Thoughts for ships

[Sableagle]

I think you have to be on their side to get on that.

[addams]

I think you have to be on their side to get on that.

Or...Ya' know,...
Marry into the Family.

[somitomi]

It's Towel Day again and I didn't have anywhere to go, thus missing the chance to carry a towel with me again.

[Quercus]

I’m just doing what I consider to be a responsibility. I know people who complain about the system, but they don’t vote.

For people on the left who do this I think I'm going to try (metaphorically) slapping them upside the head with Noam Chomsky's 8 point brief for lesser evil voting. It's specifically about the Trump-Clinton election, but while Trump is still in office its general lessons are obvious.

[Sableagle]

Years ago, a motorcycle crash smashed up my left shoulder and the Army wrecked my knees and left elbow. It was 8 months before I could walk up stairs without using the handrail or swearing. My knees have hurt ever since. Badminton, orienteering, hill-walking, hiking, backpacking, dinghy sailing, swimming, cycling, rock-climbing, SCUBA diving? Yeah, all those things became less fun to varying degrees. I carried on with the hiking, because it was that or rest my head on a tannerite pillow and leave a coin on a note saying "Sorry about the mess," but enjoyed it less due to the OW! factor.
Last week, they started hurting more, and my left elbow is hurting a lot again. Strenuous things like zipping up a jacket, towelling my right arm dry after a shower, tying my shoelaces, pulling a glove onto my right hand, scratching an itch on my eyebrow, holding a bowl of cereal and so on all hurt. If I take painkillers, they'll just stop my knowing when I'm making it even worse, and anyway I don't want to be a painkiller addict ... or an alcoholic, even if it does hurt more when I'm sober. Went to the doctors' place and got an appointment ... two weeks away, then work told em I couldn't have that day off. I'm going to the hospital.

Fleeting thought:

OW, DAMMIT!

[addams]

well...?
You must be back from Hospital.

[Sableagle]

I won't spoil all your appetites with the full list of possible side-effects of my new prescription. I'll just pick out the "stroke" and "myocardial infarction" highlights. She doesn't think I should be working there. I agree. Shame there's nothing else available that isn't worse and doesn't require a first-class honours degree and three years' experience. Have another week to wait for my own doc to eventually see me and get me sent for blood tests and imaging and whatever else ... if, y'know, I don't have a stroke or a myocardial infarction in that time.

[addams]

oh,...well....
On the Up side, the side effects can usually be mitigated by a different pill.

tisk-tisk...Sableagle;
Reading the eight page cautionary pamphlet only adds worry.

I have a Random Thought:
We, humans, perceive Time logarithmically.
https://youtu.be/hHG8io5qIU8

Sooo....

Spoiler:

If life in prison is the reward for treason,
It is, finely, worth the risk when a man is old, like Trump?

(In the U.S. people are talking about how a Rich Man can't get Justice.)

[Sableagle]

Yeah, and the side-effects of that other pill can be mitigated with two more, and the side-effects of them can be mitgated with surgery and strict diet control and then as long as you avoid alcohol and you have someone to do all the physical stuff for you and remind you to eat every 3 hours and take all your pills and plenty of friends to pay for the electric wheelchair you now need ...

Friend of mine has it worse. Herniated discs in the neck, confused doctors, side-effects, complications, ...

[addams]

We live in amazing Times.
Jane had her spine replaced.

ech...She's lost mobility.
Yet, without it, she'd have died.

Artificial knees and repaired shoulders are common, here.
Two new knee people walk in less than one week.

Do you need new knees or a repaired shoulder?
Both? Both is Good. Cyborg living is in high style.

[Giant Speck]

Tropical Depression Alberto has me scratching my head. Yes, you read that right. Tropical Depression Alberto. The Weather Prediction Center "upgraded" Alberto from a subtropical depression to a full-fledged tropical depression while the cyclone was located over northern Tennessee, several hundred miles from the nearest ocean.

