday, and acted weird. I feel the messages are sent to people to ensure he clears himself rather then protecting that player. I can see it as possible that Ryu is a misleading role, like Framer. The mod didn't confirm alignment, he just stated that Dr. Mario protected me. His read on Frozen is weak.

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plytho
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby plytho » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:25 am UTC

Do you think Red and Frozen are buddies?
he him his

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:26 am UTC

Yes I do.

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plytho
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby plytho » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:29 am UTC

Do you think Red would have sent a protection message to his buddy N1 instead of a townie?
he him his

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:35 am UTC

I think there was no other option that he could list today that would be a viable protection. Note that he protected Frozen, who pushed for Jim, the counter wagon to Scum!Moody. I see what you are trying to get at with that question.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby plytho » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:40 am UTC

What do you think I'm trying to get at?
he him his

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:48 am UTC

You are getting at the point Scum!Ryu would have targeted a non-buddy to make his claim that much more believable. Thing is that would require him to have saved someone possibly and saying that he protected someone else besides Scum!Frozen that isn't [Me/Sabrar] is risky for him, because he'd have to consider the fake protect along with who his scum team are deciding to kill.

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Evil George Washington
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:58 am UTC

Red Ryu, I want you to explain your EOD to me from D3.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:04 am UTC

I'm going to sleep. Sabrar, who's your top 3?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby plytho » Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:09 am UTC

I'm having some trouble parsing that.

I was thinking, if they are buddies, Frozen might be confirming Red's claim while Red didn't actually send him a message but did something else instead?
What I was getting at was that if he lied about targeting Frozen or the messages being revealed on flip we can check that by lynching Frozen and keeping our doc-claim alive.

But I'm realizing that doesn't make a lot of sense. Since we're expecting a message confirmed every night now. Doing 'something else' instead of sending a message would be easily noticed. Also, clearly nobody else has received a message from Red Ryu N1 (or he's lying about them being revealed on flip). And I kind of expect him to send messages every night.

Why is targeting someone that isn't [you/Sabrar/scumbud] N1 risky? And why didn't he target you or Sabrar then?
he him his

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Sabrar » Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:16 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:I'm going to sleep. Sabrar, who's your top 3?
Starts with FF > Ryu, waiting on a mod-reply which could make a difference in the third.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:42 am UTC

Since he should be targetting people that seem townie like me/sabrar/maven (who is dead). He wouldn't protect Boom since he scumread him. Frozen didn't seem townie at all. Ryu could have either withheld while his scum buddy confirms for him or he could have sent a kill instead of the supposed 'protection'. There is still the balance issue, and there is still the Boom VS Ryu issue.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:43 am UTC

Plytho, what is your top 3? Thoughts on Boom vs Ryu? What do you think of Boom's Watcher claim?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:49 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@EGW: do you think there is a world where scum!Ryu refuses to switch to town!FF?


In a world where he wants Town!Frozen alive to confirm Scum!Ryu's message. (This just came to me)

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Sabrar
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Sabrar » Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:51 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:There is still the balance issue
Is a single-shot Jailer enough protection in a 20 player game?

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Sabrar » Fri Oct 13, 2017 10:52 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@EGW: do you think there is a world where scum!Ryu refuses to switch to town!FF?

In a world where he wants Town!Frozen alive to confirm Scum!Ryu's message. (This just came to me)
But from your pov he would have Town!EGW also confirming that.

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Evil George Washington » Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:02 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Evil George Washington wrote:There is still the balance issue
Is a single-shot Jailer enough protection in a 20 player game?


I can protect myself. There's a one shot jail. So two shots of protection/commuting. There is a re-director, which is sort of like a detached bodyguard. Then you add a doctor that gives CONFIRMATION of his protect alongside all that? Usually OS likes to make roles that have a catch to go with them. For example, PW was a one-use Mason Cop. Pretty powerful, and makes sense to have that as one shot. Then there is Frozen's role which is a deflector that deflects a kill to his target if he is targetted with a lethal action.

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plytho
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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby plytho » Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:03 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@EGW: do you think there is a world where scum!Ryu refuses to switch to town!FF?


In a world where he wants Town!Frozen alive to confirm Scum!Ryu's message. (This just came to me)

According to his claim his messages are also confirmed on flip.
he him his

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby plytho » Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:06 am UTC

Top three is still Red Ryu, Frozen and BoomFrog.

Red Ryu vs BoomFrog

Red Ryu claimed he targeted EGW with his protection N2 and left a note, EGW confirmed the note.
BoomFrog claimed he watched EGW N2 and saw nobody visit.

Possible scenarios:
Both are telling the truth, BoomFrog was roleblocked. It couldn’t have been mpolo because Red’s note arrived. This means Sabrar’s jail failing looks suspicious.
BoomFrog is lying: BoomFrog tried to discredit Red Ryu with his claim, not taking account the notes.
Red Ryu is lying: he didn’t visit EGW, this means EGW is lying too.

Sabrar vs Madge:
Sabrar claims he jailed Madge N2 and Madge should be informed, Madge claims she wasn’t informed

Possible scenarios:
Both are telling the truth, Sabrar was roleblocked. It couldn’t have been mpolo or someone else would have received the ‘jailed’ notice. (very low probability: mpolo’s targets N2 haven’t been confirmed, so if mpolo is scum and switched a buddy with Madge this could have been his doing)
Sabrar is lying: this would be weird, there’s been no counterclaim on megaman. And I wouldn’t expect scum!Sabrar to start pushing Madge here.
Madge is lying: she is actually jailed and was informed of that but is hoping to discredit Sabar?


Red Ryu’s messaging doctor: his messages are confirmed by three people. So I’m not doubting that part of his claim. But whether or not he can actually protect people is a different story. Like mpolo already said: it would be pretty bastard to have a mod message saying people were protected when they weren’t. But for all we know Red Ryu only has a messaging ability and decided on the doctor line? It’s easy to pick people that survive if you’re scum. I haven’t played a game without a doctor though so a lack of counter claim gives Red some townie points. I’m inclined to believe Red’s claim at this point.

BoomFrog’s vindicator/watcher: Like LaserGuy said, scum claiming watcher is pretty bold when you’re the second claimer. Challenging Red Ryu’s claim is also bold. It is convenient though that he only needed to be right two nights and can’t be tested anymore.
he him his

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Re: Crossover Mafia | D4 | 10/16

Postby Sabrar » Fri Oct 13, 2017 11:07 am UTC

Evil George Washington wrote:I can protect myself. There's a one shot jail. So two shots of protection/commuting. There is a re-director, which is sort of like a detached bodyguard. Then you add a doctor that gives CONFIRMATION of his protect alongside all that? Usually OS likes to make roles that have a catch to go with them. For example, PW was a one-use Mason Cop. Pretty powerful, and makes sense to have that as one shot. Then there is Frozen's role which is a deflector that deflects a kill to his target if he is targetted with a lethal action.
You're now bringing up Frozen's role as Town in your argument? Don't you have him a scum? Otherwise I can see your point.


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