The storm has a more organized appearance on satellite imagery over frickin' Indiana than it did over the Gulf of Mexico!

What even are you, Alberto?

[addams]

Thank you.
Great Photo!

Do you have a link for us?
I lost access to the Navy satellite.

oh! Alberto IS one of a kind!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... 8c182368d0

It’s rare but not unprecedented to have a tropical storm or tropical depression tracking over Tennessee, Kentucky and into Indiana. The map below shows tracks of 11 other known storms that did the same thing. Of those, four made landfall at less than hurricane intensity — like Alberto.

What makes Alberto special is that none of the other storms occurred before June 1. In that regard, Albert is a first.

[ucim]

It strikes me that "global warming" is a bit of a misnomer. The important thing may not be temperature, but atmospheric energy, because it's that energy that gives rise to storms. (Yes, it's thermal energy, but I'm not sure that's the important part.)

How much energy is in "one more" hurricane? (in megatons, which is what people can relate to)
What is the difference in energy between a cat4 and a cat5 hurricane?
How much energy is there in one (extra) degree of earth's atmosphere?

I'm certain that the answers to these questions would be more meaningful than thinking of earth being four degrees warmer.

Jose

[flicky1991]

It strikes me that "global warming" is a bit of a misnomer.

Isn't that why the term "climate change" was coined to replace it?

[Sableagle]

I've taken to describing it as an iron bathtub full of rocks and water on an Aga range cooker. If you turn the heat up, it's going to go "BLEUP!" more often and possibly in new places.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D7.html

It turns out that the vast majority of the heat released in the condensation process is used to cause rising motions in the thunderstorms and only a small portion drives the storm's horizontal winds.

Method 1) - Total energy released through cloud/rain formation:

An average hurricane produces 1.5 cm/day (0.6 inches/day) of rain inside a circle of radius 665 km (360 n.mi) (Gray 1981). (More rain falls in the inner portion of hurricane around the eyewall, less in the outer rainbands.) Converting this to a volume of rain gives 2.1 x 10¹⁶ cm³/day. A cubic cm of rain weighs 1 gm. Using the latent heat of condensation, this amount of rain produced gives
5.2 x 10¹⁹ Joules/day or
6.0 x 10¹⁴Watts.

This is equivalent to 200 times the world-wide electrical generating capacity - an incredible amount of energy produced!

Method 2) - Total kinetic energy (wind energy) generated:

For a mature hurricane, the amount of kinetic energy generated is equal to that being dissipated due to friction. The dissipation rate per unit area is air density times the drag coefficient times the windspeed cubed (See Emanuel 1999 for details). One could either integrate a typical wind profile over a range of radii from the hurricane's center to the outer radius encompassing the storm, or assume an average windspeed for the inner core of the hurricane. Doing the latter and using 40 m/s (90 mph) winds on a scale of radius 60 km (40 n.mi.), one gets a wind dissipation rate (wind generation rate) of
1.3 x 10¹⁷ Joules/day or
1.5 x 10¹²Watts.

This is equivalent to about half the world-wide electrical generating capacity - also an amazing amount of energy being produced!

Either method is an enormous amount energy being generated by hurricanes. However, one can see that the amount of energy released in a hurricane (by creating clouds/rain) that actually goes to maintaining the hurricane's spiraling winds is a huge ratio of 400 to 1.

http://time.com/4946730/hurricane-categories/

In a Category 1 hurricane, winds range from 74 to 95 mph.
Winds range between 96 and 110 mph during a Category 2 hurricane.
In a Category 3 hurricane, winds range from 111 to 129 mph.
During a Category 4 hurricane, winds range from 130 to 156 mph.
In a Category 5 hurricane, the highest category hurricane, winds are 157 mph or higher.

There is no such thing as a Category 6 hurricane. When Hurricane Irma was headed toward the coast of southern Florida in August, it had maximum wind speeds of 185 mph, according to the New York Times. But the Saffir-Simpson scale only goes up to 5.

Some people have been talking about creating a Category 6 hurricane designation, but a Category 5 already means near total destruction. So while there is a measurement difference between 157 mph winds and 200 mph winds, there may not be much practical difference in terms of destructive force between a Category 5 hurricane and what might be labeled as a Category 6 hurricane.

That last part implies we're looking at hurricanes with more than twice that article's 90 mph windspeed. Doubling the velocity quadruples the energy.

Alternatively, we could look at the water: https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/ ... visualized



10¹⁴litres of water over 6 days. That's 1.7 * 10¹⁶ cm³/day. That's less than their quoted number for an average hurricane above, but it's just two states, not the whole amount. I'm having trouble finding things to compare.

The other things you asked was how much energy is in +1°C.

According to the American National Center for Atmospheric Research, "The total mean mass of the atmosphere is 5.1480×10¹⁸ kg with an annual range due to water vapor of 1.2 or 1.5×10¹⁵ kg

The specific heat of air is about 1158 J/(kg*C) while the specific heat of seawater is about 3850 J/(kg*C). ... In other words, it takes about 5.95 x 10²¹ Joules to raise the temperature of the atmosphere one degree Celsius.

That's a little over 100 days of average hurricane, then. How long's hurricane season supposed to be?

[ucim]

... and 1 megaton is equal to 4.184 x 10¹⁵ joule. So, we're looking at a million megatons per degree C (I wonder where all this extra energy will go), and between a hundred and ten thousand megatons per average storm. So, one degree C could (theoretically) produce up to ten thousand extra hurricanes (over the time it takes for the atmosphere to rise one degree C). Or, as little as a hundred, depending on which model is used.

Gives one a bit more pause than "one degree warmer".

It strikes me that "global warming" is a bit of a misnomer.

Isn't that why the term "climate change" was coined to replace it?

I thought it was because every cold day people would ask "where's the global warming you're all talking about??". And yes, because it's more accurate (some places may well get cooler locally as the wind patterns shift). But primarily (I think) because the labels are more about discourse with the lay public rather than among scientists actually doing the work (who would use more specific and accurate terminology for the thing they are studying).

Jose

[Angua]

June too soon
July stand by
August a must
September remember
After October, it's all over

However, I have known a few hurricanes to go into November. Alberto didn't make hurricane but still a named storm this year, and we haven't even made June yet. NHC website starts in June (does special advisements if earlier), can't remember what time it closes.

[Giant Speck]

The Northern Atlantic hurricane season typically ends on 30 November. There have certainly been cyclones which have formed after that date, particularly during the crazily busy 2005 season where we ran out of names and had to start using Greek letters.

[Sableagle]

June too soon
July stand by
August a must
September remember
After October, it's all over

100 extra days of average hurricane squeezed into those 153 days sounds impossible. A longer season and more energy per storm seem more plausible.

The weather site I used to like have updated their privacy policy so it now takes 5 days to decide which adverts I'm not going to see before I can get to the weather I want to check.

Here we go: Nassau, the Bahamas, April, May, June and July last year:


... and in 2005:


There aren't many degrees between the bit before "too soon" and "stand by," there. I know that's not quite in the hurricane basin but I didn't want to search for deep-sea weather buoy data.

[addams]

It strikes me that "global warming" is a bit of a misnomer.

Isn't that why the term "climate change" was coined to replace it?

I thought it was because every cold day people would ask "where's the global warming you're all talking about??". And yes, because it's more accurate (some places may well get cooler locally as the wind patterns shift). But primarily (I think) because the labels are more about discourse with the lay public rather than among scientists actually doing the work (who would use more specific and accurate terminology for the thing they are studying).

Jose

Nay....It's not about, just, communicating to lay people and the U.S. Congress (people that Should be professionals.)
The cause is a warming of our atmosphere, the effect is Climate Change.

The Jet Stream is Loopy, because the Arctic Air is not cold enough to keep the Polar Vortex high over the poles and in a tight circle.
I Love the way the English BBC explained it. They used a Cup of Tea to illustrate. They took the Cup of Tea off their site.

This is a reasonable explanation.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/37907724

I'm sorry.
It's not nearly as cute as a Cup of Tea.

[addams]

Oops.
My internet is acting very slow and jerky.
I made a duplicate post. Please, excuse me

[Sableagle]

Well, the possible side-effets of myocardial infarction, stroke and aseptic meningitis (yeah, that was there too but I didn't want to scare everyone too badly, eh?) haven't materialised, but the possible side-effect of nausea show up if I walk 100m. In theory, I can go to the doctor's office here and get a certificate of "too messed up to be hoiking 20kg sacks of diced onion around" printed out. I just don't fancy walking that far and back again.

Also: still ow.

[Angua]

June too soon
July stand by
August a must
September remember
After October, it's all over

100 extra days of average hurricane squeezed into those 153 days sounds impossible. A longer season and more energy per storm seem more plausible.

The weather site I used to like have updated their privacy policy so it now takes 5 days to decide which adverts I'm not going to see before I can get to the weather I want to check.

Here we go: Nassau, the Bahamas, April, May, June and July last year:


... and in 2005:


There aren't many degrees between the bit before "too soon" and "stand by," there. I know that's not quite in the hurricane basin but I didn't want to search for deep-sea weather buoy data.

There are no actual hurricanes in those graphs?? So wouldn't really expect to see a difference. The weather is basically the same unless there's a storm heading through. Temperature is 80F, mild northnortheast winds, chance of scattered showers, average 76% humidity.

[Sableagle]

Nassau, the Bahamas, April, May, June and July last year:

Spoiler:

... and in 2005:

There aren't many degrees between the bit before "too soon" and "stand by," there. I know that's not quite in the hurricane basin but I didn't want to search for deep-sea weather buoy data.

There are no actual hurricanes in those graphs?? So wouldn't really expect to see a difference. The weather is basically the same unless there's a storm heading through. Temperature is 80F, mild northnortheast winds, chance of scattered showers, average 76% humidity.

2005 was just a little bit warmer and had quite a hurricane season. More months:

Spoiler:

In 2017:


... and in 2005:

Check out late August and early September in 2005. Hot, with big drops but quick reheat after each. Scary time to be in Louisiana.
Of course, that's ... you know they're working in Fahrenheit really when you see the °C scale goes "4, 10, 16, 21, 27, 32, 38" ... mostly 84 °F to 89 °F rather than mostly 84 °F to 86 °F so we're looking at 3 °F hotter on hot days and that's 1.67 °C not just the 1 °C we were talking about, so the comparison may be a little unfair. It's also the comparison between the new record holder and the previous record holder for hyperactive and destructive hurricane season. It may be better to compare with 2015, a below average season:

Spoiler:

In 2017:


... and in 2015:


... and in 2005:

There we can see that in that same period, in a much less active season, the temperature was mostly 83 °F to 85 °F. Again, this isn't right out in the hurricane-forming basin, but it's somewhere close enough to be related, I think. Anyway, it was a little cooler than 2015, so let's call it a 2 °C difference.
Luckily, nobody's talking about a 2 °C difference any more, so it's not going to get "as much worse than 2017 as 2017 was than 2015."

[Sableagle]

There's an awful lot of the mantle.

[somitomi]

About five minutes ago I watched a dashcam video of an RV rolling over due to a tyre blowout and learned that it's somehow possible to tow a car behind an RV like this:

The only question none of the articles titled "Three ways to tow a car behind your RV" managed to answer satisfactorily is how the car's steering works with these towbars. Are these cars outfitted with some mechanical linkage between the towbar and the steering system? How does that work?

[Thesh]

Wheels are allowed to turn freely. Nothing special needs to be done.

[somitomi]

Wheels are allowed to turn freely. Nothing special needs to be done.

But then how does such a setup negotiate small radii? Do the front wheels turn to follow the RV due to something (maybe the caster angle?) or do they just have a large side-slip in tight corners like the wheels of a semi-trailer? This article says the steering should be unlocked so that it can follow the RV, so it seems like the former is the case. The idea of towing a car without any active steering still seems weird, even though this kind of towbar isn't the kind of towbar I initially thought of.
I've honestly never heard of anyone doing this on this side of the Atlantic, why is that?

[Thesh]

I don't know the exact physics of it, but my understanding is that the wheels follow the path of least resistance, and that means rolling, which means turning. Not sure about Europe, but it appears that towing four wheels down is not preferred, and you can't really back up (probably a bigger problem in Europe, with the narrower streets):

http://blog.goodsam.com/towing-4-down-vs-dollytrailer

[addams]

Interesting....
I have this problem in my life.
Lucille, my little car, must be towed.

She has a locked up brake on her front passenger side.
She is parked nose into a building. (crap!)

(Ahhh...) I can't think about it. It's, just. too, too much.
Someone with a tow truck and experience will tell me what to do.

It will be another week before anything can be done.
I'm fine. I have a 'loner' rig. It's a fun, Huge Old SUV.

still....How the Hell are we going to move her?

[Sableagle]

Using a device which, while professionally designed and made and very sturdy and so on, is pretty much a jack on a skateboard.

[heuristically_alone]

I see RVs nearly every week towing cars like that.

[addams]

Using a device which, while professionally designed and made and very sturdy and so on, is pretty much a jack on a skateboard.

Yes.
That will very likely be the answer.
When it happens, I will let you know.

[SecondTalon]

But then how does such a setup negotiate small radii?

It doesn't.

Most roads from the interstate to the RV Park allow for wide turns.

[somitomi]

But then how does such a setup negotiate small radii?

It doesn't.

Most roads from the interstate to the RV Park allow for wide turns.

You Americans and your incredibly spacious infrastructure...

I don't know the exact physics of it, but my understanding is that the wheels follow the path of least resistance, and that means rolling, which means turning. Not sure about Europe, but it appears that towing four wheels down is not preferred, and you can't really back up (probably a bigger problem in Europe, with the narrower streets)

Maybe, motorhomes themselves are much smaller in Europe.

[Sableagle]

You Americans and your incredibly spacious infrastructure...

Mmm-hm.

England: 53.01M people in 243,610 km² = 217.6 people per km²

Hungary: 9.818M people in 93,030 km² = 105.5 people per km²

USA: 325.7M people in 9.834 million km² = 33.12 people per km²

... and here are the turning from main road to minor road and the gate of a caravan park near Exmoor, in the south-west.

We tend to have to work around a maze of twisty little country lanes, all different.

[poxic]

Random thought of the day: modern conveniences. I'm sitting at the computer when I hear an unexpected noise from the bathroom over thataway. A moment's thought leads me to find a search engine, type in "why do toilets sometimes flush themselves", then learn about warped flush valve gaskets and how to diagnose/replace one.

...

I gave Dad a Father's Day card this year with a joke about how I might not have learned much from him (e.g. fixing toidies or cars) but I sure did learn to ask him to do it for me. *ba dum tish* His response was "I haven't had to help you with anything for quite a while now."

He said it like he was proud of me for being a grownup, or maybe a bit nostalgic for the past, but now I wonder how much of that independence is Google-based.

[PAstrychef]

So you find the info you need from google, instead of a book. That’s still independent.

[poxic]

Books required visits to libraries and such. Being a minor trivia (or household repair) deity used to require more work.

[Diemo]

Everything used to require more work.

We have a bunch of different hire companies here, where you unlock the item with your smartphone. I've only used the car, but there are bikes, cars, scooters, and probably others. Previously this would have been impossible - there is so much technology behind theses rentals. But it is just normal now.